Dan's Tipping Game

[Machado]

Are we skipping the weekend fixtures or is this a two match day week?

[Dan+]

6 hours ago, Machado said:

Are we skipping the weekend fixtures or is this a two match day week?

I run it over a weekly period so you get your £10 single / double once a week, you can pick anything providing it's settled before Tuesday. Obviously now the internationals are done and nobody went for them.

[RandoEFC+]

I'll have these two for this week please:

£10 >

£0 if either Spurs or Barca fail to win.

£10 if they both win by exactly one goal.

£14 if Spurs win by more than 1 and Barca win by 1.

£15.50 if Spurs win by 1 and Barca win by more than 1.

£21.70 if both Spurs and Barca win by more than one goal.

Yes I like to be complicated .

[Dan+]

No more fucking about.

Lens v Metz (1.50) - Lens were fantastic at home last season and I still think even despite a weak start this year, they will come good again and this represents a very good opportunity, at home to arguably the leagues weakest side. They've started badly but I think the price has come up from what it really ought to be and it's largely due to bad luck of the fixture scheduling. I watched them against Rennes and they really ought to have won. Home win for me.

Swindon v Walsall - over 2.5 goals (1.72) - It always feels like a trap backing something like this but Swindon's games are simply chaos, 31 goals in 6 games so far, over 2.5 goals paying out in 5 of those 6 games, while Walsall have had 5 out of 7 pay out themselves. This to me seems a generous price for a pretty expected outcome.

£10 on a double to return £25.80.

[Machado]

I was going to use that Lens bet, seems like the banker of the week.

I'll go with two underdogs I like.

Leipzig saw Dani Olmo and Orban come back from international duty injuried and they will be out of the game. Augsburg like to score a goal and Leipzig have been overperforming their xG by a good margin so I expect them to slow down here.

Porto have been struggling to get points at all in the league, often scrapping a win or a draw in 'til we score' minutes. In their 4 league games, they have scored 4 times in added time. I don't expect this game to be the one where they finally win comfortably. Amadora will be a tough place to go. Newly promoted, good energy around the club, small and packed stadium, fans will be up for it.

[Stan]

@Dan this first one is my actual pick:

 

But wanted to make it known I was originally considering this much more ambitious pick and would be fuming if it came in

[Lucas]

Oxford to beat Fleetwood 11/8

Chesterfield to beat Ebbsfleet 10/11

£10 wins £45.34

[...Dan]

Dinamo Zagreb (-2 handicap) (1.95) v Slaven Belupo

Lens (1.50) v Metz

£10 returns £29.28.

[Stan]

On 15/09/2023 at 02:57, Machado said:

Leipzig saw Dani Olmo and Orban come back from international duty injuried and they will be out of the game. Augsburg like to score a goal and Leipzig have been overperforming their xG by a good margin so I expect them to slow down here.

Oops...

[Pyfish+]

[Stan]

And a big oops for me as well on all fronts  

[Lucas]

3 hours ago, Lucas said:

Oxford to beat Fleetwood 11/8

Chesterfield to beat Ebbsfleet 10/11

£10 wins £45.34

Finally!

[Stan]

On 15/09/2023 at 19:28, Stan said:

But wanted to make it known I was originally considering this much more ambitious pick and would be fuming if it came in

@Dan can you take this one please

 

[...Dan]

Man, I hate this game

[RandoEFC+]

On 14/09/2023 at 23:27, Dan said:

Lens v Metz (1.50) -

 

7 hours ago, ...Dan said:

Lens (1.50) v Metz

The stats on this match are actually criminal.

I was following this match because I had a silly 120/1 accumulator on and everything else had actually come in. The last leg was Metz to win or draw this match. When I saw that Lens were 75/25 up in possession and had registered about 8 shots within the first 15 minutes with none from Metz, I cashed out (still at 40x my stake so no complaints) and obviously hoped Lens would go on to vindicate my decision.

I don't think I've ever seen anything as lopsided as 31 shots to 2 end up in the result going the other way. Mental.

On 14/09/2023 at 10:47, RandoEFC said:

I'll have these two for this week please:

£10 >

£0 if either Spurs or Barca fail to win.

£10 if they both win by exactly one goal.

£14 if Spurs win by more than 1 and Barca win by 1.

£15.50 if Spurs win by 1 and Barca win by more than 1.

£21.70 if both Spurs and Barca win by more than one goal.

Yes I like to be complicated .

In happier news, Spurs scraped a refund for me from their leg and Barcelona won by five so that's £10 > £15.50 for me this week. Slow and steady...

[Machado]

Leipzig 0,81 xG - 3 goals

Augsburg 2,71 xG - 0 goals

[Machado]

Turns out Lens are actually shit too. Thought it was the tough early calendar but it seems like they've just regressed from last season.

[Dan+]

On 15/09/2023 at 00:27, Dan said:

No more fucking about.

Lens v Metz (1.50) - Lens were fantastic at home last season and I still think even despite a weak start this year, they will come good again and this represents a very good opportunity, at home to arguably the leagues weakest side. They've started badly but I think the price has come up from what it really ought to be and it's largely due to bad luck of the fixture scheduling. I watched them against Rennes and they really ought to have won. Home win for me.

Swindon v Walsall - over 2.5 goals (1.72) - It always feels like a trap backing something like this but Swindon's games are simply chaos, 31 goals in 6 games so far, over 2.5 goals paying out in 5 of those 6 games, while Walsall have had 5 out of 7 pay out themselves. This to me seems a generous price for a pretty expected outcome.

£10 on a double to return £25.80.

There is literally no way I'm not finishing bottom

[...Dan]

Seko Fofana is a massive loss for them.

[Pyfish+]

Rushed choices for me this weekend and it shows. Neither Semenyo or Saka scored  

[Dan+]

On 15/09/2023 at 02:57, Machado said:

I was going to use that Lens bet, seems like the banker of the week.

I'll go with two underdogs I like.

Leipzig saw Dani Olmo and Orban come back from international duty injuried and they will be out of the game. Augsburg like to score a goal and Leipzig have been overperforming their xG by a good margin so I expect them to slow down here.

Porto have been struggling to get points at all in the league, often scrapping a win or a draw in 'til we score' minutes. In their 4 league games, they have scored 4 times in added time. I don't expect this game to be the one where they finally win comfortably. Amadora will be a tough place to go. Newly promoted, good energy around the club, small and packed stadium, fans will be up for it.

I know you've lost but am I reading this right - you've gone for Estrela Amadora to not lose (price seems really short for this which makes me think I'm wrong) and Augsburg to avoid losing by 2 or more?

[Dan+]

On 12/09/2023 at 19:05, Dan said:

WEEK 6 - FURTHER PROFIT!

Slightly unpredicted delays in getting the table up (aka I totally forgot) but we have posted our best week of the season so far, more green representation than an extinction rebellion rally and the fourth week in a row that the overall result was better than the previous week.

The international week saw a slightly lower uptake with those games and lower leagues the only places to turn to, but this seemed to not affect performance.

@Stan lands his 3rd winner overall and 2nd in a row with a lower league goals double. Crawley v Newport a very wise pick as Newport have paid out over 2.5 in all seven of their league games so far. This was in by the 54th minute in a game that ended 4-1 to the hosts. It was far less plain sailing at Chesterfield as this took until the 90th minute, although it actually ended 3-1 in the end. This win takes him back to the top ahead of @Pyfish.

@Machado becomes only the second player to make a winning opening pick and climbs straight to 3rd in the table following this win. Playing a fairly safe pair of picks but this is generally proving quite effective. Bristol Rovers won their game 4-1 in the week, and Slovenia had their goal over a declining Northern Ireland within 4 minutes, in a game they would go on to win 4-2.

@CaaC (John) plays slightly more reserved than picking exact scorelines this week, but his pair of long shots get no nearer. Ukraine did manage a draw with England, but Estonia were beaten 0-5 by Sweden in Tallinn.

@RandoEFC is finally off the mark as Spain and France both won convincingly, Spain hitting an impressive 7 in their win in Georgia.

Finally, I plunge to the bottom of the table as @Lucas didn't predict and I once again lost, after Accrington couldn't find a goal against Mansfield. I'm having no luck at all this season, I've absolutely no doubt if I had backed the Mansfield win they would've drawn it like they usually seem to when I pick them. Crewe are the comeback, and consequently BTTS kings.

It's a strong week on the whole though, our best yet.

Plenty to go with this week, still not finished with internationals, and the usual stuff is back this weekend.

 

WEEK 6 STATS
Winning bets: 3/5 (60%)
Winning selections: 7/10 (70%)
Weekly forum position: +£16.17

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 8/40 (20%)
Winning selections: 32/79 (40.5%)
Total forum position: -£191.43

WEEK 7 - REGRESSION

The run of progressive improvement is over as a tough post international weekend takes its toll on most who played this weekend, with quite a number of odd results in my opinion.

@Stan retains his lead at the top of the table but he's miles off this weekend, as Ebbsfleet v Chesterfield ended 0-1 and the Oxford City - Dagenham game, where 4 goals were needed, ended goalless. It's a familiar theme to how mine have gone this season with many results seeming more random than ever. To rub salt into the wounds, the other bet he nearly went for at bigger odds paid quite considerably, so hopefully you took them both for real!

@Pyfish rushed his selections by his own admittance and neither of his goalscorers found the net, but an interesting angle to go with as well, I think you certainly have the possibility of some nice payouts looking at those sorts of odds and I might even go up that route myself. He remains in 99p profit overall, but strangely not the nearest to breakeven. That goes to @Machado who couldn't follow up last weeks win this time around. It isn't entirely clear what he's bet on to me from the screenshot, but he's definitely in some form backed Estrela Amadora and Augsburg and both of them lost so he definitely hasn't won.

@Lucas becomes the 6th member to land a winner, deserting me at the bottom of the table and in the process landing the season's biggest victory so far with a nicely executed double. Oxford's price seems absurdly big in hindsight, they won 0-3 against a dreadful Fleetwood and Chesterfield as mentioned earlier won 0-1.

@RandoEFC claims the first 'push' of the season. As somebody still fairly unfamiliar with Asian Handicap's exact ruling I was at least aware that a Tottenham 1 goal victory made this a draw no bet essentially, and their late turnaround means the Barcelona 5-0 victory is enough to seal the smallest win of the season, but a win nontheless - two wins in a row after starting with five losses.

And then we move onto the three who are still yet to win. @CaaC (John)'s bet I had registered as a double but neither selection actually won anyway, with a 2-2 draw in Scotland and Inter winning the Milan derby 5-1. And then me and @...Dan - he picks a nice winner with Dinamo Zagreb, who pick up a 3-0 victory over Slaven Belupo to secure the -2 handicap victory.

But we must talk Lens.

A pretty remarkable game, one of the weird occasions where I place a bet at a particular price, and what pans out actually makes me think despite it losing the price was slightly higher than it ought to have been. They absolutely dominated it from start to finish yet couldn't find the goal. A genuine freak of a result and a massive blow to them, their bad start gets worse as the Champions League gets underway. It didn't cost me as naturally I managed to dry up Swindon's chaos (2-0), but a Lens win here would've secured Dan a £19.18 win - which would've actually seen the forum profit by 2p overall this weekend

A bad weekend. 7 fucking losses in a row. I was genuinely really good at this last season, I had my best ever season for betting but this season's been complete and utter rubbish. I'm calling a lot of bad luck. It'll come.

WEEK 7 STATS
Winning bets: 2/8 (25%)
Winning selections: 5/15* (33.33%)
Weekly forum position: -£19.16

*Includes Asian Handicap 'push' - not included as winner or loser

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 10/48 (20.83%)
Winning selections: 37/94 (39.4%)
Total forum position: -£210.58

[Dan+]

For mine this week I head to Europe and a couple of teams who have either never played there, or are making a debut.

I'm very big on Brighton. I think they're easily one of the best 5 teams in England in this day and age and despite it being an opening game in Europe, this is a quite kind fixture. AEK Athens are Greek champions but they have started quite badly this time out, and there is a quite severe gulf in quality in this game so I fully expect Brighton to hit 3/4. I think evens on them getting 3 is quite generous.

Aston Villa I'm less big on but I simply think they have the best manager for these games they could have and they will make a far better fist of this fixture than we did two years ago. Legia are poor, the Polish league is miles off it now and I fully expect the gulf in quality to shine through.

£10 returns £30.

[Machado]

6 hours ago, Dan said:

I know you've lost but am I reading this right - you've gone for Estrela Amadora to not lose (price seems really short for this which makes me think I'm wrong) and Augsburg to avoid losing by 2 or more?

It was both teams to not lose by 2 or more. Augsburg lost by 3 so it's an L yes.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Machado

[RandoEFC+]

Going to stick with my -1 handicap approach because in this game refunds can be really valuable so as to avoid losing £10 even if the winnings are a bit slow and steady.

Hopefully I'm not underestimating Union Berlin here but at Real Madrid I'd be surprised if they can come away with anything. Hoping Madrid can win by a couple.

I'm really surprised by the price on the Bayern v Man Utd match. United have been awful to start the season and I have very little doubt that Bayern can see them off.

£10 > 

> £0 if Real Madrid or Bayern fail to win.

> £10 if Real Madrid and Bayern both win by 1.

> £15.75 if Real Madrid win by more than 1 and Bayern win by 1.

> £18.80 if Real Madrid win by 1 and Bayern win by more than 1.

> £29.60 if both Real Madrid and Bayern win by more than one goal.