Yep, latest they can leave it is January 2025.
I'd be surprised if it was early July.
Think the earliest it'd be is Aug/Sept, but knowing how Tories like to double/triple-down, they'll just kick the can down the road and perhaps wait til Nov/Dec.
I usually back Harry Kane for every major tournament, but given he's played against such poor opposition on a weekly basis over the last year I do wonder if he's going to be able to raise his game to the levels needed to claim the golden boot.
An outsider may be Cristiano Ronaldo if Portugal progress far in this tournament. Roberto Martinez has fixed a formation where Ronaldo isn't a hindrance to a team that won all there qualifiers. Romelu Lukaku scored the most goals in qualifiers but Belgium's opponent look slightly more difficult than Portugal's on paper.