French Election; Macron Defeats Le Pen

[Fairy In Boots]

Needs a thread.

Round 1 I think will be Le Pen

She'll get fucked on the back 9 by the other parties if you pardon my French 

 

[Vegan Kel]

Can't see why any French person would vote for anyone else. Would be suicide

[Harry]

Some reasons against Le Pen are suggested here: 

 

[Fairy In Boots]

I'd imagine it's a bit like UKIP, she's trying to water it down to broaden her parties appeal but her mp's or whatever the French call them will be full of racist nutters. 

Although Macron, Fillion and the communist guy who's name escapes me all seem equally shite candidates. Le Pen and the Commie are pro Brexit though so it's interesting to see how France vote for anti EU parties

[Kowabunga]

3 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

I'd imagine it's a bit like UKIP, she's trying to water it down to broaden her parties appeal but her mp's or whatever the French call them will be full of racist nutters. 

Although Macron, Fillion and the communist guy who's name escapes me all seem equally shite candidates. Le Pen and the Commie are pro Brexit though so it's interesting to see how France vote for anti EU parties

Fillon, Macron, Hamon and Melénchon (who is not a "commie" either) are not remotely "equally shite candidates". Not even is your only concern when voting is the civilizational angst.

After this piss poor presentation you still denounce that people says FN (the party) has far right ethno-nationalists under their wings, which obliterates history, reality and the entire body of academia.

This really is Broken Britain.

[Honey Honey]

Melanchon has said he wants a 100% tax on income over €400k  

Imagine if it's a choice between him and Le Pen15. 

[Harry]

That would be a pretty scary outcome. 

538 did an analysis of the possible outcomes factoring in current polls and typical historical uncertainty levels.... Its possible the final runoff will be between the two most extreme options. 

[Mazzari]

It'll be Macron vs Le Pen or Melenchon. Macron will win because he's centrist and non-abrasive.

[Fairy In Boots]

On 22/04/2017 at 10:12 AM, Kowabunga said:

Fillon, Macron, Hamon and Melénchon (who is not a "commie" either) are not remotely "equally shite candidates". Not even is your only concern when voting is the civilizational angst.

After this piss poor presentation you still denounce that people says FN (the party) has far right ethno-nationalists under their wings, which obliterates history, reality and the entire body of academia.

This really is Broken Britain.

You're going to have to explain the bit in bold. Are you saying, I'm not saying Front National has right wing ethnio-nationalists? Because I was saying that it will. 

Also Melenchon is the closest thing to a commie out the four. 

2 hours ago, Mazzari said:

It'll be Macron vs Le Pen or Melenchon. Macron will win because he's centrist and non-abrasive.

I saw a betting odds today which said she was 81% guaranteed to be in round 2 more than any other candidate, the clear favourite to win this round

[Mazzari]

9 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

I saw a betting odds today which said she was 81% guaranteed to be in round 2 more than any other candidate, the clear favourite to win this round

I wouldn't doubt it. She just can't whip up extra support. Will be like 2002 again. 

[Fairy In Boots]

27 minutes ago, Mazzari said:

I wouldn't doubt it. She just can't whip up extra support. Will be like 2002 again. 

Yeah she needs to get 50% today otherwise it's her done 

[Kowabunga]

She will lose in the second round. I think we will probably be witnesses to some internal strifes in the FN coming up to the run-off (and afterwards), which Ms. Marine would need to handle to keep her party in one piece.

Legislative elections should put the final nail on the coffin of the Parti Socialiste. Aside from that it's going to be a strange co-habitation for a time, either way. What is going to do the Macron platform, the so-called "En Marche", in order to present a viable set of candidates?

[Kowabunga]

2 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Yeah she needs to get 50% today otherwise it's her done 

This isn't going to be 2002 all over again, the election in which her father added less than 1% of relative support to his cause in the run-off. Marine Le Pen will add a substantial amount of votes to her candidature (probably amounting for circa 15% of relative support) in the second round, but it will not be enough, though.

[Fairy In Boots]

7 minutes ago, Kowabunga said:

This isn't going to be 2002 all over again, the election in which her father added less than 1% of relative support to his cause in the run-off. Marine Le Pen will add a substantial amount of votes to her candidature (probably circa 15%) in the second round, but it will not be enough, though.

I don't know enough about French politics to make accurate predictions about round two other than the basics in which the other three main candidates voters will logically vote for the remaining of the three because they're closer in policy than they are to the politics of Le Pen. That's how i understand it anyway.

For what it's worth with approximately 50% counted:

France's interior ministry says with 20 million votes counted, Marine Le Pen has 24.38%, ahead of Emmanuel Macron on 22.19%. François Fillon has 19.63% and Jean-Luc Mélechon 18.09%. That would represent about half the vote, but will not include the main cities. 

[Jay]

Macron vs Le Pen in round 2.  Most of the other candidates and parties have now come out in support of Macron, no matter what side of the political spectrum they are on.  Both Macron and Le Pen have given speeches ahead of campaigning for the second round.

Mélenchon had seen his popularity soar recently after the televised debates but not enough to reach round two.

Fillon looked a bit upset as he spoke on the platform after the initial results came out.  He's thrown himself behind Macron for round two.

[God is Haaland]

On 22.4.2017 at 0:38 PM, HoneyNUFC said:

Melanchon has said he wants a 100% tax on income over €400k  

Imagine if it's a choice between him and Le Pen15. 

Imagine not everybody receives half a million a year for shilling honey monster sugar puffs on a football forum.

[Harry]

Never say never.

Guccifer 2.0 hasn't  stepped in yet. 

 

[Kowabunga]

1 hour ago, Fairy In Boots said:

I don't know enough about French politics to make accurate predictions about round two other than the basics in which the other three main candidates voters will logically vote for the remaining of the three because they're closer in policy than they are to the politics of Le Pen. That's how i understand it anyway.

For what it's worth with approximately 50% counted:

France's interior ministry says with 20 million votes counted, Marine Le Pen has 24.38%, ahead of Emmanuel Macron on 22.19%. François Fillon has 19.63% and Jean-Luc Mélechon 18.09%. That would represent about half the vote, but will not include the main cities. 

You've got a candidate of a platform moulded after UKIP (Dupont-Aignan) with circa 5%. You've got a sizeable chunk of Fillon voters and a limited chunk of Melénchon voters (the last two are in the air, but sucessfully co-opting both sides is going to be tricky barring a major Macron fuck-up). You add abstention (from the left, because make no mistake: a right wing shift has happened) and those are the numbers that pop up.

[Honey Honey]

39 minutes ago, True Bender said:

Imagine not everybody receives half a million a year for shilling honey monster sugar puffs on a football forum.

You think it's a good idea? I think it will make poor people poorer and is completely economically illiterate. I'm not a fan of the element of the left like Meloncommie who still read 19th century philosophical works instead of actually getting clued up enough to hold some 21st century left wing economic ideas, particularly in monetary reform.

[Kowabunga]

4 minutes ago, HoneyNUFC said:

You think it's a good idea? I think it will make poor people poorer and is completely economically illiterate. I'm not a fan of the element of the left like Meloncommie who still read 19th century philosophical works instead of actually getting clued up enough to hold some 21st century left wing economic ideas, particularly in monetary reform.

No if you have those foreign tax havens (provided by the Crown*) that come in handy.

[Honey Honey]

18 minutes ago, Kowabunga said:

No if you have those foreign tax havens (provided by the Crown*) that come in handy.

Don't think that has any effect. Tax havens aren't really about employee salaries. Those who are in a position to use a tax haven are already there. 

 

[Harry]

Their existing top tax bracket is 75% isn't it?

That would definitely drive a fair bit of tax haven activity. 

Cap salary at 400k tho and even people who don't have the means will get the means. Businesses providing the means will rise up. The coffers will drop hugely. 

 

[Cure]

So BBC News have just pointed out that Emmanuel Macron is married to his former drama teacher at school who is 24 years older than him. He's very much a pro-EU politican and is being backed by the rebuffed major parties against Le Pen. Doesn't surprise me as not many people are going to follow a party so far-right as to underline the Holocaust as a minor detail and who don't guarantee security within the country. The implications of either winning could have some quite profound implications on trade and our relations.

[Panflute]

Let Macron become president so things can escalate even quicker. Maybe some people will open their eyes before someone opens their brains with a kalashnikov.

[Kowabunga]

1 hour ago, Panflute said:

Let Macron become president so things can escalate even quicker. Maybe some people will open their eyes before someone opens their brains with a kalashnikov.

EXCLUSIF : JEAN-MARIE LE PEN APPELLE À VOTER MACRON AU SECOND TOUR

EXCLUSIF : JEAN-MARIE LE PEN APPELLE À VOTER MACRON AU SECOND TOUR

"Ce n’est plus la p’tite fille que j’ai élevée n’est-ce pas ?! Elle est en train de s’adoucir, à mon époque, c’était une polémique par jour, c’était ça le FN, on aimait cracher sur l’histoire et sur les étrangers. Maintenant, c’est différent, elle n’est pas assez raciste à mon goût… Certes, parfois, elle te sort un truc du genre que la France n’est pas responsable de la rafle du Vel’ d’Hiv’ mais la seconde d’après elle redevient gentille, elle fait des selfies avec des arabes et ça je ne peux pas l’accepter. Ce n’est pas que j’aime Macron mais elle a trahi deux fois son papa et la famille c’est important chez les Le Pen, je ne peux pas la laisser continuer à détruire tout ce que j’ai remarquablement construit pendant ces dernières décennies. ·

 

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