2024-2025 sack race

[Dan+]

I keep flip-flopping on Ipswich. I thought they were screwed after they blew it against us, had a shot after the Spurs game and then have gone and blown it again after collecting 0 points from Palace/Bournemouth at home.

They will go down. They just haven't got the quality. They've gone up a bit too early (if such a thing exists) and I would assume that a lot of their business factored in this likelihood.

Southampton are obviously going. Then it's probably either Leicester, Wolves or Everton. At the minute I think you would have to edge towards Wolves. Leicester v Wolves next week could really swing things.

On the sack race I got Postecoglou at 18/1 last week as well with the thinking being that he'd lose to Chelsea and possibly go before West Ham v Wolves took place on the Monday night. This didn't work out, but as it happens West Ham v Wolves did somehow produce an outcome where neither went so we live to fight another day. I do still think O'Neil and Lopetegui are on very thin ice though. I think a loss on Saturday to Ipswich might do O'Neil despite the vote of confidence. Wolves fans I follow seem to be going through what we did in 2022/23 which is pretty ominous for them. They're in complete shock that O'Neil's still in a job.

With another mediocre result in the week and a trip to Southampton this weekend, I think Postecoglou could be in trouble. My opinion of him really has nosedived in 2024. My Howe bet odds have come in a bit as well. Definitely starting to sense a turning tide there and if they lost at home to us I think he'd be right in the discussion.

It's such a cruel market but it's quite a fun one I have to admit. There's often decent value to be had and it swings so much.

[Dave]

On 11/12/2024 at 20:12, RandoEFC said:

They need two really. Even if they manage to stay ahead of Wolves, they need to clear Everton, Palace or Leicester as well and with 1 win in 15 games it's far from straightforward to overhaul the 4-5 point gap they already have to those teams.

Against us, they looked like a team of individuals that had been grouped together recently. In the second half of the season you'd expect that to improve, and they're not getting thrashed to teams like the sides last season were. They're losing matches by small margins. 

If I was to name a three to go down now they'll be in it. But I wouldn't have my eyebrows raised if they put a run together that sees Everton, Wolves or Leicester panic.

[Dan+]

On 13/12/2024 at 06:14, Dan said:

I keep flip-flopping on Ipswich. I thought they were screwed after they blew it against us, had a shot after the Spurs game and then have gone and blown it again after collecting 0 points from Palace/Bournemouth at home.

Every fucking time - they've done it again.

[LFCMike]

O'Neill sacked

[RandoEFC+]

Long overdue for them. They should have enough to stay up if they get the right manager in. Their defence is absolutely awful though.

[RandoEFC+]

The fact that Ait Nouri got sent off after the final whistle yesterday and Cunha could face retrospective action for this little incident isn't a great immediate future for them though...

 

 

[Stan]

Shame O'Neil couldn't have lasted another week but I expect Cunha to be out for them which is a big bonus for us. 

However that bonus is immediately negated if Ward has to start in goal for us. 

[Stan]

That's Martin done and dusted. 

[RandoEFC+]

Weird. The fact he made it this long said to me Southampton basically weren't arsed about this season. Bit late to change their mind at this point. 

[Rick]

The wolves owners are a disgrace, and the fans shout be rioting if they go down. Constantly selling their best players and not replacing them. They’ve had 200m from four players in the last two summers, and barely any of it has gone back into replacements. O’Neill has something about him from the job he did and Bournemouth, and after last season you would have expected the owners to have backed him more. 

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Rick said:

The wolves owners are a disgrace, and the fans shout be rioting if they go down. Constantly selling their best players and not replacing them. They’ve had 200m from four players in the last two summers, and barely any of it has gone back into replacements. O’Neill has something about him from the job he did and Bournemouth, and after last season you would have expected the owners to have backed him more. 

They must have some sort of financial trouble in the background because people in the know have been saying they were trying to avoid paying O'Neil out of his four year contract so that they could invest in the squad in January but now they've had their hand forced.

I don't know how that's happened, whether they have a bunch of loans to pay off or something, because they haven't got an obvious major source of outgoing money like a new stadium or a massive spend on players. They were one of the fanbases who were a bit smug last season to be honest boasting about how well-behaved their club has been while Everton, Forest, Villa and Newcastle have been scrambling to stay on the right side of the PSR rules. Now they want their owners hung, drawn and quartered. Again it goes back to the fact that under the current system, the majority of clubs, unless your scouting super-computer is as good as Brighton's or Brentford's (and not everyone can have the best one) have to choose between selling their best players and risk falling into the bottom three, or taking risks financially and risk falling the wrong side of the PSR line.

[RandoEFC+]

Wolves going for Vitor Pereira by the sounds of it.

I remember when we sacked Benitez that it came down to Pereira or Lampard and we were dead set against him. I can't remember why  but it makes me feel okay about that appointment. I'd have been concerned if it was Moyes coming in.

Wolves have really wasted the Everton - West Ham - Ipswich - Leicester run, even if they get something in the last of those games. After that they've got a pretty horrid run until late February where they play most of the top teams. Ait Nouri is banned and Cunha could be looking at a ban as well. If they can't invest in a couple of defenders in January then they might well be cut pretty far adrift by the time they see some winnable games. Fingers crossed from our perspective...

[RandoEFC+]

Dyche and Howe are now the only 2 English managers left in the Premier League. Neither of them are exactly nailed on to see the season out with their clubs either, with Everton changing owners this month and Newcastle not really kicking on from mid-table.

If one or both of those clubs pulled the plug, you could see either of them trying to convince Graham Potter to come in but if he doesn't, there's every chance you could see a Premier League without a single English manager in the not-so-distant future.

[Gunnersaurus]

Southampton manager sacked. I think it was inevitable. Not to sure how much of it is really his fault. Not sure if they really have the squad to compete but it was bound to happen. I don't know if they will be able to attract a great manager when you look at where they are 

[Stan]

14 minutes ago, Gunnersaurus said:

Southampton manager sacked. I think it was inevitable. Not to sure how much of it is really his fault. Not sure if they really have the squad to compete but it was bound to happen. I don't know if they will be able to attract a great manager when you look at where they are 

You never seem to agree with any sacking

'Not too sure how much of it is really his fault' - sorry but had you seen them play and commit the same mistakes over and over and over again, primarily down to how he is setting them up to play. They're being asked to play out from the back every single game and a lot of the goals conceded are down to this philosophy. 

They're down there perhaps partly because of their squad but almost definitely because Martin isn't that good a manager for them.

[RandoEFC+]

6 minutes ago, Gunnersaurus said:

Southampton manager sacked. I think it was inevitable. Not to sure how much of it is really his fault. Not sure if they really have the squad to compete but it was bound to happen. I don't know if they will be able to attract a great manager when you look at where they are 

Russell Martin's problem is that he's been tasked with playing "good football" by the Southampton owners which people only accept nowadays as possession-based, high pressing, playing from the back, etc. He has largely done this, Southampton rate very well for possession of the ball for a team sitting dead last with one win.

They do have poor players but you can tweak your tactics and personnel for your opposition whilst sticking to your core beliefs of trying to knock the ball about and play it out on the floor while pressing the opposition all over the pitch. Russell Martin has failed to do this. He obviously did well to gain promotion with them from the Championship last season but you can't just carry on playing the same way when you're going to have the second best set of players for 90% of fixtures the season after. They don't have great players for this level but some of the performances they've put in, such as going down 5-0 by half-time to a Tottenham team who are very dangerous on their day, but were also sitting 13th before kick-off, is just naive.

Sacking him won't keep them up and he might well have brought them straight back up from the Championship based on how they did last season, but if you have a manager who will never adapt when he has inferior players then you're never going to do any better than playing ping-pong between the divisions.

Look at Fulham and Brentford who have come up and stayed up. Both have managers with certain principles (not necessarily the same as Russell Martin's) but also know how to be pragmatic and get a few results instead of stubbornly sticking to one approach every match and wondering why they keep losing heavily to teams with better players.

[Gunnersaurus]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

You never seem to agree with any sacking

'Not too sure how much of it is really his fault' - sorry but had you seen them play and commit the same mistakes over and over and over again, primarily down to how he is setting them up to play. They're being asked to play out from the back every single game and a lot of the goals conceded are down to this philosophy. 

They're down there perhaps partly because of their squad but almost definitely because Martin isn't that good a manager for them.

I actually said I didn't know of he should of been sacked.  You even quoted that. I never said I disagreed with him being sacked.

But no I don't think managers should be sacked so fast and most managers agree with me and have said that it takes time to get a team to play the way you want and that a lot of the time half a season isn't enough. Just because its the way it's done doesn't mean it's for the best. A lot of the time manager changes are quick fixes. It takes longer than that to build a club. 

[Dave]

7 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

 

I remember when we sacked Benitez that it came down to Pereira or Lampard and we were dead set against him. I can't remember why

He was the favourite until he appeared on Sky Sports News.

Even Greek fans feel Vitor is unstable, and they've seen owners walk on to the pitch with a glock.

[RandoEFC+]

43 minutes ago, Dave said:

He was the favourite until he appeared on Sky Sports News.

Even Greek fans feel Vitor is unstable, and they've seen owners walk on to the pitch with a glock.

Yeah I remember that Moshiri had pretty much made his mind up and then caved into fan pressure and opted for Lampard instead. Lampard didn't turn out great but I think it was the right call at the time out of the two.

I think Pereira was very much tied in with the Kia Jooranchian phase Moshiri went through when he was basically allowing the super agent to act as our director of football. Crazy times.

[Rick]

That Wolves appointment has disaster written all over it. Why not go for Moyes for some stability? 

[Stan]

55 minutes ago, Rick said:

That Wolves appointment has disaster written all over it. Why not go for Moyes for some stability? 

For all we know he might have steered well clear of it

 

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Rick said:

That Wolves appointment has disaster written all over it. Why not go for Moyes for some stability? 

I saw a "rumour" that Moyes was holding out for Everton when the new owners get rid of Dyche but I don't think I buy it.

[Dan+]

On 15/12/2024 at 12:01, RandoEFC said:

The fact that Ait Nouri got sent off after the final whistle yesterday and Cunha could face retrospective action for this little incident isn't a great immediate future for them though...

 

 

Ait-Nouri out and Cunha possibly out for them, while we're potentially going to play Ward. Two sides who can score and two sies who let in 2+ a game. Both absolutely awful at the back. Leicester v Wolves could be one of the funniest games to ever take place in the Premier League. Could be completely bizarre stuff - like an MLS game almost.

[Dan+]

21 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Dyche and Howe are now the only 2 English managers left in the Premier League. Neither of them are exactly nailed on to see the season out with their clubs either, with Everton changing owners this month and Newcastle not really kicking on from mid-table.

If one or both of those clubs pulled the plug, you could see either of them trying to convince Graham Potter to come in but if he doesn't, there's every chance you could see a Premier League without a single English manager in the not-so-distant future.

Potter won't take it as it's clear he's waiting for Barcelona 2012 or something to come up.

[Dan+]

I've no sympathy for Martin. Massively put himself above his club and players attempting to emulate the nonsense Kompany situation. Put his own reputation above results and would frequently dig players out publicly for it. He's a clown. I've no time for him.