Premier League 2022/23 - Race for Europe

[Stan]

Well and truly into the run-in now...

Table as it stands:

Arsenal and Man City continue to battle for the title. Likely that it'll be between Newcastle/Man Utd/Tottenham for the last 2 Champions League spots. And then the remaining 4, including Villa who have come out of nowhere under Emery to fly into 6th (!), to choose from for the Europa League & Europa Conference League spots. Brighton have the advantage of 2 games in hand over some of their rivals.

 

Below are the remaining fixtures for April...

Home fixtures in Bold
Away fixtures in Italics
Fixtures against a team also in the top 9 are underlined

[Honey Honey]

Think we need 19 points from the last 27 to guarantee it. So can only afford to drop points in 3 of the last 9 games. Big ask.

Though our goal difference could be the extra point needed in the end.

[OrangeKhrush]

5 hours ago, Honey Honey said:

Think we need 19 points from the last 27 to guarantee it. So can only afford to drop points in 3 of the last 9 games. Big ask.

Though our goal difference could be the extra point needed in the end.

I think mid to high 60s for 4th, right now it's about being professional.  The Brentford result was a professional performance needed at the business end of the season.

 

[...Dan]

Man City are on fire and I don't see them slowing down. As I said on discord, the Liverpool match was a must win for us and we threw it away. The pressure is going to be on us every match and we can't afford any more slip ups. We pretty much need to be perfect from here. We need maximum points from the matches we should be winning, we need to avoid defeat at the Etihad, and we probably need to beat Newcastle away. It's going to be incredibly difficult, I just pray that the 2 matches per week City will be playing will catch up with them.

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I think mid to high 60s for 4th, right now it's about being professional.  The Brentford result was a professional performance needed at the business end of the season.

 

Mid 60s would be Tottenham only getting 11pts from 8 games. No chance. They have 17 in their last 8. There's no 8 game spell they've ever got a points tally that low this season I don't think.

[CaaC (John)+]

United's not safe yet in 4th place and I am getting a bit of the jitters that Spurs under a new manager will get back to winning ways again and make @Storts have wet dreams as United might miss out on the 4th spot.

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, CaaC (John) said:

United's not safe yet in 4th place and I am getting a bit of the jitters that Spurs under a new manager will get back to winning ways again and make @Storts have wet dreams as United might miss out on the 4th spot.

they may not get one until next season

[Stan]

Sorry Arsenal fans, I have Man City down as winning the title based on doing this predictor:

 

Brighton & Villa get European football, as do Liverpool qualifying for Europa League. Newcastle get CL football!

[OrangeKhrush]

Brighton need to Baton the hatches as they are going to get raided like a crack house in the summer.  De Zerbi has a get put clause that could see him leave for a bigger opportunity.  Caicedo is going somewhere as there are 5 teams interested in him, Mac Allister will go to and possibly Ferguson and Mitomo.   it's going to be a wild summer

[Lucas]

Apparently City will have their rearranged game at Brighton pencilled in on the last midweek available of the season.

Brighton away followed by Brentford away on the last day, that's not the easiest couple of fixtures to clinch a title you know, especially not knowing how much the two Madrid games will take out of them.

I think if Arsenal can snatch a draw at the Etihad, this is really on for them still.

[OrangeKhrush]

Our remaining games:

Spurs (H)

Everton (A)

Southampton (H)

Arsenal (H)

Leeds (A)

Brighton (H)

Leicester (H)

Chelsea (A)

Conservative predictions W,D,W,L,D,D,W,W =15 points 

That will get us to 71 points. 

[Happy Blue]

On 20/04/2023 at 20:18, Lucas said:

Apparently City will have their rearranged game at Brighton pencilled in on the last midweek available of the season.

Brighton away followed by Brentford away on the last day, that's not the easiest couple of fixtures to clinch a title you know, especially not knowing how much the two Madrid games will take out of them.

I think if Arsenal can snatch a draw at the Etihad, this is really on for them still.

We need to win tonight to give us that cushion. i think Arsenal will struggle at Newcastle on current form

[OrangeKhrush]

On 25/04/2023 at 09:12, Happy Blue said:

We need to win tonight to give us that cushion. i think Arsenal will struggle at Newcastle on current form

I want us to go in with the same intensity as last season's game.  After the 2 Jan game and the personal snipes at us by Arteta has left a poor taste in our mouths.   it was petulant and needless but hope it serves as motivation in the same way Ten Hag's comments became fuel for that win 2 weeks ago.

[Happy Blue]

6 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I want us to go in with the same intensity as last season's game.  After the 2 Jan game and the personal snipes at us by Arteta has left a poor taste in our mouths.   it was petulant and needless but hope it serves as motivation in the same way Ten Hag's comments became fuel for that win 2 weeks ago.

Your battling for a CL place so no doubt you will be up for it. if Arsenal lose tonight they will probably bottle it and give up 

[Stan]

 

 

[OrangeKhrush]

On reflection of the season there are 5 games that I will look back on as lost opportunities:

1)Crystal Palace 3/9/22 0-0 

https://www.sofascore.com/crystal-palace-newcastle-united/hO

This was the game with the dubious ruled out goal when Mitchell shoved Willock into the Keeper.   We dominated the game and Palace's keeper made 5 or 6 top saves, we hit the post twice in that game as well. 

xG: 2.83 v 1.01

2)Bournemouth 17/9/22 1-1

https://www.sofascore.com/bournemouth-newcastle-united/Okb

Another game we dominated as the momentum bar showed,  Bournemouth hardly got the ball out their half.

xG: 1.93 v 0.75

3) Leeds United 31/12/22 0-0

https://www.sofascore.com/newcastle-united-leeds-united/JsO

xG 2.19 v 0.32

This game we produced 7 big chances and failed to score with their keeper having a worldy and we also hit the post twice. 

4) Crystal Palace 21/1/23 0-0

https://www.sofascore.com/crystal-palace-newcastle-united/hO

xG: 1.25 v 0.3

Palace's only shot was that world class stop by Pope that would have been the definition of snatch and grab,  a Game where the momentum bar tells the story,  we were using Selhurst Park like a home away from home, but this game was one of the games in that Jan/Feb where we dominated a lot of games and failed to score. 

5)Bournemouth 11/2/23 1-1

https://www.sofascore.com/bournemouth-newcastle-united/Okb

Another frustrating game,  like Palace we had three draws to Bournemouth a team that parked the bus and made it hard to break them down,  we did produce a lot of big chances but again February was a cruel month this was a game in that 3 goals in 8 run, which really set our season back. Outside the Villa game this was probably going to be our worst game of the season. 

This run was the build up into the Cup final,  which saw us lose 3 in a row including the final.   Since the cup final though we have picked up 24 of 30 points available,  scoring 26 and conceding 12. 

 

[Stan]

Final month, plenty of games left to play.

Top 2 is sorted already, and it's likely that Man City will go on to win the title.
3rd and 4th is pretty much sorted too, especially as Newcastle and Man Utd will have games in hand over Liverpool, their closest challengers. 

European Conference League is attainable for Brentford, but Brighton have several games in hand to work with to displace Liverpool/Tottenham, or even prevent Villa getting 5th/6th...

 

 

Aston Villa vs Brighton on the final day looks intriguing...

[OrangeKhrush]

23 hours ago, Stan said:

Final month, plenty of games left to play.

Top 2 is sorted already, and it's likely that Man City will go on to win the title.
3rd and 4th is pretty much sorted too, especially as Newcastle and Man Utd will have games in hand over Liverpool, their closest challengers. 

European Conference League is attainable for Brentford, but Brighton have several games in hand to work with to displace Liverpool/Tottenham, or even prevent Villa getting 5th/6th...

 

 

Aston Villa vs Brighton on the final day looks intriguing...

having points on board is better than games in hand, especially in the dog days of the season.   

[Stan]

 

 

 

- If Man Utd draw/win today they confirm a top 4 place, but also prevent Liverpool from getting Champions League. Even if Chelsea, win, they'll have another chance on Sunday to secure top 4.
- Liverpool have to beat Southampton & hope Man Utd lose both games in order to get top 4

- Aston Villa just have to match Tottenham & Brentford results to secure a place in the Europa Conference League
- Tottenham have to draw and hope Villa lose & Brentford don't win to get to 7th
- Brentford have to win and hope Villa & Spurs draw/lose to get to 7th. 

[Lucas]

It would be nice to see Villa back in Europe. Used to be quite regular in the 90's when they won a couple cups and finished high enough in the table.

To be fair, I don't think it would be a bad thing for Spurs to miss out. They need to get their house in serious order next season and concentrate on getting stronger in the league, that should be their bread and butter.