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F1 2021 - Austrian GP - 2-4th July, 2021


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Mercedes will win more races this season and be competitive but Red Bull have won five races in a row. Monaco, Baku, Ricard, A1 Ring. A real range of tracks and Verstappen should have won all five races at a canter. Mercedes found something early on but they were only fastest at Portugal, Spain and maybe Imola in the dry.

The Red Bull has been fast out of the box every weekend. Mercedes have struggled to make their car work at some tracks. Many times they've fixed it in time for qualifying but not always. It's a complex car and every weekend they seem likely to be knocked off balance by setup problems, a bad pit stop, questionable strategy. Even if they avoid setbacks like this, they only have the second fastest car. I'll be amazed if their Silverstone upgrades take them past Red Bull overall. I can see them drawing level but the car appears to have that smaller operating window that makes things harder from them. They don't just have to catch up with Red Bull, they have to end up with a faster package, and by enough to counterbalance their setup problems, and they have to do it fast enough to have enough races left to overturn the points deficit.

The drivers standings flatter Mercedes as well. Until he damaged his floor today, Hamilton has had all the luck between Max's tyre failure in Baku and the safety car that rescued his race at Imola.

I'm not writing Mercedes off by any means but "because it's Mercedes" isn't a logical or evidence-based reason to think they'll turn it around beyond the fact that they've proven how good a team they are in the past, after all so have Red Bull. Maybe it's because the races have come in such quick succession that it doesn't feel as long since Mercedes won a race but 5 races in a row... I doubt there's been many or indeed any cases of that happening in the past without that team winning the championship. This is very different from 2018 where Mercedes and Ferrari were basically neck and neck and trading blows every other race depending on the track characteristics. And Red Bull are not Ferrari. And Verstappen isn't later-career Vettel.

It's a long long way from being over but for me Red Bull are crushing favourites for the championship at this point.

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