US 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Race

[Panflute]

Right now, this seems like the only likely scenario other than a Bernie landslide:

It’s this line of thinking that’s led some anti-Bernie Democrats to conclude that their best hope is for Bloomberg to start spending tens or hundreds of millions of dollars on a negative ad campaign against the senator. That would presumably drive Sanders’s support down, but not necessarily position any of his rivals to pick up enough delegates to mount a serious challenge, especially if no one leaves the race. Nonetheless, a Bloomberg-funded barrage might keep Sanders’ ultimate delegate plurality lower than he’d like.

“I do think there is a difference between winning 35 percent of the delegates and winning 45 percent of the delegates, and that’s basically where we are right now: is there going to be someone like Obama was in ’08 — not in a majority, but so clearly ahead that it’s a foregone conclusion? Or a muddle in the delegates, like the state results?” asked Addisu Demissie, a longtime Democratic strategist and Cory Booker’s 2020 campaign manager. “That’s the question.”

No candidate is publicly admitting that they’re hoping for a muddle — each still professes to see a path to victory. But some candidate’s aides are still wondering, under their breath, whether they should be actively preparing to compete on the second ballot at the convention in Milwaukee. A second ballot could occur if Sanders’s final delegate total too small to carry him to the nomination on the first ballot. Bloomberg’s aides have quietly started wooing elected officials and other super delegates with this specific scenario explicitly in mind.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/why-bernies-rivals-are-all-stubbornly-staying-in-the-race.html

[Inverted]

On 22/02/2020 at 17:32, Azeem said:

Is there rigging in US presidential elections ?

Only in the sense that American democracy is constitutionally rigged to prevent a popular movement from disturbing the economic status quo, just as the founders intended.

[Inverted]

On 22/02/2020 at 12:13, Harry said:

I think that's the wrong conclusion to draw. People were profoundly apathetic about voting for her specifically because:

Effective character assassination against her for a decade by GOP

A general narrative that it was her time

The fact that so many other politicians didn't dip their toe into the water and stood back. People like to have choice.

The fact that even in the previous election they preferred Obama over her.

Many other things I'm forgetting

These things will apply to every moderate candidate.

The GOP will assassinate any opposition leader's character. 

The narrative of entitlement likewise applies, because every moderate candidates talks about the need to return to civility and moderation. They run on the idea that Trump has been an aberration, and that the natural course of things is to just go back to how they've been for the last 20 years. That is the entitlement that people despise, and it doesn't matter if it's Hillary or a political newcomer like Buttigieg. 

Moderates run on a platform of "We're sensible, middle-of-the-road people. We're competent and polite. You can trust us. Let's return to normalcy and civility. You don't need any radical transformation in your life". People are apathetic about it because this is what they've had for decades, and this apathy and skepticism about politics directly led to Trump. 

You cannot pose Trump and moderate Dems as some kind of meaningful opposition - they are part and parcel of the same phenomenon. Trump is the consequence of liberal centrism, which elevates the persona as the point of attachment for political loyalty, whilst denying people substantial policy choices. People start to realise they're being screwed, get angry as hell, and then it's only a matter of time before someone with name recognition and financial muscle realises they can win on a platform of "trust me, politics is a sham, fuck government". 

You can either channel populist energy into rage and nostalgia like Trump, or you can channel it into a radical vision of a better life - there is no option to return to business as usual. The genie is out of the bottle. 

 

[Inverted]

Bernie: "We should admit we have overthrown democratic governments"

Buttigieg: " We don't live in the past". 

 

It might be the past for America, but it's not the past in Chile when people take to the streets to protest their right-wing government, or in Iran where they are still struggling for meaningful democracy, for relatives of people butchered by the Contras in Nicaragua, or in Argentina or Uruguay where relatives still wonder what happened to their disappeared loved ones and officials still benefit from immunity from prosecution. 

What a vile, sniveling ghoul. 

 

[Azeem]

Is this real ?

[God is Haaland]

8 hours ago, Azeem said:

Is this real ?

Mate, they are basiacally the DNC's dedicated propaganda tool and on top that they take money from the pharmaceutical industry if I remember correctly. Their bias was already blatantly obvious when Bernie ran against Clinton.

[Azeem]

2 hours ago, God is Haaland said:

Mate, they are basiacally the DNC's dedicated propaganda tool and on top that they take money from the pharmaceutical industry if I remember correctly. Their bias was already blatantly obvious when Bernie ran against Clinton.

Don't care about the bias but I'm more amazed at comparing him with corona that's the kind of headlines you see in let's say underdeveloped countries

[Inverted]

1 hour ago, Azeem said:

Don't care about the bias but I'm more amazed at comparing him with corona that's the kind of headlines you see in let's say underdeveloped countries

The US is an underdeveloped country. Having a large pool of outrageously wealthy individuals doesn't mean it's not a barbaric, backwards country. 

[Harry]

Pete Buttigieg ends his presidential campaign, creating some opportunities for consolidation in the moderate end of things.

[Azeem]

How much big of a veteran vote bank will Trump have after he has finalised the deal in Afghanistan ? and American troops will be leaving in 14 months, considering many were calling to end this endless war which has taken a huge toll on American military.

[Inverted]

Seems like the centrists are going to coalesce around Biden after South Carolina. 

[Panflute]

Buttigieg out and Steyer out. It'll be interesting to see how much candidates dropping out will influence the polls, as I remember reading a while ago that Bernie is highly favored as a second-choice vote for multiple other candidates. I don't think it will matter much for Super Tuesday though, as Buttigieg didn't poll high after his initial win, and Steyer has been irrelevant from the start. There's also the fact that several Super Tuesday states vote in advance, so last-minute changes in the candidate field have no effect there.

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 29/02/2020 at 23:07, Azeem said:

Is this real ?

Probably. CNN and MSNBC (who the right like to say are the two big examples of left-wing media) are absolutely frothing at the mouth with how well Bernie has done. MSNBC is owned by Comcast, who's made pretty substantial donations to the RNC - so their whole left wing act is simply to capture a left wing news watching public as their market. But they push very centrist policies. CNN's owned by Warner Media, who donate pretty heavily to moderates of both parties.

Both are pushing pro-corporate agendas and largely want the American status quo from the pre-Trump era back, but they don't mind Trump being president either as it means massive tax breaks for the execs (and journalists working there) as well as high ratings because Trump dominates a media cycle because he's an idiot who can't avoid making anything a scandal. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, Panflute said:

Buttigieg out and Steyer out. It'll be interesting to see how much candidates dropping out will influence the polls, as I remember reading a while ago that Bernie is highly favored as a second-choice vote for multiple other candidates. I don't think it will matter much for Super Tuesday though, as Buttigieg didn't poll high after his initial win, and Steyer has been irrelevant from the start. There's also the fact that several Super Tuesday states vote in advance, so last-minute changes in the candidate field have no effect there.

Steyer was pretty similar to Warren and Bernie policy-wise... I'd imagine many of his supporters (although he didn't really have all that many tbh) would fall behind those 2 candidates. Buttigieg was basically just a young & gay Biden, but it seems many of his supporters were actually backing him based on identity politics rather than the policies he stands for (which I think is painfully stupid, vote based on policy rather than a candidates sexuality FFS) - those that vote on policy would probably turn to Biden/the woman with the wobbly voice. Those that vote on other shite might turn to anyone else - I'd be inclined that those that were going to vote for Buttigieg because he was gay might be more inclined to vote for a woman now, because I think don't think those people really know/think too much about policy and are just thinking about the identity politics of the race.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Amy Klobuchar (also referred to in here by me as "wobbly voice woman") has ended her bid.

[Panflute]

42 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Steyer was pretty similar to Warren and Bernie policy-wise... I'd imagine many of his supporters (although he didn't really have all that many tbh) would fall behind those 2 candidates. Buttigieg was basically just a young & gay Biden, but it seems many of his supporters were actually backing him based on identity politics rather than the policies he stands for (which I think is painfully stupid, vote based on policy rather than a candidates sexuality FFS) - those that vote on policy would probably turn to Biden/the woman with the wobbly voice. Those that vote on other shite might turn to anyone else - I'd be inclined that those that were going to vote for Buttigieg because he was gay might be more inclined to vote for a woman now, because I think don't think those people really know/think too much about policy and are just thinking about the identity politics of the race.

I remember even Biden and Warren voters backing Bernie as a second option. Well, less surprising perhaps for Warren as she's closer to Bernie policy-wise, but Bernie and Biden have much less in common. It'll be interesting to see what happens, as there is much talk of 'moderate' Democrats coalescing around Biden, but if it truly becomes a two-horse race, Bernie might just end up benefitting even more.

8 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Amy Klobuchar (also referred to in here by me as "wobbly voice woman") has ended her bid.

God, I feel sorry for her staffers. I bet staplers are already flying through the office.

[Inverted]

The pattern is clear. The centre will rally around Biden, and Warren despite her embarrassing numbers will hold herself out as a "progressive" alternative to Bernie until the end. 

Thats the only realistic chance they have of stopping him. 

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Inverted said:

The pattern is clear. The centre will rally around Biden, and Warren despite her embarrassing numbers will hold herself out as a "progressive" alternative to Bernie until the end. 

Thats the only realistic chance they have of stopping him. 

Don't forget Bloomberg. His intervention to the race and big spending in Super Tuesday states has split the democratic moderate vote.

538.com primary model is now showing a 17% chance of Bernie winning a majority of delegates, with Biden 14%, Bloomberg and Warren at <0.1% and noone winning a majority at 70%.

[Harry]

Strong endorsements for Biden from Buttigieg and Klobuchar in Texas tonight making the previously divided moderate field now United under the Biden banner ahead of Super Tuesday voting.

A different and probably more effective approach than the GOP had in 2016 with Rubio, Bush, Christie, Kasich and Cruz.

[Inverted]

Is Buttigieg doing a Texas accent or am I going totally insane.

[Panflute]

14 hours ago, Inverted said:

The pattern is clear. The centre will rally around Biden, and Warren despite her embarrassing numbers will hold herself out as a "progressive" alternative to Bernie until the end. 

Thats the only realistic chance they have of stopping him. 

It is really telling how Buttigieg dropped out and Warren didn't, even though Buttigieg has over 3 times the delegates that Warren has. Same goes for Klobuchar, who only has 1 delegate less than Warren.

They'll probably try to explain it away as a demographic issue (Buttigieg and Klobuchar couldn't attract minority voters to save their lives), but anyone with half a brain can see what's going on here.

Bloomberg is the wild card here, as he might still be able to put a dent in Biden's campaign.

[Inverted]

One thing I see being talked about is Biden and Trump facing off in a debate, and that both are apparently senile.

There's a difference between rambling, because it's in your interest to rapidly change topics from things you don't know about, and the Biden-esque form of rambling where he literally doesn't seem to know what the last word he just said is. 

Joe Biden is in the early stages of some kind of dementia, I'm quite confident. I'm not saying because he stutters, I'm saying it because when off-script he frequently says entire series of sentences where I literally can't understand what he's even trying to talk about. 

I don't think Trump is senile, I think he's a very reckless and impulsive public speaker, and quite dumb to top it off, but he would annihilate Biden. 

Trump comes alive, and can even (hate to say) be quite quick-witted, when given an opportunity to mock someone's history and personal weaknesses. The more material you give Trump which isn't about the policy, the stronger his debating position is, and in that sense Biden is his ideal opponent. 

[Panflute]

1 hour ago, Inverted said:

One thing I see being talked about is Biden and Trump facing off in a debate, and that both are apparently senile.

There's a difference between rambling, because it's in your interest to rapidly change topics from things you don't know about, and the Biden-esque form of rambling where he literally doesn't seem to know what the last word he just said is. 

Joe Biden is in the early stages of some kind of dementia, I'm quite confident. I'm not saying because he stutters, I'm saying it because when off-script he frequently says entire series of sentences where I literally can't understand what he's even trying to talk about. 

I don't think Trump is senile, I think he's a very reckless and impulsive public speaker, and quite dumb to top it off, but he would annihilate Biden. 

Trump comes alive, and can even (hate to say) be quite quick-witted, when given an opportunity to mock someone's history and personal weaknesses. The more material you give Trump which isn't about the policy, the stronger his debating position is, and in that sense Biden is his ideal opponent. 

This is in addition to Biden having multiple relatives involved in shady shit, which means using the 'Trump is a nepotist' angle can heavily backfire for the Democrats if Biden is their candidate. With Sanders, Trump would be more forced to attack his ideas, which is generally not his strong suit.

[God is Haaland]

On 01/03/2020 at 18:48, Azeem said:

Don't care about the bias but I'm more amazed at comparing him with corona that's the kind of headlines you see in let's say underdeveloped countries

Why are you gay?

[Harry]

9 hours ago, Panflute said:

It is really telling how Buttigieg dropped out and Warren didn't, even though Buttigieg has over 3 times the delegates that Warren has. Same goes for Klobuchar, who only has 1 delegate less than Warren.

They'll probably try to explain it away as a demographic issue (Buttigieg and Klobuchar couldn't attract minority voters to save their lives), but anyone with half a brain can see what's going on here.

Bloomberg is the wild card here, as he might still be able to put a dent in Biden's campaign.

Warren is a bridge between Bernie and the moderates. She stands a chance of being a compromise candidate in a convention situation but she obviously is a lame duck in the current race