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PL 2023/24 - Race for Europe


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And the 3-way title race!

Plenty of European spots on offer, potentially top 8 get Europe. 5th place could still get CL depending on how well clubs do in Europe this season...

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Villa and West Ham have currently played a game extra out of the above teams. 

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I think right now, you'd have to back Spurs for 4th despite that Fulham result, with no Europe to worry about.

Villa are starting to look a bit leggy, and the squad looks stretched.

If Newcastle get their act together, I think they have the fixtures to nick 7th. You'd definitely be wanting Sheff Utd and Burnley still to play.

That West Ham game is big for them after Internationals.

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Updated after the weekend and also with games in hand re-scheduled for GW34

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Top 2 expected to win their next game - both at home to relegation-threatened teams. 

Villa could put Man City under a lot of pressure if they sneaked a win away.

You'd think top 5 is pretty much sorted (although not in that order?) but there could be a change when you look at Man Utd's fixtures between GW34-36 and the same for Tottenham...

Then the race for 7th is still intriguing given only 3 points separate 7th and 10th. (and a further point for Chelsea in 11th). 

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Honestly if United lose the Europa League spot that would be pretty spectacular considering how bad West Ham and Newcastle have been. Brighton have to be the team to worry about now seeing as they're out of Europe

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50 minutes ago, Danny said:

Honestly if United lose the Europa League spot that would be pretty spectacular considering how bad West Ham and Newcastle have been. Brighton have to be the team to worry about now seeing as they're out of Europe

Yeah you do wonder if European participation could hinder West Ham. 

Their record after each European game this season

Lost
Drew
Lost
Won
Drew
Won
Drew
Drew

Not the best, and it could mean Newcastle vs Brighton on the penultimate game has even more importance if either can overtake West Ham

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On 19/03/2024 at 12:06, Reluctant Striker said:

I think 4th is between Villa & Spurs. While I don't see Man United catching both, they will likely be in the top 6. And I think that leaves everyone as far down as at least Chelsea looking for 7th. And the Spurs game in hand is Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

It'll be Newcastle. We'll finish 9th or 10th. 

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And just like that, a new player enters the game:

image.png

Chelsea's last minute victory means they overtake Wolves into the top-half of the table, and are now only 2 points off 7th place. And they could actually overtake West Ham if they beat Sheff Utd and Wolves beat the Hammers.

The top 3 all won, and Spurs missed out on the chance to go level with Villa who lost to Man City. They all play away this weekend, with Liverpool having the most difficult test against Man Utd. 

Looks like the race to finish 7th may go down to the wire given the amount of teams involved...

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I haven't been overly impressed with Villa when I've seen them this season but I also suppose this is the nature of chasing top 4 to finish in a Champions League spot rather than chasing a title and finishing in a Champions League spot, there is going to be more inconsistency. There's a lot of quality in this Villa team and I think you could argue they have a more balanced line up than Spurs do, but Spurs as a collective just seem a lot more dangerous, their style isn't as a mature as Villa but I think it is more aggressive in both the way they attack and defend.

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With Villa I don't think missing 4th would be a case of 'bottling it'. But there is some inherent issue within good Villa sides of the last 3 decades & that's simply the level of players they have. When Villa have been good it's often with a mix of players (& maybe managers) who didn't quite fit in at a certain other club or were seen as past their best (Dean Saunders, Paul McGrath, Paul Merson, perhaps Unai) and those that have the potential to push on beyond Top 6 but questions if they are there yet (Dwight Yorke, James Milner, Ashley Young in his 20's, probably a few of the current side)

In my time following the club been there has always been a battle to take things on to the truly top tier level. To see out the partial success.

I'm not as familiar with Spurs, but perhaps similar things there. e.g. Harshly I probably don't quite see Maddison being a central part of Liverpool, Man City or Arsenal sides right now. While of course Man United would see him as a wing back or DM. And far too old for Chelsea.

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1 minute ago, Reluctant Striker said:

With Villa I don't think missing 4th would be a case of 'bottling it'. But there is some inherent issue within good Villa sides of the last 3 decades & that's simply the level of players they have. When Villa have been good it's often with a mix of players (& maybe managers) who didn't quite fit in at a certain other club or were seen as past their best (Dean Saunders, Paul McGrath, Paul Merson, perhaps Unai) and those that have the potential to push on beyond Top 6 but questions if they are there yet (Dwight Yorke, James Milner, Ashley Young in his 20's, probably a few of the current side)

In my time following the club been there has always been a battle to take things on to the truly top tier level. To see out the partial success.

I'm not as familiar with Spurs, but perhaps similar things there. e.g. Harshly I probably don't quite see Maddison being a central part of Liverpool, Man City or Arsenal sides right now. While of course Man United would see him as a wing back or DM. And far too old for Chelsea.

I think talk of bottling is ridiculous seeing as nobody really had you down as top 4 this season. Bit like Arsenal last season, no one had them down as title challengers, barely in the top 4 for most and then suddenly they were bottle jobs lol. I think you need to secure Europa League as a minimum, imo that is good progress.

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Changes all over the place!

Arsenal rise to the top again, Tottenham are now in 4th capitalising on Villa's drop in form. Chelsea are well in the mix for Europe now as Wolves' form drops off too.

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The 3-way fight for the title continues. Arsenal, despite playing at home, probably have the most difficult fixture as Villa will want to get back to winning ways. You'd expect Liverpool and Man City to have comfortable wins...

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4 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

If we can keep players fit and get some back,  6th is not really impossible

The superior goal difference could be pivotal. 

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2 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

If we can keep a frontline of Gordon, Barnes and Isak fit,  that helps a lot

Barnes coming back as plenty others are injured could be the silver lining for now.

Man Utd vs Newcastle re-arranged for the Wednesday before the final game of the season. Maybe the 6th place could be decided then...

 

Arsenal playing before Liverpool, and Liverpool playing before Man City in the penultimate games, too.

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I always prefer playing first/before the rivals. Seems to be less pressure compared to chasing.

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1 minute ago, Stan said:

Barnes coming back as plenty others are injured could be the silver lining for now.

Man Utd vs Newcastle re-arranged for the Wednesday before the final game of the season. Maybe the 6th place could be decided then...

 

Arsenal playing before Liverpool, and Liverpool playing before Man City in the penultimate games, too.

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I always prefer playing first/before the rivals. Seems to be less pressure compared to chasing.

We have some tough games to play and we haven't been defensively tight in months,  to be as close to 6th given the rotten december and January we had is a surprise.    

I heard Pope may return in a few weeks which is a big boost. 

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Goals galore and some surprise results within - West Ham losing ground after defeat to Fulham, Man Utd the same dropping points at Bournemouth, Newcastle hammering Spurs, Villa breaching a usually-strong Arsenal defence and perhaps the most surprising of all Liverpool losing at home to Palace. The big winners of course in the title race are Man City after predictably smashing Luton. 

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A chance for some teams to gain some ground back due to Man City, Chelsea & Man Utd playing in the FA Cup. 

And some teams catching up on their games in hand with some midweek fixtures too. 

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Crazy that Villa play 2 home games (Bournemouth & Chelsea) before Spurs play another league match. The next 3 for Spurs being Arsenal, Chelsea & Liverpool all away. Obviously I'd be delighted with Villa taking 4 points, to give a 7 point lead, to heap the pressure on a run of 3 fixtures like those. I'm sure Spurs will improve on the Newcastle result. But Villa do have it in their hands again right now. For 4th. And still in the Conference League too. Best it's been for a long time.

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38 minutes ago, Reluctant Striker said:

Crazy that Villa play 2 home games (Bournemouth & Chelsea) before Spurs play another league match. The next 3 for Spurs being Arsenal, Chelsea & Liverpool all away. Obviously I'd be delighted with Villa taking 4 points, to give a 7 point lead, to heap the pressure on a run of 3 fixtures like those. I'm sure Spurs will improve on the Newcastle result. But Villa do have it in their hands again right now. For 4th. And still in the Conference League too. Best it's been for a long time.

Spurs host Arsenal. 

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Saw Alice from Alice talks football do a prediction run in and aggressively had us at 66 points, now I would obviously take that and run to the bank if offered but I can't see that. 

I think our remaining fixtures are:

Palace (A) 

Yanited (A) 

Sheff (H) 

Burnley (A) 

Brighton (H) 

Brentford (A) 

It is a bit tricky but 60-62 points would be a strong season 

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