Dan's Tipping Game

[RandoEFC+]

I had a bet builder with a first half goal, some City corners, some City shots and 11+ City free kicks. All were roughly even odds. First three legs came in before City had their second free kick of the game . It won with a minute and a half to spare at least.

[Pyfish+]

On 03/03/2024 at 05:21, Dan said:

Up to you but you can either cash in Tranmere for a £9.50 win or you can convert this to a double.

Doesn't seem fair for me to claim the double knowing it'll get me money, so I'll go with the cash out of Tranmere.

[CaaC (John)]

Edit: Deleted them, fucked the dates up.  

[Lucas]

Haaland and Bellingham 1 Shot on Target each and each to be fouled once.

3/1, £10 wins £40.

[Dan+]

Going to give the table an update tomorrow - let it slip a bit, had quite a bit on.

[RandoEFC+]

My offering for this weekend:

Galatasaray host Caykur Rizespor this evening. Rizespor aren't the worst team in the league, in fact they're in the top half. Their away form is terrible though with 3 draws and 7 defeats in their last 10. Travelling to Galatasaray who have a 100% home record this season doesn't look likely to change that. 1.66 should be decent odds for Galatasaray to win by a couple.

I got on Over 2.5 for Palace and Luton when it opened at 2.025. I think these odds are really generous even now at 1.75. Luton games tend to be goal heavy with an average of 3.5 match goals for the season and 8 of their last 9 league matches clearing this line. I won't pretend to be an expert on Glasner but you wouldn't say his appointment is likely to see a reduction in the goals they'll see when compared to Roy Hodgson. Statistically speaking, the last time a Palace match didn't have at least 2 goals was back in October when they drew 0-0 with Forest. 14 of their 19 games since then have seen 3 or more goals. Luton generally manage to score in games but their defence is awful and I'd back Palace to score at least a couple.

£10 returns £30.10

Edit: changed my pick to the Asian version of the same bet which slightly increases the odds. Leaving my original betslip below because I think it's useful if you didn't already know to see the difference in price for the exact same bet. 

[Pyfish+]

[Stan]

Rotherham's away from speaks for itself for all the wrong reasons. 18 away league games - 48 conceded, average of more than 2.5 per away game. 

Norwich are 5th in the home form table. 

Risky going for an early game technically, with Barca's game tonight. Lewandowski to score once at odds-on seems quite generous to me - 4 in his last 5.

[Dan+]

Longish shot again.

[Dan+]

On 29/02/2024 at 02:19, Dan said:

WEEK 30 - BARNSTORMING

WEEK 30 STATS
Winning bets: 3/5
Winning selections: 8/10
Weekly forum position: +£97.85 (Ranked 1/30)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 51/198
Winning selections: 172/375
Total forum position: -£319.14

 

Week 30 brings about the best performing week of the season, and I tell you what, it was so close to being even better. Five players, three winners and even the two losers did not get too far off either.

@Lucas closes the gap on @Pyfish with a 3/1 winning bet builder on the League Cup final. One of those that looks easy in hindsight. Only his fourth winner this season, but he seems to save the wins for good ones and the fact he's in comfortable profit despite this is proof of how quickly this game can turn.

@Stan wins prediction of the week and is the biggest riser in the table too - very cynically picking the worst possible outcome for Leicester at the weekend to which all teams duly obliged. A late Leicester collapse at Leeds and the usual late goalfest at Portman Road sealing his biggest win of the season.

@CaaC (John) owes me here for reminding him to get one in for this week as his Monday double pays out to rise back to 7th - his second biggest win of the season too.

Then we come to the genuinely unlucky. @RandoEFC's trip to the French third tier proved fruitful with a comfortable 4-1 home win for Red Star, but he was let down in the goalfest at Kaiserslautern as they failed to land any of the four that occurred. One of the nearest misses of late, but I would argue probably not even the closest of the weekend.

My loss is less about what I did pick, though it's absolute sods law to see that following a Liverpool victory in a low scoring game obliged at genuinely kind odds, that West Ham would blow my other leg apart after six fucking minutes, as their two goals meant it was not possible for my bet to actually win. The absolute sickener was how close I came to putting a double of Crystal Palace to beat Burnley and under 5 goals and Fulham to win at Man Utd - two predictions I can back up in the predictions league, that would've paid out probably the second biggest win of the season and actually clawed me to not far off the bottom. Alas, it's this game, so I'm just not allowed nice things. Though I do happen to remember that my other winner came on the weekend we played QPR away and we face them at home this weekend. I really am clinging onto anything I can here. I'll also be going for pretty high odds picks too because at this point, there really is nothing to lose.

WEEK 31 STATS
Winning bets: 1 / 6
Winning selections: 5 / 11
Weekly forum position: -£40.50 (23/31)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 52 / 204
Winning selections: 177 / 386
Total forum position: -£359.64

[Dan+]

5 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

My offering for this weekend:

Galatasaray host Caykur Rizespor this evening. Rizespor aren't the worst team in the league, in fact they're in the top half. Their away form is terrible though with 3 draws and 7 defeats in their last 10. Travelling to Galatasaray who have a 100% home record this season doesn't look likely to change that. 1.66 should be decent odds for Galatasaray to win by a couple.

I got on Over 2.5 for Palace and Luton when it opened at 2.025. I think these odds are really generous even now at 1.75. Luton games tend to be goal heavy with an average of 3.5 match goals for the season and 8 of their last 9 league matches clearing this line. I won't pretend to be an expert on Glasner but you wouldn't say his appointment is likely to see a reduction in the goals they'll see when compared to Roy Hodgson. Statistically speaking, the last time a Palace match didn't have at least 2 goals was back in October when they drew 0-0 with Forest. 14 of their 19 games since then have seen 3 or more goals. Luton generally manage to score in games but their defence is awful and I'd back Palace to score at least a couple.

£10 returns £30.10

Edit: changed my pick to the Asian version of the same bet which slightly increases the odds. Leaving my original betslip below because I think it's useful if you didn't already know to see the difference in price for the exact same bet. 

I was speaking to a pro gambler about this and he has said if you do singles it is worth looking into things like this, even for things such as -0.5 Asian Handicap (which is literally the same as a win market), the odds are often different.

Bet365 is quite good at leading you down the road of accumulators with the way they've given two goal payout and acca boost.

SkyBet have taken Accafreeze off me after they've clocked I was gaming it although I don't really see how I broke any rules either. Made £430ish from doing it though. Might have to sign my sister up for another round.

[Stan]

Aaaand Lewandowski doesn't start

 

[Stan]

@Dan can I void that double for now? I'll pick another one if that's okay? 

[Dan+]

52 minutes ago, Stan said:

@Dan can I void that double for now? I'll pick another one if that's okay? 

Yeah that's fine.

[Stan]

New picks

[RandoEFC+]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

I was speaking to a pro gambler about this and he has said if you do singles it is worth looking into things like this, even for things such as -0.5 Asian Handicap (which is literally the same as a win market), the odds are often different.

Bet365 is quite good at leading you down the road of accumulators with the way they've given two goal payout and acca boost.

SkyBet have taken Accafreeze off me after they've clocked I was gaming it although I don't really see how I broke any rules either. Made £430ish from doing it though. Might have to sign my sister up for another round.

Yeah my betting is based on the Asian handicap line and Asian goal line in the first instance and that's where the bulk of my money goes.

Although I'm starting to see some serious success on Asian Corners (both totals and handicaps) after tweaking my calculations again. I'm also doing nicely on match shots and shots on target and team shots and shots on target. 

The Asian lines odds are usually better although there are exceptions. I often find the draw no bet market can be better value than the 0.0 handicap one. Also you get the early payout safety net on bet365 by taking a straight win over a -0.5 as well so there's pros and cons.

Nice 6-2 win for Gala tonight to get me started anyway.

[CaaC (John)]

Scottish Cup - Q/F Sat 9 March
Aberdeen v Kilmarnoch  (Killie to win}

Championship - Sat 9 March
Cardiff City v Ipswich {Ipswich to win}

 

[Stan]

28 goal attempts but only 2 goals for Leipzig. Pricks.

[RandoEFC+]

Worst of both worlds for me. Palace Luton match is one goal short for my bet but Palace don't even hold on to the 1-0 to help Everton.

[Dan+]

On 08/03/2024 at 15:49, Dan said:

Longish shot again.

I can't take it anymore!!! Even landed a fucking 3/1 that won 1-5!

[Stan]

 

Bit of double jeopardy in this. For obvious reasons. 

[CaaC (John)]

Premiership - 17th March
West Ham v Aston Villa (Score Draw)

Scottish Premiership - 17th March
Dundee v Rangers (Rangers to win)

[Pyfish+]

[...Dan]

Slaven Belupo v HNK Rijeka (1.53)

Köln v RB Leipzig (1.45)

£10 returns £22.23.

[RandoEFC+]

My algorithm has been spitting out some good winners on corners lately so going for this double.