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21 minutes ago, nudge said:

I don't believe a single word Mercedes or Red Bull say regarding their own or their opponent's car in public. But that Mercedes indeed looks very bouncy still.

Not sure why you don't believe what Lewis is saying. Just because he always says his tires have gone and then does the fastest lap 😀

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Testing is over - Max Verstappen ends up with the fastest time with a 1:31.720.

I'm basing this mostly on what I've read and what I've seen watching most of this final four hour session, but it looks like Red Bull and Ferrari are in the best shape with Mercedes not far off, McLaren further back in 4th and then really not sure about the rest. Hopefully this means there isn't necessarily a "slowest car" this season and the midfield will mix and match depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the cars and how they match up with the different tracks. There aren't many seasons of F1 where you avoid having a team or two at the back who you can guarantee go out in Q1 every weekend. It would be cool to see all three sessions of qualifying become a really good contest.

Red Bull probably go into the first race as favourites. They've had good reliability and the car vitally looks fairly smooth and well-balanced in different fuel loads, etc. They were struggling in the slow corners but an aerodynamic update today seems to have really done the trick for them. The garage barely bothering to conceal their pleasure.

Ferrari are still right up there. Seem to be clear of any real weakness over the course of the two tests. Leclerc ended up 0.7s off Verstappen's fastest time but didn't do a run on the softest tyre like the Red Bulls. Obviously these times need to be taken with a pinch of salt in testing but they've been up there the whole time.

Mercedes are playing up their difficulties but I don't think they're inventing them. The car looks like a handful on the onboard camera and they're suffering worse with the bottoming out than the other two top teams. Still looks like they've got some good pace with a lighter car, I wouldn't put them far off the top two teams and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them sort out their problems by race weekend. I think the title fight is probably limited to these three teams with Mercedes a close but definite third favourite out of the three for now.

McLaren have had a difficult test. Aside from Ricciardo's Covid-19 diagnosis, they had problems with brake temperatures which left them unable to complete a race distance until today, but Andreas Seidl admitted they'd still have to manage that problem to complete a full race. There's still some pace but they've slipped back over the course of this test.

I can't really order the rest. Alonso put in the fastest of the lower fuel times towards the end of the afternoon but had better track conditions and softer tyres than many of those who did comparable performance runs. Alpine and Aston Martin haven't grabbed any headlines. Williams have shown some pace and decent reliability throughout both tests but nothing sensational. The Haas is definitely better than last year and they should be able to compete against the other teams in this category. Their car along with the Alfa Romeo looked pretty well-balanced to me, whereas the Alpha Tauri and Williams looked a real handful this afternoon. Latifi and Tsunoda were both locking up all over the place. None of these teams look absolutely hopeless though. I don't think we've got a 2019-2020 Williams or 2021 Haas whipping boy team on our hands.

Finally, it looks to me as if all ten cars should be covered by a gap of about 1.5s-2s. This is good because when there's a major rule change you can get some teams really fucking it up and being several seconds off the pace before the field creeps back together over the course of a few years. Overall, I think we've got an interesting and competitive season on our hands. And I definitely need to go and amend some of my predictions. xD

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So from these various long runs we might deduce the Red Bull is faster than the Ferrari which in turns is faster than the Mercedes which may – or may not – be faster than the McLaren. But the McLaren didn’t do many long runs.

 

The Haas is slower than the Mercedes (and by extension the McLaren) but would appear to be slightly faster than the Alpine which is faster than the Aston Martin and the AlphaTauri which in turn is faster than the Alfa Romeo which edges out the Williams!

 

A lot of assumptions in there, but that’s the best we got…

 

From Mark Hughes...

 

 

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6 minutes ago, RondónEFC said:

The Haas is slower than the Mercedes (and by extension the McLaren) but would appear to be slightly faster than the Alpine which is faster than the Aston Martin and the AlphaTauri which in turn is faster than the Alfa Romeo which edges out the Williams!

calculation-math.gif

 

Can't wait for next week to get a real picture. 😅

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We'll have to wait till Q3 a week today to get a real picture. Maybe even a few races, providing teams can iron out issues quickly, rather than later in the season.

If Merc really are in a bad place like Lewis said, R.I.P Toto's headphones.

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