Dan's Tipping Game

[RandoEFC+]

On 21/12/2023 at 21:00, RandoEFC said:

Two away teams for me this time.

Queen's Park are in stinking form and winless in 12 since they won their first three games of the season. They've lost 4 of their last 6 at home, 3 of those by more than a goal. They host promotion chasing Dundee Utd who suffered their first league defeat of the season just last weekend. Relegated from the Premier League last season, Dundee Utd have won 6 of their 7 away games so far this season, only failing at league leaders Raith, and 4 of those wins have been by more than a goal. Dundee Utd also won their previous meeting this season 4-1. Surprised by this price to be honest.

My second pick is a much shorter price but the best price of any of my 'dead certs' for the next few days of football. Eupen are on a run of just 1 win in 13 and have slipped into the Belgian Pro League relegation spots after a strong start to the season. 7 of their 10 losses during this run have been by 2 or more goals. Union Saint Gilloise are flying with 11 wins and a draw from their last 12 games putting them 8 points clear at the top of the league. They've won by more than a goal in 4 of their last 6 away games and, like Dundee Utd, can brag a 4-1 win against this opponent earlier on this season.

A poor 0-0 draw at Queen's Park for Dundee Utd puts me on -£10. Union Saint Gilloise won at Eupen but only by a goal anyway.

[Stan]

@Dan what's the bonus again? Straight £25 on top of normal £10 for this week? 

 

[RandoEFC+]

I'll take this for the next week and fuck it you can put the £25 down.

16/18 of Burnley's league games have seen 9 or more corners this season. Liverpool have in 15/18 and have had 7, 8, 8 in the games that didn't hit 9. This bet has also hit in all of their past six meetings.

Ipswich have scored at least twice in all of their 11 home games this season. They've also conceded in 9 out of 11. Leicester have scored in 10 of their 11 away games this season and have kept just two clean sheets, one of those all the way back in the first away game of the season. The stats on this make a mockery of the price but there is a slight concern that it'll be a cagey affair between the top two in the league or that Leicester might blow Ipswich away like Leeds did yesterday but I'm hoping Ipswich are a bit more competitive with home advantage.

£25 > £56.35 if it wins.

[Dan+]

5 hours ago, Stan said:

@Dan what's the bonus again? Straight £25 on top of normal £10 for this week? 

 

Basically in one week you can replace a £10 stake with a £25 one. Doesn't have to be this week. Would be well advised for you to have not used it on the weekend just gone

[Stan]

Fuck it why not

Win, win either way (as I'd also be happy with a draw at theirs) 

[Dan+]

5 hours ago, Stan said:

Fuck it why not

Win, win either way (as I'd also be happy with a draw at theirs) 

I might just have the same on a draw to secure the guaranteed win.

[RandoEFC+]

On 24/12/2023 at 10:58, RandoEFC said:

I'll take this for the next week and fuck it you can put the £25 down.

16/18 of Burnley's league games have seen 9 or more corners this season. Liverpool have in 15/18 and have had 7, 8, 8 in the games that didn't hit 9. This bet has also hit in all of their past six meetings.

Ipswich have scored at least twice in all of their 11 home games this season. They've also conceded in 9 out of 11. Leicester have scored in 10 of their 11 away games this season and have kept just two clean sheets, one of those all the way back in the first away game of the season. The stats on this make a mockery of the price but there is a slight concern that it'll be a cagey affair between the top two in the league or that Leicester might blow Ipswich away like Leeds did yesterday but I'm hoping Ipswich are a bit more competitive with home advantage.

£25 > £56.35 if it wins.

Exactly 8 corners at Turf Moor .

[Dan+]

Don't half wish I'd lashed this in here. I could not leave this price on Leeds to do this after they'd just produced their best result of the season:

[CaaC (John)+]

@Dan, I'm getting lost now with this game 

What week is it and have I picked one for whatever week or have I got to pick some teams?  

[Dan+]

Sorry, there is a table coming shortly. This week runs from Tues 26th December to Monday 2nd January.

[Dan+]

On 20/12/2023 at 00:54, Dan said:

WEEK 20 - MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

 

WEEK 20 STATS
Winning bets: 2/6
Winning selections: 4/10
Weekly forum position: £14.79 (Ranked 8/20)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 37/143
Winning selections: 124/270
Total forum position: -£326.27

 

I'm slacking a little on these table updates lately but can actually delve into what went right and wrong this time out. As it turns out, it was a pretty mediocre week with the balance taking a small hit and as ever, me losing.

None of the top three played this week, although incase you miss it @Pyfish @Machado @Storts I have decided that as the game Christmas present everybody gets one £25 bet to use during the season instead of the usual £10. Call it the equivalent of triple captain. You are not obliged to use it as of course, should you use it on a loser, you will be taking an even heavier hit, but it should add an interesting angle.

We have a new smallest winner of the season in @CaaC (John) - quite the difference from the lottery tickets he was buying early season, although not entirely by design. Chelsea beat Sheffield United at odds of just 2/11 (1.18) and Bournemouth's game with Luton was abandoned following what happened to Tom Lockyer. Grim circumstances all round and all the best of luck to him, although I'm almost certain he'll be forced into retirement now. Bournemouth v Luton is settled as void and you get the win for Chelsea.

The form player of recent weeks however is @...Dan who takes the biggest win for the third time in four weeks and rises to a season high of 5th in the table. With a clear knowledge of Ligue 2 it's about time this sort of bet started paying dividends even if it is a league I find myself trying to avoid at all costs. Caen beating Dunkerque 1-0 and Angers running out 1-4 winners at Troyes.

The only two winners of the weekend however. I have to sympathise with @RandoEFC picking two what appeared to be absolute bankers to at least win their games, but in what's probably the upset of the season we've been on the end of on this forum, Doxa beat Aris Limassol 2-0 to take their tally up to 4 points from 15 games for the season. A genuine shock of a result and really one of those situations you just can't really legislate for. A freak loss. Doxa were 11/1 to win the game at home prematch.

@Stan makes the seasons first foray into the women's game and isn't rewarded. What has to be considered another pretty shock result judging by the odds was Tottenham's 1-0 win over Arsenal at 7/1, but importantly for the bet, a loss as it got nowhere near the 4 goals required. Plymouth didn't disappoint at home to Rotherham, picking up yet another victory in Devon which has seen them rewarded with losing their manager to the football black hole of Stoke City, and scoring 3 times in the process.

@Lucas went for a couple of win and BTTS picks that I actually backed for real, and I'm in dreadful form of late so I should probably hand the £10 loss to myself. Brighton's first failure to score in any competition this season away to an increasingly tricky to break down Arsenal followed by Leverkusen shutting out Frankfurt in a 3-0 win. Both of them having great seasons and both are in serious contention for their leagues now. Leverkusen have never won it!

And as ever, I finish on myself. This one can be placed in the category of a loss that I can accept as it has helped Leicester for Ipswich to not beat Norwich at home and I'd much rather it have lost on that than them winning to nil, but my god, the statistical probabilities falling against me this season really are remarkable. I really do feel like whatever I have it will lose. That's also three times out of three where I've gone early on a selection and ended up losing - it isn't paying off.

This week runs up until Chistmas Day so anything from now until then - me and my mates like to have a group bet on Christmas Day for a bit of a laugh so there are some things going on in countries not celebrating Christmas. A few leagues beginning their winter break around now, so you may be forced into the dreaded EFL. Good luck!

WEEK 21 - THE NIGHTMARE BEFORE CHRISTMAS

WEEK 21 STATS
Winning bets: 0/5
Winning selections: 3/10
Weekly forum position: -£65.00 (Ranked 18/21)

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OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 37/148
Winning selections: 127/280
Total forum position: -£391.27

 

A slight delay in getting the table out here and I have to say, it really wasn't worth the wait, as we land our fourth worst weekend of the season with nobody collecting a win.

The biggest loser of the week, and season however is @Pyfish who becomes the first to use, and lose his £25 bonus bet, and it comes with the double whammy of it being courtesy of a Grimsby defeat at home to Harrogate. Mansfield delivered a 0-2 victory in the other leg, but Grimsby lose at home and the lead at the top is cut, and not courtesy of anybody winning.

@CaaC (John) was the only player to post two losers as neither Arsenal or Brighton could get wins in big away games, both managing 1-1 draws.

@RandoEFC has his third loss on the trot as Dundee United couldn't beat Queens Park to even secure the void, as Union St Gilloise fairly surprisingly for me only managed a 1-2 win at the leagues bottom side in Eupen. I'd have expected a much heavier win in that game I have to say.

@Stan comes the closest to picking a winner but the 3rd goal in Wrexham v Newport never arrives. It appears that Wrexham have reigned in the chaos somewhat, with the silly scorelines definitely slowing down somewhat, but an annoyance nontheless. Stockport beat Notts County 2-1 in the other game, so it came close.

And as per any post on the league table, it comes with a sob story from myself. Part of me is pissed off that I seem to have saved what feels like all of the abysmal luck for a public thread, but part of me also thinks it's a good job I'm not actually backing these and that I'm doing a lot better on the real thing. The Cheltenham pick was a bit of a blinder, their upturn under Darrell Clarke has been sensational frankly given how badly they started. Sampdoria, well I was right about the chaos factor, but it was over once they got a red card. They went 0-2 down early, got one back but then had Pajtim Kasami sent off. Brought it back to 2-2 in the second half, but conceded a late winner. Yet again I'm pretty sure without the red they probably go on to win the game, but sods law. This makes it a remarkably bad 20 losses in 21 weeks.

Easy to lose track as I have done here but week 22 runs from boxing day to Monday 2nd January - so you have absolutely loads to choose from as there is a full slate of the English leagues this weekend. The EFL are all playing Friday 29th and Monday 1st January while the Premier League runs a standard weekend. So there is plenty to work with.

[CaaC (John)+]

Week 22

Saturday 30th Dec - EPL
Aston Villa to beat Burnley

Scottish Premiership
Hearts of Midlothian to beat Ross County

 

[Pyfish+]

Fucked it.

[RandoEFC+]

I didn't realise I'd lost three in a row. Then I've gone and lost my £25 bet by a single corner. Going to be going some now to end the season anywhere near profitable.

[Stan]

[Dan+]

Aberdeen v St Mirren - Home win @ 1.90 (9/10) - This feels like a game where I'm catching a team on their upwards curve against one on their downwards curve. Aberdeen are 8th and St Mirren are 5th in the table, but I think Aberdeen have the naturally higher level and their underlying data does suggest an upturn was likely. They've won their last three home games in all competitions. St Mirren started brightly but they've lost six on the bounce away from home, and just 1 point in 8 away games. I think the price is just about good enough to get on Aberdeen here.

Juventus v Roma - Home win @ 2.05 (21/20) - I think the odds on a Juventus win here are simply way too big. There's a chasm between these two teams anyway which I think anybody who has a vague enough interest in Italian football will know, but when you throw in that Juventus have won this fixture in 12 of the last 14 seasons, that they have 20 points at home to Roma's 8 away from home (from 8 games each) and sit pretty handily above them in the table, I'm really quite surprised you're getting better than even money on it. One of the kindest prices I've seen in a while if my judgement is worth anything, which this thread tells you it might not be. But we shall see.

£10 returns £38.95.

Which of the two do we reckon are getting a first half red card?

[Stan]

13 hours ago, Stan said:

For God's sake.

[Dan+]

I really am not going to win ever again.

[RandoEFC+]

3 hours ago, Stan said:

For God's sake.

Still a winner on the first leg isn't it?

[Stan]

30 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Still a winner on the first leg isn't it?

Yeah. But the Atalanta one already failed beforehand. They only won 1-0.

[Pyfish+]

[Lucas]

Can I use my £25 bet please?

Going to put it on the Skybet boost.

Salah and Gordon 1 Shot on Target each and each to win 1 Foul.

6-1. £25 wins £175.

[Lucas]

2 hours ago, Lucas said:

Can I use my £25 bet please?

Going to put it on the Skybet boost.

Salah and Gordon 1 Shot on Target each and each to win 1 Foul.

6-1. £25 wins £175.

Blimey, its came in 

[Dan+]

Fucking hell fair play. Looks like there is hope yet. This is the sort of thing I'll need to land just to break even.

[Pyfish+]

10 hours ago, Lucas said:

Blimey, its came in 

Nice one!