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Russia and Ukraine


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11 hours ago, Aladdin said:

Turkey has been the only winner out of this whole situation so far.

I think China's going to come out of this conflict feeling pretty good too. Maybe not with their ambitions to eventually "reunify" China by taking Taiwan... but I think they've stood to gain a lot from Russia being put under strain by the West. They now have a role as a sort of middle man, with a reliant west on them, a cheaper oil & gas from Russia (also driving Iran to drop prices to be competitive, so ultimately getting cheaper oil and gas), and an economic void to fill with many western countries leaving Russia that China can replace and in turn have more influence over their politics in the future.

Turkey's definitely come out of this looking like the NATO country that's angling to restore peace between Russia and Ukraine and end the war though and weirdly Erdogan ends up looking like a pretty good statesman at least on matters of foreign policy/geopolitics because of this conflict.

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On 15/07/2022 at 10:50, Aladdin said:

Bogus. Iran very likely doesn't have that precise ammunition to target U.S supplied modern armaments. Just want to enlarge the conflict, God save us

I think it’s pretext for the US to start getting involved in more shit in the Middle East tbh

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2 hours ago, Aladdin said:

When you live up to your 'transcontinental' name. 

I think Erdogan is an awful shitty human, but there's no doubt his foreign policy game is very strong. The Ukraine-Russia war has been nothing but a series of wins for him. He's even leveraged Russia's deepened ties with Iran to restore diplomatic relations with Israel, which I think signifies that Israel and Turkey have plans for Syria and are counting on Russia not being able to maintain their strong presence there as this Ukraine war keeps dragging on.

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Erdogan is Machiavellian for sure.

I would not expect any relation to necessarily stay in place for long.

Working with Russia to get grain supplies out of Ukraine will win him favour in the Islamic world.

The 12m Kurds in Eastern Turkey remain a threat if any super power decides to support them. 

Close to 3m Syrians living in Turkish camps near the Syrian border will probably guarantee him a spot at any international brokered Syrian peace plan.

Syria will only fall if Russia fails, though there may come a point when the Syrians want to end the fighting.  About 18 months ago the Russians advised the Syrians to forget about regaining the Kurdish part of Syria, Assad disagreed. I think that view has now accepted Kurdish control and may even be thinking of making concessions in parts of the north where Turkish backed forces remain.

The Ukraine conflict continues with both draining Russian forces and Ukrainian forces while both inflation in the West and especially the US and UK threatens political instability. 

The Great Game is in full swing with no end in sight. 

 

 

 

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On 16/08/2022 at 18:55, Beelzebub said:

UK airforce's largest cargo plane has so far made 6 flights from Pakistan to Romania, military equipment for Ukraine for sure. We apparently have Ukraine compatible armaments specially tanks. 

Same shit new theatre.

 

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2 hours ago, Tommy said:

RIP, but I'm honestly surprised that he was still alive. 

Well, maybe there aren't that many people who live to their 90's in Russia, but it's become very common in the West. Gorbachev though ruled at a critical period of Soviet history. There are many people who hold him responsible for the demise and the fall of the Soviet Union. I was reading an article about him several months ago and knowing his age, I knew he wouldn't have much longer to live. Still, it's a sad moment when such a prominent former political leader passes away.

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3 minutes ago, Michael said:

Well, maybe there aren't that many people who live to their 90's in Russia, but it's become very common in the West. Gorbachev though ruled at a critical period of Soviet history. There are many people who hold him responsible for the demise and the fall of the Soviet Union. I was reading an article about him several months ago and knowing his age, I knew he wouldn't have much longer to live. Still, it's a sad moment when such a prominent former political leader passes away.

Yea, and he was one of those people who in the 90s already seemed quite old to me. So I wouldn't have thought he was still alive in 2022. 😅

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On 19/08/2022 at 12:40, Waylander said:

Erdogan is Machiavellian for sure.

I would not expect any relation to necessarily stay in place for long.

Working with Russia to get grain supplies out of Ukraine will win him favour in the Islamic world.

The 12m Kurds in Eastern Turkey remain a threat if any super power decides to support them. 

Close to 3m Syrians living in Turkish camps near the Syrian border will probably guarantee him a spot at any international brokered Syrian peace plan.

Syria will only fall if Russia fails, though there may come a point when the Syrians want to end the fighting.  About 18 months ago the Russians advised the Syrians to forget about regaining the Kurdish part of Syria, Assad disagreed. I think that view has now accepted Kurdish control and may even be thinking of making concessions in parts of the north where Turkish backed forces remain.

The Ukraine conflict continues with both draining Russian forces and Ukrainian forces while both inflation in the West and especially the US and UK threatens political instability. 

The Great Game is in full swing with no end in sight. 

 

 

 

Russian stubbornness and refusal to commit more men to the fronts due to "pride" means the are grossly outnumbered.  they committed 150k to fight the entire Ukrainian forces, they are undermanned and supplies to far behind.   by the same token Ukraine are technologically inferior can't can't take back so you have a WW1 style no man's land.

Russia haven't committed Mig 35 4th gen+ fighters to out gun aging mig 29 and su27s.   Russia will also have 67 SU57s by October which Ukraine can't fight against.  Ukraine is hitting supply depots while Russia keeps hitting Ukraine toys they get from the west.   so it is a big drain on everyone right now.   

the war is a stalemate hurting everyone.

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1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Russian stubbornness and refusal to commit more men to the fronts due to "pride" means the are grossly outnumbered.  they committed 150k to fight the entire Ukrainian forces, they are undermanned and supplies to far behind.   by the same token Ukraine are technologically inferior can't can't take back so you have a WW1 style no man's land.

Russia haven't committed Mig 35 4th gen+ fighters to out gun aging mig 29 and su27s.   Russia will also have 67 SU57s by October which Ukraine can't fight against.  Ukraine is hitting supply depots while Russia keeps hitting Ukraine toys they get from the west.   so it is a big drain on everyone right now.   

the war is a stalemate hurting everyone.

Certainly is a stalemate seems to me the US is happy to send weapons to see how they function in a real war setting.

The real loser of course is the Ukrainian people as their country faces being devastated.

Russia has made comments about Transinistra the area to the East of Moldova with its Russian speaking citizens. 

It could become a future hot zone.

Latvia is  also interesting and though I do think there will be trouble there possibly as much as 40% of its people see themselves as Russians rather than Latvians. 

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