Venezuela

[Spike]

19 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It also doesn’t have the mechanisms for internal change, so the US is stuck with hostile nations of its creation that will look to destabilise the world and support enemies of US allies.

Iran definitely needs change but I don’t see why Cuba does? Nearly all their woes are externally inflicted upon them with draconian punishments from the USA stemming from the Cold War. Even the problems they have now are largely exaggerated by the press. Is it perfect? Fuck no, but Cuba is definitely in a better place than the 90s and in the 50s when it was literally a mafia run state. Their number one export is doctors and their medical science developed their own Covid vaccine. Cuba has a massive capacity for good.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 minutes ago, Spike said:

Iran definitely needs change but I don’t see why Cuba does? Nearly all their woes are externally inflicted upon them with draconian punishments from the USA stemming from the Cold War. Even the problems they have now are largely exaggerated by the press. Is it perfect? Fuck no, but Cuba is definitely in a better place than the 90s and in the 50s when it was literally a mafia run state. Their number one export is doctors and their medical science developed their own Covid vaccine. Cuba has a massive capacity for good.

Honestly I think Cuba is just being punished (honestly like Iran) for kicking a US puppet out.

I’m not sure having a strong medical field necessarily means a massive capacity for good. Medical tourism to Iran is pretty huge and it’s one of the stronger medical fields in Asia.

But I just checked the number of political prisoners in each country, and it’s clear Cuba is a less horrible dictatorship to live in though.

[Spike]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

Honestly I think Cuba is just being punished (honestly like Iran) for kicking a US puppet out.

I’m not sure having a strong medical field necessarily means a massive capacity for good. Medical tourism to Iran is pretty huge and it’s one of the stronger medical fields in Asia.

But I just checked the number of political prisoners in each country, and it’s clear Cuba is a less horrible dictatorship to live in though.

I stand by that Cuba has all the infrastructure to be a great country but not the materials. 

[Goku de la Boca]

Another theory going around is that Maduro is doing this to suspend elections next year.

 

[Goku de la Boca]

Today we find out if Venezuela will choose to invade Guyana or not.

[Goku de la Boca]

The "people" have spoken! Venezuela will invade Guyana.

I put that in quotes as I highly doubt it was a genuine voting system. 

 

[Goku de la Boca]

Find it disgusting how little the news is giving a shit here while they focus on Gaza and Ukraine consistently.

Here is a bit of a backstory.

 

[Goku de la Boca]

North American and European politicians will try to be "politically correct" and take down Palestine and Russia flags but yet they are totally silent on the Essequibo conflict. I'd think at least the USA would give a shit about the amount of oil they could lose if Venezuela manage to annex Guyana.

[Dr. Gonzo]

19 minutes ago, Goku de la Boca said:

North American and European politicians will try to be "politically correct" and take down Palestine and Russia flags but yet they are totally silent on the Essequibo conflict. I'd think at least the USA would give a shit about the amount of oil they could lose if Venezuela manage to annex Guyana.

I think Venezuela is just doing this for propaganda. Otherwise they’re just inviting the US to bomb them, put a puppet in, and take control of their oil fields.

[Goku de la Boca]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think Venezuela is just doing this for propaganda. Otherwise they’re just inviting the US to bomb them, put a puppet in, and take control of their oil fields.

Maduro is capable of shooting himself in the foot like that, we'll see. This isn't a new dispute but with the discovery of gas and oil Venezuela is taking it to new extremes.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 minutes ago, Goku de la Boca said:

Maduro is capable of shooting himself in the foot like that, we'll see. This isn't a new dispute but with the discovery of gas and oil Venezuela is taking it to new extremes.

If he's going to go ahead with it, it's either because he's got some assurances from the US that there won't be consequences - like Saddam used to do. I think this is doubtful though, even considering Venezuela having oil sanctions removed, because before Saddam was an enemy of the US... he was one of their boys, and only really jeapordised that once he invaded Kuwait. Maduro is not one of the US's preferred dictators.

Or he's going to go ahead with it as a favour to Putin, to take eyes further away from Ukraine. But unlike convincing Iran to let Hamas and the Houthis go ahead with destabilising the region, this is much closer to home for the US. And in a region where the US has close allies and Guyana being part of a trading block that enjoys close ties to the US.

If Maduro wants to take this further than nationalistic chest thumping for propaganda purposes, I don't think he's got an easy route to success. His troops would need to cross a jungle with no roads, it would be further economically isolated by countries in the region, and probably find itself on the end of a naval blockade and the subject of US airstrikes.

There's not any fear of nuclear war with Venezuela that exists with Russia's war on Ukraine. There's not the fear of a region igniting like a barrel of TNT the same way there is with Israel-Palestine. It would be a war in the Americas started against the interest of a pretty pro-US trading block... with the US military relatively available to swoop in considering the withdrawal from Afghanistan. There's no real appetite in the US for another Middle Eastern war... but I don't think that would be the case for a war in the US to stand up for a fledgling democracy of English speakers with the 4th highest GDP per capita in the Americas.

It's basically a suicidal proposition for Maduro. And while these authoritarian "strongmen" look like idiots a lot of the time, they're usually smart enough to know that self-preservation is their number one priority. Maduro can't steal the wealth of Venezuela or live comfortably without guaranteeing that his reign isn't under threat. It's why Iran starting shit with the US and Israel is done with their proxy militias, like Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, the billions of militias they have in Iraq and Syria - it gives them that degree of plausible deniability that doesn't have them in the crosshairs of the US or Israel.

If he's stupid enough to attack, I'd be surprised. But I think it'd be one of the last decisions he makes as the leader of Venezuela. I think more realistically this is like the typical chest thumping regimes like this do - it's for domestic consumption, not foreign consumption.

[Spike]

42 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If he's going to go ahead with it, it's either because he's got some assurances from the US that there won't be consequences - like Saddam used to do. I think this is doubtful though, even considering Venezuela having oil sanctions removed, because before Saddam was an enemy of the US... he was one of their boys, and only really jeapordised that once he invaded Kuwait. Maduro is not one of the US's preferred dictators.

Or he's going to go ahead with it as a favour to Putin, to take eyes further away from Ukraine. But unlike convincing Iran to let Hamas and the Houthis go ahead with destabilising the region, this is much closer to home for the US. And in a region where the US has close allies and Guyana being part of a trading block that enjoys close ties to the US.

If Maduro wants to take this further than nationalistic chest thumping for propaganda purposes, I don't think he's got an easy route to success. His troops would need to cross a jungle with no roads, it would be further economically isolated by countries in the region, and probably find itself on the end of a naval blockade and the subject of US airstrikes.

There's not any fear of nuclear war with Venezuela that exists with Russia's war on Ukraine. There's not the fear of a region igniting like a barrel of TNT the same way there is with Israel-Palestine. It would be a war in the Americas started against the interest of a pretty pro-US trading block... with the US military relatively available to swoop in considering the withdrawal from Afghanistan. There's no real appetite in the US for another Middle Eastern war... but I don't think that would be the case for a war in the US to stand up for a fledgling democracy of English speakers with the 4th highest GDP per capita in the Americas.

It's basically a suicidal proposition for Maduro. And while these authoritarian "strongmen" look like idiots a lot of the time, they're usually smart enough to know that self-preservation is their number one priority. Maduro can't steal the wealth of Venezuela or live comfortably without guaranteeing that his reign isn't under threat. It's why Iran starting shit with the US and Israel is done with their proxy militias, like Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, the billions of militias they have in Iraq and Syria - it gives them that degree of plausible deniability that doesn't have them in the crosshairs of the US or Israel.

If he's stupid enough to attack, I'd be surprised. But I think it'd be one of the last decisions he makes as the leader of Venezuela. I think more realistically this is like the typical chest thumping regimes like this do - it's for domestic consumption, not foreign consumption.

Maduros are tasty, you don’t know what you’re banging on about.

[Whiskey]

1 minute ago, Spike said:

Maduros are tasty, you don’t know what you’re banging on about.

@MUFC

[MUFC]

2 hours ago, Whiskey said:

@MUFC

[Goku de la Boca]

This is insane.

Venezuela has been on the end of a lot of xenophobia by all of South America because all they've done since the humanitarian crisis was export mafias and criminals. They have become a vile nation from their government to their people.

I know a lot of great Venezuelan people but every year they are also in the need to become criminals because the reputation has scarred Venezuela so much that it is impossible for them to get work in other countries. This is an instant result of Chavismo.

Venezuela is a beautiful, beautiful country and played such an important part in the continents independence as well as being a country that once prospered. These tactics to avoid Guyana is very reminiscent of the Argentine military rule that went to war with the UK in the 80's, all merely a distraction which will surely come back to bite them.

Maduro has to be ousted but the damage might be irreversible. It will take decades for Venezuela to get back on it's feet, and that is if we ever see it go anywhere near what it used to be.

[Dr. Gonzo]

11 hours ago, Goku de la Boca said:

They have become a vile nation from their government to their people.

Don't be quick to tar all Venezuelans as vile. They are desperate people living under serious oppression - the circumstances that lead people to do things that they wouldn't otherwise do.

[Goku de la Boca]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

Don't be quick to tar all Venezuelans as vile. They are desperate people living under serious oppression - the circumstances that lead people to do things that they wouldn't otherwise do.

Oh don't get me wrong I have empathy, but given the Venezuelan mafias are bribing Peruvians and Chileans on a daily basis and commiting horrible crimes in a place that isn't their home, I can't speak well about them. The ones I have empathy for are the genuine Venezuelans on the end of xenophobia who are left no choice as I said later in that post.

[Dr. Gonzo]

29 minutes ago, Goku de la Boca said:

Oh don't get me wrong I have empathy, but given the Venezuelan mafias are bribing Peruvians and Chileans on a daily basis and commiting horrible crimes in a place that isn't their home, I can't speak well about them. The ones I have empathy for are the genuine Venezuelans on the end of xenophobia who are left no choice as I said later in that post.

Yeah but attributing that to all Venezuelans, many of whom are simply trying to flee the shitty situation Maduro's government has caused, is just stupid. Also if bribery is a problem, it's not just the Venezuelan government to blame. Criminals, regardless of where they are from, will always take advantage of a culture of corruption. Bribery going far is indicative of a culture of corruption being rampant in Peru and Chile and is a societal issue for Peruvians and Chileans to address if the problem has gotten out of hand.

Making blanket statements like "they are vile from their government to their people" because of the actions of criminals is no different to those people who are anti-Latino in the US because Mexican cartels cause crime in the US. Or people who are anti-black in the US because "they have gangs and commit crimes." Or the many people around the world that end up hating anyone from the Middle East because "they're all terrorists."

That kind of thinking doesn't actually address any problems, it just causes bigotry to spread.

[Goku de la Boca]

Appears the war might start today. Maduro is starting to move his troops.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67635646

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 06/12/2023 at 08:17, Goku de la Boca said:

Appears the war might start today. Maduro is starting to move his troops.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-67635646

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2023/12/07/Blinken-Guyana-Venezuela-Essequibo/7051701954496/

ExxonMobil's heavily invested in Guyana, so it's basically a given that if Venezuela does attempt to annex the area that the US will have a serious response.

[6666]

On 05/12/2023 at 07:10, Goku de la Boca said:

They have become a vile nation from their government to their people.

The similarities to Israel continue...

Nothing will happen though. Unless you're a massively powerful nation like Russia or China, you have to be a US ally if you want to commit wars.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, 6666 said:

Unless you're a massively powerful nation like Russia or China, you have to be a US ally if you want to commit wars.

Aw bless, do you think media coverage is necessary for a war to be going on? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

[6666]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Aw bless, do you think media coverage is necessary for a war to be going on? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts

Aw gee mister, thanks for being super pedantic and providing a link about wars.

[Dr. Gonzo]

29 minutes ago, 6666 said:

Aw gee mister, thanks for being super pedantic and providing a link about wars.

Just trying to let you know there's more to the world than the news and social media are showing you.

[Goku de la Boca]