Danny 2,207 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Big chance to get 3 points now, I know Sheffield United are still causing teams some problems even if they are dead and buried, but we have to win that game to give us a jump on relegation. We’ve done well to pick up draws against 3 difficult teams, now we need to try and build a 7 point difference between us and 18th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeKhrush 298 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 On 11/03/2024 at 12:59, Stan said: Bold = home fixture Italics - away fixture Underlined - relegation rival fixture That's the state of play at the moment. Crystal Palace have some very difficult fixtures to come - by far the highest average of opponent ranking given they still play Man City, Liverpool, West Ham, Man Utd & Aston Villa within their final 7. If Burnley had more about them, their final game against Forest might have actually meant something. Everton playing 4 of their relegation rivals in a row (re-arranged games in hand still to be decided) could be pivotal before playing Arsenal on the final day. We have a game against Palace that is still TBA which was rescheduled due to our FA Cup tie with City. So there is one more fixture for Palace 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeKhrush 298 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 I think it's going to be tight on who joins Sheffield United. Luton, Forest, Everton and Brentford are capable of winning games and keeping that trap door open. I think Brentford will get out of trouble and Palace should be to good to go down but I think 4-5 teams will be within 3-5 points of relegation. If I were a betting man I'd put the same three sides that came up, go back down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redcanuck 175 Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Do Forest still face another point deduction? If so I think they go down with Sheffield United and Burnley. If not it's between Forest and Luton for the third team to drop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,664 Posted April 9 Subscriber Share Posted April 9 3 hours ago, Redcanuck said: Do Forest still face another point deduction? If so I think they go down with Sheffield United and Burnley. If not it's between Forest and Luton for the third team to drop. Nah, Forest have an appeal open which means, if anything, they could get points back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,389 Posted April 16 Author Administrator Share Posted April 16 Brentford edged towards safety with a win over 20th-placed Sheff Utd. Everton took a hammering to dent their chances of survival, but perhaps more importantly their goal difference. Burnley squandered 3 points after a goalkeeper howler, and Forest held on to pick up a point against Wolves. Luton were predictably beaten away at Man City. All 6 sides involved against each other - a rare occurrence at this stage of the season but will no doubt be extremely decisive. Brentford could create a 10pt gap to the relegation zone and pretty much guarantee survival, whilst Everton play Forest in the first of 3 important home games. 3 of their remaining 6 games are at home to relegation rivals... Luton will be out of the drop zone if they win, regardless of what happens in the Everton/Forest game. And Burnley could close the gap to 3 points with a win and a Forest loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,664 Posted April 16 Subscriber Share Posted April 16 Need Brentford to win and get themselves on the beach by the time they come to Goodison. Whatever happened since Christmas, we've been the 18th or 19th best team in the league since then. We could have got away with it based on our first half of the season but the points deductions have taken that off us. Forest and Luton will both be licking their lips at the prospect of facing us in the run-in. Need favours from elsewhere again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Palace Fan 3,404 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 It feels weird we are seemingly out of this given the season we've had and the results against Luton, Forest and Everton. Sadly I think the bottom three are set now. Next season will be more interesting looking at the top four in The Championship, Palace likely to lose Olise and another, Brentford likely to lose Toney, Forest likely to lose Gibbs-White and Everton may find it difficult to strengthen. I think Palace and Brentford will adapt but I'm not sure about the other two. Wolves always seem close on the PSR limit too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,207 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 16 hours ago, The Palace Fan said: It feels weird we are seemingly out of this given the season we've had and the results against Luton, Forest and Everton. Sadly I think the bottom three are set now. Next season will be more interesting looking at the top four in The Championship, Palace likely to lose Olise and another, Brentford likely to lose Toney, Forest likely to lose Gibbs-White and Everton may find it difficult to strengthen. I think Palace and Brentford will adapt but I'm not sure about the other two. Wolves always seem close on the PSR limit too. If Leeds come up I think they'll go back down, same for Saints. I think Leicester would have the best chance of staying up just because I think they have a decent amount of players there that know what the Premier League is about and that can play in it to a good level. Bit like Bournemouth when they came back up I felt the same. Ipswich could stay up just because of them being an unknown quantity in the way Sheffield United were a few years ago. For us it's difficult to predict injuries but losing Ivan Toney will not put us in a relegation battle, in fact for most of the season we were without him we were comfortably midtable with performances in some draws that suggested we should have been higher. Then the injuries came and we struggled heavily. I think in the Summer we will strengthen in midfield, centre back and at wing-back too so that we don't find ourselves in this position. We've made 7 different selections at left back this season alone. You lot I think will be fine, Glasner clearly knows what he's doing and tbh it is a massive coup that you've signed him. If you can keep your best players, or at least Olise/Eze, and carrying on making shrewd signings like Wharton then I don't see why you can't push for Conference League next season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrangeKhrush 298 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 I may have put to much on Everton basing it off a period in December/Jan when it looked like they would never lose again. At that point without evertons 10 point deduction they would have been 4 points behind us. since the don't know what has happened but if Everton don't find that fighting spirit soon, it may be adios amigos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael 1,117 Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 I'd like to see Burnley stay up, as far as the northern clubs are concerned, I do have a soft spot for them. Burnley's 4-1 thrashing of bottom club Sheffield United was a much needed win, but they need to find some more wins if they are to avoid the drop. Hopefully Burnley stay up, but I'd be happy to see Luton Town go down with Sheffield United. I don't mind Forrest, but I'd rather they get relegated instead of Burnley. I don't think Everton or Brentford will go down, they look like the strongest of the sides down at the bottom in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUFC 1,503 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 Teams currently above the the bottom 3 will stay. Especially with Luton having gone into full on ghandu mode. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reluctant Striker 134 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 It has been sad for the state of English club football that the 3 promoted teams have done so badly. The most Luton & Burnley can get to is 37 & 36 points. And they will not be getting there. I'd say Forest have tougher games than Everton, but feels like both should do enough. Could be the least dramatic area of the table this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,664 Posted April 21 Subscriber Share Posted April 21 9 minutes ago, Reluctant Striker said: It has been sad for the state of English club football that the 3 promoted teams have done so badly. The most Luton & Burnley can get to is 37 & 36 points. And they will not be getting there. I'd say Forest have tougher games than Everton, but feels like both should do enough. Could be the least dramatic area of the table this season. I agree to a point. Luton were always bringing a knife to a gun fight and Sheffield United were always going to struggle after losing Ndiaye and Berge and not really replacing them. Burnley dominated in the Championship and invested in the summer though, I think they're more of a case of under-performing than never having a chance to bridge the gap. No excuses for them really not to be pushing Everton and Forest really hard with their deductions. I agree though that this season has shown off the gulf really badly when you look at how the relegated clubs have smashed the Championship apart from Ipswich. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,207 Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 In fairness to Luton the way they’ve played it they will likely make a bit of money in the Summer from sales and get to re-invest and go again, obviously they will make good use of parachute payments too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan 18,389 Posted April 22 Author Administrator Share Posted April 22 A dramatic weekend with some thrashings handed out on one day, and plenty of controversy the next day! Sheff Utd and Luton were the biggest losers, literally. Being on the end of 4-1 and 5-1 thrashings respectively hasn't helped their survival course. Sheff Utd are pretty much relegated with needing to overturn a 10-point gap in 5 games, even if they do still have to play the two sides directly above the relegation zone for now. Luton have a much better chance of survival despite their loss, with only being 1 point off survival and still have to play Everton at home... It's looking likely that Burnley vs Forest on the final day could be a relegation showdown... Everton and Sheff Utd involved in their games-in-hand - both against top 6 opposition. Now would be a great time for Everton to pick up a Merseyside derby win, but if they don't, their next 3 are against relegation rivals as an equally good chance to pick up points... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ 1,918 Posted April 23 Subscriber Share Posted April 23 I'm probably far more resigned to Forest's survival than I should be given the points difference. Luton's games really aren't that bad. But I just have no faith in them to deliver and Forest have already developed the Everton syndrome of always getting the result when they need it most. I bet Forest fudge both of those away games then go and beat Chelsea or some other bullshit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ 1,918 Posted April 23 Subscriber Share Posted April 23 On 21/04/2024 at 14:12, Danny said: In fairness to Luton the way they’ve played it they will likely make a bit of money in the Summer from sales and get to re-invest and go again, obviously they will make good use of parachute payments too. Luton fan I work with has said to me for years if they ever made it to the Premier League they would treat it as a cash cow to get themselves in order, to sort out a new stadium etc... and that they would not make any serious fist of survival. To have that go up alongside a calamity Sheffield United and a Burnley side who've badly underperformed. Forest and Everton are lucky their deductions have come this season. I expect us to hit one next year and we're not getting this sort of luxury. I do think Luton will be back and they've been good value for the league, they're a genuinely fun team. Probably the nearest thing to Holloway's Blackpool. I just hope they have a slightly better legacy - I think they will though. They haven't been promoted four times in ten years by being daft. Got a lot of time for Luton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,664 Posted April 23 Subscriber Share Posted April 23 4 hours ago, Dan said: Luton fan I work with has said to me for years if they ever made it to the Premier League they would treat it as a cash cow to get themselves in order, to sort out a new stadium etc... and that they would not make any serious fist of survival. To have that go up alongside a calamity Sheffield United and a Burnley side who've badly underperformed. Forest and Everton are lucky their deductions have come this season. I expect us to hit one next year and we're not getting this sort of luxury. I do think Luton will be back and they've been good value for the league, they're a genuinely fun team. Probably the nearest thing to Holloway's Blackpool. I just hope they have a slightly better legacy - I think they will though. They haven't been promoted four times in ten years by being daft. Got a lot of time for Luton. You have to go a long way to put "Everton" and "lucky" in the same sentence over the past few years. I'm mostly of the same school of thought but this football club has become absolutely allergic to being anywhere other than 15th-17th in the table. A part of me genuinely believes that if we'd have had the 6 point penalty last season then we'd have just found an extra two wins and if we'd have been deducted 2 points this season instead of 8 then we'd have just lost two extra games and ended up in the same position. Like you say, we've developed a knack of finding a win when we most need it but we also have a massive knack of failing to win any match that would see us climb to 13th/14th and allow the fanbase to actually sleep well for a couple of weeks. I admire what Luton have done of course. There's a lot of base sympathy for the underdog. But I also think their fans and the people involved with the club are just as big of a set of twats as everyone else and the fact that their squad costs naff all and their matches have a lot of goals in them doesn't change that. They were one of the worst fan-bases to come up to Goodison (twice) this season singing "feed the scousers" and "bin-dippers" and whatever else they think is funny. This attempted media narrative and their owner thinking that they've been hard done by because Everton have "only" been deducted 8 points when they're the only team in Premier League history to fight for survival against two teams that have had points removed is a bit hard to swallow as well. Not to do them down too much. They've punched above their weight and have certainly made a mockery of Burnley's attempt to stay in the league. I'd also rather see Luton stay up than Forest, especially after Forest's antics in the last few days and earlier this season. I'd also rather be competing against Luton when we're inevitably in another relegation fight next season because as entertaining as their matches are, as a relegation rival I'm quite glad to know that Luton can go into any given game and are probably going to concede anything between 3 and 5 goals. Hopefully for their sake, Danny is right and at least that style of play will see them fetch some good fees for the attacking players who have been allowed to put up some decent numbers as a result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ 1,918 Posted April 23 Subscriber Share Posted April 23 6 hours ago, RandoEFC said: You have to go a long way to put "Everton" and "lucky" in the same sentence over the past few years. I'm mostly of the same school of thought but this football club has become absolutely allergic to being anywhere other than 15th-17th in the table. A part of me genuinely believes that if we'd have had the 6 point penalty last season then we'd have just found an extra two wins and if we'd have been deducted 2 points this season instead of 8 then we'd have just lost two extra games and ended up in the same position. Like you say, we've developed a knack of finding a win when we most need it but we also have a massive knack of failing to win any match that would see us climb to 13th/14th and allow the fanbase to actually sleep well for a couple of weeks. I admire what Luton have done of course. There's a lot of base sympathy for the underdog. But I also think their fans and the people involved with the club are just as big of a set of twats as everyone else and the fact that their squad costs naff all and their matches have a lot of goals in them doesn't change that. They were one of the worst fan-bases to come up to Goodison (twice) this season singing "feed the scousers" and "bin-dippers" and whatever else they think is funny. This attempted media narrative and their owner thinking that they've been hard done by because Everton have "only" been deducted 8 points when they're the only team in Premier League history to fight for survival against two teams that have had points removed is a bit hard to swallow as well. Not to do them down too much. They've punched above their weight and have certainly made a mockery of Burnley's attempt to stay in the league. I'd also rather see Luton stay up than Forest, especially after Forest's antics in the last few days and earlier this season. I'd also rather be competing against Luton when we're inevitably in another relegation fight next season because as entertaining as their matches are, as a relegation rival I'm quite glad to know that Luton can go into any given game and are probably going to concede anything between 3 and 5 goals. Hopefully for their sake, Danny is right and at least that style of play will see them fetch some good fees for the attacking players who have been allowed to put up some decent numbers as a result. It's the one particular point about points deductions and the timing. You couldn't have had a better year to have it - this is pretty much certainly the worst bottom three there's ever been and like I say, if we get one next season (which I'm pretty sure we are going to) then I highly doubt we're going to have this luxury. It'd probably be in our interests for Ipswich and Norwich to come up with us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,664 Posted April 23 Subscriber Share Posted April 23 3 hours ago, Dan said: It's the one particular point about points deductions and the timing. You couldn't have had a better year to have it - this is pretty much certainly the worst bottom three there's ever been and like I say, if we get one next season (which I'm pretty sure we are going to) then I highly doubt we're going to have this luxury. It'd probably be in our interests for Ipswich and Norwich to come up with us. I'd be surprised if we didn't get hit with a points deduction next season too to be honest looking at our last set of accounts but at least we'll never get done for two time periods in the same season again. There was some talk about Leeds' accounts looking bad a few weeks ago as well. This is the new football now. Sad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Palace Fan 3,404 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, RandoEFC said: I'd be surprised if we didn't get hit with a points deduction next season too to be honest looking at our last set of accounts but at least we'll never get done for two time periods in the same season again. There was some talk about Leeds' accounts looking bad a few weeks ago as well. This is the new football now. Sad. To be fair, the clubs that have pushed the limits of the restrictions have created this 'sad' new football. Clubs like ourselves shouldn't be at a sporting disadvantage for abiding to the restrictions set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,664 Posted April 23 Subscriber Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, The Palace Fan said: To be fair, the clubs that have pushed the limits of the restrictions have created this 'sad' new football. Clubs like ourselves shouldn't be at a sporting disadvantage for abiding to the restrictions set. I get what you're saying but those that have implemented the rules, sanctions and timelines have seen the league table altered in the courts 4 times this season and it could be 6 by the time the appeals processes are wrapped up. The clubs and the organisation itself both have to take responsibility for that. Regardless of who you blame for it, and I'm certainly not trying to make out that Everton are innocent here or shifting the blame elsewhere, but it is an absolutely whopping load of shite for the league table to be altered in any way by off the pitch events. The clubs that have pushed the envelope could still be punished by a sporting disadvantage by not being able to register new players, for example, whilst still having a league table that is solely decided by what's actually happened on the football pitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny 2,207 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 12 hours ago, RandoEFC said: I get what you're saying but those that have implemented the rules, sanctions and timelines have seen the league table altered in the courts 4 times this season and it could be 6 by the time the appeals processes are wrapped up. The clubs and the organisation itself both have to take responsibility for that. Regardless of who you blame for it, and I'm certainly not trying to make out that Everton are innocent here or shifting the blame elsewhere, but it is an absolutely whopping load of shite for the league table to be altered in any way by off the pitch events. The clubs that have pushed the envelope could still be punished by a sporting disadvantage by not being able to register new players, for example, whilst still having a league table that is solely decided by what's actually happened on the football pitch. Tbh I don't know much about the Everton case and who is right and who is wrong. But I do think that if you gain a sporting advantage then you should be given a disadvantage and a points deduction is completely fair for doing that. The issue is ofc being able to identify correctly who has broken the rules and then being able to punish them swiftly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber RandoEFC+ 7,664 Posted Wednesday at 12:19 Subscriber Share Posted Wednesday at 12:19 3 hours ago, Danny said: Tbh I don't know much about the Everton case and who is right and who is wrong. But I do think that if you gain a sporting advantage then you should be given a disadvantage and a points deduction is completely fair for doing that. The issue is ofc being able to identify correctly who has broken the rules and then being able to punish them swiftly. Everton's situation boils down to the fact that we have an owner who wants out and isn't really funding the club anymore, his main source of money was Alisher Usmanov whose assets were frozen because of links to Putin costing us loads of sponsorship money (e.g. he was sponsoring our training facilities for what nobody can deny was a very inflated rate) which is why the club tried to use the Ukraine war as a mitigating factor in the case. Add to that the financial drain of building a new stadium and having a relatively poor cash flow through our own sponsorship deals, kit deals, matchday revenue, etc. (all again linked to the lack of leadership at the top of the club while the owner is absent and waiting for the sale to go through) means the club is losing money hand over fist. Everton thought they were just about compliant because of thinking some interest they'd had to pay on a stadium loan wasn't included in the FFP calculations but were found guilty because you can only omit those from the calculation if the *stated purpose* of the loan was to fund infrastructure (the stadium). Moshiri funded the stadium with his own (Usmanov's) money and took the loan to help with day to day running costs. Then Ukraine happened, the loaned money had to be re-directed to the stadium due to the loss of Usmanov's money and therefore the interest payments counted as losses when it came to the FFP calculations. The counter-argument is "well Everton shouldn't have spent £30m on Onana that year and then they wouldn't have breached" but because of that interest stuff, the club thought they had that to spend. It's all VERY interesting and exciting, but the bottom line is I think we've been a bit unlucky and the club is more guilty of clumsy accounting and generally not being run very well more than cheating or financial doping. I think the Forest case where they've signed 42 players since being promoted and continued to spend on Chris Wood, for example, last January, who directly helped them to stay up at the expense of Leicester and co., when they knew the deal would take them over the FFP threshold, is probably worthy of a points penalty if anything is. It's why our fanbase was so outraged when they only got 4 points and we got 10 reduced to 6. The Premier League should actually have a sanctions policy written down though so that all of this back and forth and appeal stuff can get in the bin and take all these asterisks away from the league table. Even now, Everton and Forest might get back a point or two from their appeals which means Luton don't know what they need to do with 4 games left to survive. They could go and get a point at Wolves and then find out later that they really needed to push for the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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