Russia and Ukraine

[Guest]

Does anyone understand this Sunday driving ban they are talking about? Apparently it's done in germany ?

[Dr. Gonzo]

11 hours ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

I saw footage of a real war crime today. Something expressly forbidden in the Geneva Convention. Not some 'oh maybe this might happen according to reports' story that someone has posted to twitter. Combat footage. 

Ukranians ambush a tank column, and as tank crews escape their destroyed vehicles, they are mercilessly gunned down. Very much a war crime, in a legal sense. 

Funny I heard nothing about it on the news or social media. Odd. 

If they were trying to surrender, it's definitely a war crime.

I'm not going to defend war crimes, but if you put yourselves in the shoes of Ukrainian soldiers right now it's pretty easy to see why Russians will be on the receiving end of war crimes here. Russia's invaded them and commit shitloads of war crimes in the last week. They'll have seen the videos that go around on social media of the tanks that were running over civilians, the soldiers shooting at civilians, the bombing campaigns targeting civilian infrastructure and bomb shelters... and they're not going to know whether or not the Russians right in front of them are the same soldiers or not.

Some of them are going to be wanting serious revenge. And because war crimes are seldom punished, they're probably going to feel like their crimes are justified in the face of this attack on them and the war crimes they faced in the opening moves of the war.

I don't think it's justifiable, because it's still a war crime. Tank crews trying to escape their destroyed vehicles are likely about to surrender - so I think there's a good argument that shooting troops as they escape the vehicles is a definite war crime.

But I also think Russia's invasion has done a lot to dehumanise Russians, especially with regard to how they're viewed by Ukrainians... and especially their soldiers. And as a result, I suspect Russian soldiers find themselves on the receiving end of a lot of war crimes as a result of a war they started that had a whole host of war crimes commited by them in the last month.

The longer the war goes on, the less likely it is any Russians will be able to surrender before being gunned down imo.

[CaaC (John)+]

4 hours ago, Inverted said:

I'm not sure that specifically is a war crime, unless they were trying to surrender? Gunning down fleeing enemies is nasty, but I always thought it was standard practise, especially considering that a trained crew is arguably more valuable than the tank itself in the grand scheme of things.

Of course, in the heat of battle, it's probably very difficult for a tank crew to simultaneously bail from their vehicle and surrender clearly at the same time.

I'm sure the Ukrainians are still committing plenty of war crimes too, though.

War is war, a lot of troops wherever think in the heat of the moment, a fierce battle is raging and they are not going to yell out "lay your arms down and surrender..." they don't have time to capture prisoners and march them away, its kill or be killed, the ones fleeing away could easily pick up weapons and start shooting back, war is evil whichever way you look at it.

If you look at old clips of WWII and the Americans invading the islands on their way to Japan you will see Japanese prisoners surrendering but the Americans would not accept the surrender until the Japanese stripped off their clothes.

The reason was that the Americans learnt the lesson in the early stages of the war that the Japanese surrendering would commit suicide by hiding grenades on themselves and soon as they got close to the Americans they would kill themselves and take as many of the enemy they could with them. 

This is nowadays a form of suicide bombers, you can't take the risk in the battle of being killed in the heat of the moment.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

6 hours ago, Inverted said:

I'm not sure that specifically is a war crime, unless they were trying to surrender? Gunning down fleeing enemies is nasty, but I always thought it was standard practise, especially considering that a trained crew is arguably more valuable than the tank itself in the grand scheme of things.

Of course, in the heat of battle, it's probably very difficult for a tank crew to simultaneously bail from their vehicle and surrender clearly at the same time.

I'm sure the Ukrainians are still committing plenty of war crimes too, though.

 

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If they were trying to surrender, it's definitely a war crime.

I'm not going to defend war crimes, but if you put yourselves in the shoes of Ukrainian soldiers right now it's pretty easy to see why Russians will be on the receiving end of war crimes here. Russia's invaded them and commit shitloads of war crimes in the last week. They'll have seen the videos that go around on social media of the tanks that were running over civilians, the soldiers shooting at civilians, the bombing campaigns targeting civilian infrastructure and bomb shelters... and they're not going to know whether or not the Russians right in front of them are the same soldiers or not.

Some of them are going to be wanting serious revenge. And because war crimes are seldom punished, they're probably going to feel like their crimes are justified in the face of this attack on them and the war crimes they faced in the opening moves of the war.

I don't think it's justifiable, because it's still a war crime. Tank crews trying to escape their destroyed vehicles are likely about to surrender - so I think there's a good argument that shooting troops as they escape the vehicles is a definite war crime.

But I also think Russia's invasion has done a lot to dehumanise Russians, especially with regard to how they're viewed by Ukrainians... and especially their soldiers. And as a result, I suspect Russian soldiers find themselves on the receiving end of a lot of war crimes as a result of a war they started that had a whole host of war crimes commited by them in the last month.

The longer the war goes on, the less likely it is any Russians will be able to surrender before being gunned down imo.

It's against the geneva convention to kill disembarking tank crew. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/ukraine-has-launched-counteroffensives-reportedly-surrounding-10000-russian-troops/?sh=2b9be38b1170

Ukraine has reportedly surrounded 10k Russian troops in their recent counteroffensive.

[Waylander]

The following countries are not putting sanctions on Russia:

China

India

Pakistan

Turkey

Iran

Brazil

South Africa

There are others too looks like the world power balance is starting to change.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

3 hours ago, Waylander said:

The following countries are not putting sanctions on Russia:

China

India

Pakistan

Turkey

Iran Russia Mk2 Arabian boogaloo

Brazil

South Africa

There are others too looks like the world power balance is starting to change.

 Fixed that for you mate 

Edited March 26, 2022 by Devil-Dick Willie

[Dr. Gonzo]

16 hours ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

 Fixed that for you mate 

Not really  most Iranians aren’t Arabs & Putin dreams of being as repressive of a dictator as Khamenei. And they’re more a Chinese puppet than anything.

But Iran not joining in on sanctions isn’t to be surprised at all. I can’t imagine they’d join in on sanctioning any countries that aren’t: the US, UK, & Israel 

[Dr. Gonzo]

19 hours ago, Waylander said:

The following countries are not putting sanctions on Russia:

China

India

Pakistan

Turkey

Iran

Brazil

South Africa

There are others too looks like the world power balance is starting to change.

Aren’t those all countries that have very strong trade ties with Russia?

China is just trying to play both sides here imo. They rely on trade with the rest and many of their actions have been in line with the west’s condemnation of Russia.

They also stand to gain pretty massively from a Russia that is largely isolated - they can do what they’ve done with Iran: become the dominant trade partner & have another country that is essentially one step above a puppet.

Russia’s really given China prime opportunity to fully hook Russia with economic imperialism with this war. I really can’t understand Putin’s thinking here - he’s managed to make his military look like dogshit and for as long as he’s alive Russia will be economically isolated by the west.

India was basically given permission from the US to use kid gloves on Russia early on in this conflict because Russia’s a huge exporter of food to them. The EU’s still buying Russian oil and gas despite the hard line been taken, but because of it they now have to pay in rubles. I think trade between Russia and India has all the same ties it has before the invasion.

[Waylander]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Aren’t those all countries that have very strong trade ties with Russia?

China is just trying to play both sides here imo. They rely on trade with the rest and many of their actions have been in line with the west’s condemnation of Russia.

They also stand to gain pretty massively from a Russia that is largely isolated - they can do what they’ve done with Iran: become the dominant trade partner & have another country that is essentially one step above a puppet.

Russia’s really given China prime opportunity to fully hook Russia with economic imperialism with this war. I really can’t understand Putin’s thinking here - he’s managed to make his military look like dogshit and for as long as he’s alive Russia will be economically isolated by the west.

India was basically given permission from the US to use kid gloves on Russia early on in this conflict because Russia’s a huge exporter of food to them. The EU’s still buying Russian oil and gas despite the hard line been taken, but because of it they now have to pay in rubles. I think trade between Russia and India has all the same ties it has before the invasion.

Well there is the SCO economic group which covers most of the Eurasian countries.

If China and India and 'friends' agree to settle trade without using US$ that covers approx. over 50% of the global population.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Waylander

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, Waylander said:

Well there is the SCO economic group which covers most of the Eurasian countries.

If China and India and 'friends' agree to settle trade without using US$ that covers approx. over 50% of the global population.

But I doubt India would do that, they don’t exactly have the best relations with China - including active border disputes.

I’m actually not sure if China would want to anger the West too much at this point in time. They’re having their own economic issues with with a real estate bubble crisis & rely heavily on the west for trade.

But I think they’re happy to play as a middle man where they advocate for deescalation but also are fine with Putin remaining in charge with Russia experiencing economic isolation. It gives them prime opportunity to exploit Russia.

[Azeem]

Alternatives to Russian gas being proposed from Iraq trough Turkey or Qatar, latter however has said entirely replacing Russia isn't possible.

[RandoEFC+]

 

The fuck...

[Dr. Gonzo]

Wasn't expecting to see that headline!

[CaaC (John)+]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

The fuck...

Quote

Roman Abramovich and Ukrainian Peace Negotiators Suffer Suspected Poisoning

Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at talks in Kyiv earlier this month, sources close to him say.

The Chelsea FC owner - who has now recovered - reportedly suffered sore eyes and skin peeling.

Two Ukrainian peace negotiators were also said to have been affected.

The Wall Street Journal reported claims the alleged poisoning was orchestrated by hardliners in Russia who wanted to sabotage the talks.

The condition of Mr Abramovich and the Ukrainian negotiators, who include Ukrainian MP Rustem Umerov, has improved since the incident on 3 March, the paper quoted sources as saying.

A source close to Mr Abramovich told the BBC he had suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning. They said he had now recovered and was continuing with negotiations to try and end the war in Ukraine.

FULL REPORT

 

[Waylander]

I suspect agents for the Russian MOD do not want a truce and want a land grab re not trusting Ukraine not to join NATO.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Peace talks in Turkey seem to be going alright. Ukraine's suggesting that it will never joint NATO (it can't for a decade after an active conflict, in any case per NATO rules) and Russia suggesting it will pull troops back from around Kyev.

[RandoEFC+]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Peace talks in Turkey seem to be going alright. Ukraine's suggesting that it will never joint NATO (it can't for a decade after an active conflict, in any case per NATO rules) and Russia suggesting it will pull troops back from around Kyev.

Russia already started doing this a couple of days ago. At the time, the conclusion was it was to shore up their numbers in the Donbas region as their advance on Kyiv had stalled anyway. But who knows...

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 minute ago, RandoEFC said:

Russia already started doing this a couple of days ago. At the time, the conclusion was it was to shore up their numbers in the Donbas region as their advance on Kyiv had stalled anyway. But who knows...

Today the US has come out and said satellite images show significant withdrawal today though.

I'm pretty sure the satellite images are a big part of what the US was basing it's intel on when it was warning for weeks that Russia would invade - so while I'm always a bit skeptical of US intelligence, they've sort of been fairly open in calling out what's been happening with this conflict (probably because this is a conflict they're trying to diffuse rather than one they're an active participant in)... and they've been proven to be pretty accurate so far. So until they start making incorrect assessments, I'll keep listening to what they're reporting from their satellites.

[Dr. Gonzo]

11 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Today the US has come out and said satellite images show significant withdrawal today though.

I'm pretty sure the satellite images are a big part of what the US was basing it's intel on when it was warning for weeks that Russia would invade - so while I'm always a bit skeptical of US intelligence, they've sort of been fairly open in calling out what's been happening with this conflict (probably because this is a conflict they're trying to diffuse rather than one they're an active participant in)... and they've been proven to be pretty accurate so far. So until they start making incorrect assessments, I'll keep listening to what they're reporting from their satellites.

 @RandoEFC , US intel is now saying Russia is repositioning forces (like you said) rather than withdrawing.

[RandoEFC+]

 

[Stan]

Just seen a picture of families and kids piled up or burnt. And it's fucking horrific. Russia will pay for this surely. 

[CaaC (John)+]

47 minutes ago, Stan said:

Just seen a picture of families and kids piled up or burnt. And it's fucking horrific. Russia will pay for this surely. 

The only way the despot Putin will pay for this is if he is taken down in a coup and then handed over for trial, he has a nuclear Arsenal that he is using as blackmail, Russia never succeded in Afghanistan and hopefully will never succeed in the Ukraine.

Every time I see this war it reminds me of the despot Hitler and bombing Russian cities and killing innocent civilians for his lust for power and land in WWll, we all condemned Hitler for bombing the likes of Stalingrad, Leningrad etc and now bloody Putin and his Generals are doing the same in the Ukraine.

Putin must have been reincarnated from Hitler.

[Waylander]

I expect Russia to take and hold all the Black Sea region.

I don't think they will take Kiev expect them to hold more land in the East and South.

After that expect a deal might be done and yes it might turn out like North and South Korea.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, Stan said:

Just seen a picture of families and kids piled up or burnt. And it's fucking horrific. Russia will pay for this surely. 

I can't see a post-war Russia with sanctions removed while Putin is still in power.

Still, I wish we would also give all war crimes the same weight we're giving Russia's in Ukraine.