The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Azeem]

The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and B-52 bomber are already deployed along with the troops that are already stationed there i.e Qatar. White House is reviewing military plans that could see the deployment of up to 120,000 troops to the region although Trump is denying.

Arabs are in a full mode to have a war with Iran but for US it's not about Iran or Middle East in case if a war does happen but their main objective would be the containment of China and its growing influence in the Gulf. China is slowly displacing the dollar with its currency as the common unit in oil trade in the region a nightmare for US. 

You guys might not be so much bothered about it but the potential of something huge going off that will be spread out of the Gulf is there.

 

[Azeem]

The military industrial complex is so big that if they don't go in a war with somebody they will go into a second Great Depression.

Doubling US military buildup in the middle east and gulf region also means increasing defense bill and cost for oil rich Arab states.

[CaaC (John)+]

 

8 minutes ago, Azeem said:

You guys might not be so much bothered about it but the potential of something huge going off that will be spread out of the Gulf is there.

The Korean War, The Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and now Iran, a never-ending story buddy, I was born growing up with all these crisis and then served in the army on tours of duty so things like this I will take as another idiot like Trump pumping his gums trying to give people the impression that he is a big power broker but he will land on his face with an almighty thump sooner than later, just like Nixon. 

[Azeem]

16 minutes ago, CaaC - John said:

 

The Korean War, The Cuban Missile Crisis, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and now Iran, a never-ending story buddy, I was born growing up with all these crisis and then served in the army on tours of duty so things like this I will take as another idiot like Trump pumping his gums trying to give people the impression that he is a big power broker but he will land on his face with an almighty thump sooner than later, just like Nixon. 

I'd say if he does start a war to look like the tough guy than it will be enough to win the elections again.

[Azeem]

Xi Jinping says China is embarking on a 'new Long March,' signaling no end to trade war soon.

Although he didn't mention the U.S. or the ongoing trade war, the remarks are interpreted as a clear sign that China is not going to cave in anytime soon.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/21/xi-jinping-says-china-is-embarking-on-a-new-long-march-signaling-no-end-to-trade-war-soon.html

[nudge+]

The Trump administration is apparently also considering an "emergency exemption" that would allow it to make an arms shipment to Saudi Arabia without the approval of the Congress. Reagan did this in the 80s and both Bush presidents did it right before the 1991 Gulf War and 2003 Iraq war.

What a bunch of monumental cunts.

[Azeem]

3 minutes ago, nudge said:

The Trump administration is apparently also considering an "emergency exemption" that would allow it to make an arms shipment to Saudi Arabia without the approval of the Congress. Reagan did this in the 80s and both Bush presidents did it right before the 1991 Gulf War and 2003 Iraq war.

What a bunch of monumental cunts.

Gulf Arabs are gone mad they want a war with Iran at any cost though a bit of blame also falls on Iran as Iran has made life hell for it rivals through it proxies.

But as i said US main aim is to disturb the Chinese interest in the region which is why I'm worried because China won't just sit and watch its investments go down the drain. 

[Azeem]

Saudis and UAE are pressuring us to join the war against Iran, it will be a nightmare for us as a great chunk of our population is very partisan on the Saudi-Iran issue its like causing civil war in your own country 

[AMG]

1 hour ago, Azeem said:

Saudis and UAE are pressuring us to join the war against Iran, it will be a nightmare for us as a great chunk of our population is very partisan on the Saudi-Iran issue its like causing civil war in your own country 

 

Will they join you back in a war against India, though?

[Azeem]

57 minutes ago, Michael Simeonovitch said:

 

Will they join you back in a war against India, though?

No, and at state level we aren't going to either hopefully infact no country will military ally with someone in their war in present times unless you want to start a world war knowing how delicate the situation of the world is. 

But Iran and Saudis are very good at creating proxies in their area of influence and the sub continental inferiority complex towards the Arabs and Persians makes them easy mercenaries. In the 80s when we were having tensions with Iran their ambassador said to Zia that if you think Pakistan won't protect Iran's interest in the region than i can bring 70,000 militants on the streets of Pakistan in an hour  

Edited May 24, 2019 by Azeem

[Azeem]

UAE confirmed that Houthis attacked the Dubai airport using drones last year

UAE must be freaked out as the CCTV footage got out, they've been denying it ever since. Another incident like that can bring huge consequences

Edited May 24, 2019 by Azeem

[6666]

How dare Iran choose to set up their country in the middle of American military bases.

[Azeem]

1 minute ago, 6666 said:

How dare Iran choose to set up their country in the middle of American military bases.

But on the other side in the past 40 years Iran has never been attacked but all of its neighbourhood has been destroyed by wars and this time it will be the same

[Azeem]

On 24/05/2019 at 19:42, nudge said:

The Trump administration is apparently also considering an "emergency exemption" that would allow it to make an arms shipment to Saudi Arabia without the approval of the Congress. Reagan did this in the 80s and both Bush presidents did it right before the 1991 Gulf War and 2003 Iraq war.

What a bunch of monumental cunts.

Rumored to be valued at over $7 billion
makes you wonder if this whole new manufactured Iran crisis was meant to primarily grease the wheel for this and probably more to come Arm deals to these Arabs ? but it aint like they have the skill and the man power to use them with any great effect, that's why they want us to join. 

Its becoming more and more evident that the US is incapable of creating a big enough internal rift in order to unseat the current regime, so their next best move is to prop up another Sadaam like figure in the region and start a more serious conflict with Iran and their proxies in the region.

 I doubt Trump would be stupid enough to start a direct conflict with iran, unless he feels that his presidency is becoming clearly untenable otherwise.... 

Edited May 25, 2019 by Azeem

[Dr. Gonzo]

9 hours ago, Azeem said:

But on the other side in the past 40 years Iran has never been attacked but all of its neighbourhood has been destroyed by wars and this time it will be the same

Yeah and it wasn’t that long ago the US was arming Saddam Hussein with chemical weapons (when it was okay if Iraq had weapons of mass destruction lol) to use on Iran.

Unfortunately, I fully anticipate the US to go to war with Iran. John Bolton has been wanting war with Iran for decades, he’s a key advisor to Trump. He helped manufacture the WMD evidence to invade Iraq. He’s got the Saudi’s pulling him by the strings and dictating his Middle East policy - and they would love to have their biggest rival crushed. 

The fact that the US president domestically always mired in scandal, is seemingly unable to get legislation through anymore, and has falling poll numbers make me think war is more likely. No US wartime president has ever lost their reelection. I think as things get more desperate with him, the more war looks appealing to him.

For me, personally, I think it’s a fucking disaster. I’ve got family members who are probably going to be bombed because of an idiot president and the evil people that pull his strings.

What seems to be the US (or at least John Bolton’s) plan for regime change in Iran is to topple the Islamic Republic and put Mujahideeh e-Kahlq (MEK) into power. That plan is fucking insane.

MEK were actually instrumental in removing the US’s puppet from power in the revolution - they were initially formed as an Islamist-Marxist (weird mix, I know) party in opposition to the Shah’s forced secularisation and against the Shah’s crackdown on left leaning political figures (which ranged from things like censorship to having SAVAK, the secret police, kick in your door at night and drag you to Evin prison for torturing, and anything in between).

In the aftermath of the revolution, however, MEK and many other political groups (like the Tudeh party) were purged more brutally than anything the Shah did.

The MEK took this betrayal as an act of war. They left Iran and set up shop in Iraq. In the Iran-Iraq war they fought alongside Saddam’s forces gassing Iranians, so virtually every Iranian considers them traitors. Since then, both Iran AND Iraq consider MEK a terrorist group (the US did as well until very recently) - that should clue you into how MEK have operated in the Middle East since the 80s.

What I’ve actually noticed though is that a lot of MEK members are all over the west. They are the Iranians who cheering the loudest in support for Trump to go ahead and devastate their country. When you couple that with the news that’s John Bolton takes money from MEK it really explains itself.

The history of MEK should explain why Iranians wouldn’t want MEK in command of their day to day lives. A history of western intervention in the Middle East, particularly Iran, demonstrate to everybody why nobody should want this. It will cause shitloads of death, destabilise the region, and likely cause a headache the rest of the world will have to deal with for decades or more.

I think what’s most sad about frustrating about this is Iran has a pretty young population that has shown it will push for political reforms through their own political processes. They have very very high voter turnout, so despite the oppressive government, they believe their votes matter. And since the 80s Iran has reformed pretty significantly. And relations with Iran and the US were reaching their highest point under Obama after the JCPOA was signed by Iran, the US, the EU, Russia and China. This led to big big support for reformist politicians over hardliners. Gradual political reform in Iran is possible without bombing anyone or killing anyone. Soon all the people associated with the revolution will be dead.

But the hardliners who were against making a deal with the US said things like “you can’t ever trust America” and “this is a trap, they want to invade and they don’t want us to be able to defend themselves.” For a while it looked like egg on their faces.

And then Trump proved them right. He backed out of the deal, he reimposed and introduced new sanctions (which affect ordinary people the most, the Mullahs are corrupt and will smuggle the oil they can no longer export - then they’ll get their money) and is threatening them with war. This must be devastating to the reformists in Iran, so much political momentum lost. But that isn’t so important to them if they’re about to go to war.

You could not have made better anti-US propaganda for the Islamic Republic of Iran. They made a deal with the US, they followed through with the deal - the US broke it. They kept following through with the deal, to try to at least keep relations warming with the EU, the US introduced new and harsher sanctions. Iran looks to the EU and sees they aren’t willing to violate US sanctions and also sees the US park a fleet next door, then says they’re going to have to violate parts of the agreement to protect themselves.

But you know how the hardliners will spin that story? “The reformists let our guard down and trusted them, now invaders are here to destroy your country like they did to Iraq.”

This is why a mentally handicapped person shouldn’t be president of the United States

[Azeem]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

.

For me, personally, I think it’s a fucking disaster. I’ve got family members who are probably going to be bombed because of an idiot president and the evil people that pull his strings.

 

And it's not going to be limited to Iran, as i already said the Shia population in the surrounding countries will come in flocks to fight for Iran just like the Iran-Iraq war. Arabs will pressurise the governments to crackdown on these foreign militias because of their economic leverage and putting the whole region into a civil war. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 minutes ago, Azeem said:

And it's not going to be limited to Iran, as i already said the Shia population in the surrounding countries will come in flocks to fight for Iran just like the Iran-Iraq war. Arabs will pressurise the governments to crackdown on these foreign militias because of their economic leverage and putting the whole region into a civil war. 

I think if Iran is invaded, Iran's proxies will be mobilised and their job will be to make life hell for the Saudis and Israelis if there is a war. To create at least some semblance of a "home front" for these countries that pushed for war with Iran to have to deal with while Iran deals with the invasion. I think everyone knows the US military would (and tbh probably will, unfortunately) destroy Iran and leave it as a pile of smoldering rubble while patting themselves on the back for the liberating they've done. I imagine Iran's first move would be to lash out like a desperate cornered animal and try to inflict as much pain to it's enemies in the region if it is staring destruction in the face. You can bet that Iran and Iraq will target each others oil fields if it comes down to that. And the Straight of Hormuz will be mined by both sides, so oil exports will probably go to a crawl.

And then after the "defeat of conventional forces" we'll probably see an insurgency like we saw in Iraq. Then we can think about things like what a US war in Iran would mean, because if Iraq was a long and bloody war (it's still going on ffs) - Iran's a population that's over twice of Iraq's. And the geography of Iran seems much less friendly to an invading force. So it'll probably be absolute hell on earth.

[nudge+]

6 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think if Iran is invaded, Iran's proxies will be mobilised and their job will be to make life hell for the Saudis and Israelis if there is a war. To create at least some semblance of a "home front" for these countries that pushed for war with Iran to have to deal with while Iran deals with the invasion. I think everyone knows the US military would (and tbh probably will, unfortunately) destroy Iran and leave it as a pile of smoldering rubble while patting themselves on the back for the liberating they've done. I imagine Iran's first move would be to lash out like a desperate cornered animal and try to inflict as much pain to it's enemies in the region if it is staring destruction in the face. You can bet that Iran and Iraq will target each others oil fields if it comes down to that. And the Straight of Hormuz will be mined by both sides, so oil exports will probably go to a crawl.

And then after the "defeat of conventional forces" we'll probably see an insurgency like we saw in Iraq. Then we can think about things like what a US war in Iran would mean, because if Iraq was a long and bloody war (it's still going on ffs) - Iran's a population that's over twice of Iraq's. And the geography of Iran seems much less friendly to an invading force. So it'll probably be absolute hell on earth.

I don't think China is just going to stand aside and watch though. As Azeem said, they have invested way too much in the region just to watch it go out in smoke.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 minutes ago, nudge said:

I don't think China is just going to stand aside and watch though. As Azeem said, they have invested way too much in the region just to watch it go out in smoke.

I'd agree in normal circumstances. But with this US administration, I think the most predictable thing has been the unpredictably erratic behavior of the administration.

Last week the administration announced a rising threat from Iran, brought a fleet in, then at the end of the week said that there was evidence this threat with Iran was deescalating. So that was fucking weird. Then instead of sticking with that de-escalation, that emergency declaration to sell to the Saudis goes through with the reasoning being the Iran threat.

We know that this administration is not afraid for the US to stand alone on the world stage, it's got a slightly enhanced version of the already very strong relationship between the Saudis and Israelis, who've longed for the US to invade Iran, as well as advisors that have been wanting war with Iran probably as soon as the revolution ended in 1979...

so with all that considered, my big fear is everyone on the world stage, especially China - the other Superpower - says "don't go to war, it's a terrible idea" but in private he's being egged on by the people who've been egging him on to escalate for war with Iran. And this administration is not afraid to stand alone.

What does China do in response if the US decides "fuck it" and starts a war in the Middle East against the world community urging them not to? They can't really step in to fully protect their investments in Iran once the missiles have been launched; how do they mitigate the most amount of harm to that investment? Is it getting involved militarily themselves?

Or do they have to threaten getting involved militarily themselves to prevent war from happening? My big concern with brinksmanship like this is when it goes wrong, and it can go very wrong with stupid people involved (see: WWI) - and I think it's clear stupid people are involved here. It's fucking mental how unstable the Middle East is... and it's a region where for my entire fucking life has been unstable as fuck. And the US doing things in the Middle East without thinking about the consequences ever is just making things worse and worse and worse (etc).

[nudge+]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'd agree in normal circumstances. But with this US administration, I think the most predictable thing has been the unpredictably erratic behavior of the administration.

Last week the administration announced a rising threat from Iran, brought a fleet in, then at the end of the week said that there was evidence this threat with Iran was deescalating. So that was fucking weird. Then instead of sticking with that de-escalation, that emergency declaration to sell to the Saudis goes through with the reasoning being the Iran threat.

We know that this administration is not afraid for the US to stand alone on the world stage, it's got a slightly enhanced version of the already very strong relationship between the Saudis and Israelis, who've longed for the US to invade Iran, as well as advisors that have been wanting war with Iran probably as soon as the revolution ended in 1979...

so with all that considered, my big fear is everyone on the world stage, especially China - the other Superpower - says "don't go to war, it's a terrible idea" but in private he's being egged on by the people who've been egging him on to escalate for war with Iran. And this administration is not afraid to stand alone.

What does China do in response if the US decides "fuck it" and starts a war in the Middle East against the world community urging them not to? They can't really step in to fully protect their investments in Iran once the missiles have been launched; how do they mitigate the most amount of harm to that investment? Is it getting involved militarily themselves?

Or do they have to threaten getting involved militarily themselves to prevent war from happening? My big concern with brinksmanship like this is when it goes wrong, and it can go very wrong with stupid people involved (see: WWI) - and I think it's clear stupid people are involved here. It's fucking mental how unstable the Middle East is... and it's a region where for my entire fucking life has been unstable as fuck. And the US doing things in the Middle East without thinking about the consequences ever is just making things worse and worse and worse (etc).

I honestly don't know how China would react. I think it highly depends on the extent of this hypothetical (hopefully it stays that way) war in the Middle East. I mean, is it a few bombings here and there? Then surely nothing much will happen; the Chinese definitely won't get into an actual open war with the US just for Teheran. If it escalates into something much bigger with numerous countries involved in actual warfare though, I don't think China will be just watching and doing nothing other than asking everyone to stop fighting; at some point they'd have to think about protecting both their current investments and their geopolitical and economical interests in the region. Hope it doesn't come to that, but I do think that a huge conflict is unavoidable in the near future, one way or the other.

[Azeem]

1 hour ago, nudge said:

 but I do think that a huge conflict is unavoidable in the near future, one way or the other.

Henry Kissinger's interview in 2011

" “The United States is baiting China and Russia, and the final nail in the coffin will be Iran, which is, of course, the main target of Israel. We have allowed China to increase their military strength and Russia to recover from Sovietization, to give them a false sense of bravado, this will create an all together faster demise for them. We’re like the sharp shooter daring the noob to pick up the gun, and when they try, it’s bang bang. The coming war will be so severe that only one superpower can win, and that’s us folks.......

If you are an ordinary person, then you can prepare yourself for war by moving to the countryside and building a farm, but you must take guns with you, as the hordes of starving will be roaming. Also, even though the elite will have their safe havens and specialist shelters, they must be just as careful during the war as the ordinary civilians, because their shelters can still be compromised.

We told the military that we would have to take over seven Middle Eastern countries for their resources and they have nearly completed their job. We all know what I think of the military, but I have to say they have obeyed orders superfluously this time. It is just that last stepping stone, i.e. Iran which will really tip the balance. How long can China and Russia stand by and watch America clean up? The great Russian bear and Chinese sickle will be roused from their slumber and this is when Israel will have to fight with all its might and weapons to kill as many Arabs as it can. Hopefully if all goes well, half the Middle East will be Israeli. "

[Dr. Gonzo]

I don't believe in hell, but if I did I'd sleep a bit better at night knowing that Kissinger will spend eternity in hell.

[Azeem]

Taliban just shoot down a US Chinook helicopter although they are saying it was a hard landing  really hard landing 

This is exactly the reason US wants a war in the region, they don't want the world to focus on their humiliation in Afghanistan at the hands of some poppy farmers its like Vietnam all over again and it will also hurt Chinese interests in the region plus they will sell lots of weapons to all parties directly and indirectly. Its a win win win situation for US

[Azeem]

On 26/05/2019 at 02:24, Azeem said:

Henry Kissinger's interview in 2011

" “The United States is baiting China and Russia, and the final nail in the coffin will be Iran, which is, of course, the main target of Israel. We have allowed China to increase their military strength and Russia to recover from Sovietization, to give them a false sense of bravado, this will create an all together faster demise for them. We’re like the sharp shooter daring the noob to pick up the gun, and when they try, it’s bang bang. The coming war will be so severe that only one superpower can win, and that’s us folks.......

His follow up satire interview in 2018

The prophesy published in 2011 is slowly coming into fruition, as espoused by the venerable Henry Kissinger, possibly the greatest living statesman of modern times. Once again we were afforded a brief interview with the elderly statesman in his grand Manhattan apartment, and after a long journey from London, England, we were greeted with the utmost hospitality from our host.

Quote

“In our last conversation I spoke of the key to war. This key is Iran, and its catalyst was Iraq and Syria. One must remember that a conflict with Iran is effectively a conflict with Russia and China, and soon they will enter the fray, as was prophesied. We, the United States have been baiting the Russians and Chinese for some time, and slowly they are getting the message. They will be forced to make their move sooner than later. The supreme land of Eretz Ha’Avot, our motherland, our home will fight with all its might now to cleanse the Middle East of threats to Israel. This is the time to cut out the tumor that has haunted us for so long, and Bibi, my protégé, will take no prisoners. Rest assured, I was on the phone to him yesterday during the Iranian attack on the Golan Heights.”

I ask Kissinger, in the last conversation we had in 2011, he was quoted as saying“It is just that last stepping stone, i.e. Iran which will really tip the balance”. Why is Iran such a stepping stone for total global warfare?

Quote

“The Persians are the ultimate prize in global hegemony. Once that line is crossed, then the onus and power play increases incrementally. The stepping stone to global domination ever closer for the United States. Iran is bolstered by Russia and China, and when we take that away from them, they will have less global power, they will have less global brinkmanship, they will see reduced global territorial influence in the region. This will cause them to make a move, because if they do not, then they are finished as well as the Iranians.

“When General Wesley Clarke said that seven Middle Eastern countries were to be taken over, he was not joking or fooling around. This is the plan all along, and the internet is helping the spread of Western culture, Western ways, that these countries aspire to be like the West, especially when every day they see how we live very well in the West. Their poverty, their uncertain living standards, their constant state of war for them becomes unbearable. The people will also eventually revolt from the inside to dethrone the dictators. Look what happened in Libya, in Egypt and Tunisia, now in Yemen, and Syria, Iraq as well as the failed coup in Turkey. Hearts and minds first, then military.”

I ask Dr. Kissinger about Obama’s style of presidency compared to Trump’s.

Quote

“Essentially one was the sweetener before the cup of coffee. Obama’s role, and he played it very well was to sweeten up the chumps, and to think they had one over us. Naturally, Obama did not know that was his role, and he naively believed he was doing the right thing. However, we would never give in so easily, and this is why we put Trump in. Once we had the sweetener, we put in the cup of war, the coffee, strong and military trained of course, as Trump is, he went to military academy and knows what is needed. He knows that business is war, war is business, and he also knows that to really finish the job, we must have total war or nothing will ever change. You cannot make an omelette without breaking a few eggs, thus meaning — for true change to come, we must first have some constructive destruction. The moment of truth will be beautiful to behold, because war is both things, it is ugly yet beautiful in what it can achieve.”

Did You know about the EU army, and its preparations for war with Russia in 2011? 

Quote

“Yes, of course I knew. Yes, Russia has always been a thorn in Europe’s side, and the recent incursion into Ukraine was a small but decisive move by Putin. Here is a man that I respect highly because he acts decisively, yet secretively, almost akin to a grand master in chess, but we will always out manoeuvre him with our technology, our technique, and we will out manoeuvre the Chins too. We shackled them with communism in the first place, therefore they have their hands tied behind their backs and are literally too blind to see straight with their restrictive ideology. The Russians however have gone from communism to authoritarianism and vast amounts of mafia corruption, I might add. The Russians are still in a post-Soviet stupor, they have still not found themselves. As for Europe, they are in a sclerotic state as the drums of war are beating ever faster and louder every day.”

I ask Dr. Kissinger about the New World Order that will come after the purging is completed. What will that entail?

Quote

“Most of it, I cannot talk about, and I may not live to even see it, however as one of its architects, I can reveal a few slivers of information. Essentially the NWO means singular. There can only be one winner over all of earth’s last remaining resources, and no other factions can exist. It also means a controlled population below 500 million where no other conflict will ever occur again. Invariably, the new technological society is in place now, because we have the technology and technique as we speak now, but the inherent problem is different factions, old ways of thinking and overpopulation. Of course, this is a very large topic, and I fear I have given away too much, but you do the math. If you survive into the next stage, you will be a truly esteemed member and honored, illuminated fellow of the New World Order, but only if you survive.”

 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Azeem

[Azeem]

China has threatened to block the supply of rare earth metals to US China supplies 80% of rare earth metals of the world.

Official Chinese statement 

' We advice the US not to underestimate Chinese ability to safeguard our development rights and interests, don't say we didn't warn you '