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EFL Championship 23/24 - Relegation Battle


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That time of year when so many teams are in contention for the survival fight. One win may do for some teams, others need a lot more...

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Rotherham are pretty much relegated already.

Then 9 teams battle it out to avoid being the other 2 to be relegated. And only 8 points separate them. 

QPR's resurgence under Cifuentes has been impressive. And Sheff Weds' have found themselves in the fight after hiring Ruhl. Plymouth's managerial changes seem to have hit them hard, and one of them is now at Stoke who are also in the mix. Blackburn should be safe if Szmodics can keep scoring. Have included Swansea based on the teams they play, as they could easily get dragged into the mix even more...

Key games coming up between now and last day of the season:

6th April
Huddersfield vs Millwall
QPR vs Sheff Weds

9th April
Plymouth vs QPR

10th April
Swansea vs Stoke

13th April
Sheff Weds vs Stoke

20th April
Huddersfield vs Swansea
Stoke vs Plymouth

21st April
Blackburn vs Sheff Weds

27th April
Huddersfield vs Birmingham
Millwall vs Plymouth

4th May
Swansea vs Millwall

 

 

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13 hours ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Swansea won't go down, but it'd be funny as fuck if they did.

It’s funny what happens. When we lost to Fulham we were being called bottle jobs by Swansea, even the season we went up their fans still expected us to bottle promotion, especially as we were both in a fight for automatics for a while.

Then we beat them comfortably in the play-off final and since then they’ve been in disarray whilst we’ve enjoyed 3 great seasons in the Premier League.

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Rotherham are gone.

I fear for Plymouth, it's just not happening for them. I was certain Warnock was going there when I saw they had sacked their manager, but they have refused that option. You'd have fancied him to keep them up, not so sure now, think they'll regret not going that way and drop.

Last spot for me is a toss up between Wednesday, Huddersfield and Birmingham.

Always find it humourous how terrible Wednesday are but how massive they think they are. And I really don't give a jot about Huddersfield who absolutely despise us.

But being honest, and I think many may agree here, if you're wanting poetuc justice, you're wanting Birmingham to drop. It'd be the perfect ending to shitting on your own doorstep. Firing a manager when you are in the playoffs to getting relegated. Fingers crossed.

 

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3 hours ago, Danny said:

It’s funny what happens. When we lost to Fulham we were being called bottle jobs by Swansea, even the season we went up their fans still expected us to bottle promotion, especially as we were both in a fight for automatics for a while.

Then we beat them comfortably in the play-off final and since then they’ve been in disarray whilst we’ve enjoyed 3 great seasons in the Premier League.

I watched that and thought it was hilarious. No shots on target if memory serves right. Then they slagged off Cooper, who then got Forest promoted.

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2 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

I watched that and thought it was hilarious. No shots on target if memory serves right. Then they slagged off Cooper, who then got Forest promoted.

They were such a negative team and if you got into a dogfight with them they'd win. But if you could just outplay them, different story...

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As expected, Rotherham's relegation was confirmed after they lost to Plymouth.

Plymouth were one of only 3 teams in this bunch that won. Sheff Weds & Huddersfield also winning means Swansea get dragged in, as now only 5 points separate 15th to 23rd:

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Next round of games:
Sheff Weds vs Norwich
Birmingham vs Cardiff
Preston vs Huddersfield
Millwall 
vs Leicester
Plymouth vs QPR
Swansea vs Stoke

Bristol City vs Blackburn

 

Two key games there at Plymouth and Swansea where any win for any of the 4 sides will do wonders for their survival hopes...

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Taking Swansea back out of the equation after their resounding win over Stoke. Birmingham dropped a place as Sheff Weds rescued a point to go level with Huddersfield. Millwall picked up a valuable 3 points and were the only team in the bottom 9 to pick up 3 points, precious at this stage!

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Again, with such small gaps in points, if at all, it seems likely goal-difference could play a part. Plymouth's is far superior to Huddersfield & Sheff Weds, whilst Birmingham and Stoke's are the same, and only 1 goal separates QPR/Millwall/Blackburn.

Next Games:
Birmingham vs 
Coventry
Sheff Weds vs Stoke
Bristol City vs Huddersfield
Plymouth vs Leicester
Leeds vs Blackburn
Millwall vs Cardiff
Hull vs QPR

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More twists and turns than a helter skelter. This relegation battle gets more interesting as the weeks go by - as Plymouth and Blackburn secured 3 points each over title-chasers Leicester and Leeds respectively. Millwall all but guaranteed safety after a win over Cardiff. Stoke rescued what could be a priceless draw at Sheff Weds, and Birmingham picked up a convincing win over rivals Coventry. QPR were the only team that lost which speaks volumes about the unpredictability of this league at this stage of the season!

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Next Games
Blackburn vs Sheff Weds
Stoke vs Plymouth
QPR vs 
Preston
Rotherham vs Birmingham
Huddersfield vs Swansea

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This weekend feels like a must win for Sheffield Wednesday. I'd feel a bit bad for Danny Rohl, as given it took them 13 odd games to get there first win, he's done a very good job with them.

I reckon it will be the current three that go down.

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Massive win for Wednesday at Blackburn.  Out of the drop zone for the first time this year. With Huddersfield and Birmingham playing each other next week, a draw woukd be great, Wednesday may only need to win one of their last two to stay up.

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9 minutes ago, Redcanuck said:

Massive win for Wednesday at Blackburn.  Out of the drop zone for the first time this year. With Huddersfield and Birmingham playing each other next week, a draw woukd be great, Wednesday may only need to win one of their last two to stay up.

Classic Blackburn/Championship. Win away at Leeds, lose at home to a relegation rival. 

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The penultimate weekend is upon us. Mathematically, the remaining two spots can't be decided this weekend because Huddersfield & Birmingham face each other. Neither of those teams can confirm survival, but the teams directly above them can do a whole world of good in improving chances of survival, or even confirming it. Lots of permutations to consider!

- Stoke and QPR would just need a point if Huddersfield win/draw, or a win if Birmingham win 

- Blackburn need to win and hope Birmingham don't win to ensure survival. A draw is likely to also be good enough if Huddersfield win, due to the superior goal difference

- Plymouth have to win and hope Huddersfield win to confirm survival

- Birmingham are relegated if they lose and Sheff Weds & Plymouth win & Blackburn draw/win

- Huddersfield are relegated if they lose and Sheff Weds draw/win. If Huddersfield draw, they will be relegated if Plymouth draw/win & Sheff Weds win. 

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Next Games:
QPR vs Leeds
Southampton vs Stoke
Blackburn vs Coventry
Millwall vs Plymouth
Sheff Weds
 vs West Brom
Huddersfield vs Birmingham

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Yeah, Wednesday have done well in fairness, credit where it's due. 50pts looked a long way off to them when Rohl took over.

They can now look forward to the Sheffield derby again. Two big games for this level.

Huddersfield have been pathetic. As per usual, they played against us like it was a Cup Final, and then went extremely flakey. I will never understand how a side can show so much fight and determination for one fixture then capitulate against some absolutely bang avearage teams. They can gladly go.

I think Birmingham might get a result next week. It helps them Norwich are as good as up bar any freak scores where as I think Plymouth will be hard pushed to get a win v Hull who have something to play for still.

We all want Brum to go though right? 

Edited by Lucas
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20 minutes ago, Lucas said:

They can now look forward to the Sheffield derby again. Two big games for this level

They're not fully safe yet. Just a point extra needed. 

21 minutes ago, Lucas said:

We all want Brum to go though right?

Yep! 

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Rotherham has been gone for a long time and Huddersfield with their poor goal difference is done as well.   Wednesday and Blackburn could go down if they lose and the two or three teams below them win, but I think it's between Plymouth and Birmingham.  Both are playing teams in good form who haven't lost for awhile, Plymouth has Hull at home who can still make the play offs if West Brom lose, and Birmingham has Norwich at home who really don't have anything to play for.  I think the table will flip back and forth a few times next Saturday,  but might well finish the way it looks today.  Which would mean Birmingham is the third team to drop.

Edited by Redcanuck
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Five into 2 doesn't go...we come down to the final day of the season and as ever, drama becks in the Championship fight for survival.

Sheff Weds were the only side in the bottom 5 to win, and it was much needed to gain ground & pull away. They only need 1 point to survive, as do Blackburn. Then it's between Plymouth & Birmingham for the final spot and it may well come down to goal difference in Argyle's favour. However, the same cannot be said for Huddersfield as they would need an almost impossible swing of 15 goals to go their way as Plymouth lose in order to survive. 

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Next Games:
Leicester vs Blackburn
Sunderland vs Sheff Weds
Plymouth vs Hull
Birmingham vs Norwich
Ipswich vs Huddersfield

Permutations:
- Blackburn and Sheff Weds just need 1 point to survive, regardless of other results
- Plymouth need to win to guarantee survival. A draw is only good enough if Birmingham draw/lose
- Birmingham can draw and hope Plymouth lose by 4. A win will be enough if Plymouth draw/lose or one of Sheff Weds/Blackburn lose
 

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This is some spectacular fall from Birmingham. The sad thing is the bad will towards Wayne Rooney could have been prevented if they just waited to the next international break to sack a man they never wanted in charge given the fixture turn they were embarking on.

The good thing for the fans is these owners seem willing to learn, are making essential changes with the stadium and will stay around to get them out of League One. Under the previous regimes you would have really feared for the long term health of the club if they entered the third tier.

I do hope Plymouth stay up, that's a club with untapped potential when you consider the size of the catchment area. Whilst the last managerial appointment didn't work, the people that run the club don't seem to get much wrong. Hopefully the reinvest the Whittaker money well and really push on next season.

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