Everton Discussion

[RandoEFC+]

3 minutes ago, LFCMike said:

That Esk fella has been saying the same thing. Evertonians shot him down when he was criticising Morshiri years ago

I've known the esk guy to be very well informed on some occasions but also not on others. Very intelligent and clued up on the financial side of things but also has his agendas.

These articles are always full of ifs, buts and maybes. Until it reaches David Ornstein, Paul Joyce, "The Bobble", Fabrizio etc, it should all be taken with a pinch of salt. 

[LFCMike]

11 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I've known the esk guy to be very well informed on some occasions but also not on others. Very intelligent and clued up on the financial side of things but also has his agendas.

These articles are always full of ifs, buts and maybes. Until it reaches David Ornstein, Paul Joyce, "The Bobble", Fabrizio etc, it should all be taken with a pinch of salt. 

The article I read from him the other day makes sense though. If the 777 takeover isn't approved then where's the money coming from?

[RandoEFC+]

40 minutes ago, LFCMike said:

The article I read from him the other day makes sense though. If the 777 takeover isn't approved then where's the money coming from?

I don't know what the situation is so I won't pretend to. There's not much point trying to understand money in football nowadays because it's all a web of dodgy hedge funds, dodgy agent payments, dodgy sponsorship deals and business contacts doing each other dodgy favours behind closed doors.

At the moment, none or very few of the people who tend to have their finger on the pulse seem to be worried so I'm not worried for now. If the 777 deal falls through, there's also plenty of murmurs that there are other potential buyers waiting in the wings to snap up a Premier League club at a "bargain" price because Moshiri is desperate to get out. 

Whatever happens happens. If Everton are headed for administration and end up a phoenix club in division 32 then worrying about it and reading into every article that prophesies the potential for further doom and despair isn't going to stop it.

[LFCMike]

12 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

I don't know what the situation is so I won't pretend to. There's not much point trying to understand money in football nowadays because it's all a web of dodgy hedge funds, dodgy agent payments, dodgy sponsorship deals and business contacts doing each other dodgy favours behind closed doors.

At the moment, none or very few of the people who tend to have their finger on the pulse seem to be worried so I'm not worried for now. If the 777 deal falls through, there's also plenty of murmurs that there are other potential buyers waiting in the wings to snap up a Premier League club at a "bargain" price because Moshiri is desperate to get out. 

Whatever happens happens. If Everton are headed for administration and end up a phoenix club in division 32 then worrying about it and reading into every article that prophesies the potential for further doom and despair isn't going to stop it.

Yeah I agree it probably won't come to that, someone else will probably see an opportunity to invest in a Premier League club like FSG did with Liverpool when we were heading for administration. I think Everton are in a much worse situation than we were back then though so who knows

[OrangeKhrush]

football sources are generally bad, which is why I asked if it had any truth from ground level.

The only credible football sources give info when it's public knowledge and I haven't seen anything if call dependable on that subject.

it makes no sense for the FA to defuct points had they also have known that Everton were going to enter administration

[RandoEFC+]

Everton had to walk away from a £220m sponsorship deal for the new stadium because of Usmanov's links to Putin and then ended up getting docked 10 points when we were £20m over the limit of overspend and the lost sponsorship deal wasn't accepted as mitigation.

I wonder why our fans think there are two different sets of rules for two different sets of clubs... 

[Dave]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

Everton had to walk away from a £220m sponsorship deal for the new stadium because of Usmanov's links to Putin and then ended up getting docked 10 points when we were £20m over the limit of overspend and the lost sponsorship deal wasn't accepted as mitigation.

I wonder why our fans think there are two different sets of rules for two different sets of clubs... 

Reading more in to this, whilst i think you have been harshly treated, im not sure you can link the two together.

It's not a crime to be Russian but it is sanctionable to have links to Putin.

[Dr. Gonzo]

DCL red card overturned. Correct decision I think.

[Dave]

 

 

 

 

[RandoEFC+]

I'm sorry but if the penalty is 10 points for a breach of £20m then surely you should at least then not be done for the same time period again, and even more surely, you shouldn't be hit for the two breaches from two different time periods in the same season.

[RandoEFC+]

I don't want to be writing more essays on this but Everton's net transfer spend over the last 4 years (not chosen randomly like some fans like to do to suit their argument, but because that's the timeframe for which we've been sanctioned) is the 18th highest in the league, only more than Brighton and Luton. Unlike our reckless squad building of 6-7 years ago, the first team is actually full of young-ish players with good resale value (Branthwaite, Garner, Onana, arguably McNeil, arguably Mykolenko) and those that don't fall into that category were either brought in for next to nothing or on loan (Young, Danjuma, Tarkowski, Harrison, Calvert-Lewin) or have given us many years of service to repay their large fees (Pickford, Doucoure).

The wage budget isn't quite as pretty. We're paying about £80m a year in wages which puts us near the middle of the league. You could argue that we should be paying more like £60m a year in wages for where our team is performing. (You could also argue that this squad has scored the 12th most points this season before deductions and that it's therefore not unreasonable to have the 10th highest wage budget but I'll be harsh on us to prove my point.) That puts us a bit above Wolves and Bournemouth and bit below Fulham and Palace. However, if you increase our net spend over the last 4 years by £80m to include the impact of an approximate £20m per season overspend on wages for four seasons, that takes us to the same sort of region as Crystal Palace and a bit ahead of the likes of Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves, still nowhere near the top half of what any team has spent over the past four seasons. You should also account for the fact that Everton have successfully reduced their wage bill year on year since Kevin Thelwell became Director of Football and Moshiri stopped interfering.

Why am I bothering with all of these numbers? Well firstly it's to debunk any talk that Everton have continued to spend recklessly. We've spent a similar amount to the rest of the teams in the bottom half over the past 4 years on our footballing operation, so what major difference is there between Everton and the likes of Wolves, Crystal Palace and Fulham? Well Everton are building a stadium of course and paying for it all themselves.

The bottom line here, if Everton weren't building a new stadium in order to become more profitable in the long run, they wouldn't be anywhere near breaching the profit and sustainability rules. You couldn't really think of a better and more necessary way to spend money in order to be sustainable and profitable long-term. The problem with the three-year cycle for us is that it takes more than three years to build a stadium. We're doing all of the investing in that project now and seeing none of the benefits during the same time period. Surely, there has to be some mitigation here. If the actual aim of the financial rules is to encourage clubs to think long-term and think about sustainability then you have to allow them to invest in long-term projects exactly like this without holding it against them. The club couldn't have done more to cut back on their footballing operation over the past 4 years.

Everton admitted a breach the first time around. If the Premier League had been sensible and said alright, you're currently investing in something that's going to pay you back down the line but you've still breached the rules and we can't let it go, we'll hit you with a transfer ban or even a modest points penalty of say 4 points, then I really don't think Everton or the fans would have kicked up that much of a fuss. 10 points was already a harsh, harsh penalty and now we're facing the potential prospect of being punished a second time for 2 of the same 3 years, and potentially being punished for two different time periods in the same season because our case has been fast-tracked.

As for the size of the original penalty, and an unknown further penalty, nobody knows what number the Premier League will find this time when they reach into thin air to pluck one out (because make no mistake, that's literally what they did last time). I know hindsight is 20-20 but it beggars belief that when these rules were set up in 2013, there wasn't a clear sanctions policy set up to go with it. The Premier League have left themselves in a position where they're making it up as they go along and turned the league for the foreseeable future into a farce where relegation battles, European qualification and possibly even league titles could now end up decided in courtrooms. Everton have a 10 point deduction already subject to appeal, and could end up with another points penalty which would then likely be appealed as well. If Everton and Forest both get another points deduction then it affects all the clubs around the relegation zone. What if Luton and Burnley start playing for draws here and there because that's enough to get them on track for safety and then Everton and/or Forest get some of their points back on appeal? It's a circus.

This whole system needs a massive rethink. The sanctions policy needs putting on the table and sorting out as soon as possible and they need to start thinking about live accounting for the implementation of these sanctions because this process of submitting the accounts once a year and then letting accountants and lawyers fight it out for months after is ridiculous.

I think that's pretty much all I have to say on the matter. We'll see what happens this time around but I'm going to try my best to control myself in writing paragraphs and paragraphs more about this because I'm frankly totally bored of it. It also goes without saying that as much as the Premier League have totally botched the implementation of these rules and sanctions, our football club has been run extremely poorly under Moshiri which has put us in this position in the first place. He has been an absolute cancer on our club and so was Bill Kenwright for giving him the keys to the kingdom. Everton fans are under no illusions that the club is by no means innocent in this. However, the point remains that Everton would comfortably be compliant by now if they weren't spending so much money on building a new stadium for their long-term profitability. If the Premier League's answer to that is to dish out heavy-handed points penalties and very possibly relegate us, inflicting even more financial hardship on a club that has done nothing but cut back on their spending and sell their best players over the time period in question, then I don't see how they can claim to be advocating for financial stability at all. It also sends out a very firm message to the rest of the league that unless you're already rich enough to do so, you shouldn't bother trying to invest in anything like stadiums or training facilities or youth academies that aren't going to yield you immediate benefits in the next three years because as far as FFP is concerned, that's wasted money.

[RandoEFC+]

Two more things that have come out tonight that I wasn't aware of.

1) When Everton started building their stadium, the rules stated that any interest on stadium payments would not count toward your losses. The rules were changed in 2022, with Everton halfway through building a stadium, so that they now do. Without this rule change, Everton would be compliant.

2) The Premier League are planning to increase the threshold for sanctions from £105m to £218m in August 2024. They're admitting that the threshold needs loosening and Everton would be nowhere near that threshold. Yes we need to be judged against the rules that were in place in the time period in question but if the Premier League have realised their rules need changing then you'd like to think they'd at least be somewhat restrained in what they'll dish out to clubs under the old rules. That's not the approach they took two months ago, we'll see if things are different this time around.

[Reluctant Striker]

No way should Everton be punished any further. Perhaps at most, a token fine & agreement that the stadium situation & changes of rules has in some way contributed. Anything else starts to look like the club is being pushed out the door.

And the rise to £218m sounds good. Perhaps giving the extra inflation room to play with, that clearly is not there for clubs to attempt to rationally try to improve their standing, toward the higher end of the league.

[OrangeKhrush]

Surely this is double jeopardy, this just smells like corruption.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Holy shit the interest rate 777s loans to Everton has is a 52.5% interest rate.

[LFCMike]

The 3 year cycle thing shouldn't have come as a surprise should it? PL clubs would have voted on that rule when it was introduced

[RandoEFC+]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Holy shit the interest rate 777s loans to Everton has is a 52.5% interest rate.

Where have you read that?

The FFP business is such a mess that people have forgotten. Even if Everton manage to survive this season by winning appeals, court battles, or scraping enough points together to stay out of the bottom three in spite of a points deduction(s?), we've got this takeover hanging over our head.

777 loaned Everton money to help with the running costs to keep the club afloat, apparently. We all assumed that this gets written off at a future date if they take over the club but suppose they don't pass the fit and proper owners test, that's another party we owe money to, hopefully not at the interest you're quoting but it wouldn't surprise me if that was right. And then the scenario where they do take over? I've been seeing articles almost every day about them and other clubs they're involved with being taken to court. They might fulfil their promise to clear Everton's debt and get us financially stable which is supposed to be the positive side of what they offer but aside from that, they sound like the worst owners you could ever hope to find.

It's just never-ending. I can't see how even Liverpool fans or some of the Newcastle fans that are weirdly obsessed with us can laugh at this anymore. Everton fans have been put through decades of decline under Bill Kenwright, followed by Farhad Moshiri ruining the club, followed by this FFP saga, followed by these 777 cowboys taking over the club and then fuck knows what happening next. It's one thing being shite but Everton fans don't even know if the club will even still exist in 5 years' time and I'm sorry but it's just not a laughing matter or a case of "banter". It could happen to any club and indeed has happened to Bury, for example, and look at Reading right now for fuck's sake.

There's a fair amount of ups and downs you should expect to be able to face as a football fan. Losing cup finals, losing derby matches, even getting relegated, all things you can expect to have to take on the chin and put up with your mates taking the piss out of you for at work on Monday. Nowadays, we spend less than 10% of the time talking about any of that. It's all about the standard of officiating, VAR, financial regulations, state ownership, lawyers and accountants, appeals that could end up changing the league table after the season has finished. Even the clubs who are well run, purely out of the luck of the draw of getting owners who don't turn out to be absolute lunatics, have to put up with the VAR circus and not knowing whether they've been relegated or got into Europe or not because the teams around them have points deductions and appeals hanging over their heads. When I was at school I used to argue with my Liverpool supporting mates which Everton players would get into Liverpool's team. Now when I see them they're like "what's actually going on with Everton then" and I'm sat there talking about interest on loans and the inflation of stadium construction costs.

What a load of fucking shite it's become. Is it too much to ask for football fans to just be able to watch and enjoy the sport safe in the knowledge that regardless of whether their club is brilliant or terrible, at least it's still going to be there next Saturday for them to go and see all their mates at the game, or watch on TV?

6 minutes ago, LFCMike said:

The 3 year cycle thing shouldn't have come as a surprise should it? PL clubs would have voted on that rule when it was introduced

I can't make head or tail of it mate. Last time I thought it was a three-year cycle, now it seems that this one includes those three years and an additional year. Not sure why but apparently something to do with Covid? Every time you think you've got your head around this business there's another aspect to it where you need a degree in accounting to understand.

Everton's central issue with it is the double jeopardy. The EFL, for example, have a system where if you get sanctioned for a three/four-year period, then any of the losses you made in that period of time are considered to be "dealt with" and are ignored in all future calculations. The Premier League doesn't have this written into their rules and this goes back to the issue that the Premier League just doesn't have a sanctions policy whatsoever apart from referring clubs to the "independent commission" who essentially have the power to just choose whatever punishment they want. But back to the double jeopardy aspect - for me, surely you either get hit with a big penalty (e.g. 10 points) and then you get a fresh start, or you can have a rolling penalty such as 4 points every year until you get your finances back within the limit.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Where have you read that?

I actually think I misread this article: https://josimarfootball.com/2024/01/15/endgame/ - 777 subsidiaries are taking out these 52.5% interest rate loans. It's arguably worse than what I initially thought when I read it incorrectly though.

The article paints a bleak picture for 777's financial condition. I don't see how they can be considered "fit and proper" when Bermuda's got administrative control. I think Moshiri's got to go back and set a more realistic price for Everton - otherwise I assume the league will push this deal through in a couple of weeks and it won't be too long before we're seeing more articles about Everton in dire financial straights.

[RandoEFC+]

Just now, Dr. Gonzo said:

I actually think I misread this article: https://josimarfootball.com/2024/01/15/endgame/ - 777 subsidiaries are taking out these 52.5% interest rate loans. It's arguably worse than what I initially thought when I read it incorrectly though.

The article paints a bleak picture for 777's financial condition. I don't see how they can be considered "fit and proper" when Bermuda's got administrative control. I think Moshiri's got to go back and set a more realistic price for Everton - otherwise I assume the league will push this deal through in a couple of weeks and it won't be too long before we're seeing more articles about Everton in dire financial straights.

777 sound horrendous in general. Seen enough articles about them on Twitter recently not to need to read into it any further really.

Problem is if that deal falls through then it still leaves us with a ghost owner in Moshiri who isn't interested anymore. There were other parties interested but not at the price Moshiri agreed with 777. Some remain interested apparently if the 777 deal falls through and Moshiri no longer has a better financial offer on the table because getting as much money for the sale is all he's interested in now. Doesn't give a monkeys about what sort of owner we get saddled with after him.

MSP were nearly there until they found out about some dodgy loan that they would have had to pay back to a dodgy offshore firm run by an old mate of Bill Kenwright's who apparently once got the club out of some financial hole back in the day under the condition that they could veto any future investors or change of ownership or something unless they agreed to pay back this loan (including significant interest presumably). MSP weren't told about this until a long way into negotiations either I don't think.

It's all a right old mess and it's just really hard to see how Everton can ever get through this FFP stuff, the 777 stuff and the further layers of trouble Kenwright and Moshiri have left behind that we probably don't even know about yet and survive, at least in any recognisable form, let alone stay in the top flight. Such a shame too as after years of apathetic incompetence on the pitch and in the dugout there's finally a team and manager out there who the fans can identify with making a bit of a decent fist of it again.

[Stan]

Just seen some of the quotes from Richard Masters. Showing himself up to be the true charlatan he is. Calling Everton a small club is pathetic. He hates that any club outside the top 6 will try and break the glass ceiling. 

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Just seen some of the quotes from Richard Masters. Showing himself up to be the true charlatan he is. Calling Everton a small club is pathetic. He hates that any club outside the top 6 will try and break the glass ceiling. 

He shouldn't be calling anyone a small club in a league he's supposed to be in charge of. If we're being honest, I don't know if the phrase "small clubs" came from one of the committee members first and he just repeated it or he's repeating it because that's what he's seen being said beforehand.

At best, he's an idiot for allowing those words to come out of his mouth. At worst, he does actually see it as there being big clubs and small clubs in the league. The fact he's said that though isn't proof he thinks that.

It's an off hand comment really but yeah what an absolute moron for saying that in front of the cameras when he knows he's already being accused of going after low hanging fruit and not having the balls to deal with Man City, and his league is being accused of facilitating a two tier system because of these rules.

[OrangeKhrush]

master's and the FA want to conveniently change rules now, is this before or after they try relegate Everton and Forest

[Stan]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

He shouldn't be calling anyone a small club in a league he's supposed to be in charge of. If we're being honest, I don't know if the phrase "small clubs" came from one of the committee members first and he just repeated it or he's repeating it because that's what he's seen being said beforehand.

At best, he's an idiot for allowing those words to come out of his mouth. At worst, he does actually see it as there being big clubs and small clubs in the league. The fact he's said that though isn't proof he thinks that.

It's an off hand comment really but yeah what an absolute moron for saying that in front of the cameras when he knows he's already being accused of going after low hanging fruit and not having the balls to deal with Man City, and his league is being accused of facilitating a two tier system because of these rules.

The guy asking the question mentioned 'really big clubs' (quite clearly alluding to Man City and Chelsea with their spending). Then Masters took it upon himself to mention 'small club'. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

Just seen some of the quotes from Richard Masters. Showing himself up to be the true charlatan he is. Calling Everton a small club is pathetic. He hates that any club outside the top 6 will try and break the glass ceiling. 

I think calling Forest and Everton small clubs is absolutely stupid. Shows very little knowledge of the football of English football really - does he really think his breakaway league re-invented the fucking game in 1992?

Tbf I'm not sure that he hates any club outside the top 6 will try to break the glass ceiling. There was a time it was just called the big 4 and now one of the leagues most hyped commodities that they try to sell abroad is one of those clubs that did break the glass ceiling... and did so emphatically in that they've changed the face of modern football in the process.

And to me it seems like he is very much trying to protect that club that did break the glass ceiling - probably because going down hard on them in his eyes would be a source of shame for the league.

I've got to be honest though, I've got a lot more sympathy with Everton - and I fucking hate Everton - than I do with Forest. I think Forest invited the scrutiny from the league - and I think it's more likely that other clubs got fucked by what Forest did in breaching the rules.

Everton actually tried to fix their problem and ended up with the hammer coming down on them. It's just stupid.

[Dave]