Dan's Tipping Game

[Stan]

On 20/10/2023 at 14:23, Stan said:

 

Across all Championship games tomorrow. 

Fail. 

[...Dan]

5 hours ago, ...Dan said:

RKC (1.60) v Volendam

Troyes (2.00) v Concarneau

£10 returns £32.

 

RKC win, Troyes go down to ten men after 15 minutes, miss a penalty, and draw 0-0

[RandoEFC+]

I'll have Barcelona -1.0 vs Athletic Club tonight and Tottenham -1.0 vs Fulham tomorrow.

Can't log in to bet365 so apologies for the clunky screenshots.

Barcelona -1 @ 2.15

Tottenham -1 @ 1.725

Double pays out @ 3.71

[RandoEFC+]

On 22/10/2023 at 10:05, RandoEFC said:

Barcelona -1 @ 2.15

Tottenham -1 @ 1.725

Double pays out @ 3.71

+£7.25

Slow and steady .

[Dan+]

Some good work boys. Will get a table up tomorrow hopefully if I get time. I lost once again.

[Dan+]

I want to back Leicester but feel like I can't. My record is just too bad and I've coaxed some absolutely nonsense outcomes already this season.

I do think Leicester to win and under 4.5 goals at 19/20 is a fantastic price tonight - given we're 1/2 just to win.

[Dan+]

On 17/10/2023 at 00:13, Dan said:

WEEK 11 - FISH PIES ALL ROUND

It appears my spreadsheet is corrupted. Why is there a load of green everywhere?

Week 11 becomes the best week we have had as a forum by quite a distance. We owe this largely however to the bet of @Pyfish who lands a league best profit of £77.50 with his extremely impressive double. He was made to sweat by Northern Ireland and San Marino after the hosts rushed into an early 2-0 lead, but the game largely petered out and they only added a 3rd at the death. Lincoln suffered a rare home loss to an improving Burton meaning he lands the juicy win, and meaning he will be in profit for another 4 weeks at absolute worst regardless.

@Machado is the subject in early week 12 controversy, and I have decided as a one-off as it may not have been clear that he can take his pick again as the week works from Tuesday to Monday on this, and he picked another game from the time period of week 11. I do it from Tuesday to Monday because of Monday night football games which are usually from the weekend before, and to me Monday to Tuesday does mark the new week. We'll call it a lucky escape. Luckily though for week 11 he claimed his 4th win in 6 picks, delving into the depths of the Turkish Cup to go against an out of sorts Denizlispor and go for a dour game between two teams who produce very little.

A word on @CaaC (John) though. Bloody hell. He was extremely unlucky this week and as I'd previously stated, if he'd landed a winner this week he would've finished the season, at absolute worst, assuming he lost every other remaining week - £260ish up. Turkey was a big pick and in-fact, the best single priced winner chosen all season. Scotland, we all saw what happened, extremely unlucky to not take the lead in the second half and ended up losing the game 2-0. It's unfortunately a loss this week though, and he drops in the table along with 4 others.

@RandoEFC lands another winner on the handicaps. Poland making trickier work of it with their 0-2 win in the Faroe Islands, but Portugal absolutely obliterated an abject Bosnia and the game was 0-5 by half time.

This puts him above @Stan who loses for a fifth straight week and down to his worst overall position of the season. I think you have to sympathise again here, as of his six legs of the double, five of them won at an absolute canter, he was just let down by the lack of cards in Swindon's win over Newport. Pretty unlucky again for me. @Lucas drops into the extremely low reaches of the English game, but Warrington Rylands cost him what would've been a solid win that put him back near to breakeven.

It's eleven, it's heaven. For the fucking bookies. I mean to be honest I'm not particularly angry this week, I think my logic was correct and I am a firm believer that with correctly applied logic, wins will find you. It was a pretty long shot and it came extremely close. I think under 4.5 goals is a bit of a hack. Under 4.5 goals was 8/11 as a single, yet combined with the almost certain outcome of a Northern Ireland win it boosted it pretty handily. Luxembourg's performance in Iceland wasn't brilliant, the first half was abject but they equalised immediately after half time. I think the sickening aspect here is that they missed an open goal in the 93rd minute. Such is the way for me this season. Something will land soon. I've had a pretty productive last three days on actual bets so I think it has to really.

It's our best week of the season though, largely because of Pyfish, but good choices from most people and even the losers came extremely close. Back to a proper week of the calendar for the upcoming week. Probably a delayed table from me though as I'm landing back from Norway late on Monday night. Going to watch Lillestrom v Valerenga - might even have to include something from that game on this.

 

WEEK 11 STATS
Winning bets: 3/7 (42.9%)
Winning selections: 10/14 (71.43%)
Weekly forum position: +£61.24 (ranked 1st out of 11)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 18/78 (23%)
Winning selections: 67/149 (44.97%)
Total forum position: -£230.64

WEEK 12 - NOT BAD AT ALL

Probably had the gloss taken off it by how well last week went, but this week turns in yet another solid performance and is second to only last week, with both the third and fourth best wins of the season both landing this time out.

@Pyfish is absolutely on fire, with two good wins in a row meaning he's now absolutely miles in front at the top of the table, and no matter what now he will be in profit at Christmas. Knowledge on League Two is coming in handy as the utterly inept Tranmere are swatted away even by Doncaster. Salah being evens to score against Everton at home feels unbelievably big as well, so that's a good spot.

@Machado went early with his bet this week, was offered a reprieve but didn't take it. Russia failing to beat Kenya in a friendly cost him what would've been his biggest win of the season - £12

@CaaC (John) becomes the first player this season to bet on a game that was later postponed. This voided the Ipswich selection and just turned it into a single on Preston, but unfortunately they couldn't beat newly managerless Millwall at home. Should you have gone for the Ipswich win as a single, or if somebody is to pick two games that are both postponed (which is possible given this page does like to play in the lower leagues of England) then the bet would be voided and you would get an extra one to use, but as Preston didn't win, unfortunately this can't be offered this time and it is just a loser.

@Lucas takes in his second win of the season and a pretty good one to boot - another where the odds look very generous in hindsight. Bet builders can be the way to go a lot of the time I think. He climbs two places, and hits his best actual position of the season in terms of overall balance.

@RandoEFC's asian handicaps again save him from a loss should he have gone for a flat out -1 handicap, as Barcelona could only manage the 1-0 win over Athletic. Tottenham made no mistake against Fulham though, so it's a small win, and he becomes the first player to land 5 wins this season.

@Stan's bad run continues, six losses in a row and this one frankly got nowhere near, with only 24 goals scored and to be honest after that I couldn't be bothered to work out how many corners there were. Wouldn't surprise me if that was the lowest scoring day of the season in the Championship, it's had loads of goals this season and that's pretty tame, with a 0-0 and four 1-0s. Not his day.

@...Dan loses 10/10 and let down as stated earlier by Troyes who had both an early red card and then went on to miss a penalty in a draw. One of the most infuriating losses yet, particularly after RKC Waalwijk had done the business.

I make it 12 defeats from 12, missing both of my games by a goal which was annoying. Once again I was torn on my selection on Gillingham Notts County, I fancied an away win but thought it reeked of goals more. I went to Lillestrom v Valerenga and to be honest I don't think Valerenga would've scored if they were still playing. They were abject, embarrassing and a horrible showing for their local derby. I don't suppose anybody happened to catch the banner at that game that did the rounds? Depicting their manager Geir Bakke as a rat following moving from Lillestrom during the season, a move which hasn't yet aged well. Good experience though going over there, another country ticked off.

I suppose the only thing even more perverse than my record is the one who didn't predict went up a place and somebody who actually won a bet went down, but such is the way. It's a pretty good week on the whole.

WEEK 12 STATS
Winning bets: 3/8
Winning selections: 7/13
Weekly forum position: +£31.91 (2nd/12)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 21/86
Winning selections: 74/162
Total forum position: -£198.73

[Stan]

6 hours ago, Dan said:

@Stan's bad run continues, six losses in a row and this one frankly got nowhere near, with only 24 goals scored and to be honest after that I couldn't be bothered to work out how many corners there were. Wouldn't surprise me if that was the lowest scoring day of the season in the Championship, it's had loads of goals this season and that's pretty tame, with a 0-0 and four 1-0s. Not his day.

 

For what it's worth, there were 125

I think in each of those 6 weeks I've missed out on one 'line' of the bet. Frustrating!

[Dan+]

5 hours ago, Stan said:

For what it's worth, there were 125

I think in each of those 6 weeks I've missed out on one 'line' of the bet. Frustrating!

You've definitely been quite unlucky I think. Lots of yours have gotten pretty close and just one of them land you're probably 2nd in the table so I don't think you're far off personally. That being said the goals pick was miles off. But then even that - this season the Championship is averaging 2.77 goals a game, so 11 games at that rate in theory should produce 30/31 goals and there being only 24 is pretty harsh.

I see the one that I put in here but didn't actually have did win. I really do like the under 4.5 goals angle - think it's certainly worth getting on for our home games as we normally always win but teams don't generally leave themselves open here like they do away. We haven't actually conceded a goal at home since Hull. I'm not risking it against QPR though, they really are that bad.

[Stan]

14 minutes ago, Dan said:

I see the one that I put in here but didn't actually have did win. I really do like the under 4.5 goals angle - think it's certainly worth getting on for our home games as we normally always win but teams don't generally leave themselves open here like they do away. We haven't actually conceded a goal at home since Hull. I'm not risking it against QPR though, they really are that bad.

1-0 QPR win incoming  

[Dan+]

10 minutes ago, Stan said:

1-0 QPR win incoming  

I'm 'too' confident for that game to be honest. If we lose there I don't think I can ever trust again.

[Pyfish+]

Riding my luck a little bit here but genuinely shocked at how Dortmund are priced THAT high to win. Both teams are in good form so I'd expect the odds to be lower. It's a risk but I can afford to do that at this stage.

Dortmund @ 5.50
Atletico @1.75
9.63 = £96.25

[Dan+]

1 hour ago, Pyfish said:

Riding my luck a little bit here but genuinely shocked at how Dortmund are priced THAT high to win. Both teams are in good form so I'd expect the odds to be lower. It's a risk but I can afford to do that at this stage.

Dortmund @ 5.50
Atletico @1.75
9.63 = £96.25

I'm quite pro Newcastle in this game and I think part of it is because I had exactly the same thought pattern about PSG - but I do agree with you that 5.50 is quite juicy. Dortmund seem to be widely not rated, including by myself to be honest, but they do keep getting the results.

Newcastle are really quite good though. They've been performing like a top side for 18 months now.

[Pyfish+]

Atletico are the ones letting me down currently. At half time, Dortmund are winning 1-0 whilst Atletico are trailing 2-1 to Celtic.

[Stan]

Very unlucky @Pyfish! Got the big one in with Dortmund.

Rodgers ruins someone's day once again. 

[Pyfish+]

Damn Celtic. 

[Dan+]

That is extremely unlucky. I thought Atletico were a great price tonight.

I couldn't remember who you had doubled them with so that is a real shame. If you'd landed that then I wonder how far off guaranteed end of season profit you'd have been.

[Machado]

Over 1.5 match goals

Under 3.5 match goals

[Dan+]

Can attempt 13 be the lucky one?

Stuttgart v Hoffenheim - Away win @ 11/4 (3.75) - This is very much a gamble but I'm that far back now that I think it's worth taking a couple of punts to get back to some sort of respectability. This is very much a trend bucker, but my reason for this is that Hoffenheim have won 4/4 away games this season and Stuttgart, while the surprise package with 7 wins from their 8 games.. well their 7 wins have been against Freiburg (8th), Wolfsburg (9th), Darmstadt (12th), Union Berlin, Koln, Bochum and Mainz (the bottom four) and their other game, against 5th placed RB Leipzig, they lost 5-1. Not just this, but Serhou Guirassy, responsible for 14 of their 25 goals is out. This to me makes them a very risky pick and actually worth even getting against.

Manchester United v Manchester City - Away win and under 4.5 goals @ 19/20 (1.95) - Anyone who has followed what I put in here is a fool will know how often I go with the under 4.5 goals angle. Man Utd have picked up a bit in the last three games but I'm not sold at all, they have beaten three sides, the last two in particular that they are vastly superior to and only just gotten the job done. Man City aren't quite the swashbuckling force of last season yet, but that can only really feed into the under 4.5 angle and I think they're still enough better to get the win here. As I've done this on 365 bet builder - the instance where Man City going 2 goals up but drawing 2-2 would also be settled as a winner, albeit that's the only other score that can win here due to under 4.5 goals.

£10 returns £73.21.

[Lucas]

Slight gamble.

Accrington Stanley to win, BTTS (v Colchester) (13/4)

Chesterfield to beat Kidderminster (7/10)

£10 wins £72.25

Edited October 27, 2023 by Lucas

[RandoEFC+]

Brighton -1.0 vs Fulham @ 1.89

Juventus -1.0 vs Verona @ 1.55

Double pays out @ 2.93

[Stan]

[Stan]

23 hours ago, Dan said:

Stuttgart v Hoffenheim - Away win @ 11/4 (3.75) - This is very much a gamble but I'm that far back now that I think it's worth taking a couple of punts to get back to some sort of respectability. This is very much a trend bucker, but my reason for this is that Hoffenheim have won 4/4 away games this season and Stuttgart, while the surprise package with 7 wins from their 8 games.. well their 7 wins have been against Freiburg (8th), Wolfsburg (9th), Darmstadt (12th), Union Berlin, Koln, Bochum and Mainz (the bottom four) and their other game, against 5th placed RB Leipzig, they lost 5-1. Not just this, but Serhou Guirassy, responsible for 14 of their 25 goals is out. This to me makes them a very risky pick and actually worth even getting against.

Hoffenheim up 2-0  

[...Dan]

£10 on Man City to win returns £16.66.

[Stan]

Fucked it with the Benfica pick. FFS.