UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Fairy In Boots]

3 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

Manfred Weber is a clown in comparison to not only Verhofstadt but every politician in Europe. Verhofstadt to be fair gave an Ok speech yesterday, all things considered. Probably only 2 bitter nonsense comments from him in it, the bizarre jibe at a John Major comment on the common currency and then calling people stupid.

Nigel Farage on the other hand showed largely that he is a wanker who can't help but live life by the idea that "foreigners don't like it up em"

Constantly winding up the EU fanatics connected to other nations is not a good approach. It might have been before the vote but it isn't now.

Dan Hannan needs to be the leading UK voice in the European Parliament, not Nigel trying to get YouTube hits and Daily Express credits.

 

Likewise if you are on the EU/remain side it's not a good idea to make comments that fuel British nationalism and national identity.

There's no class these days. Just man childs.

 

Farage has shown through domestic politics he's a great talker / shite at actually governing something though, as the good ship UKIP disappears into the abyss. I personally don't care about being nice in talks, the reality is that whoever wins the German elections later this year will be the key negotiator no matter what some Belgian Eurocrat says or feels. If May had the bollocks she'll adopt a bit of Farages attitude of "fine fuck it we'll stop altogether" because it will damage them more. The only language that will matter long term here is the language of economics 

[Honey Honey]

11 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Farage has shown through domestic politics he's a great talker / shite at actually governing something though, as the good ship UKIP disappears into the abyss. I personally don't care about being nice in talks, the reality is that whoever wins the German elections later this year will be the key negotiator no matter what some Belgian Eurocrat says or feels. If May had the bollocks she'll adopt a bit of Farages attitude of "fine fuck it we'll stop altogether" because it will damage them more. The only language that will matter long term here is the language of economics 

Merkel couldn't have achieved the things she has such as destroying the Greek economy if she didn't have support from other governments and politicians. She also failed to get consensus on the refugee policy and many countries have gone their own way, closed their borders, refused numbers. There isn't quite the German dictatorship like the one UKIP like to tell everyone there is. They do have enormous soft power and can put a strong block on things, but when it comes to actually getting things done it's a different ball game. One of the main reasons for leaving the EU is it is impossible to reform the treaties, you can't get meaningful things done. Europe isn't stagnant because of mistakes, it's stagnant because it can't reform following on from mistakes. That is the organic success of democracy and nation states being choked. There are things the Italians want to do to the €uro that the Germans are blocking and things the Germans want to do to the ECB that the Italians are blocking. It's an anti democratic construct, it isn't governed by a Fuhrer but I can see why that idea appeals to UKIP.

[Fairy In Boots]

5 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

Merkel couldn't have achieved the things she has such as destroying the Greek economy if she didn't have support from other governments and politicians. She also failed to get consensus on the refugee policy and many countries have gone their own way, closed their borders, refused numbers. There isn't quite the German dictatorship like the one UKIP like to tell everyone there is. They do have enormous soft power and can put a strong block on things, but when it comes to actually getting things done it's a different ball game. One of the main reasons for leaving the EU is it is impossible to reform the treaties, you can't get meaningful things done. Europe isn't stagnant because of mistakes, it's stagnant because it can't reform following on from mistakes. That is the organic success of democracy and nation states being choked. There are things the Italians want to do to the €uro that the Germans are blocking and things the Germans want to do to the ECB that the Italians are blocking. It's an anti democratic construct, it isn't governed by a Fuhrer but I can see why that idea appeals to UKIP.

Obviously it's not a dictatorship, I give more creedance to the soft power than you do. Germany benefits massively from the Euro being a devalued currency than say the Italians who suffer for it, this increases Germany's power as the Italian economy tanks. Italy may well block stuff at present and for the next decade but the power gap will only increase. 

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Obviously it's not a dictatorship, I give more creedance to the soft power than you do. Germany benefits massively from the Euro being a devalued currency than say the Italians who suffer for it, this increases Germany's power as the Italian economy tanks. Italy may well block stuff at present and for the next decade but the power gap will only increase. 

The €uro hasn't worked for Germany.

In 1995 UK GDP was about 40% of German GDP, today it is 80%. UK GDP per capita was 65% of Germany's in 1995, it is now 95%.

The €uro has stunted German growth because the bundestag, bundesbank and private banks have to transfer wealth to keep other countries from going under.

Wealth generated in the UK leads to increased credit creation in the UK, causing more wealth in turn. Wealth generated in Germany leads to increased credit creation outside of Germany.

The Deutschemark was one of Europe's best currencies, attaching it to countries that have never and will never compete with Germany regardless has caused stagnation.

The disastrous collapse of those around Germany has given off the perception that Germany has done and is doing well out of the €uro. The undervaluation of the €uro is just a small consolation prize for mega conglomerates.

[SirBalon]

2 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Obviously it's not a dictatorship, I give more creedance to the soft power than you do. Germany benefits massively from the Euro being a devalued currency than say the Italians who suffer for it, this increases Germany's power as the Italian economy tanks. Italy may well block stuff at present and for the next decade but the power gap will only increase. 

I don't get why you're saying that Germany benefits from a devalued currency compared to Italy mate. If you're talking exports then Italy export as much if not more than Germany. Italy rely on the export market for both employment and trade. There are other issues as to why the EU has damaged Italy apart from the fact they have such unstable governments. 

[Honey Honey]

The economic intelligence unit have analysed each countries stance on Brexit

No surprises, it matches culture, history and general UK relations.

 

[Fairy In Boots]

5 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

The €uro hasn't worked for Germany.

In 1995 UK GDP was about 40% of German GDP, today it is 80%. UK GDP per capita was 65% of Germany's in 1995, it is now 95%.

The €uro has stunted German growth because the bundestag, bundesbank and private banks have to transfer wealth to keep other countries from going under.

Wealth generated in the UK leads to increased credit creation in the UK, causing more wealth in turn. Wealth generated in Germany leads to increased credit creation outside of Germany.

The Deutschemark was one of Europe's best currencies, attaching it to countries that have never and will never compete with Germany regardless has caused stagnation.

The disastrous collapse of those around Germany has given off the perception that Germany has done and is doing well out of the €uro. The undervaluation of the €uro is just a small consolation prize for mega conglomerates.

Wealth in banking isn't wealth overall with Germany though, it benefits a select few in that industry. Germany have benefited because in terms of automotive and industrial products they're classed as a quality product, they would be more expensive but in this instance it has benefited them in my view and manufacturing is a core part of their economic power. I appreciate the move to the Euro wasn't good for them initially as in cash in their hands and in some aspects it costs them. 

5 hours ago, SirBalon said:

I don't get why you're saying that Germany benefits from a devalued currency compared to Italy mate. If you're talking exports then Italy export as much if not more than Germany. Italy rely on the export market for both employment and trade. There are other issues as to why the EU has damaged Italy apart from the fact they have such unstable governments. 

That's not true Germany is the third largest exporter in the World, they export about 10bill to Italy more than they import from them.  Anyway let's stop the pretending that this is about anything other than another excuse to work spain into the conversation. So Spanish exports? 😉

[SirBalon]

6 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Wealth in banking isn't wealth overall with Germany though, it benefits a select few in that industry. Germany have benefited because in terms of automotive and industrial products they're classed as a quality product, they would be more expensive but in this instance it has benefited them in my view and manufacturing is a core part of their economic power. I appreciate the move to the Euro wasn't good for them initially as in cash in their hands and in some aspects it costs them. 

That's not true Germany is the third largest exporter in the World, they export about 10bill to Italy more than they import from them.  Anyway let's stop the pretending that this is about anything other than another excuse to work spain into the conversation. So Spanish exports? 😉

Nah... Wasn't after that at all mate. Italy live off their exports though and always have done. They export almost everything there is to manufacture from food, cars, motorcycles to fashion. A weak Euro helps them as much as it helps Germany. Italy's issues with the EU are others. 

[Fairy In Boots]

53 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

Nah... Wasn't after that at all mate. Italy live off their exports though and always have done. They export almost everything there is to manufacture from food, cars, motorcycles to fashion. A weak Euro helps them as much as it helps Germany. Italy's issues with the EU are others. 

I know i was just playing, they don't export as much as German and in my game the Italian product is inferior to the German equivalent. Italy has awful debt, low productivity and shite governance, a devalued currency would help with the debt though, if i'm wrong on that fair enough but I though debt was linked to currency, no?

 

 

[Kowabunga]

6 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

The economic intelligence unit have analysed each countries stance on Brexit

No surprises, it matches culture, history and general UK relations.

 

It should be interesting to draw a prediction based on those three ladders (1, 2, 3) weighted per country GDP. That is the probable outcome.

[Honey Honey]

2 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Wealth in banking isn't wealth overall with Germany though, it benefits a select few in that industry. Germany have benefited because in terms of automotive and industrial products they're classed as a quality product, they would be more expensive but in this instance it has benefited them in my view and manufacturing is a core part of their economic power. I appreciate the move to the Euro wasn't good for them initially as in cash in their hands and in some aspects it costs them. 

Germany's power is coming from the Bundesbank supplying credit to other central banks, being their life support. I'm not convinced that is a result of competitive advantage for its businesses from an undervalued currency, I think it's more to do with an inability of other central banks economies to cope with an over valued currency, making them more and more dependent on German capital flows as the crisis deepens. 

A return to the deutschemark will do little but see some jobs move from Germany to Romania to save on labour costs. The trade surplus calculation will remain the same as the end product would still come out of Germany. The surplus won't cone down until the German consumer starts spending. In or out of the €uro. 

[Honey Honey]

 

LOL, in 1000 years some thing's haven't changed in the relationship between England and France.

[SirBalon]

2 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

 

LOL, in 1000 years some thing's haven't changed in the relationship between England and France.

I'm surprised Portugal is in the lukewarm area of the graph. I don't know how much that's based on reality to be honest. 

[Honey Honey]

19 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

I'm surprised Portugal is in the lukewarm area of the graph. I don't know how much that's based on reality to be honest. 

Are they opposed to free trade? Portugal is in the "hard" area on the punishment graph at the top of this page, so if lower on trade that suggests perhaps they want to block access to some programmes or demand money.

[Dr. Gonzo]

20 hours ago, SirBalon said:

Nah... Wasn't after that at all mate. Italy live off their exports though and always have done. They export almost everything there is to manufacture from food, cars, motorcycles to fashion. A weak Euro helps them as much as it helps Germany. Italy's issues with the EU are others. 

Italy and Germany don't really even compare in numbers, despite Italy relying on exports. German exports are made up of cars, appliances, industrial equipment, and chemicals used worldwide. Italy's biggest contributor to their economy is agriculture. They do make cars, motorcycles, and mopeds - but these are more niche vehicles compared to their German counterparts. Alongside this secondary tier of Italian exported products, they're also big on exporting luxury goods.

Germany has a significantly more diversified economy, with a very small percentage accounting for agriculture. They are the world's largest exporter of cars - and these cars cover basically every range of cars - so they go for the niche markets and for the mass market appeal. Appliances and industrial equipment from Germany have very, very high reputations. And they've got a growing financial services sector.

So they've got a more diverse line of goods/services exported out, appealing to a much wider global market... it's really no comparison.

[SirBalon]

48 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

Are they opposed to free trade? Portugal is in the "hard" area on the punishment graph at the top of this page, so if lower on trade that suggests perhaps they want to block access to some programmes or demand money.

The reason I said that is because Britain and Portugal have a 500 year old friendship that seems strange that they'd have that stance. 

[Fairy In Boots]

20 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

Germany's power is coming from the Bundesbank supplying credit to other central banks, being their life support. I'm not convinced that is a result of competitive advantage for its businesses from an undervalued currency, I think it's more to do with an inability of other central banks economies to cope with an over valued currency, making them more and more dependent on German capital flows as the crisis deepens. 

A return to the deutschemark will do little but see some jobs move from Germany to Romania to save on labour costs. The trade surplus calculation will remain the same as the end product would still come out of Germany. The surplus won't cone down until the German consumer starts spending. In or out of the €uro. 

I appreciate that and I do get what you're saying, I have enough confidence in your knowledge of banking economics to take you at your word.  But surely on premium goods such as BMW's or Mercs the lower value currency is helping them export more competitively?

[Kowabunga]

2 hours ago, SirBalon said:

The reason I said that is because Britain and Portugal have a 500 year old friendship that seems strange that they'd have that stance. 

Yeah, surely for that reason the UK royally threatened them in 1890. 

[SirBalon]

Just now, Kowabunga said:

Yeah, surely for that reason the UK royally threatened them in 1890. 

A lover's quarrel. 

[Honey Honey]

23 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

I appreciate that and I do get what you're saying, I have enough confidence in your knowledge of banking economics to take you at your word.  But surely on premium goods such as BMW's or Mercs the lower value currency is helping them export more competitively?

 

Without doubt it makes labour costs amongst other things lower in dollar terms than it would overwise be. But its still not lower than other western countries so the undervalued €uro isn't a very good excuse on the surface.

Beneath the surface is where the disturbing economics is. All of us trade deficit countries are going on a massive debt bender to keep up our standard of living. Floating currencies are supposed to stop that sort of scenario, in theory. In practice the €uro and the Chinese government are setting the world up for a disastrous reset.

[oliveandblue]

Immature question, but what's with the French and their current distaste toward the UK?  The longbowmen died ages ago, and there is no reason for a political rivalry between the two nations at this juncture.  The only reason that I can think of is that Paris sees itself as a competitor to London in several international sectors.

Edited April 10, 2017 by oliveandblue

[Honey Honey]

6 hours ago, oliveandblue said:

Immature question, but what's with the French and their current distaste toward the UK?  The longbowmen died ages ago, and there is no reason for a political rivalry between the two nations at this juncture.  The only reason that I can think of is that Paris sees itself as a competitor to London in several international sectors.

It's you they don't like 

The political elite in France have a problem with what they see as the creeping Americanisation of Europe in language, culture, defense and above all else capitalism. We are your Trojan horse. President Sarkozy used to call it the "anglo-saxon way of life" particularly "anglo-saxon finance" and capitalism, he was desperate to destroy it in 2008 and extol the virtues of the French way.

In recent years President Hollande ramped up tax on the rich and David Cameron rolled out the red carpet and invited them all to flee the tyranny of the French tax regime. It wasn't even subtle and irked the French government, reiterating to them the difference in way of life, the low tax predatory Anglo Saxons. London became the 2nd most populated French city and Hollande will be eager to get revenge, to damage the UK. He won't be President much longer but Macron was finance minister when David Cameron mugged them off so he will be looking to get a win or two.

[SirBalon]

46 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

It's you they don't like 

The political elite in France have a problem with what they see as the creeping Americanisation of Europe in language, culture, defense and above all else capitalism. We are your Trojan horse. President Sarkozy used to call it the "anglo-saxon way of life" particularly "anglo-saxon finance" and capitalism, he was desperate to destroy it in 2008 and extol the virtues of the French way.

In recent years President Hollande ramped up tax on the rich and David Cameron rolled out the red carpet and invited them all to flee the tyranny of the French tax regime. It wasn't even subtle and irked the French government, reiterating to them the difference in way of life, the low tax predatory Anglo Saxons. London became the 2nd most populated French city and Hollande will be eager to get revenge, to damage the UK. He won't be President much longer but Macron was finance minister when David Cameron mugged them off so he will be looking to get a win or two.

I agree with this wholeheartedly... The suspicious and untrusting eye is always on Britain in this case because of the way we receive Amercian "culture" with seemingly open arms in the UK. 

Edited April 10, 2017 by SirBalon

[Fairy In Boots]

12 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

It's you they don't like 

The political elite in France have a problem with what they see as the creeping Americanisation of Europe in language, culture, defense and above all else capitalism. We are your Trojan horse. President Sarkozy used to call it the "anglo-saxon way of life" particularly "anglo-saxon finance" and capitalism, he was desperate to destroy it in 2008 and extol the virtues of the French way.

In recent years President Hollande ramped up tax on the rich and David Cameron rolled out the red carpet and invited them all to flee the tyranny of the French tax regime. It wasn't even subtle and irked the French government, reiterating to them the difference in way of life, the low tax predatory Anglo Saxons. London became the 2nd most populated French city and Hollande will be eager to get revenge, to damage the UK. He won't be President much longer but Macron was finance minister when David Cameron mugged them off so he will be looking to get a win or two.

Agree but I think the fact we've came to blows so many times probably has a bit in it as well.

11 hours ago, SirBalon said:

I agree with this wholeheartedly... The suspicious and untrusting eye is always on Britain in this case because of the way we receive Amercian "culture" with seemingly open arms in the UK. 

Any excuse to post really

 

Edited April 10, 2017 by Fairy In Boots

[Vegan Kel]

The 27 Rothschild frontpeople in charge of the totalitarian EU dictatorship have demanded that the UK pay them a sum (because they Rothschilds are greedy shitcunts) and that we grant rights to people who have no connection with our country.

I say tell them to fuck off, pay them nothing and charge them whatever tariffs they impose on us (or, even better, fuck them off completely).

I would refuse to deal with anyone from the EU and refuse to acknowledge their existence. I'd only trade with individual nations and if they haven't got the balls to upset the EU dictators then they can do one