Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted March 11 Administrator Share Posted March 11 Bold = home fixture Italics - away fixture Underlined - relegation rival fixture That's the state of play at the moment. Crystal Palace have some very difficult fixtures to come - by far the highest average of opponent ranking given they still play Man City, Liverpool, West Ham, Man Utd & Aston Villa within their final 7. If Burnley had more about them, their final game against Forest might have actually meant something. Everton playing 4 of their relegation rivals in a row (re-arranged games in hand still to be decided) could be pivotal before playing Arsenal on the final day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,206 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 We have just come out of a run of games that has included Spurs, Man City x2, Liverpool and Arsenal and it went as badly as you'd expect it to. Still without 6 of our starting eleven, still without any degree of pace going forward which is why we've looked so bad in attack against the teams we've just played. The plus side is that we should have Bryan Mbeumo back for the United game, at least that's what we're hoping for. If we get him back then it's a game changer as we can actually hit teams on the counter. We now get to play Burnley, United, Brighton, Villa, Sheffield United, Luton Town, Everton, Fulham, Bournemouth and Newcastle. A couple of games we should expect to win there, looking specifically at Burnley, Sheffield United and Fulham. Then you have sides like Luton and Everton who should technically be winnable but it'll be difficult to take a result away at Goodison Park and Kenilworth Road. Then you have the rest, Brighton, United, Villa, Bournemouth and Newcastle. Teams who have performed well for periods this season but ultimately they can be up and down. I think 15 points is salvageable out of that, hopefully we can get players like Schade, Hickey, Pinnock and Mbeumo back into the team and I think the closer we get to full strength the more likely we are to put in a good run of performances towards the end to veer away from what is the current bottom 3 and then Nottingham Forest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,663 Posted March 11 Subscriber Share Posted March 11 Prevailing knowledge seems to be that Everton will be docked 2 points for the second breach and Forest should be getting 6 taken off, possibly more. We're on a shambolic run of 11 games without a win. It sounds worse than it is to be fair. We picked up 5 draws in that time despite playing Man City twice, Spurs twice, Villa at home, Wolves away, Brighton away, Fulham away and Man Utd away. None of those are games that could go down as "expect to win". The problem is that we didn't take advantage of Palace at home just before they appointed a new manager, that we squandered a 1-0 lead against ten men in injury time at Brighton, and the capitulation at home to West Ham. Luton showed character to rescue a point at Palace but largely, I think their purple patch is over. I wouldn't rule them out in too many games but they also have a tough run-in. Forest should be getting hit with a penalty that'll put them about 6-7 points behind us. I was a little bit worried about their uptick in form when they changed manager but it seems to have fizzled out and I don't know if they've got it in them to claw back the points they're likely to get deducted. We've got Bournemouth and Luton away and Forest, Brentford, Burnley and Sheff Utd at home. I think it would take a pretty calamitous run-in for us to finish behind both Luton and Forest from where we're at. If we don't improve after this three-week break we have coming up, though, we'll be in serious trouble. It's when, not if, for Burnley and Sheffield United. Crystal Palace will be fine. That's a pretty nasty run-in for them after the next two games though. Brentford have a nicer run-in and they have a lot of those "maybe" games like Man Utd, Brighton, Fulham and Newcastle at home where you could quite easily catch those teams on a bad day and get a win that wouldn't necessarily go down as "expected". Both could have been in a proper scrap in a season without points deductions and the worst set of promoted sides we've seen in years but they've got enough this time around. I don't think either of them will get overtaken by any of Everton, Forest or Luton to be honest, let alone all three of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted March 11 Author Administrator Share Posted March 11 13 minutes ago, RandoEFC said: We've got Bournemouth and Luton away and Forest, Brentford, Burnley and Sheff Utd at home This reminds me of the fixtures we had at home in last season's run-in. Everton, Wolves, Bournemouth. All 3 around us in the relegation battle at the time. 'winnable' games but we ended up faltering. Games we should have put away (at least more than one of them, anyway). Only beat Wolves. It's at this time of season where you literally do or take anything to win. Can be the shittest performances all round but points matter more than performances. What perhaps makes it a bit more interesting this season is there seems to be key battles in all 3 main areas of the table, meaning there's more at stake towards end of the season instead of lots of dead rubbers. A proper title race, and several clubs competing for top 6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,663 Posted March 11 Subscriber Share Posted March 11 1 hour ago, Stan said: This reminds me of the fixtures we had at home in last season's run-in. Everton, Wolves, Bournemouth. All 3 around us in the relegation battle at the time. 'winnable' games but we ended up faltering. Games we should have put away (at least more than one of them, anyway). Only beat Wolves. It's at this time of season where you literally do or take anything to win. Can be the shittest performances all round but points matter more than performances. What perhaps makes it a bit more interesting this season is there seems to be key battles in all 3 main areas of the table, meaning there's more at stake towards end of the season instead of lots of dead rubbers. A proper title race, and several clubs competing for top 6. I'm usually quite pessimistic but teams have peaks and troughs throughout a season. If you look at it objectively, it's unlikely that a team like Everton who were somewhere around the outer European spots throughout November and December are unlikely to end the season on a run of 2 wins in 20 or whatever it would take for us to perform badly enough to be below Luton and a points-deducted Forest. By the same measure, it's unlikely that an Everton team capable of an 11-game winless run were ever going to maintain that pre-Christmas form for a full season. I expect us to regress to the mean. As much as losing at home to Brentford, Forest, even Burnley or Sheffield United wouldn't shock me in the slightest with this lot, it also wouldn't shock me to see us go and shit-house a 1-0 win at Chelsea or Newcastle to "make up for it". We've been in much worse positions than we are now in the last two seasons and when push came to shove, they found enough to dig themselves out. Unfortunately, they also have a tendency to leave themselves absolutely no margin for error so I fully expect to go into Sheffield United at home knowing that a win probably gets us over the line even though the fixtures we have and capability of the squad is such that it shouldn't need to go that far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas 3,827 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Lovely and refreshing not to be in here this year. @RandoEFC you done anything new with the place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Palace Fan 3,402 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Everton and Brentford will be fine. Everton will probably circle the plug hole another season but I wouldn't be surprised if Brentford alter there transfer strategy and find a way to become more succesful next season even without Toney. If we go down we only have ourselves to blame. Our starting XI is good enough to finish in the top half, but the gap between them and the rest of the team is pretty staggering. Without Eze, Olise, Doucoure and Guehi we have been putting out a team that would struggle to make the playoffs in The Championship. Imagine telling somebody a year ago we would sell Zaha and not replace him. There's no way Luton deserve to finish below us. I'm personally beyond caring what happens. I don't like the owners, I don't like vocal portions of our fan base, and the players I do like are going to be part of a wasted era in our history as we had in 1995. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,206 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 6 hours ago, The Palace Fan said: Everton and Brentford will be fine. Everton will probably circle the plug hole another season but I wouldn't be surprised if Brentford alter there transfer strategy and find a way to become more succesful next season even without Toney. If we go down we only have ourselves to blame. Our starting XI is good enough to finish in the top half, but the gap between them and the rest of the team is pretty staggering. Without Eze, Olise, Doucoure and Guehi we have been putting out a team that would struggle to make the playoffs in The Championship. Imagine telling somebody a year ago we would sell Zaha and not replace him. There's no way Luton deserve to finish below us. I'm personally beyond caring what happens. I don't like the owners, I don't like vocal portions of our fan base, and the players I do like are going to be part of a wasted era in our history as we had in 1995. Who knows how we improve next season, you can never really tell with our ownership. But I would say the main thing we would focus on is having strength in depth and probably adding more pace to the squad. Kevin Schade has been injured for 6 months and counting, Henry the whole season, Hickey 5 months and counting, Dasilva the whole season, Mbeumo three months, Ben Mee most of the season, Damsgaard 3 months, Lewis-Potter about 2 months, Ajer a month, new january signing Yunus Emre Konak instantly out till the Summer and then of course Toney's suspension and Wissa, Frank and Ghoddos' AFCON/ASIA Cup. What has been made very clear is thar without Henry, Schade, Mbeumo and Dasilva we have no pace and no direct attack. Lewis-Potter and Wissa can be thrown into that too, but Wissa is a very much a number 9 and Lewis-Potter has suffered so many injuries since joining it's difficult to get consistency from him. At mostly full strength, without Toney, and of course taking into the occasional injuries you may suffer in a 1-2 month period, we have a team that could easily fight for midtable and try to slip in for the Conference League spot should anyone above have a bad season and the Premier League get awarded an extra Champions League spot. That was my hope this season, and honestly until around early December we looked good for that. We had performed really well, were taking results and just had a couple of games where freak incidents gave points away for us. But with the consistency we built the team was going in the right direction. What has become unmanagable almost is the scale of injuries that we have suffered and the pace of the team completely shattered. We can sit back deep, defend well and then hit teams directly with Mbuemo, Dasilva and Schade on the pitch. Then you have Wissa who is still pacy and was scoring goals, you have Lewis-Potter who can grow into the wing position. But since losing the pace we have largely played a back 5 with no wingers. Improvement next season has to be in making sure even when we lose players, we still have pace across the squad. And then of course it's just trying to improve the first eleven with good signings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Palace Fan 3,402 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 3 hours ago, Danny said: Who knows how we improve next season, you can never really tell with our ownership. But I would say the main thing we would focus on is having strength in depth and probably adding more pace to the squad. Kevin Schade has been injured for 6 months and counting, Henry the whole season, Hickey 5 months and counting, Dasilva the whole season, Mbeumo three months, Ben Mee most of the season, Damsgaard 3 months, Lewis-Potter about 2 months, Ajer a month, new january signing Yunus Emre Konak instantly out till the Summer and then of course Toney's suspension and Wissa, Frank and Ghoddos' AFCON/ASIA Cup. What has been made very clear is thar without Henry, Schade, Mbeumo and Dasilva we have no pace and no direct attack. Lewis-Potter and Wissa can be thrown into that too, but Wissa is a very much a number 9 and Lewis-Potter has suffered so many injuries since joining it's difficult to get consistency from him. At mostly full strength, without Toney, and of course taking into the occasional injuries you may suffer in a 1-2 month period, we have a team that could easily fight for midtable and try to slip in for the Conference League spot should anyone above have a bad season and the Premier League get awarded an extra Champions League spot. That was my hope this season, and honestly until around early December we looked good for that. We had performed really well, were taking results and just had a couple of games where freak incidents gave points away for us. But with the consistency we built the team was going in the right direction. What has become unmanagable almost is the scale of injuries that we have suffered and the pace of the team completely shattered. We can sit back deep, defend well and then hit teams directly with Mbuemo, Dasilva and Schade on the pitch. Then you have Wissa who is still pacy and was scoring goals, you have Lewis-Potter who can grow into the wing position. But since losing the pace we have largely played a back 5 with no wingers. Improvement next season has to be in making sure even when we lose players, we still have pace across the squad. And then of course it's just trying to improve the first eleven with good signings. It feels like with the additional fixtures and interupted season breaks for international tournaments that having several registered players injured at the same time will be a common occurance for most clubs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,206 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 44 minutes ago, The Palace Fan said: It feels like with the additional fixtures and interupted season breaks for international tournaments that having several registered players injured at the same time will be a common occurance for most clubs. The last two seasons our injuries have been okay, we've had them, but not to an unmanageable level. This season is just crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Palace Fan 3,402 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 2 hours ago, Danny said: The last two seasons our injuries have been okay, we've had them, but not to an unmanageable level. This season is just crazy. It feels like that for most clubs this season. Off the top of my head Man United, Newcastle, Brighton, Chelsea, Brentford, Palace, Fulham and Forest fans have complained about having more injuries than usual for long periods. I don't think we've had Olise and Eze start more than four games for us this season, and I don't think they've both played alongside Doucoure at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted March 18 Author Administrator Share Posted March 18 Not much has changed barring Luton playing twice and a Burnley win. Goal difference looks like it'll hinder Burnley & Sheff Utd on top of the points they have to try and wrestle back. Palace are probably actually safe, and can be sure of that even more if they beat Forest in the next round after internationals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,663 Posted March 18 Subscriber Share Posted March 18 After we lost to Man Utd we faced the prospect of Luton playing three times and Forest playing twice before the international break, and it looks like we'll actually be further from 18th than we were which is nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas 3,827 Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 It will still be Luton, Burnley, Sheffield United as we all thought and predicted from the start won't it. Just not good enough. Luton letting a 3 goal lead slip at Bournemouth and losing was massive. Those 3pts might have given a bit of cause for concern to the others. It speaks volumes about the standard of the other bottom half clubs that two clubs can be handed points deductions and very likely still stay up without it being too much of a panic attack. In an ideal world, it needs Luton to get a win out of nowhere to really put the cat amongst the pigeons, but with Spurs, Arsenal and City coming in three of the next four, I think it offers the others in front the chance to pick up a win/draw and get a buffer before the last lot of games. What they do at home was always going to be crucial to their fight and it's going to come down to those four home games they have left to make any decent fist of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted April 2 Author Administrator Share Posted April 2 Updated after the weekend and for GW34 rescheduled games: Have also taken out Crystal Palace for now because there needs to be an 8-point swing in Luton's favour currently, and it's very unlikely that happens... A difficult GW31 beckons for all teams - as they all take on teams in the top half and all teams vying for a European spot, barring Forest who host Fulham. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,206 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Hopefully Luton can beat Forest to staying up, it'd be great to see how they do next season under Edwards with a bit more investment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted April 2 Author Administrator Share Posted April 2 46 minutes ago, Danny said: Hopefully Luton can beat Forest to staying up, it'd be great to see how they do next season under Edwards with a bit more investment. Unless Edwards get snapped up by someone else. Hopefully not, and I'd love to see Luton survive considering their comparative budget and history. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUFC 1,503 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Can you imagine with 3 games to go. Everton, Luton and Forest are level on points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted April 2 Author Administrator Share Posted April 2 I predicted this: https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-premier-league/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,663 Posted April 2 Subscriber Share Posted April 2 We should probably still be fine as long as the corrupt, incompetent dickheads at the PL don't give us an inexplicably large points penalty again. What's annoying is that after that run in December, this team gave itself a headstart and a chance to put Brentford and possibly Palace between themselves and the relegation zone so that we could go into this final stretch with the pressure pretty much off and a bit of a cushion to protect us from a further points deduction. Unfortunately after a difficult run of fixtures we decided to go full Lampard for the last 5-6 fixtures and we're bang in trouble again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted April 5 Author Administrator Share Posted April 5 The 3 sitting just above the drop zone all picked up valuable points against higher opposition, with Forest the only team out of the bottom 6 to win. Sheff Utd have to find a way of gaining 10 points in the final 8 games, very unlikely when you consider 3 of their last 5 are against opposition vying for a European place. Forest arguably have the most difficult fixture, perhaps along with Brentford. But it looks like the bottom 3 may find themselves cut adrift within the next 2 weeks... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,206 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 49 minutes ago, Stan said: The 3 sitting just above the drop zone all picked up valuable points against higher opposition, with Forest the only team out of the bottom 6 to win. Sheff Utd have to find a way of gaining 10 points in the final 8 games, very unlikely when you consider 3 of their last 5 are against opposition vying for a European place. Forest arguably have the most difficult fixture, perhaps along with Brentford. But it looks like the bottom 3 may find themselves cut adrift within the next 2 weeks... If we can beat Sheffield United and Luton then that would put us 12 points above Luton assuming they don't close the gap in the meantime, which would pretty much leave us safe with the last 4 games to go. Tbh I expect us to get away comfortably now, but you never what will happen. Good news is that Wissa has played so well that Mbeumo started as a sub against Brighton, but I think Mbeumo will return against Villa. Schade should be on the bench too so we have options now. I don't think we'll get a result but I'd really love a win at Villa, the game at the Gtech left a sour taste. Got a feeling they'll be too strong for us, expecting Watkins to score as the away end boos him lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted April 5 Author Administrator Share Posted April 5 41 minutes ago, Danny said: If we can beat Sheffield United and Luton then that would put us 12 points above Luton assuming they don't close the gap in the meantime, which would pretty much leave us safe with the last 4 games to go. Tbh I expect us to get away comfortably now, but you never what will happen. Good news is that Wissa has played so well that Mbeumo started as a sub against Brighton, but I think Mbeumo will return against Villa. Schade should be on the bench too so we have options now. I don't think we'll get a result but I'd really love a win at Villa, the game at the Gtech left a sour taste. Got a feeling they'll be too strong for us, expecting Watkins to score as the away end boos him lol. Depends if Watkins is fit enough. I think you're right that you'll be safe. Especially given you play Sheff Utd on the day Luton play Man City away. I can see them getting a result at home to Bournemouth, but if you're beating Sheff Utd and Luton you'll be more than safe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,663 Posted April 5 Subscriber Share Posted April 5 Really we should beat Burnley this weekend and put some space between us and the relegation zone. That would effectively kill them off I think as well. We should then be able to get a good haul from Sheff Utd, Brentford and Forest all at home. As long as we avoid defeat at Luton then I think we'll be good even if a couple more points get deducted. I don't trust us to do any of that though and am emotionally ready to go into Sheff Utd at home needing a win to guarantee safety before we go to Arsenal on the final day. The prize? Looking forward to another relegation battle and likely points deduction next season, but after we've sold Onana and Branthwaite and can only afford 35 year old free transfers to replace them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,386 Posted April 8 Author Administrator Share Posted April 8 No changes in positions but Brentford picked up another crucial point towards safety. Everton got 3 but have had two of those taken back by the Premier League, which means Luton and Forest are now only 2 behind them. In a weird twist of fate, Week 34 sees all six teams involved against each other. Bottom two play each other, Brentford play Luton and Forest play Everton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.