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Dan

Tipping thread - 2017/18

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Dan    226

It's back. I thought while the activity wasn't booming, it still had a degree of interest and is worth keeping going. With the domestic season returning this weekend in England, what better time to get the new one going.

You know how to play* so get your tips in here.

* Incase you don't actually know how to play: 

 

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Dan    226
1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

So it has to be one bet of £10 on a single or double, we can't split the stake and we can't go for mad accumulators?

I'm happy to let people decide to be honest.

What do we think @Smiley Culture @Stan @Cannabis 

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Stan    868
13 hours ago, Dan said:

I'm happy to let people decide to be honest.

What do we think @Smiley Culture @Stan @Cannabis 

keep it as last season. Otherwise you'll get tits like me betting £1 every day for small wins on big accys and it'll probably be more difficult to keep track of for you if a few people do that. 

Stick to £10 per week to use on one single bet or one double. Monday to Sunday. 

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Dan    226

The logic came from the original idea being a tipping thread. It was basically just tipping the odd team to each other rather than doing big accumulators against each other.

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I can't wait to get this going any longer, so I'm gunna throw my virtual money out there, based on last season's rules. 

Derby County or Draw (vs Sunderland) £10 returns £16.00 @ 3/5 with Betway. 

The first few weeks of the season are a lottery and the opening weekend of the season is probably one of the hardest weekends out there for a selection but I'm going with a 'Double Chance' bet, which means I win as long as Sunderland don't. 

I'm basing this prediction based on the fact that Sunderland are a train wreck and Derby look, on paper at least, to have a good, settled side and they may actually do something this season. 

Sunderland are frankly a shambles on and off the pitch. Jermain Defoe, easily their best player, has left, as has Jordan Pickford and they've been replaced by James Vaughan and Jason Steele. Factor in the state of the players who've remained from their awful season last season and the fact you have players like Darron Gibson getting boozed up and slating his teammates, Sunderland look in a right mess. 

Derby on the other hand, look decent. Despite losing key players in Will Hughes, Tom Ince and Cyrus Christie, Derby look to have recruited well in Tom Huddlestone, Curtis Davies and Andre Wisdom and kept a nucleus of players for a few years now, indicating a settled side. 

I don't want to back Derby outright for this, as I say, it's the opening day of the season and I think 3/5 represents good value for playing it safer and backing the draw and Derby. 

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RandoEFC    368

I'll start with a risky double.

Chelsea to score in both halves @ 3.00 (2/1) AND Fulham v Norwich Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 (4/5). £10 returns £54 @ 5.40 (4.4/1) with Bet365.

I'm confident that Chelsea will want to win the Community Shield and I can't see Arsenal having the quality to keep them out. I had a look at a few of the markets here but Chelsea to score in both halves at 2/1 was by far the best value. Fingers crossed with Batshuayi in good form and Morata potentially making a debut, Chelsea can strike early and finish Arsenal off in the second half.

As for the second part, Fulham and Norwich were the joint highest scorers with Newcastle in last season's Championship. Their matches last season ended 2-2 and 3-1. Norwich have scored a lot in pre-season and both teams should have a run at at least the play-offs, so will want to set a marker down against a likely rival here.

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Storts    319

59830acb0f1c8_ScreenShot2017-08-03at12_34_20.thumb.png.f31561dd437cafa040a81957d3b14425.png

 

Gone for a double to start - Backing Cardiff and Wednesday to have big away wins on the opening day

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Dan    226

That's what I like to see Storts. I've got money on Cardiff making the top six. I'd like to see how many points Warnock would've gotten in a 46 game period with both Rotherham and Cardiff - both after taking over teams who were right near the bottom, I bet it'd be in the top six.

Anyway, mine...

Sunderland v Derby | 19/10 | I think Derby are a decent bet for the top six this year and Sunderland are still a bit of a mess. While it is at a different level, Sunderland haven't won in August or September since 2012 which is one of the most embarrassing stats I've ever heard. They are awful starters and what happened against Celtic, albeit in a friendly, as well as the Gibson rant following gives the impression they're a long way from sorting their act out. Rowett's a good manager, and how Sunderland are relatively comfortable favourites for this I have no idea.

AFC Fylde v Boreham Wood | 4/5 | This is so typical of me, on the Fylde hype train purely because I'm managing them on FM, but no really, they're flying up the leagues, walked the National League North last time out and have a relatively handy opening fixture. Home win.

£10 returns £52.20.

 

Other notable bets in my eyes are Forest Green to beat Barnet (12/11) and Aston Villa to beat Hull (evs). Those two added to the two above would return £218 from a tenner.

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RandoEFC    368
On 8/3/2017 at 0:09 PM, RandoEFC said:

I'll start with a risky double.

Chelsea to score in both halves @ 3.00 (2/1) AND Fulham v Norwich Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 (4/5). £10 returns £54 @ 5.40 (4.4/1) with Bet365.

I'm confident that Chelsea will want to win the Community Shield and I can't see Arsenal having the quality to keep them out. I had a look at a few of the markets here but Chelsea to score in both halves at 2/1 was by far the best value. Fingers crossed with Batshuayi in good form and Morata potentially making a debut, Chelsea can strike early and finish Arsenal off in the second half.

As for the second part, Fulham and Norwich were the joint highest scorers with Newcastle in last season's Championship. Their matches last season ended 2-2 and 3-1. Norwich have scored a lot in pre-season and both teams should have a run at at least the play-offs, so will want to set a marker down against a likely rival here.

Currently 1-0 with 10 minutes left and it was an own goal xD.

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Dan    226

Going to make a slight rule change here. You can have three £25's a season. As previously stated, they're optional, so obviously it works both ways should it lose then you'll take an even bigger hit. Use wisely!

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Dan    226

5988f9b59efe3_Week1-August7.thumb.PNG.1fb771ed5649334c0e20e9c0169ca7f5.PNG

Week one results are in, and it's a bit of a shocker unfortunately. There was just the one winner in Smiley Culture as his fairly safe bet of betting on Sunderland to not win a game of football in August came in - a result that had my slightly riskier one backfire at the same time. AFC Fylde also failed to win, and the two others I put along the side also failed to win. I normally do quite well for these on the opening day, so it was a shocker effort.

Rando unfortunately disappointed with 0/2, and Storts was let down by a disappointing Sheffield Wednesday falling to a late Preston goal. The unlucky loser of the week however was Stan, his realistic looking bet of resounding home wins for PSG and Celtic was let down by PSG only managing the 2, in a week where the French club stole the headlines by signing Neymar.

It's a poor start on the whole.

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RandoEFC    368

Going risky again this week with some Asian Lines:

Chelsea -2.0 Asian Handicap (vs Burnley) @ 2.200. If Chelsea win by three or more, this wins, if they win by two, it's a refund, anything else is a loss.

Everton v Stoke Under 1.0 First Half Goals @ 1.875. If there are no first half goals, this wins, if there is only one, it's a refund, if there's two or more, this loses.

So, if Chelsea win by 3 or more goals and Everton v Stoke is 0-0 at half time, £10 returns £41.20.

If Chelsea win by exactly 2 goals and Everton v Stoke is 0-0 at half time, £10 returns £18.75.

If Chelsea win by 3+ goals and Everton v Stoke has exactly 1 first half goal, £10 returns £22.

If Chelsea win by exactly 2 goals and Everton v Stoke has exactly 1 first half goals, £10 returns £10.

And if Chelsea fail to win, or Chelsea only win by 1 goal, or Everton v Stoke has 2+ first half goals, £10 returns £0.

Enjoy @Dan :D .

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Dan    226

I'll work it out no bother xD now I know how an Asian Handicap actually works. Never actually looked it up.

That's not a bad market. I'm fed up of having -1 for a game to end 1-0.

Edit: Scrap that, how does the Everton one produce any refund?

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RandoEFC    368
2 minutes ago, Dan said:

I'll work it out no bother xD now I know how an Asian Handicap actually works. Never actually looked it up.

That's not a bad market. I'm fed up of having -1 for a game to end 1-0.

Edit: Scrap that, how does the Everton one produce any refund?

It's a First Half Goal Line bet. Under 1.0 gives you a refund for 1 goal if it's an Asian Line. Under 0.5 is the same bet (win if there's no goals) without the chance for a refund when there's exactly one goal, so you get longer odds.

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The Asian handicap confuses me, I really should study it much more than I have (I've basically had a glance at it). I've heard a few people say it's very good and has decent long-term profitability. 

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Tranmere Rovers to beat Sutton United - 8/13 @ SkyBet

Quite simple reasoning behind backing the heavily favoured home side and division favourites here - home and away form. 

Tranmere's home form in last season's National League was only bettered by eventual champions Lincoln City, they won sixteen home games last term, drawing three and losing just four, averaging 1.86 goals and conceding an average of 0.82 goals per game. Rovers have started this season's home campaign in the same vein of form as last time round, beating Woking 3-1 in midweek.

Sutton are like Tranmere, they have great home form. However, their away form is nothing short of terrible. Sutton's plastic pitch is the reason for such good home form, they saw twelve wins at Gander Green Lane last season and started with a 2-0 win over Orient last weekend. Their away form last season yielded two wins and their first defeat on the road this season in midweek to Eastleigh is enough for me to not fancy them at Preston Park. 

£10 returns £16.15

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Dan    226

Crystal Palace v Huddersfield (or draw) | EVS | I really do think Huddersfield will get off to a bit of a flier, very nearly had them to win, but gone win or draw instead to be safe.

Nantes v Marseille | 11/10 | Nantes are already in disarray apparently, Ranieri not impressing the fans, against one of the big boys of the league. Don't expect him to be around there long if I'm honest.

£10 returns £42.

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Storts    319
3 hours ago, Stan said:

Screenshot_20170812-112725~01.png

£10 returns £113.08

Surely this can't count Dan? Doubles only...bending the rules a bit 

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Stan    868
24 minutes ago, Storts said:

Surely this can't count Dan? Doubles only...bending the rules a bit 

Been allowed before when one line has been like 'x amount of corners in Game A and Game B' and then done another line...? 

Up to Dan. Happy to void that if he wants and do another one tomorrow. 

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...Dan    58
1 hour ago, ...Dan said:

Risky one to start the season. Returns £102.

Screenshot_20170812-145738.png

Well...I was right that Burnley would score.

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Dan    226

Obviously I've lowered the Huddersfield price by having them or draw and they've gone and thumped them.

And yeah sorry Stan, that's barred.

Actually why am I saying sorry xD look at the results.

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Dan    226

5990dbaa656b5_Week2-August14.thumb.PNG.07027f56904e04af446bad84269a67df.PNG

Week two is up.

Deary fucking me.

I am the only winner this week, and given my odds were decent I have shot to the top of the table. If I had gone for Huddersfield to win, which was my initial plan rather than Huddersfield or draw, which was 4/1, I would have profited £95 this weekend and would've had the whole league in profit, but it wasn't to be. Another weekend of shit in real life for me, but on this I'm laughing. Standard.

@Smiley Culture looked like a safe bet with Tranmere, but they blew it in a surprise 0-1 loss.

Despite his lack of faith in Craig Shakespeare, @Cannabis had a feeling Leicester were going to surprise everyone and win at Arsenal on the opening day - and he wasn't too far off either. He got to witness first hand what being a Leicester fan away at Arsenal is like, as we suffered our 11th straight defeat there and our 3rd late loss on the trot. Sickener all round.

@Stan's cheeky effort that was turned away actually saw him have the second best week in the whole league.

It's a slow start for both @Toony & @...Dan also, as both have pretty shoddy opening efforts.

It was also losses for @RandoEFC & @Storts, Rando's fully deserved after making it so complicated, Storts again quite unlucky.

It's been a shocking effort so far with just 2 wins out of 17 tips. A tough to predict season so far? You bet.

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Dan    226

Leicester v Brighton | 8/11 | Leicester have generally put the so called lesser sides to bed at home and despite it being Brighton's first ever away game in the Premier League, I don't think it'll be any different here. I thought we showed a lot more in our game last week than they did.

Huddersfield v Newcastle | 6/4 | Huddersfield have a real feel good factor about them these days and, while Newcastle have come up with them, I don't think you can really say the same for them. They're missing players and have a manager who continues to publicly criticise their lack of business. I see Huddersfield winning this and I wouldn't be surprised if it's comfortable. I called Huddersfield to start this year well.

 

£10 returns £43.18.

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Storts    319
12 hours ago, Smiley Culture said:

Weymouth or Draw (vs Bishop's Stortford) - 4/6 @ Bet365 

£10 returns £16.66

Ha love the confidence 

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