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Dan's Tipping Game - 2024/25


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On 19/09/2024 at 15:50, RandoEFC said:

Screenshot_20240919_154634_Chrome.thumb.jpg.a5770f5a6251bf09169ee96e5af193c6.jpg

£10 > £22.60

I expect Brighton and Aston Villa to dominate their respective games this weekend. I don't rate Wolves this season and I don't think Forest will manage a second spawny away win in a row. Tempting to go for Win instead of Win or Draw on both but my strategy at the moment is to keep the odds around Evens and win little and often so playing it safer. 

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Fucking hell Raya, you didn't waste enough time 🙄

On the bright side I tried to deposit £50 into bet365 to put this bet on for real but for some reason my deposit failed twice and then I gave up xD

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On 19/09/2024 at 04:38, Dan said:

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Honestly just the less said the better about this week. Better late than never? I doubt it. This was a bad week and nothing sums it up more than the only positive mover in the table being the one player who didn't play.

Luck out all over the place. @Smiley Culture stung despite a 2 goal lead after 6 minutes. @RandoEFC's pick against his own team flying in but the one in favour of his rivals team dying in front of us. Isak subbed at half time and Gordon totally anonymous for the most part. Strasbourg bottle it for @...Dan. @Stan not a million miles off on either pick but both ended up losing. Think the closest this week was actually the longest shot in @CaaC (John) who is at least on the board for having a winning selection, but his long shot of Ipswich falls just short. Think it's about the most infuriating thing in football betting when you back a long shot winner and they draw.

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Oh have I been waiting for this. But no, I really have. I've forgotten to update it again, which is pretty mad given what took place.

I'll work upwards this week. @Stan's double doesn't quite make it. Pretty self explanatory with the results but could definitely see the logic in backing a heavy win in the Eredivisie. @...Dan was on for a solid profit having picked a cracking winner in Belgium, but ended up blowing it by following it up with a Raya card in the Arsenal game - something I actually looked at backing myself at the time but left it because I wanted bigger odds. I think that was pretty unlucky to lose really given the way the game panned out.

Little story last season from betting on a goalkeeper to be carded was I had one when we played I think it was Rotherham at home. I had this run where I kept backing the opposition goalkeeper to be booked and we'd score within about 5 minutes meaning that the bet was likely to lose, but at least we scored. Against Rotherham, it happened again, yet he ends up bringing Vardy down for a penalty and gets booked anyway xD was the ultimate double win.

@CaaC (John) got what he paid for. Leeds win at a canter as expected. Portsmouth did lead at Burnley but ended up losing in injury time.

@RandoEFC with a good Premier League double but doesn't change position, he overtakes @Pyfish but is passed by somebody.

Yes I am pretty proud of that one. I normally think it's a bit risky to take draws, but I've been whinging for weeks about how we'd draw 1-1 with Everton so I thought I had to take it given the pretty juicy price. Juventus v Napoli just absolutely reeked of it for me. Two teams where I think both would be pretty content to just not lose the game. Very easy to say this now but I think if I had to predict scores for those two I'd have gone 1-1 and 0-0 - and a £10 double on that would've returned £560! But I'll take this win. My biggest by a mile on here. Forgot to back it for real though annoyingly.

First time I've been in profit in 51 weeks of playing this game. Here's to more!

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My first pick this week is Gabriel anytime tomorrow. Don't usually do goalscorers but think despite the fact he's scored in the last two weeks, which you would think will bring in his price, I think 6/1 is actually quite good. Arsenal will feast on corners tomorrow and I don't think we're savvy enough to handle it at all. I doubt that if you played the game 7 times he'd only score on one occasion.

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6 hours ago, ...Dan said:

A 95th minute Lyon winner gets me a win.

I'm extremely torn on this. Antwerp got called off at 4-0 in the 75th minute. Bookies have been settling it as void which is complete bullshit. I'm tempted to give the win, but I don't know if I can, what are we thinking?

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I'm giving the win - Antwerp's game has been settled as a 5-0 win for some reason so you're having it. Not run the numbers but reckon that's stuck us into nearly breakeven. Three very decent wins in here in the last week.

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20 minutes ago, Dan said:

I'm extremely torn on this. Antwerp got called off at 4-0 in the 75th minute. Bookies have been settling it as void which is complete bullshit. I'm tempted to give the win, but I don't know if I can, what are we thinking?

Definitely give it given the scoreline and minute! 

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1 minute ago, Stan said:

Definitely give it given the scoreline and minute! 

I think given the 5-0 has actually been awarded - apparently due to Beerschot fans getting the game called off (xD) so I'm giving it even if those wanker bookmakers won't.

Table's going to be interesting this week.

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On 25/09/2024 at 04:32, Dan said:

image.thumb.png.5799b6339637267ce1ebf623214c5597.png

Oh have I been waiting for this. But no, I really have. I've forgotten to update it again, which is pretty mad given what took place.

I'll work upwards this week. @Stan's double doesn't quite make it. Pretty self explanatory with the results but could definitely see the logic in backing a heavy win in the Eredivisie. @...Dan was on for a solid profit having picked a cracking winner in Belgium, but ended up blowing it by following it up with a Raya card in the Arsenal game - something I actually looked at backing myself at the time but left it because I wanted bigger odds. I think that was pretty unlucky to lose really given the way the game panned out.

Little story last season from betting on a goalkeeper to be carded was I had one when we played I think it was Rotherham at home. I had this run where I kept backing the opposition goalkeeper to be booked and we'd score within about 5 minutes meaning that the bet was likely to lose, but at least we scored. Against Rotherham, it happened again, yet he ends up bringing Vardy down for a penalty and gets booked anyway xD was the ultimate double win.

@CaaC (John) got what he paid for. Leeds win at a canter as expected. Portsmouth did lead at Burnley but ended up losing in injury time.

@RandoEFC with a good Premier League double but doesn't change position, he overtakes @Pyfish but is passed by somebody.

Yes I am pretty proud of that one. I normally think it's a bit risky to take draws, but I've been whinging for weeks about how we'd draw 1-1 with Everton so I thought I had to take it given the pretty juicy price. Juventus v Napoli just absolutely reeked of it for me. Two teams where I think both would be pretty content to just not lose the game. Very easy to say this now but I think if I had to predict scores for those two I'd have gone 1-1 and 0-0 - and a £10 double on that would've returned £560! But I'll take this win. My biggest by a mile on here. Forgot to back it for real though annoyingly.

First time I've been in profit in 51 weeks of playing this game. Here's to more!

image.thumb.png.524fc65f73ca2946b1769e0ff26ee3c1.png

I've checked the stats and can confirm this is the best week in tipping game history. It's the first time we've ever collectively broken £100 profit and we've done it with absolute comfort as well, largely owing to two very handy wins.

I couldn't add to last weeks win - but I still sort of retain that there was good value in the bet I took at 6/1 with Arsenal registering 17 corners and Gabriel himself racking up an xG of 0.49, so a bit unlucky really. Still, at least on the plus side Leicester managed to actually keep the goals out and stop everyone else scoring, eh. Oh wait. Of course we didn't.

@RandoEFC rises to 2nd in the table with a second straight win, given a bit of a scare in the unlikeliest of ways as Arsenal nearly didn't win the game, but the corners as stated hit 17 with 6 of those coming in the first half.

I have been through @...Dan's bet and was given a dilemma. I've asked about and it does appear some bookies are still settling any Antwerp bet as a void, but I think in these circumstances it's fair to award the win given they have actually been given a 5-0 win anyway. Beerschot's fans pyro'd and got the game called off at 4-0 with 15 left and I've seen this in Belgium before where this seems to default to a 5-0 loss for the club in question. Probably not a bad way of doing it in all honesty. The real clincher here though was Lyon picking up an injury time winner, for his biggest win of the season and the third biggest of the season.

The highlight of the week however is @Stan who's bet builder contained so many things that I just simply had to type "Bet Builder" rather than all of the small details. A great pick though, and the biggest single priced odds winner of the season so far. Benfica had an early scare against Gil Vicente but ended up smashing them 5-1. A perfect outcome here, and a game that has contributed to me winning loads of money via acca freeze abuse as well as Benfica landed me one accumulator and Gil Vicente's goal started another. More details on this if anyone is interested.

This leaves @CaaC (John) as the only player to play multiple weeks and not yet register a winner. Both selections out again and he's cut quite adrift at the bottom now while 2nd-6th have all become quite bunched together following this week. A decent win from him soon and I think we're in quite sound profit as a collective, which hasn't happened once since playing.

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11 hours ago, Dan said:

This leaves @CaaC (John) as the only player to play multiple weeks and not yet register a winner. Both selections out again and he's cut quite adrift at the bottom now while 2nd-6th have all become quite bunched together following this week. A decent win from him soon and I think we're in quite sound profit as a collective, which hasn't happened once since playing.

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