The Relegation Battle 2023

[Michael]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I think this Leicester v Everton game is going to be a blood and thunder humdinger, it is going to be a gun watchalong

Yeah, I am really looking forward to this fixture. In many ways, it's an almost do or die game for both clubs. It should be an extremely intense match.

[RandoEFC+]

This match tonight isn't do or die. Leicester are probably safe if they win. If we win then we're probably more than 50% to stay up again but if we lose we're still only one win away from overtaking Leeds and Forest again who are both dreadful and don't look like picking up points themselves any time soon.

Really they should just relegate four teams this season because it's an absolute crime that at least one of Everton, Leeds and Forest is going to get away with it.

[Stan]

Yeah also don't think it's do or die. Given the points difference. It's a hammer blow in terms of not picking up points in a winnable game, but due to how shit Forest and Leeds also are, it's not out of the question that the team who loses today also gets relegated just like that. 

It's a massive hit to the confidence for either side if they lose. 

[Dave]

 

They need to do something, the players look like they've checked out...

 

 

 

[Stan]

Games being completed thick and fast and now into the final month of the season.

Missed opportunities, players mentally checking out, points taken off each other, points taken off top-6 sides - it all goes on down this end of the table!

Southampton are pretty much gone anyway. Then it's still 4/5 teams to finalise the other two spots. West Ham are pretty much safe with their upturn in form, but can still mathematically go down. Bournemouth totally out of the picture after their recent wins.

The form of each other side is terrible. Only two wins across the bottom 5  

 

 

Arguably Leeds have the toughest run-in, closely followed by Everton perhaps.

I can envisage Everton winning their final two as Wolves/Bournemouth could be on the beach. Struggling to see if Leeds get enough points on the board before they face Tottenham. Same goes for Leicester - I was hoping for enough points before we play West Ham, but it looks like we'll need something from that game...

[OrangeKhrush]

I think Everton and Leicester have enough quality to get just about over the line.   Leeds and Forest not so much, Leeds look awful and Forest don't have a good enough squad

[Stan]

16 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

I think Everton and Leicester have enough quality to get just about over the line.   Leeds and Forest not so much, Leeds look awful and Forest don't have a good enough squad

My worry is that Forest will beat Southampton at home, and get an away win vs Palace on last day as they'll have nothing to play for. Weirdly wouldn't put it past them to beat Arsenal as well. 

[RandoEFC+]

When it gets to the final day, you always back a team who need a result and know it's their last chance over a team that's got nothing at stake. All four of the remaining teams to join Southampton have a winnable fixture on the last day, although Leeds have the toughest one against Spurs, who are a mess but are still better than West Ham, Bournemouth and Palace and might actually have something to play for.

With Forest having Southampton at home, they probably have a slight edge over Leicester, Everton and Leeds in terms of fixtures but it's far from nailed on they'll win that game. I think as bad as Chelsea have been, they will see off Forest. Arsenal should go there and beat them as well.

Leicester still have the best players with the highest ceiling of the four but failing to beat either Everton or Leeds has put them a bit back into the shit when that was probably their best chance to pull away and potentially not need a win on the final day. Fulham have come back into a bit of form in the last few games and Liverpool and Newcastle will be tough games, although I wouldn't rule them out of getting something from them. 

Leeds should be dead and buried looking at their form and fixtures, and the manner of some of their recent results. I just worry that Allardyce coming in will allow them to shit-house a few points off someone. I actually think Allardyce and that brand of fire-fighting football is a bit washed up now and he won't have long to sort them out but I'd still be more comfortable if they'd stuck with Gracia instead.

After our improvement last night, I do think we have it in us to get a result from one of the next three games. Wolves away is probably the best chance but with some luck we might do something against Brighton who have a lot of games in quick succession. Then if we go into the last game against Bournemouth knowing that a win definitely keeps us up then I'd just about back us to do it.

[RandoEFC+]

On 28/04/2023 at 09:05, RandoEFC said:

New perceived chances:

Southampton 95.2% (+6.3%)

Everton 66.7% (+14.3%)

Nottm Forest 57.1% (-24.7%)

Leeds 47.6% (+16.8%)

Leicester 38.1% (+7.3%)

West Ham 2.4% (-1.4%)

Bournemouth 1.5% (-4.4%)

Updated odds anyway:

Southampton 97.6% (+2.4%)

Leeds 63.6% (+16.0%)

Everton 57.9% (-8.8%)

Nottm Forest 52.4% (-4.7%)

Leicester 34.8% (-3.3%)

West Ham 2.9% (+0.5%)

 

Another win for Bournemouth this weekend sees them join the home and dry <1% club. Leeds were the biggest losers of the weekend and overtake Forest and Everton to become the most likely team to join Southampton in the bottom three. Forest see their position improve slightly despite defeat at Brentford which will have largely been expected. Leicester and Everton's draw sees both teams sit marginally better off after Leeds' drubbing at Bournemouth, but neither seized the opportunity to move firmly into safe territory.

[Stan]

4 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

but neither seized the opportunity to move firmly into safe territory.

That's the really annoying thing about yesterday's game from our perspective - every other team around us lost and this would have been a great 3 points to add to our tally while others faltered.

[RandoEFC+]

4 minutes ago, Stan said:

That's the really annoying thing about yesterday's game from our perspective - every other team around us lost and this would have been a great 3 points to add to our tally while others faltered.

Someone was posting the percentage odds depending on the result before the game. They had it at something like Everton 80% to go down and Leicester 15% if you won last night. An Everton win was something like Everton 30% to go down and Leicester 60%. A draw leaves it very up in the air between the four teams but I still think Leicester have (only just) got the most cause for optimism still.

[Honey Honey]

The good thing about the fixtures everyone has got is that it is unlikely anyone will be clear with 2 games to go. It could easily be just as open then as it is now unless some shock wins come out.

This is juicy. I hope it holds up. So many years something has looked like it's going to be epic only for it to be over early.

[Dan+]

If it goes down to the final day we'll drop for sure.

[Dan+]

I'm quite big on odds, simply due to intrigue and knowing that they've been conjured up based on algorithms, data from experts and then common opinion reacting to them. I'm always intrigued to see what 'should' happen on this consensus.

The bookies think that Southampton are done, which I'd agree with now, they're virtually finished and would take a miracle to get out of it.

But then there are four others. They make Leeds, Everton and Forest all likely to drop. And then Leicester the outsider.

But I just cannot understand anymore why we're the outsider. We've four games left. I don't see much difference between the run ins - I think they're much of a muchness, every team has a toughie, every team has a kind one on paper. There's nothing in it.

So I just don't really see why this late on we're still fancied. We've just demonstrated in the last two games we're as bad as Leeds and Everton. Consensus has been all season we'd be OK. I don't get how that can still stand. We're level with these teams for a reason and we've proven we can't deliver against them when the pressure is on.

I had Leeds fans, including a good mate I've not seen in years telling me we'd definitely beat them. We didn't.

I had Everton fans telling me exactly the same thing, it would be mutiny, we'd batter them. We didn't.

We're as bad as anybody. I think we will go.

[Lucas]

21 hours ago, Dan said:

I'm quite big on odds, simply due to intrigue and knowing that they've been conjured up based on algorithms, data from experts and then common opinion reacting to them. I'm always intrigued to see what 'should' happen on this consensus.

The bookies think that Southampton are done, which I'd agree with now, they're virtually finished and would take a miracle to get out of it.

But then there are four others. They make Leeds, Everton and Forest all likely to drop. And then Leicester the outsider.

But I just cannot understand anymore why we're the outsider. We've four games left. I don't see much difference between the run ins - I think they're much of a muchness, every team has a toughie, every team has a kind one on paper. There's nothing in it.

So I just don't really see why this late on we're still fancied. We've just demonstrated in the last two games we're as bad as Leeds and Everton. Consensus has been all season we'd be OK. I don't get how that can still stand. We're level with these teams for a reason and we've proven we can't deliver against them when the pressure is on.

I had Leeds fans, including a good mate I've not seen in years telling me we'd definitely beat them. We didn't.

I had Everton fans telling me exactly the same thing, it would be mutiny, we'd batter them. We didn't.

We're as bad as anybody. I think we will go.

I guess the thing is, you don't have Man City. Us and Everton do, so you could say we're already one fixture down, especially this run they are on.

City at Goodison, sandwiched between Real Madrid games has fallen well nice for Everton mind and there is a little history that City can struggle there so I'd say Everton will carry some hope into that game.

I think the other thing is, you have caught Fulham at a good time. Not only no Mitrovic, but Andreas and Tim Ream out for them, obviously been stalwarts in their team all season, and they have had three straight losses. It's very winnable for you that one I think.

Plus, I think there is a perception, inaccurate or not, you have more quality in your side attack wise to get what you need. People look at Forest, very limited, Everton, reknown for not beiing free scoring and struggling to create, and us that miss too many chances.

Last point I'd say, is that you look back at your recent results and you don't really take hammerings. We do on the regular and Everton have had a couple recently which stays in people's heads.

That would maybe be my reasoning for those odds.

[Dan+]

2 hours ago, Lucas said:

I guess the thing is, you don't have Man City. Us and Everton do, so you could say we're already one fixture down, especially this run they are on.

City at Goodison, sandwiched between Real Madrid games has fallen well nice for Everton mind and there is a little history that City can struggle there so I'd say Everton will carry some hope into that game.

I think the other thing is, you have caught Fulham at a good time. Not only no Mitrovic, but Andreas and Tim Ream out for them, obviously been stalwarts in their team all season, and they have had three straight losses. It's very winnable for you that one I think.

Plus, I think there is a perception, inaccurate or not, you have more quality in your side attack wise to get what you need. People look at Forest, very limited, Everton, reknown for not beiing free scoring and struggling to create, and us that miss too many chances.

Last point I'd say, is that you look back at your recent results and you don't really take hammerings. We do on the regular and Everton have had a couple recently which stays in people's heads.

That would maybe be my reasoning for those odds.

I'd neutralise the Man City game by saying we have to play Newcastle and Liverpool, both of probably the next best teams in the form table. Newcastle have eaten us alive twice this season. On the final home game of the season I see them doing the same.

We've caught Fulham at a good time but I still don't see much evidence that we can be trusted to beat them. They've lost 8 of their last 10 games, the others they beat Leeds & Everton. Would not be shocked if we were beaten. 

We were also quite frankly awful the other night, we were second best to Everton. We are an objectively bad team. I think we might still survive but we've proven ourselves to be just as bad as the others.

If we stay up this season I think we'll go down next.

This is a very pessimistic post but I just can't do optimistic anymore. I tried before Leeds / Everton and I genuinely felt it but I've just accepted now we're as bad as the others.

[Dave]

On 02/05/2023 at 10:30, Stan said:

My worry is that Forest will beat Southampton at home, and get an away win vs Palace on last day as they'll have nothing to play for. 

Given our track record when it comes to sticking the knife in, you have nothing to worry about.

[Stan]

1 hour ago, The Palace Fan said:

Given our track record when it comes to sticking the knife in, you have nothing to worry about.

How do you mean? I need evidence!  

[OrangeKhrush]

 

[Dave]

7 hours ago, Stan said:

How do you mean? I need evidence!  

Hull City.

Stoke City.

Huddersfield.

Watford.

 

They don't come back up when we send them down either.

[Dan+]

Cardiff as well.

My biggest worry about us is the mentality of our team. They have previous for bottling it. I absolutely believe we could go into the final day needing a draw at home to a West Ham side that had nothing to play for that were resting players for the conference league final, and lose it.

[OrangeKhrush]

Leicester and Everton will be up shit creek if they get relegated and that nay serve as enough motivation.   Leeds are still paying off Augustine who cost them 42m in damages for 48 minutes

[Lucas]

It literally is all about damage limitation this weekend and see where we're at 10pm Monday night. 

If we aren't in the relegation zone at that point, then something's gone massively wrong somewhere.

All we can do is...

A) Keep the score down as much as possible at City so Goal Difference doesn't become too much an advantage for Everton and Forest.

B) Hope results don't go too badly against us.

Everton have a very tough one away, Leicester have a difficult but winnable game away against a very unpredictable side and Forest have bottom of the league. I know Saints are better away from home but Monday night at the City Ground, home support behind them, you got to back Forest to do what they need to do.

I'm expecting wins for Forest and Leicester, wouldn't completely write off an Everton draw at Brighton after their display Monday, but I'd like to think Brighton can overcome them. I always worry with Brighton that they can struggle to break teams down that stay compact and with no clinical striker, they do miss a lot of chances, so we'll see.

[Dan+]

I don't think Everton are capable of playing that compact. Both us and them seemed to take the mentality of throwing caution to the wind.

Dyche's sides are less hard to break down and more a quite unique attacking threat. I thought this to be the case at Burnley too, he's more attacking than I think he gets credit for - but on the flip side he's worse defensively.

[RandoEFC+]

Any manager who deliberately chooses to keep picking Michael Keane can not be called a defensive mastermind.