The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Spike]

If Israel is rightful Jewish clay, then shouldn't all white South Africans get deported and put in camps?

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Jubalia is Hamas's Baghouz,  the last stand,  it failed for ISIS,  it will fail for them. 

ISIS still exists though and has commit 2 recent terror attacks lol. They might be weaker, but it's genuinely putting your head in the sand if you think ISIS truly failed.

[OrangeKhrush]

17 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

ISIS still exists though and has commit 2 recent terror attacks lol. They might be weaker, but it's genuinely putting your head in the sand if you think ISIS truly failed.

That is true,  but their fighting capacity and influence is pretty weak,  they got slapped up pretty good by the largely disorganised Egyptians.   

 

 

 

[6666]

On 19/11/2024 at 18:15, OrangeKhrush said:

It doesn't say anything about Israel doing it so why do you assert that it is Israel's problem?

The other article didn't have much other than "eye witness says"  but I find it strange that a place where people are running around with their phones recording somehow has no recording of it?  an eye witness alone is not sufficient to pass the probability test unless it can show beyond reasonable doubt that there is no other explanation as to what could have happened ie: Hamas burned it down because they have more incentive now to cause mass suffering so as to force something of a favourable outcome. 

Sure, the IDF who've freely and openly committed unbelievable war crimes against Palestinians obviously wouldn't do this and neither would Israelis who've attacked not just Palestinians but anyone trying to help Palestinians. It must be the people who are against Israel that are attacking Palestinians and making things worse for them...

The mental gymnastics of pro-Israelis to convince themselves that Israel isn't a scumbag nation is incredible. The IDF terrorists will openly celebrate their war crimes. Israelis will openly celebrate rape and genocide. But pro-Israelis outside of Israel will still try to paint a civilised, sane face on to Israel.

And your nonsense memes might work on your fellow morally corrupt Zionists but they don't stand up outside of your pro-genocide bubble.

Maybe Israel shouldn't have been obsessed with killing & torturing Palestinians since the British gave them someone else's home. Maybe then most of the world wouldn't justifiably hate them.

[6666]

Arrest warrant out for Netanyahu. Long, long overdue. Nothing will happen but it's symbolic of the start of some sort of pushback against Israel and their endless war crimes.

[Dr. Gonzo]

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy42vxd99po

some rare good news coming out of the Middle East! Hopefully she didn't have endure too much horrible shit in that "psychiatric ward."

Hopefully someday soon the zealots in charge of that country meet justice and people like her in Iran can actually live normal lives.

[OrangeKhrush]

Telling the truth for everyone to hear.  https://x.com/Jonathan_Elk/status/1859958475809304880

Can we call it child abuse or is it beyond the pale. 

Edited November 23 by OrangeKhrush

[OrangeKhrush]

18 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy42vxd99po

some rare good news coming out of the Middle East! Hopefully she didn't have endure too much horrible shit in that "psychiatric ward."

Hopefully someday soon the zealots in charge of that country meet justice and people like her in Iran can actually live normal lives.

I guess she was a bit luckier than Arvin Gharahvani who was executed in what observing bodies called a sham trial that did not consider the fact he was attacked by armed men.   His crime was that he was Kurdish and Jewish.    I give credit to the Iranian Human Rights NGO for bringing it to light,   Amnesty International wont work against their overlords. 

The rare good news is more Khomenei has cancer and is reported to be in a coma,  the only problem is that someone just as bad if not worse may take over. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I guess she was a bit luckier than Arvin Gharahvani who was executed in what observing bodies called a sham trial that did not consider the fact he was attacked by armed men.   His crime was that he was Kurdish and Jewish.    I give credit to the Iranian Human Rights NGO for bringing it to light,   Amnesty International wont work against their overlords. 

The rare good news is more Khomenei has cancer and is reported to be in a coma,  the only problem is that someone just as bad if not worse may take over. 

Yeah in the last 2 months they’ve executed around 4 “dissidents” a day. It’s not really well reported and only the people who get international coverage get spared by this shit dictatorship of religious morons.

[Rucksackfranzose]

According to Cerman media Israel violated the armitice in Lebanon by bombing Beirut. Intrigued to learn how @OrangeKhrush defends that as appropriate.

Edited December 3 by Rucksackfranzose

[OrangeKhrush]

4 hours ago, Rucksackfranzose said:

According to Cerman media Israel violated the armitice in Lebanon by bombing Beirut. Intrigued to learn how @OrangeKhrush defends that as appropriate.

There have been exchanges with conflicting information but it hasnt been unilateral.   

Hezbollah were supposed to withdraw across the litani but have not and opened fire on the IDF.   The ceasefire was conditional upon Article 1701, failure to comply will allow israel to continue prosecuting its strikes on military infrastructure.

The syria issue throws in a new paradigm with HTS being anti Assad, anti IrGC and anti Hezbollah on top of being Anti Israel.    I hope Israel stays out of that as neither Assad or HTs are good,   if it is support for the Democratic Liberation Forces and Free Army of Syria sure but I would love Hezbollah to expand bodies fighting HTS.

[OrangeKhrush]

There was a story going around that Al Assad wants help from Israel,  I'm pretty sure that's garbage and even if he does it serves no interest for Israel.  Neither Assad or HTs are good options and maybe they can thin the herd a bit allowing the IAF to keep knocking out the IRGC lines of support to Hezbollah

The syria crisis has offered a golden opportunity to keep eroding the IRGC influence.

On a side note HTS are the most radical group yet, they make hezbollah look like teletubbies,  the things they have done to their subjects especially Christians is horrific,  these are hard core islamists that Turkey is funding.

[6666]

Pretty much Israel's mentality since forever -

 

They should be allowed to kill whoever they want, for as long as they want, and any resistance is antisemitic. A failed experiment of a country.

[OrangeKhrush]

On 03/12/2024 at 23:54, 6666 said:

Pretty much Israel's mentality since forever -

 

They should be allowed to kill whoever they want, for as long as they want, and any resistance is antisemitic. A failed experiment of a country.

Is there any proof that Hezbollah violated terms?  Yes  they failed to move north and conducted strikes against mount Dov.   They have also said they will not comply so,  what is the ceasefire then other than an agreement to cover Biden who went and pardoned his son under the radar.   Hezbollah never agreed to the ceasefire so what exactly is this?

If you ever wondered why tripods and cameras are set up perfectly to catch every every strike,  it is because the IDF notifies of an imminent strike and exactly what buildings are targeted.   If you are still there you mean to be there to add to molechs alter of sacrifice.  Why even give warnings if it doesnt get viewed as taking precautions to minimize harm,  if you fail to leave with an hour warning you mean to be there for a reason,  sacrifice to sell as media

Onto Syria,  its kicking off nicely.   Russia and Syria bombed Allepo with no warnings killing over 300 people,  but the silence is deafening.   HTS forces were trained by Ukraine in making low cost crude drones and how to operate the,  the result is staggering losses to both Russia and Asads armor.  The US have dusted off some A10s and carried out strikes on ISIS remnants.  HTS will soon be bumping heads with Hezbollah,  the old enemy of my enemy rings loud.

 

[OrangeKhrush]

Israel’s borders and territorial scope are a source of seemingly endless debate. Remarkably, despite the intensity of the debates, little attention has been paid to relevance of the doctrine of uti possidetis juris to resolving legal aspects of the border dispute. Uti possidetis juris is widely acknowledged as the doctrine of customary international law that is central to determining territorial sovereignty in the era of decolonization. The doctrine provides that emerging states presumptively inherit their pre-independence administrative boundaries.

Applied to the case of Israel, uti possidetis juris would dictate that Israel inherit the boundaries of the Mandate of Palestine as they existed in May, 1948. The doctrine would thus support Israeli claims to any or all of the currently hotly disputed areas of Jerusalem (including East Jerusalem), the West Bank, and even potentially the Gaza Strip (though not the Golan Heights).

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2745094

This is just one of thousands of publish records that confirmed Eretz Yisrael the status of Uti Possidetis Juris.   Nobody wants to note this because it makes the "palastine agenda" what it is,  a religious ideological conflict rooted within Islam.  Jordan and Egypt annexed the land and lost the following war,  in 1967 Israel reclaimed its sovereignty, and to date there is no state of palastine,  the Oslo accords were mere de facto recognition of a "dream" which was violated.   The international order has no power to remove territory which it recognised under uti possidetas,  to do so would open up pandoras box,  russia can claim ukraine,  India can claim pakistan, syria can claim iraq and parts of Jordan,  turkey could claim everything under the ottoman empire.  The standard needs to stop shifting,  they were offered citizenship in 1947 and they chose a war of extermination,  every group has a charter that calls for extermination.   The cycle needs to end.

[Spike]

6 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Israel’s borders and territorial scope are a source of seemingly endless debate. Remarkably, despite the intensity of the debates, little attention has been paid to relevance of the doctrine of uti possidetis juris to resolving legal aspects of the border dispute. Uti possidetis juris is widely acknowledged as the doctrine of customary international law that is central to determining territorial sovereignty in the era of decolonization. The doctrine provides that emerging states presumptively inherit their pre-independence administrative boundaries.

Applied to the case of Israel, uti possidetis juris would dictate that Israel inherit the boundaries of the Mandate of Palestine as they existed in May, 1948. The doctrine would thus support Israeli claims to any or all of the currently hotly disputed areas of Jerusalem (including East Jerusalem), the West Bank, and even potentially the Gaza Strip (though not the Golan Heights).

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2745094

This is just one of thousands of publish records that confirmed Eretz Yisrael the status of Uti Possidetis Juris.   Nobody wants to note this because it makes the "palastine agenda" what it is,  a religious ideological conflict rooted within Islam.  Jordan and Egypt annexed the land and lost the following war,  in 1967 Israel reclaimed its sovereignty, and to date there is no state of palastine,  the Oslo accords were mere de facto recognition of a "dream" which was violated.   The international order has no power to remove territory which it recognised under uti possidetas,  to do so would open up pandoras box,  russia can claim ukraine,  India can claim pakistan, syria can claim iraq and parts of Jordan,  turkey could claim everything under the ottoman empire.  The standard needs to stop shifting,  they were offered citizenship in 1947 and they chose a war of extermination,  every group has a charter that calls for extermination.   The cycle needs to end.

The only UTI here is you.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Aren't Israel's borders only a debate to Israelis and Palestinians? There's internationally recognised borders - but Israel doesn't recognise them and because they've got the US as their big brother they don't really have to worry about facing the consequences.

Agreed that the cycle needs to end... but remember, Israel's the side in the position to truly break the cycle.

[6666]

6 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Israel’s borders and territorial scope are a source of seemingly endless debate. Remarkably, despite the intensity of the debates, little attention has been paid to relevance of the doctrine of uti possidetis juris to resolving legal aspects of the border dispute. Uti possidetis juris is widely acknowledged as the doctrine of customary international law that is central to determining territorial sovereignty in the era of decolonization. The doctrine provides that emerging states presumptively inherit their pre-independence administrative boundaries.

Applied to the case of Israel, uti possidetis juris would dictate that Israel inherit the boundaries of the Mandate of Palestine as they existed in May, 1948. The doctrine would thus support Israeli claims to any or all of the currently hotly disputed areas of Jerusalem (including East Jerusalem), the West Bank, and even potentially the Gaza Strip (though not the Golan Heights).

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2745094

This is just one of thousands of publish records that confirmed Eretz Yisrael the status of Uti Possidetis Juris.   Nobody wants to note this because it makes the "palastine agenda" what it is,  a religious ideological conflict rooted within Islam.  Jordan and Egypt annexed the land and lost the following war,  in 1967 Israel reclaimed its sovereignty, and to date there is no state of palastine,  the Oslo accords were mere de facto recognition of a "dream" which was violated.   The international order has no power to remove territory which it recognised under uti possidetas,  to do so would open up pandoras box,  russia can claim ukraine,  India can claim pakistan, syria can claim iraq and parts of Jordan,  turkey could claim everything under the ottoman empire.  The standard needs to stop shifting,  they were offered citizenship in 1947 and they chose a war of extermination,  every group has a charter that calls for extermination.   The cycle needs to end.

Israel has been about killing people since its inception and they and their supporters are willing to justify and cheer on endless rape, torture, and genocide in support of Israel. A country run by and supported by psychotic people.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Looks like Assad's days as ruling Syria are numbered.

He's an awful guy, propped up by two truly evil dictators in Putin and Khamenei... but these rebels in Syria are imo the worst of the worst in terms of radical Islam. Syrians are siding with the rebels because under Assad they've got no real hope or future for their country - it is just a vassal state for Iran and Russia. But they're siding with some evil people who've probably got even less respect for human rights than Assad does (which is to say they've got less respect for human rights than someone who has virtually no respect for human rights).

It's also absolutely mental the international community has just let Syria turn into this fucked up warzone for the past... decade(?) - it feels like more than a decade. You've got so many international players fucking around in Syria. Russia, Iran, the US, Turkey, Kurdish separatists, Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc. But no real regard for what any of this means for the people living in Syria.

Also bizarre it doesn't get the same sort of attention as Palestine v. Israel.

[Spike]

Hafez al-Assad looks like Oswald Mosely

[6666]

Assad is done. Rebels have taken over. The people are happy he's gone but obviously have to wait and see what a new government looks like. Western media can't stop dancing and western governments will obviously be hoping to take advantage. For good or for bad, we'll wait and see. What we know for certain is that Israel are scumbags and have taken advantage to steal Syrian land.

Edited December 9 by 6666

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, 6666 said:

Assad is done. Rebels have taken over. The people are happy he's gone but obviously have to wait and see what a new government looks like. Western media can't stop dancing and western governments will obviously be hoping to take advantage. For good or foreign bad, we'll wait and see. What we know for certain is that Israel are scumbags and have taken advantage to steal Syrian land.

I don't think anyone that knows an ounce of anything about the region or the recent fall of similar regimes is super excited about this at all. Libya's not the Middle East, but it went from a pretty stable nation under Gaddafi to a hell hole with open-air slave markets in the streets of Tripoli.

I can't imagine jihadis in charge of Syria will end up any better than it's been in Afghanistan or Libya. And these guys are backed by Turkey - so I wouldn't be surprised to see some raping, pillaging, and genocide against the Kurds in the north of Syria.

[6666]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I don't think anyone that knows an ounce of anything about the region or the recent fall of similar regimes is super excited about this at all. Libya's not the Middle East, but it went from a pretty stable nation under Gaddafi to a hell hole with open-air slave markets in the streets of Tripoli.

I can't imagine jihadis in charge of Syria will end up any better than it's been in Afghanistan or Libya. And these guys are backed by Turkey - so I wouldn't be surprised to see some raping, pillaging, and genocide against the Kurds in the north of Syria.

The likelihood is that it won't turn out well for the people there but they might work with/for the US instead of Russia so they're the good guys now I guess.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, 6666 said:

The likelihood is that it won't turn out well for the people there but they might work with/for the US instead of Russia so they're the good guys now I guess.

I think the likelihood they will work with/for the US is actually quite low - at least directly. These are radical Islamicists, after all. They're not known to be truly friendly to western interests - otherwise we wouldn't have ISIS attacks pop up in the west. The main group of rebels is backed heavily by Turkey, where the US has an obvious influence, but Turkey has always skirted the line between the US & Russia despite being a NATO member.

I think it's likely they're trading a secular tyrant for a religious tyrant - but this is most likely going to go the way of Afghanistan/Libya. I think the US has already conducted airstrikes on some rebel targets, or has announced that they imminently will be striking (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/biden-offers-a-blueprint-for-us-support-in-syria/ar-AA1vuyGB?ocid=BingNewsSerp) - it's not so cut and dry how this all will turn out.

Russia and Iran still have many military bases in the country - I don't see them being quite so willing to abandon these entirely. Russia can easily trade Assad back to the rebels as a token of goodwill to foster better relations with whatever ends up as the next government of Syria. Iran's already faced 2 recent ISIS attacks and is probably not going to be extraordinarily comfortable with a substantial ISIS and ISIS-offshoot presence in a neighboring country. What they can do though is less clear - considering the diminished state of their largest and most well armed proxy, Hezbollah.

Crazy though how Russia and Iran badly miscalculating both the Ukraine invasion and Hamas's attack of October 7th has led to the downfall of their biggest ally in the region and created a moment of instability in the Middle East probably not seen since the US invasion of Iraq and the subsequent power vacuum that led to the creation of ISIS and the Syrian civil war itself.

For Russia this is a massive strategic loss. Syria's their stopping point for their military adventures in Africa as well as the port that was most used to ship to Venezuela. For Iran it's a similar situation - as well as a massive national security risk with ISIS and groups like ISIS on their border. No more access to the Mediterranean for them and no more supply chain to Hezbollah in Lebanon. And as mentioned before, Hezbollah is so much weaker in both Lebanon and Syria than they were a year ago.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are probably both licking their lips though, this is probably the most influence Turkey's had in the region since the fall of the Ottoman empire & the most influence Saudi Arabia's had since Al Qaeda and ISIS were at their height.

As usual, though, scary times for the Middle East as we enter a new level of instability in the least stable part of the world.

[Azeem]

I don't think Hamas attack had any input from Iran or anyone else. 

It was just purely them because they were seeing everyone normalizing with Israel throwing Palestine under the bus.

It was a success from that point of view since there is no going back to normal after this.