The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Dr. Gonzo]

Some good news though!

[Azeem]

 

I agree with this. My views have changed about this, I used to think it was because of Israeli lobby blah blah and all that the U.S acts the way it does in the Palestine and Middle East in general. 

Ok suppose there is no lobby how would you think U.S would act ? benevolent ? probably not, it would pretty much be the same. 

 

[Rucksackfranzose]

25 minutes ago, Azeem said:

 

I agree with this. My views have changed about this, I used to think it was because of Israeli lobby blah blah and all that the U.S acts the way it does in the Palestine and Middle East in general. 

Ok suppose there is no lobby how would you think U.S would act ? benevolent ? probably not, it would pretty much be the same. 

 

No idea, although I agree there wouldn't be much of goodwill from the USA's part, there's a certain possibility they'd neglect the Middle East the way they do Africa, in my honest opinion. Which would be a slight improvement on the status quo.

[Spike]

1 hour ago, Azeem said:

 

I agree with this. My views have changed about this, I used to think it was because of Israeli lobby blah blah and all that the U.S acts the way it does in the Palestine and Middle East in general. 

Ok suppose there is no lobby how would you think U.S would act ? benevolent ? probably not, it would pretty much be the same. 

 

Depends on who and when. George HW Bush for instance gave Israel a very short leash, and was highly critical to the point of tension. He withheld financial support as coercion to slow down Israeli expansion into Palestine territories.

This post also fails to address and dismisses the fact the USA is the third biggest country in the world with many factions desiring different actions and outcomes. Zionist lobbies would want a total victory, surely? But the military contractors would probably want the war to be indecisive and long, with no reason to want either side to win or lose.

I’m sure the Biden administration is actually incredibly frustrated with Israel’s recent inability of restraint; making it much harder to justify support of Israel. Eternal threat of war maintaining status quo would have been preferable over this. I don’t think they actually have compassion for Palestine at all but I do 100% they are incredibly mad at Israel for escalation and putting them in an diplomatic position.

So just from what I can observe, three factions have different objectives. I feel like the Biden administration would want the situation to revert as closely as it could to pre-war, the military would want a prolonged conflict, and Zionists want total victory.

Of course this is conjecture but I can’t imagine a situation where they major players actually desire the same end objective, as they’d all be trying to further their own goals.

[Azeem]

2 hours ago, Spike said:

 

This post also fails to address and dismisses the fact the USA is the third biggest country in the world with many factions desiring different actions and outcomes. Zionist lobbies would want a total victory, surely? But the military contractors would probably want the war to be indecisive and long, with no reason to want either side to win or lose.

This is a good point. Someone made a thread about this recently that the different departments in U.S often have different objectives and usually its 6-7 top dogs in each that determine how they act. Blinken is making so many trips around the region pretty much on his own without even informing White House at times. 

[6666]

Hitler 2.0 not being received so well at the UN assembly.

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, Rucksackfranzose said:

No idea, although I agree there wouldn't be much of goodwill from the USA's part, there's a certain possibility they'd neglect the Middle East the way they do Africa, in my honest opinion. Which would be a slight improvement on the status quo.

Hasn't that just led to Russia and China's involvement in Africa over western intervention? Russia's supported that recent military coup and on paper, China pulling African countries into the belt & road project isn't so bad... but in effect it's been pretty heavy-handed economic imperialism with very predatory loans that let China essentially take over a country's infrastructure entirely - which is like the US style of economic imperialism but much more heavy handed.

Imperialism never really ended, we just live in an era of more sneaky & dishonest imperialism.

[Dr. Gonzo]

18 minutes ago, 6666 said:

Hitler 2.0 not being received so well at the UN assembly.

 

 

First off, I think Netanyahu deserves that kind of reception at the UN. I've got no love for Hamas and Hezbollah, but Netanyahu's a power-hungry psychopath who let the attacks of October 7th happen so he could have a long war to keep himself in power despite his enormous legal struggles.

He's a war criminal, he should be on trial at the Hague.

But secondly, isn't Trita Parsi the NIAC guy? If so, he's just a US based mouthpiece for the IR... and probably not someone you should be listening too closely to on Twitter unless you've got a particular interest in how a lobbyist from a nation with no ties to the US operates. I believe he was a part of the group of "Iranian ex-pats" that was invited to meet with Iran's president in NYC (he's also there for the UN General Assembly) that got to put on a show for cameras of how Pezeshkian's some sort of moderate, despite his reign as president beginning with increased enforcement of laws of morality laws (that Iran's "reformists" supposedly think need more lax enforcement) and executions.

Anyone involved with NIAC is a wolf in sheep's clothing. They say "the right thing" half the time to try to draw people in to get them to tacitly support the IR. I think it's weird but interesting that they're allowed to operate in the US.

[Spike]

3 hours ago, Azeem said:

This is a good point. Someone made a thread about this recently that the different departments in U.S often have different objectives and usually its 6-7 top dogs in each that determine how they act. Blinken is making so many trips around the region pretty much on his own without even informing White House at times. 

I’m sure Biden/Harris are incredibly furious that this happened and escalated during an election cycle. We have Harris out here saying egregious shit to placate one group but also alienating another group. Now the Republicans can lay into them for the situation at hand and wank themselves on how they’d ‘fix it’.

[Dr. Gonzo]

37 minutes ago, Spike said:

I’m sure Biden/Harris are incredibly furious that this happened and escalated during an election cycle. We have Harris out here saying egregious shit to placate one group but also alienating another group. Now the Republicans can lay into them for the situation at hand and wank themselves on how they’d ‘fix it’.

I'm also pretty sure that's why Netanyahu isn't really wanting to deescalate at the moment, other than his own legal struggles in Israel. He's tight as fuck with Trump and the GOP & he'd prefer to be dealing with the US President that recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital for no good reason other than Netanyahu wanted it, despite basically every US foreign policy expert saying "this is stupid and needlessly enflames the region."

[OrangeKhrush]

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gunmen-shoot-kill-aid-worker-gaza-charity-family-say-2024-09-27/

Hamas have a new strategy,  probably because they are not getting anything smuggled in anymore.   This is low even for them. 

The big news though is waiting on the confirmation of whether Nesrallah was killed,  that would be good news. 

[OrangeKhrush]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I'm also pretty sure that's why Netanyahu isn't really wanting to deescalate at the moment, other than his own legal struggles in Israel. He's tight as fuck with Trump and the GOP & he'd prefer to be dealing with the US President that recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital for no good reason other than Netanyahu wanted it, despite basically every US foreign policy expert saying "this is stupid and needlessly enflames the region."

Iran have spent the best part of 15 years enflaming the region,  arming proxies, destabilising governments and spreading radicalism.  The junkyard dogs bark is bigger than its bite.   

[6666]

8 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Iran have spent the best part of 15 years enflaming the region,  arming proxies, destabilising governments and spreading radicalism.  The junkyard dogs bark is bigger than its bite.   

Said by a man that's a cheerleader for the mass killings that are actually happening at the hands of IDF terrorists... 

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Iran have spent the best part of 15 years enflaming the region,  arming proxies, destabilising governments and spreading radicalism.  The junkyard dogs bark is bigger than its bite.   

I don't disagree with that - but for longer than 15 years Israel has enflamed the region. It's not like new illegal Israeli settlements announced every time a US president lands in Israel, to make it look like the US is fully in support of Israel flaunting international law, is anything new. Nor is the way Israel views collective punishment in warfare or the belief that 100s of civilians dying to kill 1 terrorist leader is justifiable.

I think maybe a better strategy than leveling an entire apartment complex to kill one Hezbollah leader, going back to the more targeted strikes and assassinations of Iranian leadership would do more to keep Israel safe than what we've seen in Gaza and Lebanon which is just going to create a new generation of Arabs that hate Israel with every fibre in their being.

Even that pager and radio attack I think did more to hurt relations between Lebanon and Israel than any real long term military benefit to Israel. If Israel is serious about wanting lasting peace and stability, they've got to remember they still have to live next to their neighbors.

By making a huge number of their population freak out about whether or not their electronic devices will randomly explode (and it was a HUGE number of Lebanese people that reported fear that their phones and radios might kill them, regardless of whether they had any ties to Hezbollah or not). There's an argument that it amounts to terrorism - I'm not so sure about that, because obviously Hezbollah militants were the direct target - and while civilian deaths are always sad, there just being 2 civilians killed is particularly remarkable (especially when considering how Israel typically fights wars). But it certainly inflicted a lot of mental anguish for Lebanese people, whether that was the point or not.

But like I've said, none of the parties with any power to end this: Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah... none of them are serious about peace at all.

[OrangeKhrush]

7 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I don't disagree with that - but for longer than 15 years Israel has enflamed the region. It's not like new illegal Israeli settlements announced every time a US president lands in Israel, to make it look like the US is fully in support of Israel flaunting international law, is anything new. Nor is the way Israel views collective punishment in warfare or the belief that 100s of civilians dying to kill 1 terrorist leader is justifiable.

I think maybe a better strategy than leveling an entire apartment complex to kill one Hezbollah leader, going back to the more targeted strikes and assassinations of Iranian leadership would do more to keep Israel safe than what we've seen in Gaza and Lebanon which is just going to create a new generation of Arabs that hate Israel with every fibre in their being.

Even that pager and radio attack I think did more to hurt relations between Lebanon and Israel than any real long term military benefit to Israel. If Israel is serious about wanting lasting peace and stability, they've got to remember they still have to live next to their neighbors.

By making a huge number of their population freak out about whether or not their electronic devices will randomly explode (and it was a HUGE number of Lebanese people that reported fear that their phones and radios might kill them, regardless of whether they had any ties to Hezbollah or not). There's an argument that it amounts to terrorism - I'm not so sure about that, because obviously Hezbollah militants were the direct target - and while civilian deaths are always sad, there just being 2 civilians killed is particularly remarkable (especially when considering how Israel typically fights wars). But it certainly inflicted a lot of mental anguish for Lebanese people, whether that was the point or not.

But like I've said, none of the parties with any power to end this: Israel, Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah... none of them are serious about peace at all.

Collective punishment is the cop out term,   when people subscribe to a group who's ideology is premised solely on the destruction of others and carry out that mandate,  they may be "innocent" in actions but they harbour malevolence in their hearts and minds.    I also think if Israel wanted to they could kill every Palestinian,  that to me is enough indication that it is not the modus operandi.    

The real fuckers are the ones that exposed their people to war,  maybe they did not anticipate Israel's response after years of Israel bending the knee to the UN despite years of rockets and ballistic missiles being fired at Israel.    That Schmuck from Iran calling on Israel to disarm for peace,  Israel's military and technological supremacy needs to be made the deterrent. 

Palestine was going to be the harder war due to the nature of the embedded enemy,   Lebanon is much easier,  Hezbollah have many enemies notably the Lebanese government and army and most of the population.   Lebanese people who want nothing to do with Hezbollah also moved north into the protected zones,  those that stayed are likely all fanatics.   

The strike today was extremely targeted,  it was a strike on Hezbollah military command,  it wasn't one leader it was many,  this after 5000+ were targeted in a clandestine attack.    This is physiological warfare taken to the max,  the target though is not worth one iota of empathy. 

Who's next,  Iran will probably be last on the Dinner reservation as the USAF has been practicing deep strikes,  the US has been mapping deep subterranean tunnels to test the new GBU57 for bunker busting strikes,  the US has also targetted strikes against the Iranian nuclear program.   Iran is also likely to be more of a target for a expeditionary army like the US,  Iran is to far and Israel is not designed to move an Army that far out.     The Houthi's?   they are a bit far but they should be left to keep Saudi Arabia and the UAE in check. 

[OrangeKhrush]

22 minutes ago, 6666 said:

Said by a man that's a cheerleader for the mass killings that are actually happening at the hands of IDF terrorists... 

Still throwing the victim card around,  it is not like there hasn't been ample opportunity to co-exist,  they chose war and not as defenders but instigators.   you don't start a war and cry victim,  that is reserved for Hitler and Putin. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Collective punishment is the cop out term,   when people subscribe to a group who's ideology is premised solely on the destruction of others and carry out that mandate,  they may be "innocent" in actions but they harbour malevolence in their hearts and minds.    I also think if Israel wanted to they could kill every Palestinian,  that to me is enough indication that it is not the modus operandi.    

The real fuckers are the ones that exposed their people to war,  maybe they did not anticipate Israel's response after years of Israel bending the knee to the UN despite years of rockets and ballistic missiles being fired at Israel.    That Schmuck from Iran calling on Israel to disarm for peace,  Israel's military and technological supremacy needs to be made the deterrent. 

Palestine was going to be the harder war due to the nature of the embedded enemy,   Lebanon is much easier,  Hezbollah have many enemies notably the Lebanese government and army and most of the population.   Lebanese people who want nothing to do with Hezbollah also moved north into the protected zones,  those that stayed are likely all fanatics.   

The strike today was extremely targeted,  it was a strike on Hezbollah military command,  it wasn't one leader it was many,  this after 5000+ were targeted in a clandestine attack.    This is physiological warfare taken to the max,  the target though is not worth one iota of empathy. 

Who's next,  Iran will probably be last on the Dinner reservation as the USAF has been practicing deep strikes,  the US has been mapping deep subterranean tunnels to test the new GBU57 for bunker busting strikes,  the US has also targetted strikes against the Iranian nuclear program.   Iran is also likely to be more of a target for a expeditionary army like the US,  Iran is to far and Israel is not designed to move an Army that far out.     The Houthi's?   they are a bit far but they should be left to keep Saudi Arabia and the UAE in check. 

Collective punishment is not the cop out term. We've seen it before with Gaza and Lebanon - civilian deaths are considered acceptable as long as one known terrorist is killed, even within refugee camps and aid stations. That is the definition of collective punishment. That second sentence there... is not great reasoning tbh. Just because Israel has refrained from systematic destruction of the Palestinians amounting to the same sort of mass murder we've seen in the Holocaust and Armenian genocide... this does not make Israeli human rights violations and war crimes acceptable by any means.

You are right that within Lebanon, there are many who don't like Hezbollah. But have you looked at the actual numbers of how many Lebanese people support Hezbollah or view them as the lesser of three evils (the evils being: Hezbollah, Lebanon's dogshit army that is worthless, and Israel)? It's staggering.

The target of the attack today was an entire apartment complex - a lot of civilians will have died, been injured, or lost their homes. I'm sure Israel knows this and decided it is worth the blowback the attack will cause. I think it is once again Israeli leadership being shortsighted.

I think expecting a full scale attack and invasion of Iran by the US is hopeful at best. Iran isn't Iraq, go look at a map that shows the topography. It is a tough place to invade - it would make the Iraq war and Afghanistan war look like a piece of piss in comparison. I also think invasion would do more to pull Iran's public support more to the IR than not. Iran's government is unpopular with Iranians - but the idea of foreign invasion is also very unpopular. Anything other than assassinations of government officials and sepahis and very targeted strikes (like the 2 recent strikes on Iranian facilities) would likely prompt massive outrage against the attackers. It's the rally-around-the-flag effect; even hardcore Shah loyalists in the military happily fought against Saddam Hussein's invading force to protect the revolutionary government.

If you want to see change in Iran that leads to a more peaceful Middle East, you want Khamenei and sepahi higher ups dead ASAP. I think once he dies there will be a massive power struggle, there's enough domestic chaos in Iran and lack of support in the current system of government for that to be realistic.

Meanwhile, you think the Houthis can survive if the IR isn't there to prop them up? That's laughable tbh, the Houthis greatest asset is they're in a terrain that is tough to bomb and they're receiving weaponry and training from Iran (and now Russia).

[6666]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Still throwing the victim card around,  it is not like there hasn't been ample opportunity to co-exist,  they chose war and not as defenders but instigators.   you don't start a war and cry victim,  that is reserved for Hitler and Putin. 

Israel's idea of co-existing is to freely kill, rape, and torture Palestinians without them complaining. That has been their behaviour since their inception.

Israel is a nation born out of terrorism and it continues to act as murderously as it wants without real consequences.

You supporting Nazi Israel and then thinking you're in a position to criticise any other country or group is truly ridiculous but I guess that's what you have to be to be a Zionist extremist.

[6666]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Collective punishment is the cop out term,   when people subscribe to a group who's ideology is premised solely on the destruction of others and carry out that mandate,  they may be "innocent" in actions but they harbour malevolence in their hearts and minds.    I also think if Israel wanted to they could kill every Palestinian,  that to me is enough indication that it is not the modus operandi.    

The real fuckers are the ones that exposed their people to war,  maybe they did not anticipate Israel's response after years of Israel bending the knee to the UN despite years of rockets and ballistic missiles being fired at Israel.    That Schmuck from Iran calling on Israel to disarm for peace,  Israel's military and technological supremacy needs to be made the deterrent. 

Palestine was going to be the harder war due to the nature of the embedded enemy,   Lebanon is much easier,  Hezbollah have many enemies notably the Lebanese government and army and most of the population.   Lebanese people who want nothing to do with Hezbollah also moved north into the protected zones,  those that stayed are likely all fanatics.   

The strike today was extremely targeted,  it was a strike on Hezbollah military command,  it wasn't one leader it was many,  this after 5000+ were targeted in a clandestine attack.    This is physiological warfare taken to the max,  the target though is not worth one iota of empathy. 

Who's next,  Iran will probably be last on the Dinner reservation as the USAF has been practicing deep strikes,  the US has been mapping deep subterranean tunnels to test the new GBU57 for bunker busting strikes,  the US has also targetted strikes against the Iranian nuclear program.   Iran is also likely to be more of a target for a expeditionary army like the US,  Iran is to far and Israel is not designed to move an Army that far out.     The Houthi's?   they are a bit far but they should be left to keep Saudi Arabia and the UAE in check. 

The best case scenario would be for Saudi Arabia & Jordan to take America's dick out of their mouths. After that maybe they can all put their differences aside, team up and free the region from Israel's military & government. 

Unfortunately, that's unlikely. The US will just arm Nazi Israel with whatever they need to kill as many as possible from a distance.