The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Tommy]

15 hours ago, El Profesor said:

So guys, I made a list of books and podcasts (I love to make lists of books I want to read ) that help understand american intervention in Middle East. 

 

Some books: 

 

Overal History of Middle East

 

1) "Islam: A Short History", Karen Armstrong

2) "A Line in the Sand: The Anglo-French Struggle for the Middle East, 1914–1948", James Barr

3) "Lords of the Desert: The Battle Between the United States and Great Britain for Supremacy in the Modern Middle East", James Barr

4) "A Peace to End All Peace: The Fall of the Ottoman Empire and the Creation of the Modern Middle East", David Fromkin

5) "All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror", Stephen Kinzer

6) "Making the Arab World: Nasser, Qutb, and the Clash That Shaped the Middle East", Gerges Fawaz

 

 

Iraq

 

1) "Imperial Life in The Emerald City: Inside Iraq's Green Zone"; 

2) "The Man Who Pushed America to War: The Extraordinary Life, Adventures and Obsessions of Ahmad Chalabi", Aram Roston

3) "Saddam: King of Terror", Con Coughlin

4) "Inventing Iraq: The Failure of Nation-Building and a History Denied", Toby Dodge

5) "Red Zone: Five Bloody Years in Baghdad", Oliver Poole

6) "The Fall of Baghdad", Jon Lee Anderson

7) "The Iran-Iraq War", P. Razoux

  

 

Afghanistan

 

1) "Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History", Thomas J. Barfield

2) "Afghanistan: A Military History from Alexander the Great to the War against the Taliban", Stephen Tanner

3) "The American War in Afghanistan: A History", Carter Malkasian 

4) "The Great Gamble: The Soviet War in Afghanistan", Gregory Feifer

5) "Long Goodbye: The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan", Artemy  Kalinovsky

 

 

Podcasts

 "Blowback" - Season 1

"Conflicted" - Series of Episodes: Prophet´s Dilemma: The Sunni Shia Split 

"The Fault Line: Bush, Blair and Iraq" (Podcast)

"Conflicted" - Episode: Ghosts in the Mountain - The Soviet-Afghan War

Wow. Good job. 

But I feel like this is more up to my level:

[Waylander]

This is worth a look if only for the first 1.30 of the 6 minutes.

From 2011 - Congressman Ron Paul saying it was only the loss of face stopping the US getting out of Afghanistan and if they didn't it would be another decade and still a loss of face. He said you can't do nation building in a place where most see you as occupiers.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Does Qatar fund the Taliban like the Saudi royal family does? I only ask because Al Jazeera is weirdly upbeat about the Taliban being back in control.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Kind of easy to forget during this rapid collapse of the Western backed Afghan government & the Taliban's swift return to power in Afghanistan... but Lebanon is also going through what is possibly it's worst ecnomic crisis ever.

Massive inflation (which has gutted it's middle class - that was one of the fastest growing middle classes in Lebanon), banks cutting off people's access to their money, food shortages, water shortages, medicine shortages, homelessness on the rise, a government claiming it has no money left, extremely long power outages, fuel shortages, etc...

For many people, their lives in Lebanon have completely crumbled. It's very grim.

[Waylander]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Kind of easy to forget during this rapid collapse of the Western backed Afghan government & the Taliban's swift return to power in Afghanistan... but Lebanon is also going through what is possibly it's worst ecnomic crisis ever.

Massive inflation (which has gutted it's middle class - that was one of the fastest growing middle classes in Lebanon), banks cutting off people's access to their money, food shortages, water shortages, medicine shortages, homelessness on the rise, a government claiming it has no money left, extremely long power outages, fuel shortages, etc...

For many people, their lives in Lebanon have completely crumbled. It's very grim.

With Lebanon realise there are many undercurrents with political crises's over the years and a number of political players.

Yet as its biggest neighbour is Syria due you think this is mainly due to the Syrian conflict reducing mutual trade?

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, Waylander said:

With Lebanon realise there are many undercurrents with political crises's over the years and a number of political players.

Yet as its biggest neighbour is Syria due you think this is mainly due to the Syrian conflict reducing mutual trade?

Honestly, I think it may come from that massive explosion at Beirut's port last year - I don't think they've ever really recovered from that, and as Lebanon's biggest port (and they only had 2) - I think that's probably made a substantial impact on Lebanon's trade worldwide. Then of course, COVID had it's own serious impacts on global trade... and I think a country like Lebanon that felt other external pressures on trade would feel those issues more than most other countries. And I'm sure the Syrian conflict plays a part in that as well.

But before that explosion in the port, Lebanon had some serious economic issues generally - so I think it might be a bit simplistic to just pin all of this on the port explosion. Public sector debt in the country was at an all time high in 2019 before the explosion/pandemic. The banking sector had loaned out 3/4ths of all deposits made to the government and were facing liquidity issues. They hadn't seen GDP growth in over a decade (which is crazy, actually, considering how Lebanon's middle class was among the largest in the Middle East) & Lebanon's got issues with governmental competence and corruption (sort of a theme in the region, sadly) - neither of which really bode well for having a stable economy.

As you say, there's a lot of political tension/crisis's & religious and ethnic tensions also play a part in that as well.

[Waylander]

25 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Honestly, I think it may come from that massive explosion at Beirut's port last year - I don't think they've ever really recovered from that, and as Lebanon's biggest port (and they only had 2) - I think that's probably made a substantial impact on Lebanon's trade worldwide. Then of course, COVID had it's own serious impacts on global trade... and I think a country like Lebanon that felt other external pressures on trade would feel those issues more than most other countries. And I'm sure the Syrian conflict plays a part in that as well.

But before that explosion in the port, Lebanon had some serious economic issues generally - so I think it might be a bit simplistic to just pin all of this on the port explosion. Public sector debt in the country was at an all time high in 2019 before the explosion/pandemic. The banking sector had loaned out 3/4ths of all deposits made to the government and were facing liquidity issues. They hadn't seen GDP growth in over a decade (which is crazy, actually, considering how Lebanon's middle class was among the largest in the Middle East) & Lebanon's got issues with governmental competence and corruption (sort of a theme in the region, sadly) - neither of which really bode well for having a stable economy.

As you say, there's a lot of political tension/crisis's & religious and ethnic tensions also play a part in that as well.

That is about the length of the Syrian civil war which started in 2011.

Interesting about the Banking sector loans.

 

[Waylander]

3 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Does Qatar fund the Taliban like the Saudi royal family does? I only ask because Al Jazeera is weirdly upbeat about the Taliban being back in control.

I'm sure in one conflict Al-Jazeera took a US missile as did the Chinese embassy in the bombing of the former Yugoslavia in the 90's.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 minutes ago, Waylander said:

That is about the length of the Syrian civil war which started in 2011.

That's a good point - I didn't realise that, but yeah - I think that makes you very very right about the impact of trade along it's longest land border being stifled by the shitshow that is the Syrian civil war (what an ugly debacle that is, btw)

[Waylander]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

That's a good point - I didn't realise that, but yeah - I think that makes you very very right about the impact of trade along it's longest land border being stifled by the shitshow that is the Syrian civil war (what an ugly debacle that is, btw)

Yes Syria became very messy.

I think the West wanted to put boots on the ground but the UK electorate after seeing the mess of Iraq and Afghanistan said, 'No.'

That shook the US into taking a different path and then we saw the rise of Islamic militias that attacked both the FSA and Assad's forces. 

Other forces attacked Syria too like Al-Nusrah supported by Israel and forces probably linked with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. So Syria used its military treaty with Iran and so the Iranians are near Israel mainly in the Southern area which has angered Israel.

Now Pandoras box has been opened as the Kurdish area in the North is largely independent which has upset Turkey who was up to that point trying to take a slice of Northern Syria yet having the largest Kurdish population does not want the Kurds to expand further.

Russia is involved probably as Syria was one of their arms clients and the US is camped in the Syrian desert pumping oil that goes through the Kurdish area. 

Israeli air strikes have prompted Russia to give Syria a better missile defence system which has triggered Israel to say they will now use Cruise missiles.

Very messy indeed and Libya is not very settled either with it's own civil war situation. 

It could turn very hot very quickly if someone makes a bad move.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I reached out to my friend from uni yesterday, who was an Afghan refugee to Europe in the 90s right after the Taliban first took over... Today he's told me his dad is currently there  - and there's no real clear timetable on when he'll be able to leave the country. He'd hoped to be able to get out yesterday, but it wasn't possible (I'm not sure why - but seeing some of that chaos at the Kabul airport yesterday is a good indication of why it wasn't possible).

He's understandably distraught at the chaotic situation... and I don't know how the fuck I'd be feeling in his shoes. I hope he's able to say that his dad got out safely ASAP. Kinda scary times for many Afghans, but I think especially if you're not Pashtun you've got serious fears about the Taliban being back in power considering how the last time things played out. His dad is a brave man for going back to Afghanistan when it was always likely the Taliban would be back in charge - although I don't think he expected the situation to unfold the way it did.

[Azeem]

I'm pretty sure White House meetings before killing another county's general are also like this 

[Dr. Gonzo]

16 minutes ago, Waylander said:

Yes Syria became very messy.

I think the West wanted to put boots on the ground but the UK electorate after seeing the mess of Iraq and Afghanistan said, 'No.'

That shook the US into taking a different path and then we saw the rise of Islamic militias that attacked both the FSA and Assad's forces. 

Other forces attacked Syria too like Al-Nusrah supported by Israel and forces probably linked with Qatar and Saudi Arabia. So Syria used its military treaty with Iran and so the Iranians are near Israel mainly in the Southern area which has angered Israel.

Now Pandoras box has been opened as the Kurdish area in the North is largely independent which has upset Turkey who was up to that point trying to take a slice of Northern Syria yet having the largest Kurdish population does not want the Kurds to expand further.

Russia is involved probably as Syria was one of their arms clients and the US is camped in the Syrian desert pumping oil that goes through the Kurdish area. 

Israeli air strikes have prompted Russia to give Syria a better missile defence system which has triggered Israel to say they will now use Cruise missiles.

Very messy indeed and Libya is not very settled either with it's own civil war situation. 

It could turn very hot very quickly if someone makes a bad move.

 

I think the West staying as uninvolved as possible really would have been the best choice. I think the UK and EU had the right idea, I do think the US's support of some of these Jihadist groups is... let's just say questionable at best... I don't think these Saudi/Qatar backed groups are necessarily a good thing for Syrians or for regional stability on the whole.

Russia's involvement in Syria's been pretty heavy. The cynic in me thinks apart from Russia's geopolitical goal of challenging the US's hegemony in the region by backing Assad, also thinks Russia sees value in being so heavily involved because it gives them a lot of opportunities to conduct weapon tests in a massive ongoing crisis. There's also been a bit of a proxy war between Russia and Turkey - which I think spilled over a bit into the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict we saw late last year too, tbh. And the way that war concluded seemed to ultimately lead to Turkey having more free reign to go after Kurds in Syria, while Russia gets a bit more influence in areas it used to control in the Caucuses.

Iran's involvement has multiple levels, really. Part of it is Assad called on their military treaty for support. Another part of it is Iran is scared as fuck of these Wahabi/Salafist Jihad groups on their border... and another part of it is it's a battleground where Iran can engage in it's proxy wars with Saudi Arabia and Israel without putting too many Iranian lives at risk.

Israel have long called for regime change in Syria (and Iran), so this battleground against both Syrian forces/Iran's revolutionary guard/Iranian backed militias is an opportunity to fight battles it has long wanted to fight.

It's one of those conflicts where for me, as just some normal guy in the West with roots in the Middle East who wants to see some semblance of stability to where the Middle East can be a lot less chaotic, I look at all sides of the Syrian civil war and I think "hmm... I can't really see any good guys here." It's just an unpleasant shitshow, from my perspective.

Geopolitics is a really ugly thing, a lot of the time.

[Waylander]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think the West staying as uninvolved as possible really would have been the best choice. I think the UK and EU had the right idea, I do think the US's support of some of these Jihadist groups is... let's just say questionable at best... I don't think these Saudi/Qatar backed groups are necessarily a good thing for Syrians or for regional stability on the whole.

Agree.

5 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Russia's involvement in Syria's been pretty heavy. The cynic in me thinks apart from Russia's geopolitical goal of challenging the US's hegemony in the region by backing Assad, also thinks Russia sees value in being so heavily involved because it gives them a lot of opportunities to conduct weapon tests in a massive ongoing crisis. There's also been a bit of a proxy war between Russia and Turkey - which I think spilled over a bit into the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict we saw late last year too, tbh. And the way that war concluded seemed to ultimately lead to Turkey having more free reign to go after Kurds in Syria, while Russia gets a bit more influence in areas it used to control in the Caucuses.

Two good points there, firstly since this conflict Russia has been selling more of its missile defence systems like the S-400, so the war is benefiting them for sure.

Secondly, although aware of the Russia and Turkish concerns, I hadn't linked Armenia and the Kurds. My take is Erdogan is crazy and trying to create a greater Turkey and hence supporting Azerbaijan. Russia made a point saying they would get involved if Azerbaijan went beyond a certain point. There have been clashes in Northern Syria as the Syrian Army (S.A) was retaking lost territory. The Russians are not impressed with Turkish backed militias continuing to try and hold on to Syrian territory

The Russians allegedly told Assad it was pointless to try to take back Kurdish Syria, Assad did not accept that and has the S.A periodically shelling Turkish forces to protect Syrian Kurds. 

Personally think Assad has too much on his hands to really retake the Kurdish areas, think the Turkish backed militias in the north together with Erdogan's desire to get more territory and Israel will take too much effort to keep at bay.  

I'm sure you know we also have Iran's proxy in southern Lebanon with their large missile supplies, you can bet if a shooting war starts they will be heavily involved at some point.

 

 

 

[Waylander]

@Dr. Gonzo I was looking at Massoud in Afghanistan and came across Dari the Persian based language most widely spoken in Afghanistan. The language seems to be from a time when the Sassanids were dominant in both Iran and Afghanistan. 

Found that interesting were you aware of that?

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, Waylander said:

@Dr. Gonzo I was looking at Massoud in Afghanistan and came across Dari the Persian based language most widely spoken in Afghanistan. The language seems to be from a time when the Sassanids were dominant in both Iran and Afghanistan. 

Found that interesting were you aware of that?

I didn't really know how similar Dari was to Persian until I met the friend I mentioned earlier from Afghanistan, who's Tajik and one time he was on the phone with his mum (or his dad... or someone in his family) and I found I could pretty much understand everything he was saying  - but I'd been pretty ignorant of that fact until I met him at uni tbh. They're not exactly the same languages... but they're very close.

[Waylander]

Check this out: 

Afghanistan - Taliban Press Conference Notes

Notes taken during the just ended Taliban news conference (video, Pashtun+English overvoice) today held by Taliban spokesman Zabihullah.

- Starts with a Koran recitation congratulating the victorious and another one on unity.
- We had legitimate right to liberate the country.
- Pardoning all who have fought against us.
- We want no external or internal enemies.
- Strong Islamic and inclusive government.
- No Talib casualties in Kabul.
- Assures security in Kabul.
- Assures embassies of security.
- We want no chaos or inconvenience in Kabul.
- Confirms Talib only went into Kabul for security on streets. Rioters, thieves wanted to abuse Taliban name to search houses etc. 
- Assures security for all neighboring countries.
- Assures international community that no country will be harmed from Afghan soil. 
- Rights for women within framework of Sharia. Education, working etc allowed. 
- Will build infrastructure for Afghan economy. 
- Asks international community to contribute.
- Assures media activity. Can continue to report. But nothing against Islamic values. Should be impartial. Shall critique Talib work so Talib can improve.
- Media shall not work against national values or unity of the nation.

Questions round:

Q Aljazeerah: 
About women.

Talib: 
Women key part of society. Will work with them. Within framework of Islam.

Q: 
Security of contractors, translators who worked for U.S., others etc.?

Talib: 
We assure that all have been pardoned. No revenge. We don't want them to leave. We need their talents. Nobody will be interrogated or will have their houses searched.
All soldiers who have been fighting against us are pardoned.

Q Tolonews: 
Pardoning?

Talib:
Everyone is pardoned. Harm was done by Talib due to the war. Assures that such will no longer happen.

Q: 
About riots, thieves reports?

Talib:
We had to intervene in Kabul to stop that. Will disarm such people. Will bring back services.

Q:
?

Talib:
Negotiations took place in Doha for 18 month. But previous government sabotaged them and had plans for another six month war. 
We have instructed everybody to not enter other people's house. Government formation will soon happen and things will then be clear.

Q:
?

Talib:
There will be difference in what Talib did 24 years ago in government and what it will do in future. 
More developed now.

Q: 
a. Government formation? b. Borders?

Talib: 
a. Ongoing.

b. Borders are secured by Talib. No smuggling allowed.

...

Q:
?

Talib:
We have not one case of murders in provinces since we rule. Currently one kidnapping case. These will stop too.

Q:
Narcotics ?

Talib:
We will assure that narcotics will end. Lots of our youth use narcotics. From now on Afghanistan will be narcotics free. International help needed for alternative crops.

Q:
?

Talib:
We will have a strong government based on Islamic values. Still consulting on it. Will be inclusive.
Women will be able to work.

Q:
Foreign fighters in Afghanistan?

Talib:
Afghan soil will not be used against other countries. People who want to do that are not allowed on our ground.

Q:
Can women still work in the media?

Talib:
Everyone will be able to work. New government will issues laws regulating various fields.

Q:
Contacts with Abdullah, Hekmatyar, Karzai?

Talib:
Communicating with them. Who wants to serve the nation will not be ignored. Inclusive government.

Q:
International relations?

Talib: 
Want to have good relations with all.

END

Posted by b on August 17, 2021 at 15:50 UTC | Permalink

From MoonofAlabama.org

 

The only answer above that looks odd is about women working in the media, the response is vague suggesting to me they will not have women working in the media.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Saying women will be able to work "in the framework of Islam" can mean... a lot of different things. And this is one of the big issues of having zealots run a government.

Will it be like Iran, where there's definitely systemic oppression of women in terms of: headscarf laws, inequity in terms of marriage (and divorce - though, I doubt the Taliban will allow for divorce, tbh) & inheritance... but women aren't really barred from education/schooling/property ownership/driving. Will it be more like Saudi Arabia, where there's far more restrictions on what women can/can't do - but they're not prohibited from everything?

I think at some point, Zabihullah (or another representative) yesterday did an interview with an Afghan woman working for BBC - so I hope when they do take rights away from women (which, sadly, I think is inevitable under Taliban rule - you can already see it when little girls yesterday in Kabul went to school in full burkas)... they leave as much in tact, so that these women - while definitely living under religious oppression - can at least get an education and get work.

It is especially hard to take the Taliban at face value, especially now when they are aware they've got the eyes of the world upon them and they've learned that having an effective PR team is really important, but if any of this is true... it's at least a step in the right direction compared to life under the Taliban in Afghanistan 20 years ago.

It's still very far from ideal. But saying women can go to school and get jobs is a far cry from 20 years ago when women were basically forced to be kept in their homes - so I guess that's a better step than nothing. Also the claim that they want unity and inclusivity within the government - which I hope means an end to the persecution of Afghans based on religion or ethnicity.

It's really hard to take them at face value though... because it's the taliban and we've seen their rule in Afghanistan before.

[Tommy]

 

[Waylander]

It is difficult to know how this will unfold, I think it is safe to say women will not have so much freedom yet the words so far suggest more allowances than given before. The detail will be crucial to their sense of freedom.

I'm sure atrocities have taken place already though think this might not be policy yet nasty people on the Taliban side taking what they can at a point of a gun. That can happen in all victorious armies in the West the PR side kicks in very quickly and takes whatever action behind the scenes though sometimes the legal side catches up.. 

Edited August 18, 2021 by Waylander

[Azeem]

Ghani and his family given asylum by UAE on humanitarian grounds. Ghani reportedly left with 169$ mil. 

Not surprised UAE gave him asylum. The amount of cash he left with is catered to such people by network of banks & cartels and Dubai is a major hub of it. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

34 minutes ago, Khan of TF365 said:

Ghani and his family given asylum by UAE on humanitarian grounds. Ghani reportedly left with 169$ mil. 

Not surprised UAE gave him asylum. The amount of cash he left with is catered to such people by network of banks & cartels and Dubai is a major hub of it. 

I feel like the US should be asking for him to be handed over to be put in a prison cell and taking some of that money to put back in their treasury.

[Azeem]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I feel like the US should be asking for him to be handed over to be put in a prison cell and taking some of that money to put back in their treasury.

Dropping that money from helicopters on the Afghan refugee camps will be a lot more happy ending.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, Khan of TF365 said:

Dropping that money from helicopters on the Afghan refugee camps will be a lot more happy ending.

Oh for sure. Either way you slice it, he's really stolen from Afghanistan (even if that money is mostly from the US & NATO nations providing aid to his government.

Reports of 3 people killed and 12 people wounded after shots fired at anti-Taliban protests in Jalalabad.

[Dr. Gonzo]

21 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I reached out to my friend from uni yesterday, who was an Afghan refugee to Europe in the 90s right after the Taliban first took over... Today he's told me his dad is currently there  - and there's no real clear timetable on when he'll be able to leave the country. He'd hoped to be able to get out yesterday, but it wasn't possible (I'm not sure why - but seeing some of that chaos at the Kabul airport yesterday is a good indication of why it wasn't possible).

He's understandably distraught at the chaotic situation... and I don't know how the fuck I'd be feeling in his shoes. I hope he's able to say that his dad got out safely ASAP. Kinda scary times for many Afghans, but I think especially if you're not Pashtun you've got serious fears about the Taliban being back in power considering how the last time things played out. His dad is a brave man for going back to Afghanistan when it was always likely the Taliban would be back in charge - although I don't think he expected the situation to unfold the way it did.

He was able to get on a flight back to the UK!