The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Azeem]

It's always so confusing on who is fighting who in Syria

[Dr. Gonzo]

Here's a fun story about the history of Iranian politics: https://portside.org/2020-01-25/how-britain-helped-irans-islamic-regime-destroy-its-left-wing-opposition

This is the fun story of how the country I was born in that utterly fucked my mum's country, decided "yeah, let's keep fucking it" because apparently people on the left are more evil than authoritarian theocracy. 

And in a similar vein... earlier in this thread I said that the US's recent escalations with Iran all stemming from the US pulling out of the JCPOA would ultimately lead to an erosion of support in Iranian politics of the reformists. Well guess what's happening: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/iran-reformists-lose-parliamentary-vote-200219102846864.htmlhttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/iran-reformists-lose-parliamentary-vote-200219102846864.html

The failure of the nuclear deal and return of sanctions has been devastating to an economy that's already been under strain from decades of mismanagement. Popular support for the reformists is at an all time low - people feel betrayed and feel stupid for believing in politicians that felt the west could be trusted.

And even without that popular support, reformists are finding political life in Iran pretty tough. 80% of reformist candidates have been blocked from running in the upcoming elections & many reformist newspapers have been shut down.

I feel like US foreign policy advisors must have known what escalating tensions and guaranteeing that the JCPOA would fail would lead to a rebound in support for Iran's hardliners. The confusing thing there is... the hardliners are the ones who think Iran's best way of dealing with the West is with rampant hostility. They are the ones who think more of Iran's resources, not less of them, should be spent supporting Iranian proxy wars - even if this does literally nothing for the millions of Iranians begging for their government to step in to fix their failing economy.

It begs the question: do they want a hostile Iran? If so, why? Because it guarantees instability in the region which guarantees more military intervention on the part of the US? Do they want to push Iran to become so belligerent they force the US to invade?

And if this political reality was not by design... it begs the question why no other parties to JCPOA did more than "urge restraint" as tensions first escalated. Because outside of super religious Shia Muslims, I can't imagine anyone in the world would be happy with hardliners likely coming back to power in Iran.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Likely record low turnout in Iran's parliamentary elections today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/nothing-will-change-apathy-and-a-lack-of-queues-on-election-day-in-iran

Could it be apathy... or is it because of the coronavirus fears now that there's these cases in Iran and relating to people who've traveled to Iran.

[Michael]

On 17/02/2020 at 09:47, Azeem said:

It's always so confusing on who is fighting who in Syria

Syria is an absolute mess. If Aleppo has indeed been freed from Al Qaeda, then good riddance to those scumbags. But we should not forget how brutal Asad's Syrian regime has been to many of it's own citizens. Asad has just benefitted from the fact that scum like Al Qaeda and ISIS spread across to many parts of Syria. So the focus of the international community was to rid Syria of these Islamic fanatics. But the evil acts committed by these groups, does not negate the evil actions that Asad's own army have perpetrated.

Asad and his regime should be made accountable for the atrocities that they have undertaken. The way they behaved towards many of the protestors at the start of the Syrian spring was unforgivable and they are still treating many of their own citizens with savagery and ruthlessness.

[Michael]

33 Turkish soldiers have been killed in an air strike committed by Syrian regime forces. I don't think that the Turks are going to take this lightly and we could see a serious escalation in the fighting in Syria because of this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51667717

[Dr. Gonzo]

12 hours ago, Michael said:

33 Turkish soldiers have been killed in an air strike committed by Syrian regime forces. I don't think that the Turks are going to take this lightly and we could see a serious escalation in the fighting in Syria because of this.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51667717

In that article it says Putin and Turdogan are working to deescalate the situation.

I don't understand what Turkey's end goal in Syria is. Are they backing rebels in Syria so they can annex that territory for themselves? Do they just want to kill off the Kurds? Because I'm sure Assad would love to kill the Kurds off.

[Michael]

21 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

In that article it says Putin and Turdogan are working to deescalate the situation.

I don't understand what Turkey's end goal in Syria is. Are they backing rebels in Syria so they can annex that territory for themselves? Do they just want to kill off the Kurds? Because I'm sure Assad would love to kill the Kurds off.

Erdogan's rift with Assad started during the Arab Spring, when Erdogan advised Assad not to react towards the protestors with force. Of course Assad's regime did react with force, they were brutal towards the Syrian protestors. Since then there has been a real rift between the two. Erdogan even called for the removal of Assad from power at one point. Turkey of course have also backed rebel groups within Syria as you mentioned.

I think that Erdogan has beef, both with Assad and of course with the Kurdish groups within Syria, whom he classes as terrorists. It's true that the Kurds are hated by both Erdogan and Assad, so they are royally fucked in the grand scheme of things! It's ironic, because the Kurds were one of the main groups that helped to put an end to ISIS. I don't think that this kind of persecution is anything new to them though, they have had a history of persecution in both Turkey and Syria, as well as in Iran and Iraq of course. 

I reckon that ultimately, Erdogan wants to create a buffer zone between Turkey and the North of Syria, so he can keep the Kurds out of Turkey and also to keep Syrian forces out. I mean I think that Turkey could really ratchet up the fight against the Syrians after the death of these 33 Turkish soldiers. The Turkish public will be devastated by these deaths and lets face it, Erdogan is not one to hold back on retaliation is he? He will want to send a firm message to Assad, that there are consequences for such actions.

Edited February 28, 2020 by Michael

[Dr. Gonzo]

8 minutes ago, Michael said:

I think that Erdogan has beef, both with Assad and of course with the Kurdish groups within Syria, whom he classes as terrorists. It's true that the Kurds are hated by both Erdogan and Assad, so they are royally fucked in the grand scheme of things! It's ironic, because the Kurds were one of the main groups that helped to put an end to ISIS. I don't think that this kind of persecution is anything new to them though, they have had a history of persecution in both Turkey and Syria, as well as in Iran and Iraq of course. .

Kurdish history is basically a story of constant discrimination and also getting betrayed by military allies. Pretty sad stuff tbh.

[Michael]

13 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Kurdish history is basically a story of constant discrimination and also getting betrayed by military allies. Pretty sad stuff tbh.

Yes, they have had it difficult for centuries now, but especially in the last 100 years or so.

[Azeem]

Conflicting reports coming about who shot whose drown and Sus !

[Dr. Gonzo]

The Taliban have ended the peace deal they signed with the US last week. Apparently Afghanistan wasn't a part to the talks and the US made a commitment that Afghanistan would be doing a prisoner swap of 5,000 people they're holding. The Afghan government said they absolutely wouldn't be doing that.

Gotta be one of the shortest peace deals in history. And one demonstrating woeful incompetence.

[Azeem]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The Taliban have ended the peace deal they signed with the US last week. Apparently Afghanistan wasn't a part to the talks and the US made a commitment that Afghanistan would be doing a prisoner swap of 5,000 people they're holding. The Afghan government said they absolutely wouldn't be doing that.

Gotta be one of the shortest peace deals in history. And one demonstrating woeful incompetence.

Things like these were likely to happen but it won't effect peace for long term. Ashraf Ghani the current Afghan president will have no chance in being in power once US goes since he lost elections to Abdullah Abdullah a Persian speaking Tajik leader and he will likely form a decentralized government with the Taliban.

Ghani is trying to get attention by refusing to release 5000 prisoners he possibly wants US to give him something before they leave because he is the US's problem.

Edited March 3, 2020 by Azeem

[Harry]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The Taliban have ended the peace deal they signed with the US last week. Apparently Afghanistan wasn't a part to the talks and the US made a commitment that Afghanistan would be doing a prisoner swap of 5,000 people they're holding. The Afghan government said they absolutely wouldn't be doing that.

Gotta be one of the shortest peace deals in history. And one demonstrating woeful incompetence.

Is it making news at all in the US though? Corona virus seems to be dominating followed by democratic primary stuff,  and Trump's general crazinesss and bad appointments and decision-making.

[Azeem]

11 minutes ago, Harry said:

Is it making news at all in the US though? Corona virus seems to be dominating followed by democratic primary stuff,  and Trump's general crazinesss and bad appointments and decision-making.

Does an average American even care or know about what America does outside of America ? Never mind considering it in voting

[Eco]

11 minutes ago, Azeem said:

Does an average American even care or know about what America does outside of America ? Never mind considering it in voting

Short answer, no. 

We have a virus, a campaign to see who will go against Trump, China and the Bachelor. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

8 hours ago, Harry said:

Is it making news at all in the US though? Corona virus seems to be dominating followed by democratic primary stuff,  and Trump's general crazinesss and bad appointments and decision-making.

Yeah, but not the TV news

[Azeem]

Rumors that King Salman is dead and MBS arrested his brother and nephew over an attempted coup. 

[Michael]

18 hours ago, Azeem said:

Rumors that King Salman is dead and MBS arrested his brother and nephew over an attempted coup. 

There's so much infighting within that large royal family, it's like a mafia gang, with so many power struggles between several leading members. Mohammed bin Salman clearly has a lot of opposition within his family, which has led him to being quite ruthless, all in order to maintain his power. 

[Azeem]

6 hours ago, Michael said:

There's so much infighting within that large royal family, it's like a mafia gang, with so many power struggles between several leading members. Mohammed bin Salman clearly has a lot of opposition within his family, which has led him to being quite ruthless, all in order to maintain his power. 

MBS superseded Naif his cousin who was supposed to be the Crown Prince.

They just massively dropped oil prices

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Azeem said:

MBS superseded Naif his cousin who was supposed to be the Crown Prince.

They just massively dropped oil prices

 

[Azeem]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Stock markets dropping everywhere kibda shows how fragile and fear driven it is in the first place 

[Azeem]

7 hours ago, Azeem said:

MBS superseded Naif his cousin who was supposed to be the Crown Prince.

They just massively dropped oil prices

He is among those who are arrested

[Dr. Gonzo]

Of course the Saudis bring petrol prices down while my car is in for repairs so I can't go fill up with the low prices today. Bastards.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Netanyahu, the absolute scumbag, posted a clip from the film Pandemic and said it was absolute proof Iran was covering up the number of coronavirus deaths they’ve had. Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/netanyahu-shared-fake-tv-clip-pandemic-iran-hiding-coronavirus-deaths-2020-4?utm_source=reddit.com

What a scumbag. Pandemic sweeps across the world... better use it to push for a fucking war against a hard hit country struggling with the virus.

Having said that, I’m sure Iran is lying it’s arse off about the number of cases and deaths. But tbh at this point, I think with the state of leadership in the world we’re seeing a lot of that because we’ve got some of the most ill suited world leaders for a crisis like this.

[Azeem]

Isn't he also tested positive ?