Dan's Tipping Game

[RandoEFC+]

I'm going for the following this weekend:

Liverpool to beat Bournemouth but also be leading at half time. I think this is an absolute home banker and can see Liverpool winning quite handily. I find the HT/FT bet is a good one when the odds for a simple win are not worthwhile. Liverpool will be hungry to get their first win of the season and think they'll start fast here.

Chelsea to beat West Ham. I liked what I saw from Chelsea last weekend and reckon they'll get their first win of the season here.

£10 returns £33.68

[...Dan]

Let's go with two Friday night games so I can get the disappointment out of the way early

Andorra (1.90) v Cartagena

Leuven v Antwerp (1.66)

£10 returns £31.81.

 

[Dan+]

2 hours ago, ...Dan said:

Let's go with two Friday night games so I can get the disappointment out of the way early

Andorra (1.90) v Cartagena

Leuven v Antwerp (1.66)

£10 returns £31.81.

 

It's looking decent...

[Dan+]

Well that's me bust. Antwerp have bottled it as well. This page is a virtual money black hole.

[Stan]

My selections for tomorrow

 

Wrexham and Swindon - all their league games have had themselves and opposition scoring. Wrexham especially score and concede a lot. 

Crewe vs Walsall is a bit of a punt, but both their games this season have had plenty of goals and bookings. Corners could be the gamble...

[Dan+]

I've got both of those games on a BTTS so it bodes well. Or badly if you look through this thread.

[Stan]

7 hours ago, Dan said:

I've got both of those games on a BTTS so it bodes well. Or badly if you look through this thread.

Please cancel your bet. 

[RandoEFC+]

On 18/08/2023 at 10:23, RandoEFC said:

Liverpool to beat Bournemouth but also be leading at half time. I think this is an absolute home banker and can see Liverpool winning quite handily. I find the HT/FT bet is a good one when the odds for a simple win are not worthwhile. Liverpool will be hungry to get their first win of the season and think they'll start fast here.

Chelsea to beat West Ham. I liked what I saw from Chelsea last weekend and reckon they'll get their first win of the season here.

£10 returns £33.68

️️

[Stan]

ONE FUCKING BOOKING. 

That's all I needed in the Crewe game. Cunts. 

[Dan+]

Absolute tripe again. This page really is cursed. Still time for some others tomorrow.

[Pyfish+]

I feel slightly better that the second half of mine didn't come through either so!

[Dan+]

On 15/08/2023 at 00:42, Dan said:

I mean if last week was a nightmare then this was simply insomnia while in prison. A collective effort of £80 lost throughout the 8 players, with just 2 of the 16 selections coming off.

@Stan remains in profit due to his £10.40 win last week, his on paper safer picks not paying off this time around as MK Dons and Tranmere only produced 1 of the required 3 goals, and PSV produced possibly the narrowest ever victory in the Eredivisie with a 2-0 win over Utrecht.

@CaaC (John) enters the league 2nd out of 8 by pure default. His longest of long shots not coming off, though I did happen to notice both games had 4 goals. It's a good argument for not playing when you see how this has panned out.

Then we have @Pyfish and @...Dan who I've decided to put 3rd and 4th on the basis they both did actually land a selection. Pyfish comes in as probably the unluckiest player of the weekend as De Bruyne's early injury forced him off in a game they won comfortably, and it took Haaland a mammoth 4 minutes to get off the mark for the season. ...Dan did come very close as well, but Anges, who came down to 1.45 prematch couldn't find a goal as they only drew at home to Annecy. Bordeaux found one in their win over newly promoted Concarneau tonight in the 97th minute.

@Storts was disappointed to find I'd taken his idea before he managed to post it, but he needn't have worried as neither team could win, though neither lost. @RandoEFC suffering the double whammy of backing his own team and them losing (I make that three people already to back their own team to win a game they were favourites in and not win), and Manchester United couldn't win by more than a goal, though they were unbelievably lucky even by their standards to win at all.

@Lucas is put at the bottom of the table on odds difference I'll call it, picking the shortest priced double to land no winners, as the Championship minefield collects its latest victim, with Southampton and Watford both failing to win home games in which they were favourites.

It's been a pretty abject start so far with only one player in profit (don't spend all 40p of it at once!) and the forum collectively is well down.

Week 3 starts from now. There's plenty to work with this week - starting with a full round of League One / Two / National League games tonight, Champions League qualifiers, and the final of the major European Leagues (Bundesliga, Serie A) returning this weekend. We simply cannot get worse!

 

WEEK 2 STATS
Winning bets: 0/8 (0%)
Winning selections: 2/16 (12.5%)
Weekly forum position: -£80.00

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 1/15 (6.6%)
Winning selections: 6/29 (20.7%)
Total forum position: -£129.60

I think nothing is quite as telling about the performance levels being demonstrated here as the fact the two risers of the week were the ones who either forgot to bet or wisely chose to not bother (@Storts @CaaC (John)) as once again we have 100% of predictions falling. Not quite as bad as last week, but ultimately it's damage limitation.

Starting from the top, and the only profitable member is no more as @Stan is inches away from a second victory that would've taken him around £40 up. Wrexham v Swindon was so chaotic that it's even forced the Wrexham goalkeeper into retirement, I think it's safe to say you won't get a price as big as that on the same market for a Wrexham game for a long time, as their four games have averaged an astonishing 6.5 goals each. Crewe produced their third comeback from 0-2 down in four matches to get a 2-2 draw, the corners sailing in but the cards unfortunately not. Very unlucky this week.

@...Dan has also come close. My old Football Manager icons FC Andorra produced a 3-2 win over Cartagena, but Antwerp blew it late at Leuven to deny him a steady £21.50 win. He wasn't the only one done by Antwerp as I had them to win with over 1.5 goals in the game. Leuven's equaliser of course sealing one leg of the bet and breaking the other. Harry Kane naturally scored just the one.

@RandoEFClanded one of his selections but was let down by Chelsea in the other. I had Chelsea myself on Sunday as I'd been quite encouraged by their opener, but they folded similarly to last season. @Lucasonce again manages to pick two favourites who both go on to lose their game, while @Pyfishalso fails to land either of his selections after Man City come up short in the super cup in normal time, while Salah naturally scores, but neither the first or last goal, such is the way of the tipping game.

Onto the next week. We've got to start landing something soon surely. The stats make for grim reading!

 

WEEK 3 STATS
Winning bets: 0/6 (0%)
Winning selections: 3/12 (25%)
Weekly forum position: -£60.00

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 1/21 (4.8%)
Winning selections: 9/41 (22%)
Total forum position: -£189.60

[CaaC (John)+]

Oh well, try again, 2 bets, £5 each? (is that right?)

Saturday 26th August

EPL
Bournemouth 3-2 Spurs

SPFL
Ross County 2-2 Glasgow Rangers

[Dan+]

53 minutes ago, CaaC (John) said:

Oh well, try again, 2 bets, £5 each? (is that right?)

Saturday 26th August

EPL
Bournemouth 3-2 Spurs

SPFL
Ross County 2-2 Glasgow Rangers

£10 on both. May introduce where you can have two £5 singles though. Hmm.

[Pyfish+]

I'm loving @CaaC (John)'s braveness in betting on actual scorelines.

This week I'm going for the following:

Over 2.5 Goals (Total) - Chelsea v Luton - 1.47
Over 2.5 Goals (Total) - Sheffield United v Manchester City - 1.53

2.26 at £10 = £22.63 

[Lucas]

Gillingham to beat Colchester 5/6

Norwich to beat Huddersfield 5/4

£10 on @ 3.13-1 wins £41.25

(Skybet)

[Dan+]

15 hours ago, Lucas said:

Gillingham to beat Colchester 5/6

Norwich to beat Huddersfield 5/4

£10 on @ 3.13-1 wins £41.25

(Skybet)

Gillingham with 100% wins and Colchester with 100% defeats. I'm braced.

[Dan+]

My bet this week is...

Burton v Bolton (1.90) - Bolton had started the season fantastically but fell to a shock result by Wigan last week, though it had all the markings of a bit of a freak of a result, and Wigan have started really well too. I'd make Bolton far shorter to win this than what is offered and feel it's an overreaction to the Wigan result - particularly given how dreadful Burton have been so far in nearly every game, with just one point and one goal from their four games so far.

Botafogo v Bahia (1.70) - This price was actually higher before I put it on, and it's come down since, but it seems like giving money away to me. Botafogo are running away with the Brazilian league, have claimed 10 wins from 10 at home and face a Bahia side sat 16th out of 20 and with 6 points from their 10 away games (and only 4 goals scored). This is on the face of it an absolute banker home victory and I can only imagine it isn't being treated as such due to Botafogo's season having a bit of a surprise factor, as they weren't fancied to do this.

£10 returns £32.30.

[Stan]

14 minutes ago, Dan said:

Gillingham with 100% wins and Colchester with 100% defeats. I'm braced.

5/6 is pretty good odds though to be fair considering it's a 100% record either way. 

[Stan]

[Pyfish+]

Guaranteed that Barrow v Wrexham will be a one goaler after the last few games have been goalfests!

[Stan]

4 hours ago, Pyfish said:

Guaranteed that Barrow v Wrexham will be a one goaler after the last few games have been goalfests!

Do not say this! Heathen! 

[Dan+]

5 hours ago, Stan said:

5/6 is pretty good odds though to be fair considering it's a 100% record either way. 

They're good odds I agree. I think I will likely have it myself this weekend in some form. Though not entirely convinced they can sustain it scoring this few.

[Dan+]

8 hours ago, Stan said:

That price on the first game looks unbelievable. I'm weary of overreacting to outcome bias but their games are averaging 6.5 goals a game, following 3.46 a game on average last season. This is clearly partly by design and I think you've got to take goals in their games whenever offered it frankly.

They're massively underperforming at their own end, they seem to have concede from every other shot they face, but they are creating plenty.

[Dan+]

The weekend is here, get your bets in!