Dan's Tipping Game

[Stan]

Of course Crawley don't score ffs 

[Dan+]

On 06/10/2023 at 00:19, Dan said:

Here he goes again, attempt number 10.

After dabbling all week with having Huddersfield to win at Sheffield Wednesday, the sacking of Xisco Munoz and the shortening of Huddersfield's price has put me off, so I have opted for this.

Lens I've talked up in here before. They were extraordinarily unlucky to lose the last time they were backed in here and the underlying data tells you they're hitting similar levels in performance this time around, albeit without quite having the results to back it up yet - though I think you can probably forgive them as they've had pretty tough fixtures in trips to PSG and Monaco, unluckily drew at home to Rennes, lost at Brest (although Brest have started very well themselves) and then had that Metz debacle. Since the Metz loss, they have drawn away at Sevilla, beaten Toulouse, Strasbourg and then in the week turned over Arsenal at home. They are a good team and they are picking up again. Lille is their derby fixture which I think can throw a lot of form out of the equation, but I just think better than evens on Lens here is worth taking - particularly with Lille coming back off a midweek trip to Klaksvik (which they didn't win) and have demonstrated very mixed form themselves.

For my other I'm taking the under 5 goals and win pick again. Derby are 1/2 (1.50) to win the game and throwing under 5 goals into the equation delivers a nice little boost to the price against a team who are remarkably yet to score a single goal in their 11 league games so far. I think another funny element with Cheltenham is the fact they didn't score in the League Cup, and in the EFL Trophy they lost 4-1 to Bristol Rovers, with their goal coming from an own goal, so no Cheltenham player has actually netted yet. There is a gulf in quality in this game and although Derby are prone to a dodgy result, they ought to be winning this one and I think given Cheltenham are so barren in front of goal, it's worth taking the unders in this here. Under 4.5 goals has paid out in 20 of the combined 21 games these two have played this season.

It's just truly remarkable at this point.

[RandoEFC+]

On 06/10/2023 at 20:56, RandoEFC said:

Going a bit punchier this weekend.

Atleti refund. Leicester win.

£10 > £18.40 I'll take that.

[Dan+]

On 03/10/2023 at 01:08, Dan said:

WEEK 9 - PITIFUL

After a slightly improved period, this weekend has served to wipe out all of the good as all eight players posted a loss for only the second time this season, making it the joint worst week of the season along with week two.

It started early on with league leading @Machado losing on Bracknell's failure to score twice in their home game with Beaconsfield - falling to a surprise 0-3 defeat in what also takes the unwanted crown of being the shortest odds loser of the season, beating the current leader of @RandoEFC picking Chelsea to score twice at home to Forest. Hartlepool v Solihull ended 0-2, so a payout there.

@CaaC (John) couldn't back up his big win. Atletico going 0-2 down but eventually beating Cadiz, however Atalanta could only muster a goalless draw with Juventus, so no winner this time.

Thought I'd introduce a movement tab to show who has done what in the table relating to last week as I found it funny that the only riser in the table was the only one who didn't play. @Stan falls to a third straight loss with probably his poorest of the season yet. A surprisingly tame Basque derby produced only 40 booking points. Always think that a comprehensive victory for one team is a death knell for booking points. Guirassy's form dried up this week, Stuttgart taking a 0-2 victory at Koln but Brighton loanee Deniz Undav got both goals.

@Pyfish came fairly close, impressively landing the Tonali booking, but Alvarez didn't score on the night as Man City exited the EFL Cup with a 1-0 loss at Newcastle.

@Lucas came the closest to a winner this week, Fiorentina swatting aside Cagliari 3-0 but Fulham couldn't score past Chelsea, which cost the bet.

@RandoEFC loses on the asian handicaps this week as PSG somehow manage to draw with bottom of the table Clermont. A game that cost me a bet as well, infuriatingly. Newcastle made no mistake and they seem to have gotten their early season issues put well to the side now.

@...Dan still can't catch a break, his Dutch double pretty disastrous as both of his picks were beaten pretty comfortably at home and is still yet to taste victory.

Once again, I have to finish talking about myself. 9 defeats from 9 and it really does just feel like a curse at this point when I can somehow produce a loser with those selections. The Arsenal selection wasn't miles off losing but I maintain that was great value. Man City however, just what the hell can you even say at this point?

A dreadful week unfortunately.

WEEK 9 STATS
Winning bets: 0/8 (0%)
Winning selections: 5/15 (33.3%)
Weekly forum position: -£80.00

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 12/64 (18.75%)
Winning selections: 49/122 (40.16%)
Total forum position: -£275.82

 

WEEK 10 - IMPROVEMENT BUT STILL DOWN

As the title explains, we see an upturn on last weeks disaster but unfortunately it's actually a negative weekend as the wins were small and only 3 of them happened. We also saw no movement in the table at all for the first time all season.

I'm sort of happy to see @Machado rewarded for delving into the most sick in the head league I've seen toyed with this season as a double chance in the Egyptian Premier League pays out, though it did turn out Smouha actually won the game 2-1 so an outright pick would've also landed, but wins are wins. I've long held a belief that research into some of these leagues can actually pay dividends so I'm glad to see it rewarded.

With an even smaller win this week was @CaaC (John) who picked two home certs in the Europa League in Liverpool and Roma and neither failed, meaning he holds onto second place.

The final winner was @RandoEFC who's asian handicaps seem to be serving him well. Leicester doing the business against Stoke and the bolder pick of Atletico Madrid being saved by a late Griezmann penalty to push it. Another small win.

@Stan's been pretty unlucky again. With the Southampton game paying out courtesy of a late Rotherham equaliser (life under Russell Martin) it would've been pretty unfortunate in my opinion for that one to lose as the stats paint complete domination. The Crawley Wrexham game was a bloodbath that had everything but goals, only the one landed, and another would've put him quite comfortable at the top of the table again.

@Pyfish hits the most annoying thing in betting in my opinion in that he lands his outside pick of Scunthorpe at above evens, yet is let down by a far shorter price in Luton v Tottenham. I could write a book on the day I had yesterday where such events occurred.

There is now unfortunately a big gap between 7th and 8th, with anybody called Dan in this game seemingly cursed. It's @...Dan who comes closer this week as the Roda pick wins, but he does seem to have a pretty unfortunate habit in this of picking teams who don't only not win, but get absolutely bashed. VVV the latest culprits, going down 3-0 to Ajax reserves and on current form you'd probably tip them to beat the first team, who were beaten again this weekend at home by AZ Alkmaar - something I wish I'd had in here.

Finally, I come to myself again. I mean given Lens didn't win either I can't whinge too much but the fact I've managed to coax a goal out of Cheltenham is just incredible. I should've known it would be Derby. They really are a comedy club nowadays.

In terms of actual single selections it's a pretty good week, but unfortunately it is still a loss on the whole albeit not a huge one.

International weekend so it's slim pickings, but maybe that's the chance to dabble into some of the more peculiar things out there. I think this is a route I'll have to go down. Anything beats this dog shit.

WEEK 10 STATS
Winning bets: 3/7 (42.9%)
Winning selections: 8/13 (61.53%)
Weekly forum position: -£16.06 (ranked 4th out of 10)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 15/71 (21.12%)
Winning selections: 57/135 (42.22%)
Total forum position: -£291.88

[Pyfish+]

San Marino don't tend to lose by too many goals but a loss is a cert. Northern Ireland in their last few meetings with San Marino have tended to score 2 or 3 goals (and 4 on one occasion) so under 3.5 goals at that price is good in my eyes. Lincoln are struggling for form at the moment despite being higher in the table than Burton. Burton are in great form and hopefully at 3.50 they can beat Lincoln.

8.75 double pays out £87.50 - bold.

[Dan+]

I quite like that top one. That's a good shout. It feels very 2-0.

[CaaC (John)+]

European Championship - October 12th

Group A
Spain v Scotland

Group D
Croatia v Turkey

Bald for a win double £10

[Machado]

Skipping the international football and going with this double on the Turkish cup.

Bet 1 loses only if away side loses the match by more than two goals.

Bet 2 is under 3.5 match goals.

[Dan+]

2 hours ago, CaaC (John) said:

European Championship - October 12th

Group A
Spain v Scotland

Group D
Croatia v Turkey

Bald for a win double £10

He's back to try and save the forum, I wish you the best!

[Pyfish+]

When he puts Bald does that mean he will shave his hair as well if it comes good?

[Stan]

1 minute ago, Pyfish said:

When he puts Bald does that mean he will shave his hair as well if it comes good?

I hope so. 

[RandoEFC+]

Poland on Thursday, Portugal on Monday.

[Machado]

20 hours ago, Machado said:

Skipping the international football and going with this double on the Turkish cup.

Bet 1 loses only if away side loses the match by more than two goals.

Bet 2 is under 3.5 match goals.

️

[CaaC (John)+]

11 hours ago, Pyfish said:

When he puts Bald does that mean he will shave his hair as well if it comes good?

No chance, I have strict instructions from our daughter and Kaiden to grow a beard and keep my hair long for Xmas as they both want me as a Santa.

 

[Dan+]

On 10/10/2023 at 22:46, Machado said:

Skipping the international football and going with this double on the Turkish cup.

Bet 1 loses only if away side loses the match by more than two goals.

Bet 2 is under 3.5 match goals.

I'm gonna have to start backing these. They're that niche that there can only be decent research done on them.

Very interesting the top one - flash scores tells me that Denizlispor were 1.12 to win the game, suspended and then came back in at 1.95.

[Machado]

2 hours ago, Dan said:

I'm gonna have to start backing these. They're that niche that there can only be decent research done on them.

Very interesting the top one - flash scores tells me that Denizlispor were 1.12 to win the game, suspended and then came back in at 1.95.

They left some of the best players out, even had a 15 year old starting. Threw the match. Club is in shambles anyway. Playing in the 3rd tier for the first time in their history and struggling. Played UEFA competitions eariler this century.

Second one was stat based. Neither of those teams really see more than 3 goals in their games. 0 in their last 13 combined.

[Dan+]

Time to get a bit riskier, but there is method.

Northern Ireland v San Marino - Northern Ireland to win & under 4.5 goals @ 9/10 (1.90) - I'm taking this because it's pretty much a certainty that Northern Ireland will win the game, being priced at 1/50 to win it and I don't think any real explanation is needed why. The under 4.5 goals angle however boosts the price enormously and while I appreciate there is always a risk of this going wrong against San Marino, it has paid out for 13 of their last 14 qualifiers with only a 6-0 loss at Finland going over 4.5. Northern Ireland themselves are hardly in blustering form and the bet has come in on all five occasions the two have met, including a 0-2 win for Northern Ireland in March. While San Marino are always open to being hammered, I think Northern Ireland's generally pretty dour style and signs of a team in decline (they've picked up 0 points from their 5 games against other opposition, scoring only twice) there's a very reasonable chance this comes in.

Iceland v Luxembourg - Luxembourg to win @ 7/2 (4.50) - This one is quite risky so I won't kick off if it doesn't pay out (famous last words), but I think the bookies have gotten this one well wide of the mark and it's based on reputation as opposed to reality. I think there is still a perception of Luxembourg as this useless minnow and Iceland as this plucky team. The truth is if you look to the table, Luxembourg are the better team. Take out the anomaly of playing Portugal, who are quite considerably the strongest team in Group J, the form is as follows: Iceland (2-0-3), Luxembourg (3-1-0), against the same opposition, including Luxembourg winning the reverse 3-1 at home - a game where they exerted clear control. My worry is the pressure may get to Luxembourg somewhat, but there is absolutely nothing to suggest to me that Luxembourg should be anywhere near this big a price. Iceland have already lost at home to Slovakia and while beating Bosnia at home, they were pretty fortunate too. Luxembourg have drawn at Slovakia and won away at Bosnia. I wouldn't call this anywhere near a banker, but I think the bookies are wrong here.

£10 returns £85.90.

[Dan+]

Luxembourg back to being fucking shit then

[Dan+]

Video - d306764d - Oct 14, 2023 (streamin.me) Sighs!

[Stan]

Sticking with this, stubborn! 

Last time there weren't 2 goals in a Crewe home game was back in January. Tranmere have lost all their away games this season. Tranmere average 12 corners in their last 5 games. 

 

Swindon have scored 17 goals in all their home games this season. Newport away form sketchy. 42 corners in their last 4 league games. 46 in Swindon's last 4.

[Lucas]

Northern Premier League

Radcliffe FC (17/20) to beat Ilkeston Town 17/20

Warrington Rylands (13/10) to beat Gainsborough 

£10 wins £42.55

[Stan]

Bookings let me down. 

Time to change tact for next week. 

[Pyfish+]

That is a huge win for me!

[Lucas]

7 hours ago, Lucas said:

Northern Premier League

Radcliffe FC (17/20) to beat Ilkeston Town 17/20

Warrington Rylands (13/10) to beat Gainsborough 

£10 wins £42.55

Don't bother looking it up @Dan, I'll save you the hassle.

Radcliffe won easy, Warrington Rylands could only draw. That's what I get for betting on pub leagues.

Bet @DeadLinesman was playing for them probably

[Lucas]

29 minutes ago, Pyfish said:

That is a huge win for me!

Very good shout mate, you deserve that one, fair play