Dan's Tipping Game

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Pyfish said:

That is a huge win for me!

Nicely done! 

[Dan+]

8 hours ago, Pyfish said:

That is a huge win for me!

The best of the season quite comfortable. Will be a decent table update this week!

[Dan+]

I didn't realise how unlucky John was. Fucking hell. That would've been a return to put the forum in substantial profit, and would've meant he finished the season at absolute worst case scenario £262 up  

[Machado]

It's monday so I'll get mine in for the week

Russia to win

Venezuela vs Chile - Over 1.5 match goals

[Dan+]

The week is technically Tuesday to Monday, I'll let it pass as it's internationals and the Tuesday to Monday thing is generally done based on a domestic calendar weekend.

Interesting that you can bet on Russia - we can't bet on any Russian sport at all.

[RandoEFC+]

On 11/10/2023 at 17:01, RandoEFC said:

Poland on Thursday, Portugal on Monday.

Portugal 4-0 up before half time and Poland did the business so looks like a +£15.70 for me.

[Stan]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

The week is technically Tuesday to Monday, I'll let it pass as it's internationals and the Tuesday to Monday thing is generally done based on a domestic calendar weekend.

Interesting that you can bet on Russia - we can't bet on any Russian sport at all.

Russia drew anyway. 

[Dan+]

54 minutes ago, Stan said:

Russia drew anyway. 

The question then is does Machado get a pass, a second bite due to it being an error, or do we award the loss?

I may say it just becomes a single on tomorrows game. I don't want to be picky on things but got to be consistent with everyone.

[Stan]

18 minutes ago, Dan said:

The question then is does Machado get a pass, a second bite due to it being an error, or do we award the loss?

I may say it just becomes a single on tomorrows game. I don't want to be picky on things but got to be consistent with everyone.

I'm happy to give him a pass. 

[Dan+]

On 10/10/2023 at 05:41, Dan said:

WEEK 10 - IMPROVEMENT BUT STILL DOWN

As the title explains, we see an upturn on last weeks disaster but unfortunately it's actually a negative weekend as the wins were small and only 3 of them happened. We also saw no movement in the table at all for the first time all season.

I'm sort of happy to see @Machado rewarded for delving into the most sick in the head league I've seen toyed with this season as a double chance in the Egyptian Premier League pays out, though it did turn out Smouha actually won the game 2-1 so an outright pick would've also landed, but wins are wins. I've long held a belief that research into some of these leagues can actually pay dividends so I'm glad to see it rewarded.

With an even smaller win this week was @CaaC (John) who picked two home certs in the Europa League in Liverpool and Roma and neither failed, meaning he holds onto second place.

The final winner was @RandoEFC who's asian handicaps seem to be serving him well. Leicester doing the business against Stoke and the bolder pick of Atletico Madrid being saved by a late Griezmann penalty to push it. Another small win.

@Stan's been pretty unlucky again. With the Southampton game paying out courtesy of a late Rotherham equaliser (life under Russell Martin) it would've been pretty unfortunate in my opinion for that one to lose as the stats paint complete domination. The Crawley Wrexham game was a bloodbath that had everything but goals, only the one landed, and another would've put him quite comfortable at the top of the table again.

@Pyfish hits the most annoying thing in betting in my opinion in that he lands his outside pick of Scunthorpe at above evens, yet is let down by a far shorter price in Luton v Tottenham. I could write a book on the day I had yesterday where such events occurred.

There is now unfortunately a big gap between 7th and 8th, with anybody called Dan in this game seemingly cursed. It's @...Dan who comes closer this week as the Roda pick wins, but he does seem to have a pretty unfortunate habit in this of picking teams who don't only not win, but get absolutely bashed. VVV the latest culprits, going down 3-0 to Ajax reserves and on current form you'd probably tip them to beat the first team, who were beaten again this weekend at home by AZ Alkmaar - something I wish I'd had in here.

Finally, I come to myself again. I mean given Lens didn't win either I can't whinge too much but the fact I've managed to coax a goal out of Cheltenham is just incredible. I should've known it would be Derby. They really are a comedy club nowadays.

In terms of actual single selections it's a pretty good week, but unfortunately it is still a loss on the whole albeit not a huge one.

International weekend so it's slim pickings, but maybe that's the chance to dabble into some of the more peculiar things out there. I think this is a route I'll have to go down. Anything beats this dog shit.

WEEK 10 STATS
Winning bets: 3/7 (42.9%)
Winning selections: 8/13 (61.53%)
Weekly forum position: -£16.06 (ranked 4th out of 10)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 15/71 (21.12%)
Winning selections: 57/135 (42.22%)
Total forum position: -£291.88

WEEK 11 - FISH PIES ALL ROUND

It appears my spreadsheet is corrupted. Why is there a load of green everywhere?

Week 11 becomes the best week we have had as a forum by quite a distance. We owe this largely however to the bet of @Pyfish who lands a league best profit of £77.50 with his extremely impressive double. He was made to sweat by Northern Ireland and San Marino after the hosts rushed into an early 2-0 lead, but the game largely petered out and they only added a 3rd at the death. Lincoln suffered a rare home loss to an improving Burton meaning he lands the juicy win, and meaning he will be in profit for another 4 weeks at absolute worst regardless.

@Machado is the subject in early week 12 controversy, and I have decided as a one-off as it may not have been clear that he can take his pick again as the week works from Tuesday to Monday on this, and he picked another game from the time period of week 11. I do it from Tuesday to Monday because of Monday night football games which are usually from the weekend before, and to me Monday to Tuesday does mark the new week. We'll call it a lucky escape. Luckily though for week 11 he claimed his 4th win in 6 picks, delving into the depths of the Turkish Cup to go against an out of sorts Denizlispor and go for a dour game between two teams who produce very little.

A word on @CaaC (John) though. Bloody hell. He was extremely unlucky this week and as I'd previously stated, if he'd landed a winner this week he would've finished the season, at absolute worst, assuming he lost every other remaining week - £260ish up. Turkey was a big pick and in-fact, the best single priced winner chosen all season. Scotland, we all saw what happened, extremely unlucky to not take the lead in the second half and ended up losing the game 2-0. It's unfortunately a loss this week though, and he drops in the table along with 4 others.

@RandoEFC lands another winner on the handicaps. Poland making trickier work of it with their 0-2 win in the Faroe Islands, but Portugal absolutely obliterated an abject Bosnia and the game was 0-5 by half time.

This puts him above @Stan who loses for a fifth straight week and down to his worst overall position of the season. I think you have to sympathise again here, as of his six legs of the double, five of them won at an absolute canter, he was just let down by the lack of cards in Swindon's win over Newport. Pretty unlucky again for me. @Lucas drops into the extremely low reaches of the English game, but Warrington Rylands cost him what would've been a solid win that put him back near to breakeven.

It's eleven, it's heaven. For the fucking bookies. I mean to be honest I'm not particularly angry this week, I think my logic was correct and I am a firm believer that with correctly applied logic, wins will find you. It was a pretty long shot and it came extremely close. I think under 4.5 goals is a bit of a hack. Under 4.5 goals was 8/11 as a single, yet combined with the almost certain outcome of a Northern Ireland win it boosted it pretty handily. Luxembourg's performance in Iceland wasn't brilliant, the first half was abject but they equalised immediately after half time. I think the sickening aspect here is that they missed an open goal in the 93rd minute. Such is the way for me this season. Something will land soon. I've had a pretty productive last three days on actual bets so I think it has to really.

It's our best week of the season though, largely because of Pyfish, but good choices from most people and even the losers came extremely close. Back to a proper week of the calendar for the upcoming week. Probably a delayed table from me though as I'm landing back from Norway late on Monday night. Going to watch Lillestrom v Valerenga - might even have to include something from that game on this.

 

WEEK 11 STATS
Winning bets: 3/7 (42.9%)
Winning selections: 10/14 (71.43%)
Weekly forum position: +£61.24 (ranked 1st out of 11)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 18/78 (23%)
Winning selections: 67/149 (44.97%)
Total forum position: -£230.64

[CaaC (John)+]

Championship

£10 outlay

Friday 20th Oct
Rotherham United v Ipswich Town < (win)

Saturday 21st October 
Preston North End < (win)  v Millwall

[Stan]

I like how @CaaC (John) thinks the 'bald' isn't enough so now has to code in a 'win'  

[CaaC (John)+]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

I like how @CaaC (John) thinks the 'bald' isn't enough so now has to code in a 'win'  

Old age buddy, sitting here half asleep 

[Machado]

@Dan I can take the loss mate, it's fine. I thought I could take this week's picks early even though you had not updated the table yet. I knew what I was doing and I lost the bet so it's only fair it's counted as a loss.

[Dan+]

20 hours ago, Machado said:

@Dan I can take the loss mate, it's fine. I thought I could take this week's picks early even though you had not updated the table yet. I knew what I was doing and I lost the bet so it's only fair it's counted as a loss.

No problem. Know it's a weird week schedule but I blame TV companies!

[Pyfish+]

Risky one with Tranmere and Doncaster as both are a little mix and match with their form lately. Doncaster come into this off the back of a good win against Sutton though so hopefully momentum carries then through to a second win on the bounce.

Salah to score is a easy one to go for and at a price boosted 2.00, I had to go for it. All together, a return of £47.50 would be nice!

[Stan]

 

Across all Championship games tomorrow. 

[Dan+]

6 hours ago, Stan said:

 

Across all Championship games tomorrow. 

This is going to be great to work out

You know what, I'm sure it isn't as they'll have the stats on their side, but 10 corners a game and 3 goals a game on average doesn't sound that ridiculous in this season. The Championship and League Two seem to be massively goal heavy while League One is pretty tight. 3/1 on that seems alright to me. I've always liked the idea of combined games odds. Fucks me off when I have say... an over 2.5 treble, and get scores of 4-2, 3-3 and 1-1.

The biggest threat to that may genuinely be the weather.

[Stan]

16 minutes ago, Dan said:

This is going to be great to work out

You know what, I'm sure it isn't as they'll have the stats on their side, but 10 corners a game and 3 goals a game on average doesn't sound that ridiculous in this season. The Championship and League Two seem to be massively goal heavy while League One is pretty tight. 3/1 on that seems alright to me. I've always liked the idea of combined games odds. Fucks me off when I have say... an over 2.5 treble, and get scores of 4-2, 3-3 and 1-1.

The biggest threat to that may genuinely be the weather.

It gets voided if any games are postponed/abandoned so hopefully you'll be kind enough to void it too if that occurs...  

I use Flashscore and they always have stats up to date, so shouldn't be too time-consuming  

[Dan+]

14 minutes ago, Stan said:

It gets voided if any games are postponed/abandoned so hopefully you'll be kind enough to void it too if that occurs...  

I use Flashscore and they always have stats up to date, so shouldn't be too time-consuming  

Yeah of course - I will always void it if they void it, I'll even top it up with an extra in the following week as it's only fair really.

I likewise use flash, spend way too much time pissing around on it frankly.

[Dan+]

Attempt #12

Gillingham v Notts County - over 3.5 goals @ 13/8 (2.62) - This was a case put forward on the not the top 20 podcast in that this game reeks of goals that the bookies don't seem to have quite cottoned onto. Notts County as we all know are complete chaos, registering a ridiculous 53 goals combined in their 13 games at an average of 4.07 a game, which is laughable in itself. Gillingham however have been the polar opposite, but the upper hand I think you have going for goals on this is that Neil Harris was sacked despite having them in a very respectable position in the table, the vibe around the sacking is simply the style of play, they're dour, they don't score many. Their new American owners want goals and entertainment. Their results so far under Keith Millen are 2-1, 5-1 (EFL Trophy granted) and 4-1. I'd normally only go as high as 2.5 for goal picks, but I do think with the nature of League Two so far this season, this could well go over that and the price given everything is quite kind.

Lillestrom v Valerenga - over 2.5 goals @ 7/10 (1.70) - This one is simply because I'm going to the game so don't take this as any sort of proper tip, I just felt a bit obliged to incorporate it somehow. Although I've gone for the goals angle due to the league being a pretty high scorer in general. Lillestrom average 3.25 goals a game in their games and Valerenga average 3.08, with the reverse fixture ending 4-3 to Lillestrom. I actually don't think the price is too bad really. I've somehow ended up with tickets in the away end of the biggest derby in Norway, so it should be an experience.

£10 returns £44.62.

[Lucas]

Going to try a cross match bet builder double this week.

Liverpool to win

Salah to Score or Assist

Both teams to receive a card - Yes

-------------------------------------------------------------‐---

Man City to win

Haaland to Score or Assist

Both teams to receive a card - Yes

£10 wins £46.96

Edited October 21, 2023 by Lucas

[Stan]

@Pyfish is on fire. 

[...Dan]

RKC (1.60) v Volendam

Troyes (2.00) v Concarneau

£10 returns £32.

 

[Lucas]

7 hours ago, Lucas said:

Going to try a cross match bet builder double this week.

Liverpool to win

Salah to Score or Assist

Both teams to receive a card - Yes

-------------------------------------------------------------‐---

Man City to win

Haaland to Score or Assist

Both teams to receive a card - Yes

£10 wins £46.96

Beauty, it worked 

Fair play to @Pyfish again mind, two great wins back to back.