UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Yep we back shithouses, but the harsh reality of life is you’re either the oppressed or the oppressors. 

So what about us backing the Saudis, who then back ISIS, who then have terrorist attacks in Europe? We're backing the oppressors to make ourselves oppressed in that case.

Meanwhile when was the last time Iran did anything seriously bad to us? Detaining some sailors who were in their waters - then releasing them unharmed. And then before that, the 1981 embassy siege where the SAS came in and fucked them over on television. And honestly, what the fuck had Chavez's Venezuela done to us.

If you actually look at those 2 oil producing countries that we don't have good ties with... and then Saudi Arabia, that we do have good ties with but they also want to back wahhabist fuckheads… it does beg the question of what the fuck is wrong with the status quo of our foreign policy.

Personally, I think DUP propping up May's failure in government is more simply explained than their dislike of Corbyn. They were once irrelevant and now they're the lynchpin holding a British government together. They've never had this much power, why would they want to give that up?

[Dr. Gonzo]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4ovmboa1iw/Internal_190108_Brexit_web.pdf

only 56% of people know what No Deal actually means. It’s so much worse than I thought, very depressing 

[Azeem]

Lol Britian established the house of Saud ever heard of Lawerence of Arabia.

And here is a thing about oil. 

Not all oil producing countries are the same some countries have a better quality oil compared to others and it makes a huge difference when it comes to heavy industry.

So why do you guys need to back the Saudis ? The sams reason Iranian/Venezualan oil is too hard and crude it fucks the engine and requires a lot of refining which makes it even more expensive while the Arabian oil is lite and pre refined mostly and it runs smoothly.

Germany which has one of the finest engineering in the world and they make stuff the whole world wants so they can make enough money to buy quality oil.

What does UK makes that the world wants ? Or France ? Or Spain etc so you guys need to do these dirty works and back the Saudis to get quality oil for cheap. 

That's why Germany stopped its weapon supply to Saudis while you guys can't otherwise say good bye to quality oil on cheap prices. 

And besides its not all about oil, West also needs to protect its buddy Israel and you need Saudis for that its not all about oil. 

 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by Azeem

[Azeem]

And i thought ISIS had been defeated three times by US, Iran/Russia and Turkey in the last five years. 

Looks like everyone has their own ISIS to defeat 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I’d rather sell oil refining equipment to Iran or Venezuela than sell weapons to the Saudis.

And I’m fairly certain the only people who think ISIS has been defeated are Trump and the simpletons that parrot everything he says.

[Azeem]

You will need to buy it from someone else and than sell it as i said there isn't anything that countries like UK, France etc specialise in like Germany does in engineering, well other than small things like cheese, wine etc

So buying oil from Suadis in return for weapons is lot cheaper.

[Azeem]

Everyone has their own definition of ISIS

for Iran/Russia Anti-Assad are ISIS

for Turks Kurds are ISIS

for America everyone is 

[Dr. Gonzo]

22 hours ago, Azeem said:

You will need to buy it from someone else and than sell it as i said there isn't anything that countries like UK, France etc specialise in like Germany does in engineering, well other than small things like cheese, wine etc

So buying oil from Suadis in return for weapons is lot cheaper.

Yeah that’s why leaving the EU and leaving behind mutually beneficial multilateral trade agreements is really just Britain punching itself in the balls while insisting that we can still have good trade deals - because what we really have to offer to the world is financial services and not a lot else.

Oh and Dyson is fucking off to Singapore 

[Honey Honey]

Adam Smith died a few centuries ago lads  The west has moved on from specialisation to highly complex diversification in a global supply chain operation of goods, services and capital.

In fact in the mobile phone of every member on here there is most likely a part created or designed in the UK. Complex products don't come from singular countries quite like wine does. 

The German trade surplus calculation is distorted by the stage in the global supply chain which they sit, rather than specialisation itself. The value added doesn't filter down to ordinary people very well but is mainly redistributed back out across the world to shareholders and non-manufacturing aspects of a business model. 

For example, if it takes 3 widgets to make a car, 1 widget from Slovakia costing €1000, 1 widget from Italy costing €1000 and 1 widget from Brazil costing €1000 that is an import cost calculated at €3000. The car plant, based in Germany, sticks the 3 widgets together and sends it to Russia for €10000. The trade surplus or value added in Germany is then calculated at €7000. Does this money filter down into the local economy of the car plant? Little. The shareholders from Japan, Dubai, Australia all around the world take their cut. The hedge funds from the UK, the pension funds from the Netherlands. Then the company takes its value added money and spends it in Russia on advertising, on opening a salesroom, providing car finance. The tentacles of globalisation are too complex for the old fashioned business view of seeing everything in terms of national borders. It might have been that way before Margaret Thatcher and co around the world abolished capital controls but money is now recycled in myriad ways creating a system that keeps fuelling itself.

Dyson are moving 2 people to Singapore. They haven't manufactured in the UK for over a decade and I might be wrong but I don't think has even paid corporation tax here for years. The role the UK plays in the globalised economic process of a Dyson product is the value added by the 3000 strong engineering design plant, the investments made there and the gainful employment there, that is what impacts the local economy. 

Any left wing government worth its salt would indirectly make trading with its economy harder by passing progressive laws and taxes that improve human rights, workers rights, animal rights and the enviornment. 

Trade deals aren't so much about swapping bananas for pottery in the Adam Smith conception of it anymore. It is far more complex now. "Good" trade deals are about the facilitation of more transactions given that governments rightly or wrongly judge an economy by a value of all its transactions.

[RandoEFC+]

@Harvsky hitting me with a lot of nostalgia from the Econ half of my time at university.

[Dr. Gonzo]

7 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Trade deals aren't so much about swapping bananas for pottery in the Adam Smith conception of it anymore. It is far more complex now. "Good" trade deals are about the facilitation of more transactions given that governments rightly or wrongly judge an economy by a value of all its transactions.

Right, so how does leaving participation in multilateral trade agreements that allow for the facilitation of transactions help us out economically?

[Honey Honey]

7 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Right, so how does leaving participation in multilateral trade agreements that allow for the facilitation of transactions help us out economically?

Who is trying to do that then? Even no deal is posited as a strategy to bring about trade negotiation. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

14 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

Who is trying to do that then? Even no deal is posited as a strategy to bring about trade negotiation. 

If we leave the EU, we abandon existing trade agreements we have that were negotiated with the EU - new trade deals will need to be made by necessity, but getting as good of a deals in hypothetical counterparts is significantly less likely. A trade deal with Japan & the EU (multilateral) vs a trade deal with Japan & the UK (bilateral).

There are a lot of advantages to multilateral trade agreements that facilitate more trade between nations. Avoidance of tariffs is a big one & they facilitates trade between more nations (because more nations are parties).

Bilateral trade agreements are easier to negotiate (fewer parties), but for Britain’s case it stands a good chance of making us a less appealing trade partner than trading with the entirety of the EU.

So if we leave the EU, we are leaving our multilateral trade agreements.

[Honey Honey]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If we leave the EU, we abandon existing trade agreements we have that were negotiated with the EU - new trade deals will need to be made by necessity, but getting as good of a deals in hypothetical counterparts is significantly less likely. A trade deal with Japan & the EU (multilateral) vs a trade deal with Japan & the UK (bilateral).

There are a lot of advantages to multilateral trade agreements that facilitate more trade between nations. Avoidance of tariffs is a big one & they facilitates trade between more nations (because more nations are parties).

Bilateral trade agreements are easier to negotiate (fewer parties), but for Britain’s case it stands a good chance of making us a less appealing trade partner than trading with the entirety of the EU.

So if we leave the EU, we are leaving our multilateral trade agreements.

I believe member states parliaments did not have a veto over the EU - Japan deal that comes into force this year. It is therefore not multilateral. EU member states cannot create trade agreements which impact laws the EU has supremacy over and they cannot veto trade agreements the EU creates which do not impact domestic laws for which the member state has supremacy over. 

The EU is not a trade bloc, it has multiple competencies of a state. 

[Azeem]

19 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Adam Smith died a few centuries ago lads  The west has moved on from specialisation to highly complex diversification in a global supply chain operation of goods, services and capital.

In fact in the mobile phone of every member on here there is most likely a part created or designed in the UK. Complex products don't come from singular countries quite like wine does. 

 

This is common sense even a lot of parts of huge sofwares that we all use are made in Pakistan but nothing is made by Pakistan, and they can replace Pakistan if they find better labour somwhere else.

Tell me something that is made by UK not in UK ?

Edited January 24, 2019 by Azeem

[Honey Honey]

Just now, Azeem said:

This is common sense even a lot of parts of huge sofwares are made in Pakistan but nothing is made by Pakistan, and they can replace Pakistan if they find better labour somwhere else.

Tell me something that is made by UK not in UK ?

You'll have to elaborate on the difference between by a country and in a country.

[Azeem]

13 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

You'll have to elaborate on the difference between by a country and in a country.

Samsung is a South Korean multinational brand. Sure the designer of the next model might be British but if something goes wrong between UK and South Korea they might close all their productions line in UK depending how nationalistic they are in industry

[Azeem]

For example 

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, Azeem said:

Samsung is a South Korean multinational brand. Sure the designer of the next model might be British but if something goes wrong between UK and South Korea they might close all their productions line in UK depending how nationalistic they are in industry

The wider UK is intertwined with far more than just one country so the shock would only be felt at a micro level in smaller communities whose ability to absorb said shock would be dependent on its own local economies diversification or the wider economies ability to create alternative opportunities. It happens on a daily basis outside of your trade hypothetical, jobs come and go with technological disruption.

There would also be a hit to Samsung's market capitalisation and it would be weakened against it's international competitors. 

[Azeem]

4 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

 

There would also be a hit to Samsung's market capitalisation and it would be weakened against it's international competitors. 

That's bound to happen but the question is what UK provides to Samsung no other country can provide ? Or they can at a better cost ?

Edited January 24, 2019 by Azeem

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Harvsky said:

I believe member states parliaments did not have a veto over the EU - Japan deal that comes into force this year. It is therefore not multilateral. EU member states cannot create trade agreements which impact laws the EU has supremacy over and they cannot veto trade agreements the EU creates which do not impact domestic laws for which the member state has supremacy over. 

The EU is not a trade bloc, it has multiple competencies of a state. 

It was a hypothetical example, but I disagree that the EU is not a trade block.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/Japan-and-EU-form-world-s-largest-free-trade-bloc2

The EU is not a country, trading with the EU means by definition means trading with multiple countries, you can’t just call it bilateral trade because you don’t want it to be a multilateral trade agreement. I fundamentally disagree the the EU has the competencies of a state. And if it does, it’s even more ridiculous we elected eroskeptics to the MEP who instead of representing us decided to take a fat EU salary to just stick 2 fingers up to the EU. 

That’s why you’ve got Fox demanding we replicate existing EU trade deals, because otherwise we’ll have to start trade negotiations over bilaterally from scratch and we simply do not have the same bargaining strength.

 

[Honey Honey]

17 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It was a hypothetical example, but I disagree that the EU is not a trade block.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_bloc

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/Japan-and-EU-form-world-s-largest-free-trade-bloc2

The EU is not a country, trading with the EU means by definition means trading with multiple countries, you can’t just call it bilateral trade because you don’t want it to be a multilateral trade agreement. I fundamentally disagree the the EU has the competencies of a state. And if it does, it’s even more ridiculous we elected eroskeptics to the MEP who instead of representing us decided to take a fat EU salary to just stick 2 fingers up to the EU. 

That’s why you’ve got Fox demanding we replicate existing EU trade deals, because otherwise we’ll have to start trade negotiations over bilaterally from scratch and we simply do not have the same bargaining strength.

 

The single market is a trade bloc not the EU. I can't be bothered going into detail on the competencies and trappings of the EU which are above and beyond just a trade agreement. The flag, the anthem, the army, the identity. This isn't NAFTA of EFTA.

It also does a disservice to what people are trying to build with the EU.

 

17 hours ago, Azeem said:

That's bound to happen but the question is what UK provides to Samsung no other country can provide ? Or they can at a better cost ?

There is nothing in a Samsung product that can only be provided by a single country.  It's just not relevant to the modern world.

[Dr. Gonzo]

It’s an economic and political union - not just a trade block and I never said that. NATO has a flag too, but it’s also not a country, same with ISIS and they have an army too.

The single market is part of what the EU is. If we cannot remain in the single market like Norway or Switzerland Brexit will definitely mean we leave our multilateral trade agreements.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Dr. Gonzo

[Honey Honey]

49 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It’s an economic and political union - not just a trade block and I never said that. NATO has a flag too, but it’s also not a country, same with ISIS and they have an army too.

The single market is part of what the EU is. If we cannot remain in the single market like Norway or Switzerland Brexit will definitely mean we leave our multilateral trade agreements.

The use of trade bloc, economic and political union obfuscates, either deliberately or not, that the EU possesses some core competencies and identities traditionally reserved for the nation state. 

Economic and political union could be used to describe or deny the existence of every single country on earth.

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Harvsky said:

The use of trade bloc, economic and political union obfuscates, either deliberately or not, that the EU possesses some core competencies and identities traditionally reserved for the nation state. 

Economic and political union could be used to describe or deny the existence of every single country on earth.

Specifically what core competencies and identities?

As far as I can tell the single market is what makes the EU most like a nation state. Freedom to travel and work without a visa, trade without tariffs among member nations, shit like that. And obviously they can mandate binding laws onto member states.

There’s also plenty that doesn’t make it a country. It doesn’t have a unified “domestic” policy - because it’s made up of member states. It doesn’t have a unified foreign policy at all either. And the fact that all member states do recognise each other’s sovereignty is another big factor.

Either way, my point was if leaving the EU means leaving behind the single market and thus leaving behind mutually beneficial multilateral trade agreements... it’s going to hurt us on trade. And if we’re to remain in the single market, we will lose still be subject to EU mandates... while losing our ability to participate in deciding what those mandates are.