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Just announced by Theresa May. Interesting times ahead!

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Could this have something to do with the rumour she has some sort of health issue?

Only a couple of months ago she practically swore there wouldn't be a general election and ruled it out completely. 

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I have seen plenty of those health rumours too (she's a Type 1 diabetic I think) and was half expecting a resignation on health grounds, but there you go.

It's an interesting one. The polls show the gap between Tories and Labour getting wider and wider, but in terms of a General Election there's very few realistic seat gains left, and the Lib Dems are bouncing back by the week which jeopardises a lot of the gains they made in the West Country and some other areas. It's a very brave shout.

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10 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

Could this have something to do with the rumour she has some sort of health issue?

Only a couple of months ago she practically swore there wouldn't be a general election and ruled it out completely. 

 

3 minutes ago, tlr said:

I have seen plenty of those health rumours too (she's a Type 1 diabetic I think) and was half expecting a resignation on health grounds, but there you go.

It's an interesting one. The polls show the gap between Tories and Labour getting wider and wider, but in terms of a General Election there's very few realistic seat gains left, and the Lib Dems are bouncing back by the week which jeopardises a lot of the gains they made in the West Country and some other areas. It's a very brave shout.

There's a formal complaint being lodged by Downing Street with the press over this.

Long term this is a good thing as much as dislike what Labour have become since Blair we need a functioning opposition, Corbyn would have ambled on till 2020 and we'd have essentially a one party state. Corbyn will be gone by June and come 2022 we may have a credible opposition to go to the polls with.

She's done it to guarantee herself 5 years, because Labour are such a mess and probably to ease her process of getting various Brexit bills through, a bit of a gamble but a pro Brexit mandate will kill her opposition and help her make the changes she feels she needs. I'll be voting Tory there's no alternative at present at all, the jury is still very much out on her and I have my doubts about the Brexit she will deliver, she's the only fucker i'd even remotely trust to pursue it.

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3 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

Fuck me. Tasty.

I'll be voting for Jez as it stands right now.

xD I knew you would but would you regret it if he actually won?

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Remember that time when the PM said an independence referendum 2 years from now, once negotiations were concluded, would be too divisive and distracting?  And said she'd definitely not call an election this year?

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19 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

xD I knew you would but would you regret it if he actually won?

I'll disagree with him in many areas including his delivery style but I'll disagree with the Tories a lot more.

Plus you have to factor in that we don't actually vote for the leader in this country, my local MP is your typical Tory boy scum bag who consistently votes to destroy the lives of disabled people and the poor, constantly votes to try and privatise the NHS, cut taxes for the rich and votes against improving democracy. I'm not going to side with that man, he's not getting my approval. In 7 years he's done nothing good but vote for gay marriage.

Since where I live is rampant remain territory I think he could lose to the lib dems.

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I live in a seat that voted 50-something% for the SNP and 30-something% for Labour so sadly I can't really do any harm to the Tories with my vote.

I'll chose between Labour the Nats when I can evaluate if Labour are getting their shit together st all. 

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9 minutes ago, SirBalon said:

Green Party for me as always. 

xD I can see how you've come to that conclusion. 

 

44 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

I'll disagree with him in many areas including his delivery style but I'll disagree with the Tories a lot more.

Plus you have to factor in that we don't actually vote for the leader in this country, my local MP is your typical Tory boy scum bag who consistently votes to destroy the lives of disabled people and the poor, constantly votes to try and privatise the NHS, cut taxes for the rich and votes against improving democracy. I'm not going to side with that man, he's not getting my approval. In 7 years he's done nothing good but vote for gay marriage.

Since where I live is rampant remain territory I think he could lose to the lib dems.

Mine is Richard Burden a scouse anti Semite twat who's done fuck all for 20 odd years, despite having the constituency which at the last census was the whitest part of brum (95+%) he spends most of his time cosying up to the Islamic vote in other constituencies, he never talks about Rover and the lack of real jobs since it went, instead it's fucking always Palestine. He's a complete cunt who also knifed comrade Corbyn not to long ago.

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Haha, so many great politicians out there :ph34r:

At best Labour could form a coalition government if they can successfully defend the seats that they could lose to the conservatives. It doesn't matter about the city centres they will lose to the lib dems, conservatives should lose enough seats to lib dems to lose their majority, they need to defeat labour to achieve that Erdogan rule Chairman May is after.

 

Imagine this outside chance.... In 3 months time Jez could be Prime Minister and France could be a communist country :ph34r: 

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I just don't see Lib Dem's doing great in Labour heartlands which will be pro Brexit. However,  I do think May may pick up the odd Labour seat, as I said round here is Labour safe and everyone who votes that way tends to be a bit less informed about politics and think Corbyn is a limp wristed communist based almost entirely off a sun headline."He hates the Queen" "he likes the terrorists" etc etc, personally it's his complete inability to control or manage other human beings that's my great electoral bone of contention. Most white working class voters from my experience in what i would class as Labour heartlands tend to be "fuck benefit scroungers and foreigners", but hate Tories because Thatcher stopped free milk so vote Labour out of habit/ ignorance. It's why center ground Blairtes have a chance, actual lefties like comrade Corbys are fucked.

I think that little rat Tim Farron who most of the electorate will be saying "who?" who will gain some out of this, the inevitable protest at Labour and the generation reared on Tory hate might push them back up the chain but still a definite third.

Scotland will be interesting, Jimmy Crankie will use her the continued success of the SNP to vindicate her calls for another referendum completely oblivious to the fact it's half a protest to labour about labour.

Greens, yeah fuck the Greens.

Tory will be as is,  just with the new addition of "we're the Brexit party" it will be interesting to see some of her pledges though. 

Plaid Cymru just fuck off as relevant as Cornish independence, same goes for Northern Ireland really.

UKIP are dead

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Voter turnout is piss poor since Tony Blair arrived on the scene and centralised the game. You've got areas where 40%+ of people cannot be arsed in a general election. One day someone will come along and win those missing voters.

It wont be Jez because he wears sandals and gives terrible speeches. It could be someone with ideas akin to Jez though.

 

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5 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

Voter turnout is piss poor since Tony Blair arrived on the scene. You've got areas where 40%+ of people cannot be arsed in a general election. One day someone will come along and win those missing voters.

It wont be Jez because he wears sandals and gives terrible speeches. It could be someone with ideas akin to Jez though.

 

Voter turnout in all elections around the world is poor. I'll be voting for the first time. I turn eighteen the day before. I'm genuinely amazed.

Listening to May's speech about the Tories wanting a stronger and more secure future is bollocks. I hope you're not voting for them. I'm sure a man like yourself is better than mingling with the sort.

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Just now, Cure said:

Voter turnout in all elections around the world is poor. I'll be voting for the first time. I turn eighteen the day before. I'm genuinely amazed.

Listening to May's speech about the Tories wanting a stronger and more secure future is bollocks. I hope you're not voting for them. I'm sure a man like yourself is better than mingling with scum.

lol yes, check my earlier posts in this thread.

Voter turnout used to be very high. In my opinion political show business is losing out to new forms of cheap and ready entertainment. The lights are going out on politics.

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Just now, HoneyNUFC said:

lol yes, check my earlier posts in this thread.

Voter turnout used to be very high. In my opinion political show business is losing out to new forms of cheap and ready entertainment. The lights are going out on politics.

I guess you'll be voting the same way in the local elections? Given you're from the North I'd hope you're in a Labour or Lib Dem seat. Unfortunately when Cameron came in we were painted blue. Our local MP is an arsehole. I don't care if this is ever seen by the twat cat. I've asked him questions before and he simply avoids them and starts talking about development work in the area. He's arrogant. The only time you see him is on the front of the paper for commissioning a traffic light. He was constantly sucking Cameron off when he was in power and didn't oppose him. Eventually rewarded with a high position. Regardless of his political allegiance I still dislike him. I truly hope he doesn't see another term as we need change around here.

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14 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

lol yes, check my earlier posts in this thread.

Voter turnout used to be very high. In my opinion political show business is losing out to new forms of cheap and ready entertainment. The lights are going out on politics.

Is there a correlation (with statistical significance) in FPTP systems between turnout % and % of difference between the elected mp and the second candidate in number of votes in the constituency?

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7 minutes ago, Cure said:

I guess you'll be voting the same way in the local elections? Given you're from the North I'd hope you're in a Labour or Lib Dem seat. Unfortunately when Cameron came in we were painted blue. Our local MP is an arsehole. I don't care if this is ever seen by the twat cat. I've asked him questions before and he simply avoids them and starts talking about development work in the area. He's arrogant. The only time you see him is on the front of the paper for commissioning a traffic light. He was constantly sucking Cameron off when he was in power and didn't oppose him. Eventually rewarded with a high position. Regardless of his political allegiance I still dislike him. I truly hope he doesn't see another term as we need change around here.

I'm from a traditional Labour safe seat on Tyneside but I am currently an economic migrant in a Tory safe seat in London.

Voted for the Animal Welfare Party in the London Mayoral elections. Sadiq Khan is about as left wing as his great uncle Genghis.

 

1 minute ago, Kowabunga said:

Is there a correlation in FPTP systems between turnout % and % of difference between the elected mp and the second candidate in number of votes in the constituency?

Not sure. Voter turnout in my home town in 2015 was the same as where I live now, back home the Labour candidate won with 48.2% of the vote, here in London where I am now the Conservative candidate won with 62.2%

If that helps at all?

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10 minutes ago, Kowabunga said:

Is there a correlation (with statistical significance) in FPTP systems between turnout % and % of difference between the elected mp and the second candidate in number of votes in the constituency?

There's not. In FPTP it's just a case of the first to a majority past half of the turnout wins. In some seats the results have been really close between the eventual winner and the runner-up. The constituency of Gower was really close in the last election with the Tories only just winning with 15,862 votes (37.1% share) against 15,835 votes (37% share) for Labour. So there's no real correlation.

Which electoral system do you have in Spain?

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Some casualties coming in already.

Remainer Alan Johnson has stood down in labour safe seat and Brexit voting constituency in Hull.

Some returns also starting as Vince Cable wants his Twickenham seat he lost back!

Freedom hater Theresa May has ruled out tv debates. She doesn't want to risk her ratings. Bottler.

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16 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

Jeremy Corbyn Member of Parliament for Las Malvinas 

:ph34r:

 

A man with a good heart. :D

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Weren't the Labour Party gearing up to change their rules so the could get rid of Corbyn anyway? Smart move from May grab a majority now while the opponent is weak. If she had to fight an election in 3 years time after she'd no doubt given the EU something it's not a vote grabber

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The UK has been shit since the economic bubble of the 90s, come now.

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3 hours ago, HoneyNUFC said:

I'm from a traditional Labour safe seat on Tyneside but I am currently an economic migrant in a Tory safe seat in London.

Voted for the Animal Welfare Party in the London Mayoral elections. Sadiq Khan is about as left wing as his great uncle Genghis.

 

Not sure. Voter turnout in my home town in 2015 was the same as where I live now, back home the Labour candidate won with 48.2% of the vote, here in London where I am now the Conservative candidate won with 62.2%

If that helps at all?

It is a limited sample and with one more degree of freedom than expected. :) I meant more in the lines of the analysis of the residuals of the turnout % for a specific  constituency relative to the average national turnout in that particular election vs the difference between the first and the second candidate in the constituency in those elections (the polling ensemble would be better, but actual results are a decent proxy).

I wonder if the mechanism of causality that follows: "in constituencies where the candidate is expected to sweep the ballots, why you would care to vote, in constrast to being motivated to vote in a constituency where the result is uncertain" could be reflected in turnout data.

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1 hour ago, Spike said:

The UK has been shit since the economic bubble of the 90s, come now.

If In relation to my hat post, it's a joke not a serious point.

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