US 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary Race

[Harry]

So the jostling and posturing has begun in the race for the democratic nomination for the presidential elections in 2020, where someone will be seeking the opportunity to run against Trump.

Trump is already the favourite for re-election but there are some quality candidates within the democratic pool that could give him a run for his money - you just need to be able to spot them through the crowded field (Currently sitting at 20 declared candidates).

An introduction to those in the race, using latest polling data as my sort function:

Joe Biden, male, 76yo, 29%

From Delaware, Former 7-term senator, and 2-term vice president for Barack Obama. Phenomenally experienced, high profile, and a safe pair of hands, however has been recently called into question for making some women uncomfortable in the way he has embraced them. He's a relatively centrist neoliberal so whilst not hugely popular with progressives he may do well in states narrowly lost to Trump.

Bernie Sanders, male, 77 yo, 23%

Independent senator from Vermont. Decades of experience in lower and upper house. Democratic Socialist. Class warrior. One of the most ideologically extreme candidates but has had a huge impact on the mean policy positions of the democratic party since his failed bid to secure the nomination in 2016, and is very well known. Very popular with the left wing of the party, but would be seen by some as a very risky option economically. 

Kamala Harris, female, 54 yo, 8.5%

First term senator, and former attorney general of California. A true diversity candidate being both female and african-american, and well regarded. Has proven to be more left wing than I expected in her policy positions so far, with education reform a big focus. Relatively low profile so has potential to grow into the race.

Pete Buttigieg, male, 37 yo, 7.5%

Second term Mayor of South Bend, Indianna, former Afghanistan veteran, highly intellectual, rhodes scholar, and a married homosexual. Buttigieg was the least known candidate to enter the race, but has risen through the ranks rapidly in the past 2 months with his charismatic oratory skills, and genuine and candid responses to questions. Another one with big growth potential.

Elizabeth Warren, female, 69 yo, 6.5%

Second term senator for Massachusetts, and Harvard Law professor. Warren has been one of the more passionate senators, and the most outspoken. Already an established name, and seen to be one of the more progressive candidates, she has already put out some big ideas, such as a wealth tax, proposed on those worth $50m+ to fund a number of worthwhile initiatives. She will likely be unpalettable to the moderates within the party.

Beto O'Rourke, male, 46, 6.3%

Two term congressman from El Paso, Texas, who rose to fame in the past year in his ultimately unsuccessful Texas Senate bid against Ted Cruz. One of the less progressive candidates, but the one leading the pack in talking about immigration reform.

Other candidates

Cory Booker - 3.5%

Amy Klobuchar - 1.5%

Andrew Yang - 1.5%

Julian Castro - 1.3%

John Hickenlooper - 1.0%

Kristen Gillibrand - 0.8%

Tim Ryan - 0.7%

Tulsi Gabbard - 0.5%

Jay Inslee - 0.3%

John Delaney - 0.3%

For a better summary check out: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/2020-democrat-candidates-771735/

[Cicero]

Beto fucked himself when the left found out how much he's donated to charities. 

[Harry]

@Cicero

I'm not that into Beto tbh. Strategically a popular Texan could be a good choice for the general election but could he turn it blue? I doubt it.... 

For me the more interesting candidates are Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, Yang, Gabbard.

 

[Cicero]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

I'm not that into Beto tbh. Strategically a popular Texan could be a good choice for the general election but could he turn it blue? I doubt it.... 

For me the more interesting candidates are Sanders, Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, Yang, Gabbard.

 

Interesting indeed. Bernie now wants felons to vote? 

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, Cicero said:

Interesting indeed. Bernie now wants felons to vote? 

Not my preferred candidates but the ones either with personally or throwing some of the more interesting ideas around. 

Bernie for example would be a terrible candidate. 

[Azeem]

I would have voted for Trump again

[Inverted]

Bernie-Warren is my realistic preference. 

Ideally I'm almost kind of leaning to Warren but Bernie's built a bigger following already. 

In reality it's probably going to be some centrist hack and we'll get Trump again until he gets bored/the dementia gets too far to hide. 

[Cicero]

Student debt relief is also an interesting concept. Aside the sneaky socialist implementation, what about those that actually worked to pay off their debt? Do they receive reparations? 

[6666]

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard are potentially very good. Beto O'Rourke is a great talker but people might not see him as credible. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker are typical Democrats and the DNC probably favour Kamala Harris. Don't know anything about the rest of them.

Democratic primaries aren't as entertaining as the shit shows known as the Republican primaries but I'm sure it'll still be interesting.

[Kowabunga]

Liz Warren looks very good at bringing specific and detailed progressive policies to the table but the native ancestry cringe-fest was ridiculous and it would be bound to haunt her in a potential run against Trump.

In any case, if not for the age of Sanders, a Sanders-Warren/Warren-Sanders ticket would be a thing to see.

Kamala Harris looks like a "middleground democrat" with decent charisma (thus a compromise choice).

Say "no" to Biden.

10 hours ago, Cicero said:

Bernie now wants felons to vote? 

Why not?

[Harry]

8 hours ago, 6666 said:

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Tulsi Gabbard are potentially very good. Beto O'Rourke is a great talker but people might not see him as credible. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker are typical Democrats and the DNC probably favour Kamala Harris. Don't know anything about the rest of them.

Democratic primaries aren't as entertaining as the shit shows known as the Republican primaries but I'm sure it'll still be interesting.

Pete Buttigieg might be worth a look.

He'd be my bet for winning the nomination at this stage. 

Probably the most charismatic candidate from what I've seen, but seems to be making the focus of his current talking points around sharing his values rather than policy. Reducing partisanship in the supreme court, taking back ownership from the right of the ideas of freedom and Christian values which have become very right wing these days. 

Was in last place a month ago but after a few decent answers at a CNN town Hall gained him more media attention he has really risen in the polls. Seen as the rising star amongst the pack and still an unknown to so many which gives a decent upside.

 

 

[Harry]

23 hours ago, Kowabunga said:

Liz Warren looks very good at bringing specific and detailed progressive policies to the table but the native ancestry cringe-fest was ridiculous and it would be bound to haunt her in a potential run against Trump.

In any case, if not for the age of Sanders, a Sanders-Warren/Warren-Sanders ticket would be a thing to see.

Kamala Harris looks like a "middleground democrat" with decent charisma (thus a compromise choice).

Say "no" to Biden.

Why shouldn't inmates get to vote?

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1120535516984881159?s=20

[Inverted]

I'm not at all impressed by Kamala Harris' background in justice but she seems reasonably ambitious on policy and, being a black woman, she would shut up a lot of the centrist idpol types who reject the most radical candidates like Bernie and Warren for not being focused on race. 

Which is slightly stupid when Harris has spent her career enthusiastically locking up young black men, but hey, idpol is a hell of a drug. 

A black woman can lock up thousands of minorities for minor crimes and be a hero for racial progress.

An old white guy can promise to radically reform the entire economic system that crushes minority communities and be vilified. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I think I like Andrew Yang the best, but he hasn't got a hope in hell

[Azeem]

I would love to see females being head of all the major powers of the world in this way we won't have wars rather bunch of jealous governments not talking to each other 

[6666]

18 hours ago, Harry said:

Pete Buttigieg might be worth a look.

He'd be my bet for winning the nomination at this stage. 

Probably the most charismatic candidate from what I've seen, but seems to be making the focus of his current talking points around sharing his values rather than policy. Reducing partisanship in the supreme court, taking back ownership from the right of the ideas of freedom and Christian values which have become very right wing these days. 

Was in last place a month ago but after a few decent answers at a CNN town Hall gained him more media attention he has really risen in the polls. Seen as the rising star amongst the pack and still an unknown to so many which gives a decent upside.

Him being gay puts him in a tough spot and that's even before we get to the insanity of what Republicans will be saying against him if he was the Democratic candidate. It shouldn't count against him but it massively will.

[Harry]

2 hours ago, 6666 said:

Him being gay puts him in a tough spot and that's even before we get to the insanity of what Republicans will be saying against him if he was the Democratic candidate. It shouldn't count against him but it massively will.

I don't think it will hurt that much at all mate. He's from Mike pences home state, and was reelected as mayor there whilst being openly homosexual. He's also Christian and deals with questions around that point pretty often and ironically is probably the most Christian value oriented of the candidates.

What will hurt him I think is being male and that whilst many democratic voters would like the idea of a gay president as a diversity win, many will see the need for a female president as a bigger priority. I think some will actually see his popularity as a reason to get their neck up on gender issues at the inference people would appear to be more accepting of a gay male president than a female one.

 

[Harry]

9 hours ago, Inverted said:

I'm not at all impressed by Kamala Harris' background in justice but she seems reasonably ambitious on policy and, being a black woman, she would shut up a lot of the centrist idpol types who reject the most radical candidates like Bernie and Warren for not being focused on race. 

Which is slightly stupid when Harris has spent her career enthusiastically locking up young black men, but hey, idpol is a hell of a drug. 

A black woman can lock up thousands of minorities for minor crimes and be a hero for racial progress.

An old white guy can promise to radically reform the entire economic system that crushes minority communities and be vilified. 

There's but of a herd mentality about the current pack which means the independent thinkers are less obvious.

I've been watching a lot of Kamala Harris lately. She's got the best fundamentals of the candidates but I get the sense her current policy platform is a fair bit to the left of her own beliefs. This would leave me concerned whether she'd really follow through once in the office.

 

[Inverted]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

There's but of a herd mentality about the current pack which means the independent thinkers are less obvious.

I've been watching a lot of Kamala Harris lately. She's got the best fundamentals of the candidates but I get the sense her current policy platform is a fair bit to the left of her own beliefs. This would leave me concerned whether she'd really follow through once in the office.

 

I'm disturbed generally by the worry that a lot of prominent Dems are posturing far to the left of where they really are, just to avoid being totally outdone on policy by Sanders and Warren. 

If Sanders and Warren get pushed out of the way, it will be interesting to see what happens. 

[Harry]

38 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I'm disturbed generally by the worry that a lot of prominent Dems are posturing far to the left of where they really are, just to avoid being totally outdone on policy by Sanders and Warren. 

If Sanders and Warren get pushed out of the way, it will be interesting to see what happens. 

Sanders and Warren are both their own people that's for sure. 

But Sanders still seems to struggle to connect with African American voters and gets pretty calculative/evasive on subjects like reparations.

He's comfortable on the subject of equality, and exceptional at speaking to it, but he does get less comfortable on other subjects.

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 26/04/2019 at 19:16, Inverted said:

I'm disturbed generally by the worry that a lot of prominent Dems are posturing far to the left of where they really are, just to avoid being totally outdone on policy by Sanders and Warren. 

If Sanders and Warren get pushed out of the way, it will be interesting to see what happens. 

They absolutely are posturing to the left of their positions. Harris’s background is one of being a very centrist, basically moderate republican type of democrat. Biden’s got a long long long history of being that type of democrat. Klobuchar (I think that’s how it’s spelled but I’m not going to make sure) is pretty much the same - that’s sort of her main pull in this big list of candidates some of whom are much more to the left than a traditional dem presidential platform.

I think Tulsi Gabbard is the worst of the bunch though. She says things that are very progressive, but there’s also a strange group of support she has that makes me really not trust her - a lot of far right pseudo-libertarians people seem to really really like her. Also her support of Modi in India is a bit weird for someone who has her supposed policy priorities. It makes me very suspicious of her tbh

[Inverted]

 

Very impressed by this quote. If people worked out how to consistently wrap-up leftist, quite technical policies in a populist package, we would be on to a winner. 

You have to snap the lower-middle class out of the paranoia that redistribution is a threat to them, and get them to realise that they are much closer to the bottom of the pile than to the top. 

[Inverted]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.businessinsider.com/pete-buttigieg-falsely-accused-of-sexual-assault-jacob-wohl-stunt-2019-4

Conservative activists have been caught on tape planning to create fake sexual assault claims against Buttigieg.

[Harry]

21 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

They absolutely are posturing to the left of their positions. Harris’s background is one of being a very centrist, basically moderate republican type of democrat. Biden’s got a long long long history of being that type of democrat. Klobuchar (I think that’s how it’s spelled but I’m not going to make sure) is pretty much the same - that’s sort of her main pull in this big list of candidates some of whom are much more to the left than a traditional dem presidential platform.

I think Tulsi Gabbard is the worst of the bunch though. She says things that are very progressive, but there’s also a strange group of support she has that makes me really not trust her - a lot of far right pseudo-libertarians people seem to really really like her. Also her support of Modi in India is a bit weird for someone who has her supposed policy priorities. It makes me very suspicious of her tbh

I think Klobuchar has been one of the more honest candidates though no? She's actually right of centre anywhere outside America imo but she's not pretending to be progressive, basically putting forward an agenda of pragmatism and incremental change. Likely to be despised by the more progressive democrats who are fed a healthy diet of media to the tune of "what have we got from putting forward all these shitty centrist democratic candidates for the last 3 decades"...

Biden I'm sure will be more dressed up to be progressive in specific areas targeted to score maximum points with the pockets of voters that he believes are up for grabs. But I think he's just running because he thinks he can win and that beating Trump and limiting the damage inflicted by Republicans to four years is his priority. I don't expect him to be driving big policy arguments and focus more on Trump than some of the others will but who knows.

Harris without doubt is taking a calculative approach on policy design. Probably everyone does this to an extent but I do get a fairly authentic impression from Pete Buttigieg, as I do from Warren or from Bernie when he's speaking to the causes he's most passionate about, as compared with her.

I've followed her less than most of the other candidates but I think Gabbard is one of those with a cause or two she's totally passionate about which are more progressive aligned but then could be quite erratic in other areas. 

It's interesting in any case. The town halls have been good so far and the debates will be sure to move the polls in an interesting way.

Since Biden officially entered the race he's moved up in the polls and appears to have done it at the expense of Sanders, and O rourke as well as punching a small bit from every other candidate. 

[Inverted]

Gabbards biggest supporters seem to be completely focused on foreign policy which is bizarre imo. 

Domestic reform should be number one concern, and in any case there's far too much internal blockage and vested power in the US foreign policy scene to make it realistic to effect any lasting change without serious reordering at home first.