Russia and Ukraine

[Waylander]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

today's brics conference showed how powerless the West is to stop this.  the sanctions did nothing but boomerang back on the West as Xi stated.   Putin's comments were also interesting regarding the future for Brics

There are always two arguments one is Russia as the aggressor and violent bully the other is of the 2014 coup with Biden's son Hunter having business interests in Ukraine and Russian minorities being violently attacked. . The alternative US media a year before the election said a Biden victory meant a potential war with Russia.

Russia since 2014 knew they had to prepare for war or sanctions and have done so, a number of BRIC nations see the US as an economic bully with a big stick and others like cheap fuel. 

Wouldn't be surprised if the US military end up brokering a ceasefire over Biden's head which would be a first for a sitting president.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Waylander said:

Russia since 2014 knew they had to prepare for war or sanctions and have done so

The thing is since 2014: Russia had been sanctioned (albeit ineffectively) for it's invasion of Crimea. And had been prepared for war because they'd... invaded a country and the two countries were actively fighting since the invasion (just not on the level of the current scale of military conflict).

And Ukraine had been warning the West that Russia was preparing to attack as early as 2018.

So yeah, Russia certainly knew they had to prepare for war and sanctions... because in the aftermath of their invasion of Crimea they were involved in a smaller military conflict, but still a military conflict, with Ukraine... and were facing sanctions as a direct result of the invasion of Crimea.

It seems as though Putin thought that the West's reaction would be similar to how it was in 2014 or to the world's reaction to the US invasion of Iraq and that Russia was pretty unprepared for the West being seriously committed to support Ukraine in a fight against Russia while also putting far more serious sanctions on them.

[Azeem]

Putin should be on twitter

[OrangeKhrush]

9 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

The thing is since 2014: Russia had been sanctioned (albeit ineffectively) for it's invasion of Crimea. And had been prepared for war because they'd... invaded a country and the two countries were actively fighting since the invasion (just not on the level of the current scale of military conflict).

And Ukraine had been warning the West that Russia was preparing to attack as early as 2018.

So yeah, Russia certainly knew they had to prepare for war and sanctions... because in the aftermath of their invasion of Crimea they were involved in a smaller military conflict, but still a military conflict, with Ukraine... and were facing sanctions as a direct result of the invasion of Crimea.

It seems as though Putin thought that the West's reaction would be similar to how it was in 2014 or to the world's reaction to the US invasion of Iraq and that Russia was pretty unprepared for the West being seriously committed to support Ukraine in a fight against Russia while also putting far more serious sanctions on them.

going on the BRICS convention Russia and China prepared well and invested wealth in their commodities, the sanctions have hit the West incredibly hard while Russia remains relatively unaffected.

this is no longer a war and a ceasefire needs to be brokered and the West needs to pay heed to the rising power of the East.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

going on the BRICS convention Russia and China prepared well and invested wealth in their commodities, the sanctions have hit the West incredibly hard while Russia remains relatively unaffected.

this is no longer a war and a ceasefire needs to be brokered and the West needs to pay heed to the rising power of the East.

If Russia remained uneffected their stock market wouldn’t have crashed & then been frozen

[OrangeKhrush]

46 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If Russia remained uneffected their stock market wouldn’t have crashed & then been frozen

They secured their wealth in commodities and syphoned through china,  while western currency is frozen off,  they have an abundance of things people need to survive. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

They secured their wealth in commodities and syphoned through china,  while western currency is frozen off,  they have an abundance of things people need to survive. 

China is the real winner from this war, tbh. Russia relies on them more than ever now and Russia now has 2 countries selling it oil at below market rates that are basically cut off from the normal global economy.

But Russia is for sure worse off economically than it was and it likely won't recover fully until they have regular economic engagement again with the west.

[Waylander]

Concerning sitrep map from Ukraine, Russia after taking Sverodonetsk is not close to cutting off Ukraininan forces and taking more towns and industrial plants.

 

 

 

[Azeem]

It's a war of attrition for Ukraine

[Tommy]

Awful.  

[Dr. Gonzo]

5 hours ago, Tommy said:

Awful.  

Yeah, it's very awful.

I think, unfortunately, the longer this war goes on the more brutal Russia will be in trying to break the will of the Ukrainian people... a bit like what we saw with Russia helping Assad in Syria.

I know people have been holding out hope that Russia wouldn't bring that kind of carnage to Europe... but I don't think Putin or the Russian leadership particularly care about where the conflict is. I think this is just how Russia fights when it's in a conflict that has gone on longer than the leadership had originally anticipated. And tbh, I think that was signaled when they put the guy who was in charge of Russian forces in Syria to be in charge of this war.

Like @Aladdinsaid, for Ukraine this is a war of attrition - whether they can be propped up by the West to keep up this fight to get some semblance of a Ukrainian victory before they've become too stretched and worn out to keep up the fight. Russia's lost a huge chunk of it's military, but they have the manpower to keep the fight up regardless of the huge losses. But Putin's not exactly patient and Russia's got a history of getting pretty brutal and not shying away from war crimes in order to achieve military victory... and if Ukraine doesn't win, I don't think Russia will ever see the consequences for war crimes.

And I do wonder if Russia will feel the sting of sanctions over the long term, like Iran and Cuba, or if European dependence on them will be too strong to give Russia long term consequences for the invasion assuming that by the end of all of this Putin is still in power. I know from my family, the long term economic impacts of sanctions are devastating - and while I think it's unfair for tons of ordinary Russians who had nothing to do with this invasion other than just living in Russia... because if Putin stays in power, Russia deserves to be feeling the economic sting of sanctions for a long time.

Sanctions aren't a death-nell to a country, Iran and Cuba have survived while being cut off from normal access to the global economy. But they do create an economic strain that just gets compounded over time - and while they can be miserable for the people living in those countries, Russia needs to be feeling the consequences of being a belligerent war criminal nation. I'm not convinced sanctions are actually any good at getting meaningful long-term change over time (because... well look at Iran and Cuba lol) - but I certainly think Russia's more deserving of punative sanctions than two countries that have been punished for decades for getting rid of US-backed puppets.

[Azeem]

Putin was an average rank intelligence officer his political career was bolstered by the Chechnyan War which was triggered after the Moscow bombings in 99. Largely believed that Putin orchestrated the attacks himself.

[OrangeKhrush]

On 26/06/2022 at 18:37, Waylander said:

Concerning sitrep map from Ukraine, Russia after taking Sverodonetsk is not close to cutting off Ukraininan forces and taking more towns and industrial plants.

 

 

 

that is not good, basically flanked and a retreat will be death so basically it's over

[Azeem]

Turkey ( or Türkiye ) has dropped opposition to Sweden Finland joining NATO after getting written agreement from both on siding with Turkey on PKK issue. 

Like him or hate him but Erdogan is good at diplomacy, he got exactly what he wanted this would help him domestically in elections next year.  

[Waylander]

2 hours ago, Aladdin said:

Turkey ( or Türkiye ) has dropped opposition to Sweden Finland joining NATO after getting written agreement from both on siding with Turkey on PKK issue. 

Like him or hate him but Erdogan is good at diplomacy, he got exactly what he wanted this would help him domestically in elections next year.  

A very clever political player.

[Waylander]

3 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

that is not good, basically flanked and a retreat will be death so basically it's over

I agree I keep reading UKE troops are getting surrounded and having to surrender and that most are in retreat. 

[Azeem]

Turkey is strategically too important to stay neutral in this conflict. They can't be anodyne, either NATO or Russia will get pissed with them

[OrangeKhrush]

1 hour ago, Aladdin said:

Turkey is strategically too important to stay neutral in this conflict. They can't be anodyne, either NATO or Russia will get pissed with them

i wonder how Turkish Adolph will take it

[MUFC]

https://news.sky.com/story/bernie-ecclestone-says-he-would-take-a-bullet-for-first-class-vladimir-putin-as-he-defends-war-in-ukraine-12642942

[OrangeKhrush]

4 hours ago, MUFC said:

https://news.sky.com/story/bernie-ecclestone-says-he-would-take-a-bullet-for-first-class-vladimir-putin-as-he-defends-war-in-ukraine-12642942

lol Bernie.   but I trust western leaders about the same as Putin.  at least Putin won't sugarcoat it.  the west is rotten to the core

[Azeem]

Some weird banter between the two lately lol

[Dr. Gonzo]

56 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Some weird banter between the two lately lol

I think he's just trying to score easy points here. Gets to look like he's a champion of womens rights by making a dig at toxic masculinity & it's he gets to have a dig at Putin too, which is easy to do for any politician in the West to curry a bit of media favour.

Plus being chummy with the media and making jokes has gotten him this far in his political career - I can't see him ever stopping, especially when he sees he's got an easy way to have a dig at some kind of political opponent. It's sort of the "special move" he's used throughout his career.

[OrangeKhrush]

This has started to lose steam,  the post a Ukrainian flag thing is old news now and we have western officials including British and American military personal saying its practically over.  

It doesn't help when the western leaders happen to be BJ and JB. 

 

[OrangeKhrush]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/us-china-seek-calm-rising-tensions-fronts-86500800

this reminds me of the Hans Blix, Kim Jong Un scene from Team America.

China are not threatened, they already have their mits in the back pocket of Nancy, Joe and Chuck, have their paws in CNN and MSNBC and just bought a Chuck of fuel from America's strategic reserves and I won't be surprised if they do ordinates Abe's assassination.

Blinkin is barking up the wrong tree.

[Azeem]

Turkey has been the only winner out of this whole situation so far.