Moon Monkey Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Just now, Pugwash said: Not bad at all mate. Love to hear things like that Gave me odds of 165/1 plus my stake, £498 I was heading to the South of France the following week, so all was good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pugwash Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, Moon Monkey said: South of France the following week, dined well no doubt, double pie and chips all round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moon Monkey Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 31 minutes ago, Pugwash said: dined well no doubt, double pie and chips all round No onions.... French understood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 (edited) It's been a little profit today, nothing mad but three wins on Day 1 of Cheltenham. But it feels gutting in truth. That 6 Fold was so close to going big. 3 winners, 3 2nd places. Concertista lost by a nose, which should have been a win jacking the win up more, whilst the other two were close runners up. Gutting as that was as close as I've come to winning a big bet ever. Talking 3K and I've only ever won as high as £400+ on Footy before. Feels like catching a big fish only for it to snap off as you reel it in. But I'll take it. Try again tomorrow. Edited March 16, 2021 by Lucas 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas Posted March 16, 2021 Share Posted March 16, 2021 What a lovely way to end today after the bittersweet of the gee gee's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROBBIEFC Posted March 22, 2021 Share Posted March 22, 2021 Had a look at the odds earlier and found Barcelona and PSG at around evens and Benfica at around 2.25. Stuck five on all three for HT/FT, cashed out for just shy of £160. I'll take that any Sunday, lovely stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 27, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 27, 2021 I spent a bit of time looking at odds and implied chances of things happening because it does quite interest me. One thing I've always thought is that draws are a bit overpriced and even more strange, you often find games where the home team is 8/5 to win, the away team is 8/5 to win, yet the draw, a surely likely outcome implied by the fact the bookies themselves can't pick a favourite, is something like 12/5. So I've started doing something where you back trebles of draws, always in games where the odds between the two teams are pretty tight. For a treble you get odds of around 25/1 at worst in this instances, and it's usually nearer 30/1. Anyhow, so far, I've done five trebles, £5 each time. Two of them have won, and in total out of the 15 games I backed, 9 of them actually ended in draws. Whilst I do take a longer term view here, I'm convinced landing those can't be as uncommon as that. I don't expect 40% of them to land, but I expect more than 4% of them to - which is what the odds imply. I'm going to keep doing this and see where it gets me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 27, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 27, 2021 (edited) The proof so far of the winners, both in the last week: Edited March 27, 2021 by Dan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucas Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Profit far outweighing the outlay so far @Dan, nice work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiley Culture Posted March 29, 2021 Share Posted March 29, 2021 On 27/03/2021 at 00:48, Dan said: I spent a bit of time looking at odds and implied chances of things happening because it does quite interest me. One thing I've always thought is that draws are a bit overpriced and even more strange, you often find games where the home team is 8/5 to win, the away team is 8/5 to win, yet the draw, a surely likely outcome implied by the fact the bookies themselves can't pick a favourite, is something like 12/5. So I've started doing something where you back trebles of draws, always in games where the odds between the two teams are pretty tight. For a treble you get odds of around 25/1 at worst in this instances, and it's usually nearer 30/1. Anyhow, so far, I've done five trebles, £5 each time. Two of them have won, and in total out of the 15 games I backed, 9 of them actually ended in draws. Whilst I do take a longer term view here, I'm convinced landing those can't be as uncommon as that. I don't expect 40% of them to land, but I expect more than 4% of them to - which is what the odds imply. I'm going to keep doing this and see where it gets me. I love stuff like this. Well done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 30, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 30, 2021 On 28/03/2021 at 13:10, Lucas said: Profit far outweighing the outlay so far @Dan, nice work. On 29/03/2021 at 12:00, Smiley Culture said: I love stuff like this. Well done. Cheers both. I've not won any since but I still think logically if you keep backing games like that you'll win in the long run, I've got to go on an extraordinary bad run to lose from here. The majority of games as well are close. There was a 3-0 in there but you do find most of the games are tight. I just think in theory when the bookies themselves are seeing no clear winner, a draw is surely a logical pick. You could easily do it with just two selections. A double gives you 8/1 or 9/1 on average. A four fold you're looking at 80/1 - 100/1. I'm slightly miffed at myself as the initial plan was to do it on lower leagues of Spain, France and Portugal as they're all quite low scoring, but I've introduced a couple of others too. I didn't do one for La Liga 2 on Sunday - all four games implied a decent chance of a draw, all four games ended 1-1. I'm £240ish up and it could've been even more. I've got another running now as it happens. Alcorcon v Real Oviedo, Malaga v Almeria, Wales v Czech Republic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 30, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 30, 2021 Alcorcon v Oviedo is in but Malaga are 2 down with 25 left, can't see them doing it, you never know though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 30, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 30, 2021 Ends 0-3 never mind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 30, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 30, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machado Posted March 30, 2021 Share Posted March 30, 2021 I too enjoy betting on draws, but never tried accas with them. I usually go for 3.00+ odds and make three of those. If only one returns, it's a small profit. Israel, Egypt, Colombia, Greece, Turkey's lowest tiers, Argentina 2nd tier and lower, France 2nd tier and lower, Morocco are great for it. Korea, Costa Rica and Denmark are not bad as well but I'd rather go for lower scoring games. A lot of both teams scoring happens in these leagues but if the bookies are predicting a 2-2 draw, it's probably going to be a bit of a chaotic game where results like 3-1 or even 3-0 might happen. I also would rather pick games where the away team are slight favourites. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 31, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 31, 2021 5 hours ago, Machado said: I too enjoy betting on draws, but never tried accas with them. I usually go for 3.00+ odds and make three of those. If only one returns, it's a small profit. Israel, Egypt, Colombia, Greece, Turkey's lowest tiers, Argentina 2nd tier and lower, France 2nd tier and lower, Morocco are great for it. Korea, Costa Rica and Denmark are not bad as well but I'd rather go for lower scoring games. A lot of both teams scoring happens in these leagues but if the bookies are predicting a 2-2 draw, it's probably going to be a bit of a chaotic game where results like 3-1 or even 3-0 might happen. I also would rather pick games where the away team are slight favourites. This is the kind of content I'm here for! I've got another tomorrow as it happens. Albacete v Castellon Sabadell v Girona Austria v Denmark Will give your leagues a look though. I've noticed already that the odds on the draw goes up in leagues such as Germany where there are more goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machado Posted March 31, 2021 Share Posted March 31, 2021 6 hours ago, Dan said: This is the kind of content I'm here for! I've got another tomorrow as it happens. Albacete v Castellon Sabadell v Girona Austria v Denmark Will give your leagues a look though. I've noticed already that the odds on the draw goes up in leagues such as Germany where there are more goals. I was going to talk about Austria vs Denmark but for a different reason. Goals in that game seem overpriced with both to score @1.97 and over 2.5 goals @2.29. Maybe it's a good sign for a low scoring draw though. Personally will have Denmark or Draw on a double as it's also good price. Also did the homework for today and in addition to Albacete and Sabadell which you're already on, I found the games below which I'm going to keep track of just for fun today. ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien CD Mirandés - CD Tenerife América de Cali - Millonarios Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 31, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 31, 2021 5 hours ago, Machado said: I was going to talk about Austria vs Denmark but for a different reason. Goals in that game seem overpriced with both to score @1.97 and over 2.5 goals @2.29. Maybe it's a good sign for a low scoring draw though. Personally will have Denmark or Draw on a double as it's also good price. Also did the homework for today and in addition to Albacete and Sabadell which you're already on, I found the games below which I'm going to keep track of just for fun today. ES Metlaoui vs Stade Tunisien CD Mirandés - CD Tenerife América de Cali - Millonarios Austria v Denmark just reeks of a draw to be honest. Any game involving two of those two, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Poland and Czech Republic I just by default think "draw". The Tunisian game ended 1-0 and Mirandes v Tenerife would've also been on my list - but it's been postponed. It's decent really. I'm finding myself betting on less stupid stuff as a result of doing this, and it's admittedly been a bad habit in the past. I just think logically the odds on some draws are a bit overpriced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted March 31, 2021 Administrator Share Posted March 31, 2021 3 hours ago, Dan said: Austria v Denmark just reeks of a draw to be honest. Any game involving two of those two, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Poland and Czech Republic I just by default think "draw". How's this working out ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber Dan+ Posted March 31, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted March 31, 2021 That was fucking awful in the end 0-4 FFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiley Culture Posted April 2, 2021 Share Posted April 2, 2021 Had a look at the draws myself and did a lucky 15. Weymouth have just scored deep into injury time to beat Maidenhead and mean I’ve ended with 1/4 selections as a though with the other three all decided by the odd goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ploughendplonker Posted May 28, 2021 Share Posted May 28, 2021 Had a bet on 3-1 Swansea with Marc Guehi scoring first 850/1 odds for tomorrow’s playoff final (v Brentford). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machado Posted June 19, 2021 Share Posted June 19, 2021 (edited) Betting against Germany seems value again today. Went for France Draw no Bet last time @ 1.96 and it landed. Portugal DNB is @ 2.45 right now. Even Portugal or Draw seems overpriced @ 1.67 Ronaldo to score is probably good depending on what your bookie is paying. Edited June 19, 2021 by Machado Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber JoshBRFC+ Posted July 4, 2021 Subscriber Share Posted July 4, 2021 (edited) Last 2 days. My mate rang me earlier asking for a bet for his brother who is a big gambler and I said Kane anytime or first and england -1. Ha Edited July 4, 2021 by JoshBRFC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted July 4, 2021 Administrator Share Posted July 4, 2021 Standard @JoshBRFC putting his tips and wins on here after the event 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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