French Election; Macron Defeats Le Pen

[Dr. Gonzo]

She only got 5% in Paris! Love it. Sad that I now think more highly of the French than my own people. A victory for economists.

[Fairy In Boots]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

She only got 5% in Paris! Love it. Sad that I now think more highly of the French than my own people. A victory for economists.

You mean a victory for the establishment and EU superstate. Voter turnout would suggest the real loser here is the French not Le Pen.

[Spike]

How can people support the EU when it subverts the sovereignty of independent European states? It's an utterly bizarre concept to me, it'd be as if Australia was run by a selection of bureaucrats from Japan and China.

[God is Haaland]

40 minutes ago, Spike said:

How can people support the EU when it subverts the sovereignty of independent European states? It's an utterly bizarre concept to me, it'd be as if Australia was run by a selection of bureaucrats from Japan and China.

You have no clue how the EU works.

[Spike]

Just now, True Bender said:

You have no clue how the EU works.

Thanks. Instead of just saying something stupid like that you could try to help me understand. Of course you don't have to.

[Spike]

Well, I didn't learn anything but at least I know I'm wrong!

[Honey Honey]

Hopefully Macron is prepared, as he hinted years ago, to take Schauble and Merkel down to reform the €urozone away from its abhorrent borderline human rights abusing behaviour.

[Fairy In Boots]

48 minutes ago, Spike said:

How can people support the EU when it subverts the sovereignty of independent European states? It's an utterly bizarre concept to me, it'd be as if Australia was run by a selection of bureaucrats from Japan and China.

Those outside think the same, those inside are fed falsehoods about it. A campaign of fear about life outside of it and branding of those aposed as fascists. If you watch the EU parliament it's like some dystopian science fiction. When people vote against they impose the law they wanted anyway.  The treatment of Greece by Germany the defacto leader is nothing short of a disgrace yet many pro EU morons will harp on about how they're a force for good in the world. Merkel, junker, tusk & Schultz are all scumbags. Hopefully I live to see them clubbed to death in the streets Gaddafi style. 

6 minutes ago, True Bender said:

You have no clue how the EU works.

Germany being too late to recognise fascism.

France surrendering.

UK making a break for freedom with Brexit.

All looking very familiar.

[Panflute]

Just now, Fairy In Boots said:

Germany being too late to recognise fascism.

Where is there fascism in the world?

[Dr. Gonzo]

55 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

You mean a victory for the establishment and EU superstate. Voter turnout would suggest the real loser here is the French not Le Pen.

Do you think European states will have stronger or weaker bargaining power in international trade agreements with or without an economic partnership? I think that's absurd. Especially considering how since the 80s we've decimated having an economy of diverse industries and instead propped up industries like the financial services industry. What was short term growth was then adopted as our long term plan... and rising discontent with the lack of foresight has now led to this resentment against it and the call for reactionary measures. Put simply, however, most EU nations would be in a worse off position in global trade without the EU. Honestly, if the EU fell apart today... I think Germany would be in the best position economically in Europe. They did not abandon manufacturing as we did, they expanded their services market, and they've got a healthy agricultural industry. And that would probably make Germany the most influential country in Europe. Sort of... the way things are now.

There is legitimate calls for reform in the EU. But when you've got people like Nigel Farage say we're not getting enough representation in the EU... and then you look at what he did as MEP, essentially show up to troll them and collect a paycheck, when it was his job to fight for British representation.... it's hard to take that seriously. Perhaps we would have gotten better representation with a better representative. And yes, we probably should have had better representation - and sought that rather than rage-quit to place ourselves in a position of great uncertainty with regard to our economic futures.

And the idea that we can get the whole world to abandon the idea of globalisation is absurd. Global trade will not stop because previous big players decide they want to abandon global trade. Instead, they'll lose trading partners they've had for decades or more. We're already seeing it with the USA and Mexico - Mexico no longer views the US as a reliable trade partner, so now they're engaging in more trade with China and Brazil. That's great for Chinese and Brazilian exporters, they'll now get new business. It's not great or US exporters.

[Spike]

Just now, Fairy In Boots said:

Those outside think the same, those inside are fed falsehoods about it. A campaign of fear about life outside of it and branding of those aposed as fascists. If you watch the EU parliament it's like some dystopian science fiction. When people vote against they impose the law they wanted anyway.  The treatment of Greece by Germany the defacto leader is nothing short of a disgrace yet many pro EU morons will harp on about how they're a force for good in the world. Merkel, junker, tusk & Schultz are all scumbags. Hopefully I live to see them clubbed to death in the streets Gaddafi style. 

Germany being too late to recognise fascism.

France surrendering.

UK making a break for freedom with Brexit.

All looking very familiar.

Hey, here is someone willing to engage in a dialect. So my understanding is that they are a bunch of un-elected officials that work with a bunch of elected officials from each representative nation. They regulate trade and (European) immigration standards mainly. 

[Spike]

7 minutes ago, Panflute said:

Where is there fascism in the world?

EVERYWHERE is you ask Antifa. 

[Fairy In Boots]

42 minutes ago, Panflute said:

Where is there fascism in the world?

The German dictatorship of Europe is fairly facist, they've got the authoritarianism fairly sorted, Just look at the control of industry & commerce in the EU they've got going. 

39 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Do you think European states will have stronger or weaker bargaining power in international trade agreements with or without an economic partnership? I think that's absurd. Especially considering how since the 80s we've decimated having an economy of diverse industries and instead propped up industries like the financial services industry. What was short term growth was then adopted as our long term plan... and rising discontent with the lack of foresight has now led to this resentment against it and the call for reactionary measures. Put simply, however, most EU nations would be in a worse off position in global trade without the EU. Honestly, if the EU fell apart today... I think Germany would be in the best position economically in Europe. They did not abandon manufacturing as we did, they expanded their services market, and they've got a healthy agricultural industry. And that would probably make Germany the most influential country in Europe. Sort of... the way things are now.

There is legitimate calls for reform in the EU. But when you've got people like Nigel Farage say we're not getting enough representation in the EU... and then you look at what he did as MEP, essentially show up to troll them and collect a paycheck, when it was his job to fight for British representation.... it's hard to take that seriously. Perhaps we would have gotten better representation with a better representative. And yes, we probably should have had better representation - and sought that rather than rage-quit to place ourselves in a position of great uncertainty with regard to our economic futures.

And the idea that we can get the whole world to abandon the idea of globalisation is absurd. Global trade will not stop because previous big players decide they want to abandon global trade. Instead, they'll lose trading partners they've had for decades or more. We're already seeing it with the USA and Mexico - Mexico no longer views the US as a reliable trade partner, so now they're engaging in more trade with China and Brazil. That's great for Chinese and Brazilian exporters, they'll now get new business. It's not great or US exporters.

Brexit wasn't anti globalisation it was more a case of pro globalisation but with the ability to call the shots ourselves and tailor the deal to our interests. You mentioned agriculture as an industry, yet it's an industry we have that's bogged down in quotas. 

If you want an example of how stupid the EU are, look at fishing quotas, the dead fish that have died anyway as their sea bladder ruptures with surfacing aren't allowed to be harvested so must be thrown back. By which point they're dead anyway. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

The fishing quotas were brought up a lot - but at the same time, without the EU British fishing waters accounts for 13% of Europe's total sea area. Under the EU agreements, is allowed to fish in 30% of Europe's waters. Small vessels have suffered from the EU quotas, but at the same time the Britain's EU fishing allocation was the second largest.

Leaving the EU doesn't quite solve these problems either. By necessity, we will have to have to still agree fishing quotas with our neighbor EU member states. Will we protect our waters from the dangers of overfishing once British fishers no longer have certain EU restrictions applied to them, by barring foreign fishing vessels? Maybe - but that will mean the Marine Monitoring Organisation will need to have a huge amount of funding and oversight. Currently they're facing budget cuts, though, so we're not exactly gearing up to protect the British fishing industry from overfishing, which will be devastating to those communities If we have that kind of policy successfully enacted, we may prevent British fishing from external sources. But chances are the EU will take steps to prevent British fishers from using foreign waters. That accounts for about 20% of what British fishers catch currently.

So it's not exactly going to magically make things better for British fisherman - and when fishing rights are worked out for British and EU fishermen it'll either maintain things pretty similarly to how they are... or there will be less quotas on how much UK fishers can fish, but there will also be greater restrictions on where they can fish - and time will tell how that will impact the industry. It looks unstable and instability for industry is generally not great.

To me it does not really solve the problem. To me the realistic scenarios are either: nothing will change much for the fishermen or it will put greater restraints on UK fishermen in the future. I agree with those who think there are problems with what the government has done in the face of communities and industries being ravaged. At the same time, I think it's a bit too late to make drastic changes and failing to acknowledge the areas of success achieved for member states by the EU is a bit silly. Widespread reform was probably needed before we voted to leave, and I don't think that changes for EU member states despite us leaving.

But failing to admit that certain sectors can't support the same number of jobs or prop up communities, and that people will need to adapt for the world that has been carved out for us and learn new skills to thrive is silly. France doesn't need Le Pen to try to make the world go back 40 years for France, because she won't be able to do that. She can't make the world turn back time because the world economy won't stop for France or any other country. Hollande was an awful leader who fucked France and killed job prospects for their youth, they need someone who can try to pull them forward while recognising how a global economy works. Macron is not great, but he's got that over Le Pen.

[Honey Honey]

1 minute ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Do you think European states will have stronger or weaker bargaining power in international trade agreements with or without an economic partnership? I think that's absurd. Especially considering how since the 80s we've decimated having an economy of diverse industries and instead propped up industries like the financial services industry. What was short term growth was then adopted as our long term plan... and rising discontent with the lack of foresight has now led to this resentment against it and the call for reactionary measures. Put simply, however, most EU nations would be in a worse off position in global trade without the EU. Honestly, if the EU fell apart today... I think Germany would be in the best position economically in Europe. They did not abandon manufacturing as we did, they expanded their services market, and they've got a healthy agricultural industry. And that would probably make Germany the most influential country in Europe. Sort of... the way things are now.

There is legitimate calls for reform in the EU. But when you've got people like Nigel Farage say we're not getting enough representation in the EU... and then you look at what he did as MEP, essentially show up to troll them and collect a paycheck, when it was his job to fight for British representation.... it's hard to take that seriously. Perhaps we would have gotten better representation with a better representative. And yes, we probably should have had better representation - and sought that rather than rage-quit to place ourselves in a position of great uncertainty with regard to our economic futures.

And the idea that we can get the whole world to abandon the idea of globalisation is absurd. Global trade will not stop because previous big players decide they want to abandon global trade. Instead, they'll lose trading partners they've had for decades or more. We're already seeing it with the USA and Mexico - Mexico no longer views the US as a reliable trade partner, so now they're engaging in more trade with China and Brazil. That's great for Chinese and Brazilian exporters, they'll now get new business. It's not great or US exporters.

If the EU fell apart Germany would be in the worst economic position of all countries by quite a margin.

The Bundesbank is owed hundreds and hundreds of billions (over a trillion I think) from periphery central banks. They wouldn't get much of that back. The private banks such as Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have derivatives and liabilities around Europe that would lead to them going completely bust when the value of these assets and their returns collapse, probably bringing the global economy down with them. Germany would grind to a halt and the Japanese would take a large chunk of their MTS business. It has the most to lose.

 

 

Globalisation is too broad a term to mean anything. There is wealth creating globalisation, you can't grow Pineapples in Yorkshire so you trade thus adding new transactions to the economy and creating wealth. There is neo-colonialist globalisation, where you move production to enable more transactions to take place by driving down the price using human rights abuses and taking advantage of the absence of workers rights (e.g. Primark). There is wealth transfer globalisation where a company moves production out of one community to a cheaper one but doesn't actually increase transactions in the economy or lower the price enough to do so (e.g. Cadburys moving to Poland). There is state cheating globalisation where a government does deals and creates an enviornment favourable to a big business so that they can take the wealth from another country (e.g. Apple and Ireland).

Globalisation is badly governed and badly delivered because lawyers and politicians decided to get together and create treaties, courts, curriences and multinational parliaments which have tied their hands preventing them from addressing negative side effects of globalisation. It's not a surprise that the response from some political wings is to be anti-globalist. The response in turn to that is wilfully ignorant globalism. Both are retardation's. In a competent democratic framework you would not get polar opposites on the matter like we do today as their would have been suitable response to side effects.

There is very little indication that there will be any reform to make globalisation work properly.

[Kowabunga]

2 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

The German dictatorship of Europe is fairly facist

You keep repeating those words, I don't think they mean what you think they mean.

While neither of them are positive, Fascism rise to power and technocratic apparatchik having a bit less accountability and a bit more voice at the higher spheres than desired have little to none traits in common.

Ultimately the greatest achieving by far of the EU is its invaluable role as punching bag and escape valve to project insecurities.

[oliveandblue]

I just wonder if German influence is just going to grow even more due to the results of this election.  Macron isn't going to tip the apple cart - and while Le Pen isn't the answer, I just wish that France would have more authority in the EU.

[Panflute]

The roastmaster of politics comes out of retirement.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/silvio-berlusconi-says-emmanuel-macron-nice-lad-good-looking/?WT.mc_id=tmgoff_fb_tmg

[Fairy In Boots]

Pretty much 

[Spike]

Emmanuel Maricon

[Fairy In Boots]

On 5/8/2017 at 8:50 PM, Kowabunga said:

You keep repeating those words, I don't think they mean what you think they mean.

While neither of them are positive, Fascism rise to power and technocratic apparatchik having a bit less accountability and a bit more voice at the higher spheres than desired have little to none traits in common.

Ultimately the greatest achieving by far of the EU is its invaluable role as punching bag and escape valve to project insecurities.

in fairness on this particular evening I was indulging in a bit of good old wumming to try and get True Bender to bite, alas he just makes a statement and doesn't back it up, he's correct though.

Don't take my likening Germany to Fascist's seriously, they're exerting influence and effectively ruling via proxy with occasional brinkmanship style tactics but they're not a fascist state.

[Kowabunga]

On 23/4/2017 at 10:13 PM, Kowabunga said:

She will lose in the second round. I think we will probably be witnesses to some internal strifes in the FN coming up to the run-off (and afterwards), which Ms. Marine would need to handle to keep her party in one piece.

 

On 23/4/2017 at 10:20 PM, Kowabunga said:

This isn't going to be 2002 all over again, the election in which her father added less than 1% of relative support to his cause in the run-off. Marine Le Pen will add a substantial amount of votes to her candidature (probably amounting for circa 15% of relative support) in the second round, but it will not be enough, though.

With a 2% deviation between the result and my forecast and with Marion in (strategical) retreat and Jean Marie doing crazy stuff (or playing 4D chess), I think my forecast has been up to now mostly correct. Obviously there are tensions within the FN, as it is an not particularly coherent amalgame of right wing ideologies, but I am not sure if that's going to affect them very much legislative election-wise, as a far righter split would get a very crappy percentage in the legislative, and most of Marine official "Patriot" candidates  would pass to the run-offs either way.

18 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

in fairness on this particular evening I was indulging in a bit of good old wumming to try and get True Bender to bite, alas he just makes a statement and doesn't back it up, he's correct though.

Don't take my likening Germany to Fascist's seriously, they're exerting influence and effectively ruling via proxy with occasional brinkmanship style tactics but they're not a fascist state.

Obviously there are tensions. Taking into account it is not a zero-sum game, the compromise in the EU however currently seems to lean more towards favouring Germany. Worrying but not unfixable. Probably it would help not having Merkel&Schauble, although nothing revolutionary is expected to come up from the German election.

In related news, after the nomination of Edouard Philippe as French Prime Minister, there has been an appointment of new ministers. Interesting that both the Minister of Economy, the Minister of Budget and the Prime Minister come from the Republicans.

[Spike]

Read that voting officials were tearing ballots marked for Le Pen so they could be identified and destroyed. Not one for posturing or accepting rumours as facts but I wouldn't be surprised either way given how desperate people are for their horse to cross the line first.

[Inverted]

17 hours ago, Spike said:

Read that voting officials were tearing ballots marked for Le Pen so they could be identified and destroyed. Not one for posturing or accepting rumours as facts but I wouldn't be surprised either way given how desperate people are for their horse to cross the line first.

And people also create baseless rumours and discredit democracy out of the same desperation. 

[Honey Honey]

That's why you should laminate your ballot paper before handing it in