Dan's Tipping Game

[CaaC (John)+]

£10 Double

Championship - Friday 3rd November
Leicester beating Leeds United

Premiership - Saturday 4th November
Newcastle beating Arsenal

 

[Dan+]

11 hours ago, Stan said:

Hoffenheim up 2-0  

I had a feeling about that one you know. I instinctively thought to back Stuttgart but the more I looked into it the more I thought they'd not only not win but actually lose. Very nice to see that pay off - hopefully the simpler leg will do the business, but we all know what's coming  

[Dan+]

3 hours ago, CaaC (John) said:

£10 Double

Championship - Friday 3rd November
Leicester beating Leeds United

Premiership - Saturday 4th November
Newcastle beating Arsenal

 

That's for next week, so while I'll stick this down for round 14, you've not yet had one for round 13 - so you can pick a couple of selections for Sunday or Monday too if you fancy it.

[CaaC (John)+]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

That's for next week, so while I'll stick this down for round 14, you've not yet had one for round 13 - so you can pick a couple of selections for Sunday or Monday too if you fancy it.

OK

Italian Seria A - Monday 30th October

Empoli v Atlanta
Lazio v Florentina

A £10 Double win for the teams in Bald.

[Dan+]

Think if Man CIty get a 2nd I'm finally home.

And there it is. Now no running riot  

[Dan+]

Lucky 13

[Dan+]

On 25/10/2023 at 02:43, Dan said:

WEEK 12 - NOT BAD AT ALL

Probably had the gloss taken off it by how well last week went, but this week turns in yet another solid performance and is second to only last week, with both the third and fourth best wins of the season both landing this time out.

@Pyfish is absolutely on fire, with two good wins in a row meaning he's now absolutely miles in front at the top of the table, and no matter what now he will be in profit at Christmas. Knowledge on League Two is coming in handy as the utterly inept Tranmere are swatted away even by Doncaster. Salah being evens to score against Everton at home feels unbelievably big as well, so that's a good spot.

@Machado went early with his bet this week, was offered a reprieve but didn't take it. Russia failing to beat Kenya in a friendly cost him what would've been his biggest win of the season - £12

@CaaC (John) becomes the first player this season to bet on a game that was later postponed. This voided the Ipswich selection and just turned it into a single on Preston, but unfortunately they couldn't beat newly managerless Millwall at home. Should you have gone for the Ipswich win as a single, or if somebody is to pick two games that are both postponed (which is possible given this page does like to play in the lower leagues of England) then the bet would be voided and you would get an extra one to use, but as Preston didn't win, unfortunately this can't be offered this time and it is just a loser.

@Lucas takes in his second win of the season and a pretty good one to boot - another where the odds look very generous in hindsight. Bet builders can be the way to go a lot of the time I think. He climbs two places, and hits his best actual position of the season in terms of overall balance.

@RandoEFC's asian handicaps again save him from a loss should he have gone for a flat out -1 handicap, as Barcelona could only manage the 1-0 win over Athletic. Tottenham made no mistake against Fulham though, so it's a small win, and he becomes the first player to land 5 wins this season.

@Stan's bad run continues, six losses in a row and this one frankly got nowhere near, with only 24 goals scored and to be honest after that I couldn't be bothered to work out how many corners there were. Wouldn't surprise me if that was the lowest scoring day of the season in the Championship, it's had loads of goals this season and that's pretty tame, with a 0-0 and four 1-0s. Not his day.

@...Dan loses 10/10 and let down as stated earlier by Troyes who had both an early red card and then went on to miss a penalty in a draw. One of the most infuriating losses yet, particularly after RKC Waalwijk had done the business.

I make it 12 defeats from 12, missing both of my games by a goal which was annoying. Once again I was torn on my selection on Gillingham Notts County, I fancied an away win but thought it reeked of goals more. I went to Lillestrom v Valerenga and to be honest I don't think Valerenga would've scored if they were still playing. They were abject, embarrassing and a horrible showing for their local derby. I don't suppose anybody happened to catch the banner at that game that did the rounds? Depicting their manager Geir Bakke as a rat following moving from Lillestrom during the season, a move which hasn't yet aged well. Good experience though going over there, another country ticked off.

I suppose the only thing even more perverse than my record is the one who didn't predict went up a place and somebody who actually won a bet went down, but such is the way. It's a pretty good week on the whole.

WEEK 12 STATS
Winning bets: 3/8
Winning selections: 7/13
Weekly forum position: +£31.91 (2nd/12)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 21/86
Winning selections: 74/162
Total forum position: -£198.73

WEEK 13 - LUCKY FOR SOME

Halloween has arrived on the supposedly unlucky numbered week, but you wouldn't know it looking at the league table here as we post our best week of the season, a third straight profit on the board overall, the first week where four players bag a win and remarkably, even both people called Dan winning.

It didn't quite start off so luckily though. @Pyfish came close to making it a hattrick of brilliant wins after landing a very impressive pick of Dortmund to win at Newcastle, but he couldn't overcome the Brendan Rodgers juju in the supposedly easier leg of the bet as Atletico Madrid falter on the road in the Champions League yet again.

@Machado back to winning ways with his latest in what looks a carefully selected pair of stats based picks, although the Benfica pick can only possibly be due to some cynicism at his end on his own team. He was correct to have it though. I paid the price on an accumulator for trusting Benfica to win myself as I had them with under 4.5 goals - but they couldn't even hold on late on. @Stan also paid the price as this let down his bet, after correctly landing Bayern to win and over 3.5 goals in a hilarious game that saw 3 first half red cards and Bayern hitting 8 goals in the second half.

@CaaC (John) should be donating his winnings to a certain somebody who reminded him to get a bet in for this week as his Italian double paid out to continue his relative hot streak. Atalanta smacking a woeful Empoli 0-3 but Lazio needing a 95th minute penalty to beat Fiorentina, to put him back into profit for the season.

@Lucas is let down by Accrington who lost 0-1 to Colchester after correctly backing Chesterfield to win for an 11th time in 12 games (they're very generous odds considering in my opinion).

@RandoEFC's usual asian handicap falls down this week. Juventus left it until the 97th minute to beat Verona to push all responsibility onto Brighton who didn't even beat Fulham, so it's a loss this time around.

You have to feel here for @...Dan who gets his first win of the season at the tenth time of asking yet is still sent to the bottom of the table for the first time all season. He played safe this week and Manchester City made no mistake.

Stop the world though. I've finally, finally won a bet. About pissing time too. I was wondering after how utterly perfectly my Hoffenheim pick landed that Manchester City would find a way to fuck it up, or somehow rack up the goals in injury time, but no, persistence pays off and I'm off the mark with what is the second biggest win of the entire season. I bet a lot and I think that's pretty obvious by now, and I'm back in hot form in the real thing too, so I did believe it would arrive here eventually. I'm hoping we won't have to wait the same amount of time for another - as that would take me all the way to the end of January, for some context.

It's a very strong week on the whole though, and while a big win in each of the last three weeks has helped prop things up, the numbers are starting to really shift in favour of the forum now. The last three weeks have been the best three of the season, so October has been a hot streak collectively.

 

WEEK 13 STATS
Winning bets: 4/8
Winning selections: 10/14
Weekly forum position: +£67.48 (Ranked 1/13)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 25/94
Winning selections: 84/176
Total forum position: -£131.25

[RandoEFC+]

Yeah my picks this week were a bit stinky. I thought Juventus would win but they haven't been battering teams and I got suckered in by the stereotypes with the Brighton game. Brighton haven't been in the best of form and had Thursday night syndrome to contend with while Fulham have been scraping a few results despite being incredibly poor. I actually had a tiny stake on Fulham to go there and beat Brighton that I put on a week or two back because they were about 5/1 which I thought was decent value on the off-chance.

To summarise, you can tell I was on holiday and not in the mood to research or think too hard about it this weekend .

[Machado]

Boavista to score a goal: Boavista looking decent so far, 5th best side in the country probably, have scored in every game so far except against top of the table Sporting Lisbon. Rio Ave are relegation material this season and don't know how to win a game currently. Experts at conceding goals too. I think away 'draw no bet' looks good as a single too.

Cartagena under 1.5 team total: Top vs bottom. Leganes have kept clean sheets against way stronger teams so far. I don't see how they concede two in a game that should be a low scoring affair anyway.

[Dan+]

I've just been looking at Cartagena v Leganes. I'm completely baffled. How the actual fuck are Cartagena considered favourites? It's one of them that's 'so' daft it scares me going near it.

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

I've just been looking at Cartagena v Leganes. I'm completely baffled. How the actual fuck are Cartagena considered favourites? It's one of them that's 'so' daft it scares me going near it.

I have a bet on this one as well! Feel like I'm missing something stupid. But I took draw no bet for Leganes at evens and it's closed in to 1.83 so people must be backing them. 

[Machado]

4 hours ago, Dan said:

I've just been looking at Cartagena v Leganes. I'm completely baffled. How the actual fuck are Cartagena considered favourites? It's one of them that's 'so' daft it scares me going near it.

Yea seems like a bait to be fair, I'm just hoping they don't concede two goals either way.

[Dan+]

17 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I have a bet on this one as well! Feel like I'm missing something stupid. But I took draw no bet for Leganes at evens and it's closed in to 1.83 so people must be backing them. 

 

14 hours ago, Machado said:

Yea seems like a bait to be fair, I'm just hoping they don't concede two goals either way.

Leganes outright is 2.80. I just find that absolutely mental. It's so big it feels like a trap, I'd be almost more likely to back it if it was 2.20 which I know is silly.

The only possible reason I can offer is that checking the expected goals table, Leganes are definitely running quite hot and Cartagena have been a bit unlucky. But I still think even despite this it's very hard to justify getting against Leganes here particularly when they have 12 points from their 6 away games and Cartagena have lost all 6 at home.

[RandoEFC+]

This is me for the weekend.

Glentoran have had a few iffy home results earlier on this season but won their last two home games 6-0 and 3-1. Carrick have conceded 37 goals in 14 games this season, losing 5 of their 7 away games including scorelines of 0-4, 0-9 and 1-4.

Hvidovre are newly-promoted and have 3 draws and 12 losses in their 15 games this season. They haven't necessarily been getting battered all the time but have had some heavy defeats to the stronger sides in the league. Midtjylland are unbeaten in 7 league games so should be a safe bet to at least bag a win here and hopefully by more than 1.

Going for selections this time where minimising the risk of the team not winning is my priority over looking for teams that are likely to dish out hammerings but may be less consistent.

[Dan+]

I will likely add Midtjylland to one of my accas this weekend, that is ultimately the sort of thing that made me start this a few years ago, was kind of "who has any good picks for the weekend".

My general method at the weekend is that I tend to place a series, maybe 4 or 5  accas of 3-4 teams and I'll need just one of them to win to breakeven, and I've got a pretty good hit rate, I got 14 out of 18 selections last Sunday for example. It's a method that's genuinely winning for me and has done for a good year now. I've kept a record and I've won on I think 62% of selections backed with an average price of 1.92 so I'm doing something right - makes the record in here quite funny anyway, I was quite confident I'd do well  

[Stan]

Couple of FA Cup choices. 

Both League One home opposition against quite lower non-league sides. No doubt one or both of these will be on the receiving end of a cupset

[Dan+]

London bus effect we hope.

Huddersfield v Watford - Away win @ 6/5 (2.20) - I think Watford are probably a touch better than their position suggests with gradual signs of improvement being shown without really getting the results to back it up. Their performances are taking a bit of an upturn. Huddersfield on the flip side really do look woeful under Moore, I think following Warnock is always a hard ask and to make matters worse they're missing their key player Jack Rudoni here. I think better than evens on an away win is pretty generous here to be honest, I think it's a price that would be bigger if offered later in the season.

Osnabruck v Holstein Kiel - Away win @ 11/8 (2.38) - This again just feels really generous. 17th v 4th, Osnabruck with 4 points at home to Kiel's 12 points away, vast gap on expected goals table too which I've always thought is something that will level out against performances in the long run. Basically I think Kiel are quite comfortably the better team based on the data I'm seeing and the price is above what it should be.

£10 returns £52.36.

Avoided Leganes. Too many people are on it. It scares me. I've bottled having Sheff Weds too. I've got a feeling they've caught Bristol City at a good time but it is just a bit too risky.

[Pyfish+]

Gone simple with my picks this week. Fernandes is known for getting booked for silly things and if Fulham frustrate United, his likeliness to go into a stupid challenge increases. 

As for Man City, 4 goals at most is reasonable.

[...Dan]

HSV to win and both teams to score v Magdeburg (2.50)

PEC Zwolle to beat Fortuna Sittard (2.20)

£10 returns £55.

[Lucas]

On 28/10/2023 at 22:53, CaaC (John) said:

£10 Double

Championship - Friday 3rd November
Leicester beating Leeds United

Premiership - Saturday 4th November
Newcastle beating Arsenal

 

Unlucky John.

[Stan]

23 hours ago, Stan said:

Couple of FA Cup choices. 

Both League One home opposition against quite lower non-league sides. No doubt one or both of these will be on the receiving end of a cupset

Barring a non-league miracle, we are looking good... 

[CaaC (John)+]

Round 15 - Saturday 11th Nov

Premiership
Man United v Luton Town

Championship
Ipswich v Swansea City

£10 double home win for Man United & Ipswich

 

 

 

[RandoEFC+]

On 03/11/2023 at 13:47, RandoEFC said:

This is me for the weekend.

Glentoran have had a few iffy home results earlier on this season but won their last two home games 6-0 and 3-1. Carrick have conceded 37 goals in 14 games this season, losing 5 of their 7 away games including scorelines of 0-4, 0-9 and 1-4.

Hvidovre are newly-promoted and have 3 draws and 12 losses in their 15 games this season. They haven't necessarily been getting battered all the time but have had some heavy defeats to the stronger sides in the league. Midtjylland are unbeaten in 7 league games so should be a safe bet to at least bag a win here and hopefully by more than 1.

Going for selections this time where minimising the risk of the team not winning is my priority over looking for teams that are likely to dish out hammerings but may be less consistent.

Glentoran got a red card at 2-1 up and ended up losing. ️

[Lucas]

Gonna try something different as I missed yesterday.

Watkins 2 Shots on target 11/8

Salah 2 Shots on target 1/1

Both price boosts on Skybet.

£10 wins £47.50.

Edited November 5, 2023 by Lucas

[RandoEFC+]

Should have just gone for this as my tip @Dan .

Midtjylland won 4-1 as well. Hate it when a red card ruins a bet.