UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

56 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Lol just lol.  

It won’t pass Parliament as the majority don’t want to leave and the oppourtunitg yo rubbish this deal and campaign for a second referendum. 

Its all smoke and mirrors anyway because this is election positioning from Boris. 

Tories will say, look we had a deal, Labour, Lib dems SNP walked away and forced the extension. Give us a majority and we’ll get this deal agreed and leave by the end of the extension. 

The damage was by extended it without looking like seriously trying to leave risks the Brexit party chomping into Tory votes. 

 

May's deal was better than Boris's for us economically, so I have a hard time understanding why exactly Tories who weren't willing to back May's deal would be willing to jump onboard with this... other than election posturing. I think the Brexit party just want a hard Brexit so their commodities trading leader can make an absolute killing, and in the alternative if that's not going to happen they'd prefer to stay in the EU (which sounds like a paradox at first)… but because if we're still in the EU they still have their mission to get us out of the EU, thus they have political capital & Farage can still be paid handsomely to do nothing but stick two fingers up to the rest of Europe (and our country) as an MEP.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

It’ll pass narrowly but this won’t be the end of it. We will continue to fight!

If it passes narrowly, it will be over mate.

Long term maybe the UK rejoins the EU. But in doing so, we probably won't get any of the concessions the EU gave us when we first joined... so we'd still be comparatively worse off to how we are currently as an EU member. No disproportionate say in finance regulations and no pound sterling either. I've heard some remainers think this is the best option for us. I don't know why though.

[RandoEFC+]

Almost want it to get voted through tomorrow just so it's done. A part of me still wants the electorate to go through some fucking shit times as well to teach them to actually read up on facts next time they vote on something rather than voting based on emotion and soundbites.

But if BoJo delivers Brexit and calls an election he'll probably win a majority and it's been painful enough watching him as prime minister of this country for a few months so another 4 years and you can fuck right off.

[SirBalon]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If it passes narrowly, it will be over mate.

Long term maybe the UK rejoins the EU. But in doing so, we probably won't get any of the concessions the EU gave us when we first joined... so we'd still be comparatively worse off to how we are currently as an EU member. No disproportionate say in finance regulations and no pound sterling either. I've heard some remainers think this is the best option for us. I don't know why though.

We will be worse off in every respect unless you're very rich or in the money game and IT WILL BREAK UP THE UNION (UK)... I don't want to go into those details now because that's already out there on why and more will become evident as the deal is scrutinised even more which is where I now come into why it may not be all over even with that shit deal passing.

Firstly we have the Letwin Amendment which will be put through Parliament tomorrow before the vote on the deal takes place and that amendment will force the Government once again to ask for an extension so as the deal can be scrutinised because 48 hours on something as important and detrimental as this cannot be passed through as law and ratified without studying the over 500 pages this agreement contains. Ratified is an important detail to take into account here because tomorrows vote doesn't make leaving the EU with that deal LAW! It merely gives the government the right to then take the motion for a final vote on ratification where it will then (if passed) go through to the House of Lords so as it becomes law. Then it is sent to the EU where they sign off. The Letwin Amendment has also been put into place to make sure that the Government doesn't play a trick and take us out on a No Deal which is a serious risk as after tomorrow if Johnson's Deal is actually passed, the Ben Act (that's the law that forced BJ to seek an extension by tomorrow at 11:00am if a deal wasn't agreed so as to stop the Givernment from taking the UK out on a No Deal) will become null and void.

There are various routes the Letwin Amendment and another extension can take us where one of them is a confirmatory vote, in other words a People's Vote, a Second Referendum!

That's where I come to the second amendment that may be put to the House of Commons tomorrow morning which is this one that's just come through... 

Now, it's not sure if it will be admitted but the signs are it will and the rumours are that it would be voted on and accepted by the House of Commons which would then give us a whole new ball game.

Even if none of that succeeds on what I've just written, trust me... THIS AIN'T over by a long margin! It'll be difficult, but there are MANY more Remainers now than in 2016 and we WILL make ourselves be heard.

[SirBalon]

As I wrote last night...

PART ONE DONE!

LETWIN AMENDMENT PASSED!

Which means meaningful vote withdrawn no matter what the outcome of Johnson’s Deal. Always have faith in righteousness!

[SirBalon]

Now for the Peter Kyle amendment which although GREAT if approved. It wouldn’t matter that much if it wasn’t right now as it will be passed in the near future. 

 

[SirBalon]

So BoZo says he will NOT obey the law (Letwin Amendment just passed by the HoC) and will put his shit deal before the House next week. This is hilarious... What a BoZo 

The best bits are to come these following days where the charlatans are laid bare on all sides of the spectrum in British Politics. It’s End Game for all and everything relating to Brexit and our politicians of the day.

[The Artful Dodger]

I'm not really sure what's going on now, if the deal passes it doesn't really matter about this?

[Guest]

I don't get the letwin amendment what is it?

Edited October 19, 2019 by Guest

[SirBalon]

3 hours ago, The Artful Dodger said:

I'm not really sure what's going on now, if the deal passes it doesn't really matter about this?

I've explained it pretty well in my previous posts. Many ministers asked for an assesment on what Johnson's Deal could pertain due to the fact they were given a 500+ page deal to study in 48hrs and then vote on. Now, if I have to somehow state my own opinion as singular on how that's ridiculous then I am indeed baffled. Due to this Oliver Letwin (Tory MP who had the whip withdrawn for voting against No Deal in the Ben Act) put through an amendment to be voted on before the Meaningful Vote on BJ's deal today meaning that he (Johnson) would be FORCED to seek for an extension due to the fact the Ben Act would expire after today under the proviso that the Government come up with a deal before the deadline date and hour. In other words, MPs like Letwin didn't trust the Government and habitual liar Boris Johnson on the fact this was a trick to execute No Deal which is what BJ said a few weeks back that "I'd rather die in a ditch than not execute No Deal". 

This also opens the pathway for a Second Referendum on a side note.

Letwin (curiously) after his amendment passed today said that he will be voting for Johnson's Deal when it's put before the HoC.

Impact assemsnts can now be scrutinised on this deal. That's what's going on.

The problem here is that joe public seem to continue to think this is a binary issue when it isn't and never has been.

WE WILL NOT LET OUR LIVES BE ALTERED BY IDIOTS! That's the crux of it.

[Guest]

From what I understand (in laymen's terms)the letwin ammendment basically means they have to vote on all the individual parts of the agreement instead of the agreement as a whole to make sure they are all legal and possible to implement? 

@RandoEFC @SirBalon @Dr. Gonzo

[SirBalon]

1 hour ago, Gunnersauraus said:

From what I understand (in laymen's terms)the letwin ammendment basically means they have to vote on all the individual parts of the agreement instead of the agreement as a whole to make sure they are all legal and possible to implement? 

@RandoEFC @SirBalon @Dr. Gonzo

Not really as that would take forever considering it's almost 600 pages of legislation and wishlists (curiously workers rights has come under wishlists)... Each part will be scrutinised as seen fit by MPs in the HoC and then once the EXTENSION has been applied for and granted, only then will they vote on thr deal. BoZo is trying to force the meaningful vote for Monday but it's pretty damned sure that until the extension is granted and agreed that John Bercow won't allow it.

[RandoEFC+]

The only reason Johnson is so desperate to get the deal through quickly is because of all the bluster about how he absolutely will deliver Brexit on 31 October. It's an ego trip on his part. If his deal is so great then what's the harm in waiting 3 more months? It's not unreasonable for parliament to expect more than a few days to make sure the deal is actually good for us, which it probably isn't given that it appears that Johnson has basically decided at the last minute that he needs a deal at all costs for election reasons, and has gone in and spent a matter of days negotiating with the EU meaning that the deal is probably pretty bad.

I know we're all fed up of hearing about Brexit but it really is worrying how many people don't realise how much more fed up they could end up being with a lot of things if we prioritise rushing through a bad Brexit just because Johnson needs it to be done on 31 October, instead of making sure we get it right (or as right as Brexit can be).

[SirBalon]

15 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

The only reason Johnson is so desperate to get the deal through quickly is because of all the bluster about how he absolutely will deliver Brexit on 31 October. It's an ego trip on his part. If his deal is so great then what's the harm in waiting 3 more months? It's not unreasonable for parliament to expect more than a few days to make sure the deal is actually good for us, which it probably isn't given that it appears that Johnson has basically decided at the last minute that he needs a deal at all costs for election reasons, and has gone in and spent a matter of days negotiating with the EU meaning that the deal is probably pretty bad.

I know we're all fed up of hearing about Brexit but it really is worrying how many people don't realise how much more fed up they could end up being with a lot of things if we prioritise rushing through a bad Brexit just because Johnson needs it to be done on 31 October, instead of making sure we get it right (or as right as Brexit can be).

And EU source this very afternoon in Spain said that Johnson’s Deal is terrible for the UK, specifically for the less privileged and would even effect middle classes. He added that Johnson had had to concede on many areas so as to create a deal that was acceptable for the EU at such short notice and that at no moment or anywhere in this revised May’s Deal has the EU conceded on anything as the Northern Ireland fix was one they offered to Theresa May who rejected it as it would lead to the break-up of the Union.

Anyway...

 

[RandoEFC+]

1 minute ago, SirBalon said:

He added that Johnson had had to concede on many areas so as to create a deal that was acceptable for the EU at such short notice

This was very obvious straight away. It was like on Monday he and his boys decided their new game plan was to get a deal for their own selfish reasons. He's had months to get it sorted yet he left it until the last few days. If he was serious about getting a good deal he'd have been over there the day after he became PM. People believe what they want to believe though and some Brexit voters actually believe it's good for us. I can't fathom this Brexit at all costs mentality though. It's this worrying thing again that people are more bothered about their version of democracy "winning" than they are about the actual, feasible consequences of Brexit.

[Guest]

@SirBalon so basically what the amendment is is (in simple terms) parliament saying we will vote on your deal but we want 3 months to scrutinise it so you need to ask for an extension?

[The Artful Dodger]

Do people think there is genuinely way to actually Remain?

[SirBalon]

1 hour ago, Gunnersauraus said:

@SirBalon so basically what the amendment is is (in simple terms) parliament saying we will vote on your deal but we want 3 months to scrutinise it so you need to ask for an extension?

It doesn’t mean they’ll vote on the deal, but if you mean that they could if it turns out to he beneficial, then yes. But it won’t as has been said by insiders. It’s a shit deal, worse than May’s.

[SirBalon]

57 minutes ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Do people think there is genuinely way to actually Remain?

Of course there is. There are two ways... One is extremely unlikely which is if the Lib Dems win a GE as in their manifesto they won’t even take it to the people and just revoke A50 and remain and the second is very likely although difficult to implement unless a decent amount of time is offered on an extension which is the second referendum. That would end with remain guaranteed right now.

[SirBalon]

People power! Who knows what will happen but it’s consoling to know there are great people here amongst us!!!

People from all over the UK by the way... I was amongst Welsh, Scottish and a bunch of lads from Birmingham.

[Guest]

2 hours ago, SirBalon said:

It doesn’t mean they’ll vote on the deal, but if you mean that they could if it turns out to he beneficial, then yes. But it won’t as has been said by insiders. It’s a shit deal, worse than May’s.

I'm still very confused on what the letwin amendment is. @RandoEFC you're a teacher explain it to me in simple terms. 

Ok I think I may have got it. Basically the letwin amendment means that the government has to put Johnson's deal through the house of lords and make it law it can't get through on a indicative vote. So basically the  letwin amendment  means they have to ask for an extension because we can't leave with no deal  (the Ben agreement)

So they have to go through it scrutinise it and vote it in the house of lords and make it law or(more likely) not.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2019 by Guest

[Guest]

6 hours ago, SirBalon said:

I've explained it pretty well in my previous posts. Many ministers asked for an assesment on what Johnson's Deal could pertain due to the fact they were given a 500+ page deal to study in 48hrs and then vote on. Now, if I have to somehow state my own opinion as singular on how that's ridiculous then I am indeed baffled. Due to this Oliver Letwin (Tory MP who had the whip withdrawn for voting against No Deal in the Ben Act) put through an amendment to be voted on before the Meaningful Vote on BJ's deal today meaning that he (Johnson) would be FORCED to seek for an extension due to the fact the Ben Act would expire after today under the proviso that the Government come up with a deal before the deadline date and hour. In other words, MPs like Letwin didn't trust the Government and habitual liar Boris Johnson on the fact this was a trick to execute No Deal which is what BJ said a few weeks back that "I'd rather die in a ditch than not execute No Deal". 

This also opens the pathway for a Second Referendum on a side note.

Letwin (curiously) after his amendment passed today said that he will be voting for Johnson's Deal when it's put before the HoC.

Impact assemsnts can now be scrutinised on this deal. That's what's going on.

The problem here is that joe public seem to continue to think this is a binary issue when it isn't and never has been.

WE WILL NOT LET OUR LIVES BE ALTERED BY IDIOTS! That's the crux of it.

I thought Johnson wanted to leave with a deal but would leave with no deal of neceasary?

Edited October 19, 2019 by Guest

[RandoEFC+]

Johnson has sent an unsigned letter to the EU requesting an extension but also making it clear it isn't his letter, it's parliaments letter.

To be fair I think it's a fair way of abiding by the law without compromising on his promises as a leader.

[Fairy In Boots]

8 hours ago, SirBalon said:

People power! Who knows what will happen but it’s consoling to know there are great people here amongst us!!!

People from all over the UK by the way... I was amongst Welsh, Scottish and a bunch of lads from Birmingham.

Probably screaming abuse at Mogg and his kid no doubt. 

Also: 

https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/ComRes_ITN_Brexit-Referendum-Poll_Oct-19-2.pdf

you and as many toddlers from around the U.K. can keep up your quarterly hissy fit March through London, it matters little the largest poll since the referendum suggests Brexit is still the preference. 

If they don’t split the Brexit vote (which they will) Brexit will win again. To anyone that thinks our MP’s aren’t actively hampering this process 

when the election comes it will be a bloodbath for those that didn’t do what the people want. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

12 hours ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Do people think there is genuinely way to actually Remain?

No. And I think you know I’d like there to be one. I can’t see a second referendum happening. The only things I can see are kicking the can down the road and try to negotiate further or a hard Brexit on the 31st.

The only way I really see us remaining is if we perpetually kick the can down the road. But how long can we do that?