Lucas Posted November 28, 2023 Share Posted November 28, 2023 12 hours ago, Dan said: I'm going to do something I don't think anyone has yet done, and you're actually well within your rights to do this, but I've found something I like tomorrow. I'm going to have this selection and then potentially a second at the weekend, but I haven't decided what yet. That being said, if I don't have another and tomorrow nights does win, I can also opt to just not have another and go with that. Nobody has yet done this but there's no reason not to - granted I suppose if you do lose on your early one then it's over and there's no point making a second. Tomorrow night, I am taking this: I think that's a frankly unreal price. Antwerp are on 4/4 losses in the Champions League this season, only 5th in the Belgian league following their title win last time out. They've shipped 14 goals in their 4 games, and their only way of staying in Europe this season is to win at Shakhtar and beat Barcelona while swinging the goal difference by 10 goals. Putting it simply, they are finishing 4th for sure, they have virtually nothing to play for. Shakhtar beat Barcelona in their last 'home' game and won 2-3 in Belgium in the reverse fixture, while knowing that a failure to win here could likely end their hopes of qualifying. I think it's two teams that will have to go for it, so if Shakhtar win, I don't really see it only being 1-0. The price offered is really juicy, I really don't get how it's that big. So, how does this actually work? Do you just bet a fiver on that one and a fiver st the weekend? Or a Tenner on that one as 'one leg' and then puck another at the weekend but they both have to win to count? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted November 28, 2023 Author Subscriber Share Posted November 28, 2023 7 hours ago, Stan said: Please tell me these things beforehand . I only realised as I was watching Soccer Saturday that Oxford's boss left to be hired by Bristol City. I should pay more attention to stuff like that as it's quite clearly they missed their boss that had got them into such good form to begin with. I do think from what he was saying that he would've probably gone with that even if Oxford hadn't lost Manning though because his theory was very much that they've run hot going forward, they're scoring lots of goals from low quality chances and that Cheltenham have picked up a lot more than people realise from a side that didn't score a single goal in their opening 11 games. Not the top 20 betting show on a Thursday is the podcast, it's one of those picks that if you listen now it justifies listening to the podcast full stop and I think I'd have likely had Oxford myself if not for what he'd said. It was interesting stuff anyway. 59 minutes ago, Lucas said: So, how does this actually work? Do you just bet a fiver on that one and a fiver st the weekend? Or a Tenner on that one as 'one leg' and then puck another at the weekend but they both have to win to count? It's not really much of a change at all, it's just based on timings. I've found one I really like tonight (Shakhtar) and I'm going to have that as one of the legs of my £10 bet for the week - it's just you can choose to convert that into a double later in the week after it's settled if you wish, although like I say if it loses it's pointless anyway as you're bust. Nothing stopping anybody having one of your games tonight and another at the weekend - even if you pick the weekends game after your midweek one has settled. If Shakhtar pays out I can either convert it into a double with another game this weekend, or just cash in a single for a £15 win. Probably not a bad shout in my situation. On 18/11/2023 at 20:32, RandoEFC said: The Salford one cropped up for me when I was looking through the fixtures, I had them on a double chance. It was a close game and Gillingham's first half goals looked like they were against the run of play. Salford were probably overpriced there but you can't win them all. Shameless off-topic brag coming here but I put together a silly 80/1 accumulator for today based entirely on my own research into mainly the English and German schedules this weekend. It actually came off at reduced odds of 48/1 because one game was postponed. I've been trying to put my maths to good use to calculate some probabilities and take my own biases out of my betting. It's a bit nerdy but I do believe I can be profitable but until I find a good formula/strategy I'm playing with tiny stakes to experiment so sadly the winner above isn't paying for a month's rent or anything . That's my sort of research that is albeit I haven't really delved that far down and into those sorts of specifics. Some nice picks though, I firmly believe there is value out there. There's no way the bookies can be that on top of everything beyond an algorithm. I went college with a Tamworth fan years ago and he used to tell me he'd frequently win on non-league simply based on knowledge he had that they didn't. Another who works at a bookies said they're very lazy on a lot of leagues too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted November 28, 2023 Subscriber Share Posted November 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Dan said: I do think from what he was saying that he would've probably gone with that even if Oxford hadn't lost Manning though because his theory was very much that they've run hot going forward, they're scoring lots of goals from low quality chances and that Cheltenham have picked up a lot more than people realise from a side that didn't score a single goal in their opening 11 games. Not the top 20 betting show on a Thursday is the podcast, it's one of those picks that if you listen now it justifies listening to the podcast full stop and I think I'd have likely had Oxford myself if not for what he'd said. It was interesting stuff anyway. It's not really much of a change at all, it's just based on timings. I've found one I really like tonight (Shakhtar) and I'm going to have that as one of the legs of my £10 bet for the week - it's just you can choose to convert that into a double later in the week after it's settled if you wish, although like I say if it loses it's pointless anyway as you're bust. Nothing stopping anybody having one of your games tonight and another at the weekend - even if you pick the weekends game after your midweek one has settled. If Shakhtar pays out I can either convert it into a double with another game this weekend, or just cash in a single for a £15 win. Probably not a bad shout in my situation. That's my sort of research that is albeit I haven't really delved that far down and into those sorts of specifics. Some nice picks though, I firmly believe there is value out there. There's no way the bookies can be that on top of everything beyond an algorithm. I went college with a Tamworth fan years ago and he used to tell me he'd frequently win on non-league simply based on knowledge he had that they didn't. Another who works at a bookies said they're very lazy on a lot of leagues too. I've been using what's basically an algorithm myself. I just cycle through the leagues on bet365 starting with he Asian handicap/goal line market because those give a pretty decent idea of how the bookies have priced up a match so you can start identifying which prices don't really match up with how the two teams have been playing. The way the online betting markets automatically adjust their odds to assure that they make a profit when a lot of money goes on a certain selection, the bookies don't really need to be that accurate with their opening prices because they'll just adjust themselves to ensure they profit anyway, so I'm not surprised to hear that they're a bit lazy sometimes. If you can get in there early before masses of other people notice there's some value available in the 24 hours or so before a match, you can get nice prices. Last night I was on Angers who are 2nd in Ligue 2 with the best home record in the league at home to Caen who have 2 points from their last 6 away games or something and are hovering just above the relegation zone. I backed them last weekend at odds of about 2.25 and they were down to 1.70 at one point just before kick off. Angers won 3-0. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted November 28, 2023 Author Subscriber Share Posted November 28, 2023 Has anyone got this on I'm genuinely jinxed. I'm actually speechless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted November 28, 2023 Administrator Share Posted November 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Dan said: Has anyone got this on I'm genuinely jinxed. I'm actually speechless. I genuinely feel for you You must have been buzzing when the early goal went in as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted November 28, 2023 Author Subscriber Share Posted November 28, 2023 32 minutes ago, Stan said: I genuinely feel for you You must have been buzzing when the early goal went in as well. Yeah they got the early goal and I thought it would sail in. To be fair, Antwerp had chances too but how the hell Shakhtar didn't score again is beyond me. The one where he rounded the keeper and just hit the defender. This is getting really annoying now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted December 1, 2023 Subscriber Share Posted December 1, 2023 My pair for this week. Braga have cleared this line in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Estoril. They've won 9 of their last 12 home league games dating back to last season, 7 of these by 2+ goals. Estoril's 1-0 win at Porto was their first away win in months in the league. Before that they had 1 point in 11 games. Etar are rock bottom of the Bulgarian league with 14 defeats from 18 games. They've lost 8 of their last 10 home games and been beaten by more than one goal in 3 of their last 5. Cherno More are 2nd in the league behind CSKA Sofia and have only lost 1 of their last 9 on the road. I expect this to translate into at least a victory here, hopefully by more than 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted December 1, 2023 Author Subscriber Share Posted December 1, 2023 If I was going to have a second this weekend I would've gone for Plymouth beating Stoke. Just bonkers how they can be the underdogs. 16 home points to Stoke's 8 away points. Plymouth basically got promoted, and are likely to survive on their home form. I think a decent long shot is Plymouth -1 as well, as every Plymouth win has been by 2 or more goals, and Stoke have lost six games by 2+ goals. Not a banker by any means but definitely value for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted December 1, 2023 Administrator Share Posted December 1, 2023 First one is a bit of a win-win. Good price I think given both teams' respective form records. Almost tempted to do West Brom score 2 but might be pushing fate a bit... Second one is purely based on Bolton's ridiculous scoring at home and hoping that the FA Cup doesn't throw up a stinker of an upset... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted December 1, 2023 Author Subscriber Share Posted December 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stan said: First one is a bit of a win-win. Good price I think given both teams' respective form records. Almost tempted to do West Brom score 2 but might be pushing fate a bit... Second one is purely based on Bolton's ridiculous scoring at home and hoping that the FA Cup doesn't throw up a stinker of an upset... We've still not let in two in a league game this season which is really impressive, but I do think that is going to fall soon, quite possibly tomorrow as well. We don't look quite as tight. Faes doubtful as well which doesn't help at all, not been convinced by Coady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Going for a Sky Boost of the following... Kane, Saka and Mbuemo 2 SOT each. 7/1, £10 wins £80. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...Dan Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Racing Ferrol (2.55) v Albacete Girona (1.70) v Valencia £10 returns £43.35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 12 hours ago, Lucas said: Going for a Sky Boost of the following... Kane, Saka and Mbuemo 2 SOT each. 7/1, £10 wins £80. Cancel this. Bayern postponed so it will be void. I'll look elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas Posted December 2, 2023 Share Posted December 2, 2023 Ok, I'll take a punt. Leverkusen to win, BTTS 6/4 Man City to win, BTTS 11/8 £10 wins £59.38 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted December 2, 2023 Subscriber Share Posted December 2, 2023 22 hours ago, RandoEFC said: My pair for this week. Braga have cleared this line in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Estoril. They've won 9 of their last 12 home league games dating back to last season, 7 of these by 2+ goals. Estoril's 1-0 win at Porto was their first away win in months in the league. Before that they had 1 point in 11 games. Etar are rock bottom of the Bulgarian league with 14 defeats from 18 games. They've lost 8 of their last 10 home games and been beaten by more than one goal in 3 of their last 5. Cherno More are 2nd in the league behind CSKA Sofia and have only lost 1 of their last 9 on the road. I expect this to translate into at least a victory here, hopefully by more than 1. Got shafted a bit on this one. Cherno More were 1-0 up, took a late red card and then conceded a penalty in the 95th minute. Doesn't get much worse than that . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted December 2, 2023 Subscriber Share Posted December 2, 2023 2 minutes ago, RandoEFC said: Got shafted a bit on this one. Cherno More were 1-0 up, took a late red card and then conceded a penalty in the 95th minute. Doesn't get much worse than that . HOLD ON JUST A MOMENT We survive! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted December 2, 2023 Administrator Share Posted December 2, 2023 21 hours ago, Stan said: First one is a bit of a win-win. Good price I think given both teams' respective form records. Almost tempted to do West Brom score 2 but might be pushing fate a bit... Second one is purely based on Bolton's ridiculous scoring at home and hoping that the FA Cup doesn't throw up a stinker of an upset... First win in what feels like an age! Happy days. Win win all round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machado Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 Under 3.5 match goals in both fixtures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted December 3, 2023 Subscriber Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 01/12/2023 at 16:43, RandoEFC said: My pair for this week. Braga have cleared this line in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Estoril. They've won 9 of their last 12 home league games dating back to last season, 7 of these by 2+ goals. Estoril's 1-0 win at Porto was their first away win in months in the league. Before that they had 1 point in 11 games. Etar are rock bottom of the Bulgarian league with 14 defeats from 18 games. They've lost 8 of their last 10 home games and been beaten by more than one goal in 3 of their last 5. Cherno More are 2nd in the league behind CSKA Sofia and have only lost 1 of their last 9 on the road. I expect this to translate into at least a victory here, hopefully by more than 1. Braga 3-1 Cherno More 2-1 Profit of £5.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted December 3, 2023 Author Subscriber Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 02/12/2023 at 14:59, RandoEFC said: HOLD ON JUST A MOMENT We survive! How do you have one win and one push every single time without fail. It's mental. Looks like a good week in here. I'm getting cut adrift now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted December 3, 2023 Author Subscriber Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 02/12/2023 at 15:44, Stan said: First win in what feels like an age! Happy days. Win win all round. With around 5 left of our game you got the absolute dream scenario Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ Posted December 3, 2023 Subscriber Share Posted December 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, Dan said: How do you have one win and one push every single time without fail. It's mental. Looks like a good week in here. I'm getting cut adrift now. Just trying to choose winners that are pretty much 'nailed on' where the price for -1.0 is around 1.50 or better. Decent run of slow and steady profit at the moment but the problem with that strategy is a single loss can undo 2-3 "half wins". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted December 3, 2023 Subscriber Share Posted December 3, 2023 Week 19 EPL 9th Decenber Home wins for Man United v Bournemouth and Aston Villa v Arsenal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
...Dan Posted December 3, 2023 Share Posted December 3, 2023 On 02/12/2023 at 02:35, ...Dan said: Racing Ferrol (2.55) v Albacete Girona (1.70) v Valencia £10 returns £43.35 Two wins in a row Ferrol went behind twice, conceded 3 goals against 10 men (Albacete red card in the 20th minute) but ended up just about getting over the line for me with a 5-4 win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted December 3, 2023 Administrator Share Posted December 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Dan said: With around 5 left of our game you got the absolute dream scenario It really was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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