The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Inverted]

20 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Lol I’m not anti Jewish 

Having an opinion on whether assassinating Soleimani is a good idea is entirely separate from any consideration of his moral standing as a person. 

Kim Jong-Un is a bad guy, I'd even say Xi Jinping is a pretty bad guy - think it's a good idea to kill either of them? 

[Dr. Gonzo]

9 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

No think this has far more to do with this guy orchestrating attacks on American embassies, he’s responsible for American deaths. How many time do people expect the bear to keep getting poked before it bites? Suleimani has poked the US time and time again now the school yard bully isn’t afraid to chuck his weight around. As much as this demands a response from Iran this also demonstrates to North Korea/ other middle eastern characters/ China and Russia Trump will pull the trigger. 

Soleimani's not some new figure - he's been doing this for decades. The US, UK, and Israel have all had the opportunity to kill him at various times - they've all had restraint. Why? Really think long and hard about why even Israel, who've lost far more Israelis to Hezbollah attacks, would opt for restraint rather than go after this guy. Sun-Tsu once said, "if you're going to surround your enemy, leave them an escape route" - because when you've got someone feeling cornered, they'll react dangerously. I'd argue if Iran aren't cornered now, they're very fucking close to being cornered.

The US-Iran tensions being ratcheted up like this started a few years back with a move from the US that did absolutely nothing for stability in the Middle East and has been consistently stoked by both sides. Both sides keep escalating, but this is an unprecedented move. And it's an option that other world leaders have had the opportunity to act on... but refrained because the risk of blowback from that move is too great.

There's a reason why every world power involved in the Middle East is urging calm from Iran right now, while the orange guy is just saying "DON'T RETALIATE OR WE DO AGAIN" - Iran can't do anything meaningful to hurt the US, but Iran can do a lot to throw the region into even more chaos.

 

Lol I’m not anti Jewish 

Not wanting to go to war with Iran = hating Jews?

In any case, this is bad for any Persian in the world who'd have hoped to see Iran open up to the rest of the world. Because what this ultimately does is tell Iran: get nukes ASAP. Iran only has to look at North Korea to see, a nuclear nation will not be bullied easily.

The reformers in Iran are so badly politically damaged now, some are probably going to be barred from running for office by the Guardians Council. They're seen as the politicians that hurt Iran by sitting to the table to negotiate with the West, while the other side was saying "you can't trust the west, they'll break the deal." Hardliners are vindicated and political support for a nuclear Iran will be at an all time high.

And a nuclear Iran means the Islamic Republic of Iran is here to stay for eternity.

[Dr. Gonzo]

To once again underscore how big of a miscalculation this was... not too long ago you had mass protests of Iranians taking to the streets and denouncing their government.

Today we've got them taking to the streets and denouncing America:

 

I'm sure Pompeo, the fucking warhawk, knew he was spouting off bullshit though. Same as Donald Rumsfeld's "I have no doubt we'll be greeted as liberators." 

[RandoEFC+]

3 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Lol I’m not anti Jewish 

And here was me thinking I'd find this thread full of people trying to point-score against Donald Trump .

I'm not very knowledgeable about the Middle East so I've been reading and listening up on this today before passing comment. It sounds like none of us should be upset about this bloke being removed. It also seems highly likely that the timing of this compared to the election in the US isn't a coincidence. The same could easily be said about Bin Laden and Obama. It's cynical but it's also how politics works and how people work.

You just have to hope things don't get too explosive. It sounds like Iran will retaliate by proxy rather than 'taking on' the US which would clearly be suicidal. My major hope apart from that is that our country thinks better of it and stays out of it. Dominic Raab has already called for de-escalation on all sides and I also think Boris Johnson is a bit more keen to distance himself from Trump given how little joint fanfare there was when he came over for the G7/NATO(?) summit just before the election.

[Dr. Gonzo]

From a UK perspective, thankfully we've got the government actually coming out and saying a war with Iran is in nobodies interests.

[Harry]

17 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I just hope Iran doesn’t immediately escalate. There’s enough internal pressure in the US and enough external pressure from Saudi Arabia and Israel to push for the US invading Iran. So if Iran gives them a reason to invade, I’m not sure there will be enough people to counsel this administration to restraint.

I've heard a few people saying the challenge Iran have is to respond hard and soon otherwise the militias or Hezbollah will end up doing something that will be worse and uncontrolled.

I.e. The problem they have is they can't actually control some of these groups, and yet will be held accountable for their actions.

Kudos on some awesome insightful posts mate.

[6666]

18 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Not wanting to go to war with Iran = hating Jews?

It's worrying how some people fall for the media narrative so much. It's even more worrying how some people take it to an even dumber level on their own.

[Azeem]

Iran has hoisted the red flag over their grand central mosque !

Shit just got real 

[Azeem]

“We say to everyone, just be a little patient to see dead bodies of Americans all over the Middle East”

Ismael Qaani new commander of the force previously led by Soliemani 

[6666]

37 minutes ago, Azeem said:

“We say to everyone, just be a little patient to see dead bodies of Americans all over the Middle East”

Ismael Qaani new commander of the force previously led by Soliemani 

A new commander!? Doesn't killing a commander mean that the position no longer exists!?

Edited January 4, 2020 by 6666

[Azeem]

8 minutes ago, 6666 said:

A new commander!? Doesn't killing a commander mean that the position no longer exists!?

Soliemani was in charge of the over all strategic command of the Al-Quds force of militias, now this guy is

[6666]

I need to make my sarcasm more obvious. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, 6666 said:

It's worrying how some people fall for the media narrative so much. It's even more worrying how some people take it to an even dumber level on their own.

Quite frankly it’s insane to say you can’t criticise Israel’s governments policies or you hate Jews. There’s Jews in Israel who criticise their government.

But that’s not what has even been claimed here. It’s been claimed that not wanting the West to continue to escalate tensions, so there’s no Iraq-style invasion of a country with a much larger standing army than Iraq ever had (and that’s expected the US to attack since 1979), has bigger cities that are more populated (remember the Iraqi insurgency and how the West struggled to cope with it... and still does). It’d destroy Iran, kill thousands of US soldiers (and soldiers of any country dumb enough to join them).

Not to mention the fact that the last time the US did something like this it sparked a massive refugee crisis. Given that so many of the people that would claim not wanting war with Iran is anti-Jew are the same people who are anti-Muslim... you’d think they’d want to avoid having more Muslims fleeing the Middle East to come west so they don’t have to worry about being blown up.

[Azeem]

Two rockets hit the US Consulate in Baghdad's green zone. Three rockets hit the US base in Balad, Iraq.

[6666]

Have both sides agreed that this fight is taking place in Iraq? because they seem to be the main ones getting battered.

[Fairy In Boots]

21 hours ago, Inverted said:

Having an opinion on whether assassinating Soleimani is a good idea is entirely separate from any consideration of his moral standing as a person. 

Kim Jong-Un is a bad guy, I'd even say Xi Jinping is a pretty bad guy - think it's a good idea to kill either of them? 

Killing either is entirely dependent on wether you believe that their removal will lead to a more advantageous future I suppose. You could argue that killing Suleimani will lead to an initial spike in violence but it will lessen over time before a resolution and therefore less violence in the long run. Me or anyone being for or against removal of figures is a case by case basis. 

On this I’m not going to miss this guy, will it be the smart thing to have done? time will tell. 

Personally I’m more happy than concerned about Trump putting his foot down. America are the big dog and in any hierarchy based on strength of arms then you can’t start appeasement it ultimately weakens the leadership. America is a cunt but it’s the cunt that ultimately is the best cunt. 

Would you rather Putin or China was in the driving seat? 

21 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Soleimani's not some new figure - he's been doing this for decades. The US, UK, and Israel have all had the opportunity to kill him at various times - they've all had restraint. Why? Really think long and hard about why even Israel, who've lost far more Israelis to Hezbollah attacks, would opt for restraint rather than go after this guy. Sun-Tsu once said, "if you're going to surround your enemy, leave them an escape route" - because when you've got someone feeling cornered, they'll react dangerously. I'd argue if Iran aren't cornered now, they're very fucking close to being cornered.

The US-Iran tensions being ratcheted up like this started a few years back with a move from the US that did absolutely nothing for stability in the Middle East and has been consistently stoked by both sides. Both sides keep escalating, but this is an unprecedented move. And it's an option that other world leaders have had the opportunity to act on... but refrained because the risk of blowback from that move is too great.

There's a reason why every world power involved in the Middle East is urging calm from Iran right now, while the orange guy is just saying "DON'T RETALIATE OR WE DO AGAIN" - Iran can't do anything meaningful to hurt the US, but Iran can do a lot to throw the region into even more chaos.

 

Not wanting to go to war with Iran = hating Jews?

In any case, this is bad for any Persian in the world who'd have hoped to see Iran open up to the rest of the world. Because what this ultimately does is tell Iran: get nukes ASAP. Iran only has to look at North Korea to see, a nuclear nation will not be bullied easily.

The reformers in Iran are so badly politically damaged now, some are probably going to be barred from running for office by the Guardians Council. They're seen as the politicians that hurt Iran by sitting to the table to negotiate with the West, while the other side was saying "you can't trust the west, they'll break the deal." Hardliners are vindicated and political support for a nuclear Iran will be at an all time high.

And a nuclear Iran means the Islamic Republic of Iran is here to stay for eternity.

No but it’s Poorly thought out from Corbyn to lament this given Suleimani’s connection with Hezbollah and his own issues with anti Semitism. 

Iran won’t be allowed to get nukes, you can’t have a state that is beholden to the insanity disease that is Islam with nuclear capability. 

18 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

To once again underscore how big of a miscalculation this was... not too long ago you had mass protests of Iranians taking to the streets and denouncing their government.

Today we've got them taking to the streets and denouncing America:

 

I'm sure Pompeo, the fucking warhawk, knew he was spouting off bullshit though. Same as Donald Rumsfeld's "I have no doubt we'll be greeted as liberators." 

I’d disagree anyway because you’re always going to be on a lose lose with invasion and nationalism. Even if the Americans would have gone in as s peacekeepers as part of the UN to stop the Iranians killing their own they would eventually become the oppressors after any kind of regime change. 

This is not an operation to win Iranian hearts and minds, the Yanks don’t really give a fuck about the Middle East long term now. This was far more a line in the sand to say attack our embassies we will fire back. Bo appeasement cash or talks, they’re going to take out serious targets. 

Why do you think we have such a drive for renewable energy? 

So that we’re not going to have to be involved with the sectarian clusterfuck that is the Middle East, China will move in eventually as they have in Africa. The west will leave the Middle East to its fate. 

18 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

And here was me thinking I'd find this thread full of people trying to point-score against Donald Trump .

I'm not very knowledgeable about the Middle East so I've been reading and listening up on this today before passing comment. It sounds like none of us should be upset about this bloke being removed. It also seems highly likely that the timing of this compared to the election in the US isn't a coincidence. The same could easily be said about Bin Laden and Obama. It's cynical but it's also how politics works and how people work.

You just have to hope things don't get too explosive. It sounds like Iran will retaliate by proxy rather than 'taking on' the US which would clearly be suicidal. My major hope apart from that is that our country thinks better of it and stays out of it. Dominic Raab has already called for de-escalation on all sides and I also think Boris Johnson is a bit more keen to distance himself from Trump given how little joint fanfare there was when he came over for the G7/NATO(?) summit just before the election.

We won’t get involved we want our shipping lanes open and access to the black stuff. 

1 hour ago, Azeem said:

Two rockets hit the US Consulate in Baghdad's green zone. Three rockets hit the US base in Balad, Iraq.

This was happening periodically anyway, you’re just presenting it to show an escalation in the region. 

[Fairy In Boots]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Quite frankly it’s insane to say you can’t criticise Israel’s governments policies or you hate Jews. There’s Jews in Israel who criticise their government.

But that’s not what has even been claimed here. It’s been claimed that not wanting the West to continue to escalate tensions, so there’s no Iraq-style invasion of a country with a much larger standing army than Iraq ever had (and that’s expected the US to attack since 1979), has bigger cities that are more populated (remember the Iraqi insurgency and how the West struggled to cope with it... and still does). It’d destroy Iran, kill thousands of US soldiers (and soldiers of any country dumb enough to join them).

Not to mention the fact that the last time the US did something like this it sparked a massive refugee crisis. Given that so many of the people that would claim not wanting war with Iran is anti-Jew are the same people who are anti-Muslim... you’d think they’d want to avoid having more Muslims fleeing the Middle East to come west so they don’t have to worry about being blown up.

Well it is because although you may disagree that with Israeli foreign policy the fact is that opposition are all actively engaged in trying to eradicate them. Hezbollah would be next to no different from the SS given the chance. That’s the harsh reality

3 hours ago, Azeem said:

Iran has hoisted the red flag over their grand central mosque !

Shit just got real 

Lol a cyber attack some attacks on consulates and contractors. 

If you watched Game of thrones, American capabilities are Drogon. The raising of a red flag is akin to Cersei staring menacingly from the wall. Looks good but Tehran could become a waste land, it’s not a fair fight. 

3 hours ago, 6666 said:

It's worrying how some people fall for the media narrative so much. It's even more worrying how some people take it to an even dumber level on their own.

See above, the Iranian regime have had an international holocaust cartoon contest ffs. 

It’s kill or be exterminated for the Jews in the Middle East now, they’ve been exterminated before in the Middle East. They may be (the Israelis) a bit like apartheid South Africa but their alternative is eradication. 

I find all calls for them to just lay down and let it happen either bizarrely stupid or because of some form of hatred for them or bias. All 3 of you challenging it are Muslim after all.

[Dr. Gonzo]

I’m not Muslim 

[Fairy In Boots]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I’m not Muslim 

Well lapsed or whatever, you would still identify with it in the same way I do Irish Catholic despite me believing the Roman Catholic Church a collection of pedophiles and fraudsters

Edited January 4, 2020 by Fairy In Boots

[Azeem]

38 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

This was happening periodically anyway, you’re just presenting it to show an escalation in the region. 

That's why i named it ' The Big Middle Eastern Thread ' we post here any little or major event that happens there. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Just now, Fairy In Boots said:

Well lapsed or whatever, you would still identify with it in the same was I do Irish Catholic despite me believing the Roman Catholic Church a collection of pedophiles and fraudsters

Nah not really. I can identify with Persians because I’m half-Persian but not because I’m Muslim. And maybe that means I can relate with other cultures in the region better than most. But I think as someone born in England and who grew up there, I mostly identify as English, just with a Persian mum.

Fuck religion and religious people. They’re a big reason the Middle East is so utterly fucked.

[Azeem]

1 hour ago, Azeem said:

Two rockets hit the US Consulate in Baghdad's green zone. Three rockets hit the US base in Balad, Iraq.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1Z220B

Reuters say its fake news

Edited January 4, 2020 by Azeem

[Fairy In Boots]

11 minutes ago, Azeem said:

That's why i named it ' The Big Middle Eastern Thread ' we post here any little or major event that happens there. 

Fair enough because you posted it after your initial post of shit getting serious I’ve obviously read too much into that post. 

10 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Nah not really. I can identify with Persians because I’m half-Persian but not because I’m Muslim. And maybe that means I can relate with other cultures in the region better than most. But I think as someone born in England and who grew up there, I mostly identify as English, just with a Persian mum.

Fuck religion and religious people. They’re a big reason the Middle East is so utterly fucked.

Fair enough, have you still got family out there? And what are their views on Israel? 

Most older Iranians I know fled the revolution are are very modern although they do play up their ethnicity when it benefits them. For example my one mate always wrangles a free kebab when he’s pissed up in the early hours from the Persian kebab place in Birmingham (by pagoda island FYI) 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Yeah I’ve got family out there and tbh nobody really cares about Israel other than when they keep building settlements and then they bitch about how it’s bullshit they’re allowed to violate international law yet face no sanctions.

People out there hate Saudis more, as Saudis pose a more imminent threat to Iran with their support of salafi/wahabbi extremists on their borders.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Also @Fairy In Boots if you could grab yourself a free tasty kabob just cos of your ethnicity, why not?  fair play to your mate