Dan's Tipping Game

[CaaC (John)+]

Week 20

Premier League - Thursday 21st Dec - Crystal Palace for a win against Brighton
"           "             " -  Saturday  23rd Dec - Liverpool losing to Arsenal

 

[Dan+]

15 minutes ago, CaaC (John) said:

Week 20

Premier League - Thursday 21st Dec - Crystal Palace for a win against Brighton
"           "             " -  Saturday  23rd Dec - Liverpool losing to Arsenal

 

That's next weeks! Can have that for then though if you wish.

[CaaC (John)+]

11 minutes ago, Dan said:

That's next weeks! Can have that for then though if you wish.

OK, this weeks...

Saturday 16th Dec

AFC Bournemouth to draw Luton Town

Chelsea to beat Sheffield United

[RandoEFC+]

There are some ridiculous track records across the European leagues that I've come across but with 1 point from 14 games, Doxa of Cyprus have to be near the very worst. 11 of their 13 defeats in the league this season have been by more than a goal. Aris Limassol are sat 4th in the league and their away form is a mixed bag but I think odds of 1.5 are generous here. Aris also won their first meeting earlier in the season although it was only by a single goal.

Rudes of Croatia absolutely fall into the same category as Doxa for hilariously bad records and I think I've bet against them basically every weekend this season since I started trawling the wider leagues. No wins and four draws in eighteen league games, seven goals scored and thirty eight conceded. Rijeka are 3rd in the league with 6 wins from 9 home games, although they have had a couple of poor results with just a point from their last couple at home. With just 10 teams in the Croatian top flight, this is already their third meeting of the campaign. Rijeka won 4-0 at home and 2-1 at Rudes in their previous meetings. Don't be dicks, Rijeka.

[Stan]

Arsenal Women score for fun and can see them hitting Spurs for quite a few. 

Rotherham concede 2.5 goals per game away from home. Plymouth score just over 2 goals per game at home... 

[Lucas]

Arsenal to win, BTTS 15/8

Bayern to win, BTTS 11/8

£10 wins £68.28

[Dan+]

Ipswich to beat Norwich and BTTS @ 2/1 - first pick. It's paid out in 7/10 Ipswich home games and it just feels totally inevitable for me.

[Stan]

15 hours ago, Stan said:

Arsenal Women score for fun and can see them hitting Spurs for quite a few. 

Rotherham concede 2.5 goals per game away from home. Plymouth score just over 2 goals per game at home... 

Fail  

[Dan+]

2 hours ago, Dan said:

Ipswich to beat Norwich and BTTS @ 2/1 - first pick. It's paid out in 7/10 Ipswich home games and it just feels totally inevitable for me.

 definitely gonna start doing this to basically seal Leicester's promotion.

[...Dan]

Caen (1.90) v Dunkerque

Troyes v Angers (1.75)

£10 returns £33.40.

[RandoEFC+]

On 14/12/2023 at 21:14, RandoEFC said:

There are some ridiculous track records across the European leagues that I've come across but with 1 point from 14 games, Doxa of Cyprus have to be near the very worst. 11 of their 13 defeats in the league this season have been by more than a goal. Aris Limassol are sat 4th in the league and their away form is a mixed bag but I think odds of 1.5 are generous here. Aris also won their first meeting earlier in the season although it was only by a single goal.

Rudes of Croatia absolutely fall into the same category as Doxa for hilariously bad records and I think I've bet against them basically every weekend this season since I started trawling the wider leagues. No wins and four draws in eighteen league games, seven goals scored and thirty eight conceded. Rijeka are 3rd in the league with 6 wins from 9 home games, although they have had a couple of poor results with just a point from their last couple at home. With just 10 teams in the Croatian top flight, this is already their third meeting of the campaign. Rijeka won 4-0 at home and 2-1 at Rudes in their previous meetings. Don't be dicks, Rijeka.

Rijeka ️

[Dan+]

Crikey I'm thinking of backing Aris in a few ways. They seem a complete banker.

[RandoEFC+]

Doxa Katokopias before I'd ever heard of them:

On 14/12/2023 at 21:14, RandoEFC said:

There are some ridiculous track records across the European leagues that I've come across but with 1 point from 14 games, Doxa of Cyprus have to be near the very worst. 11 of their 13 defeats in the league this season have been by more than a goal. Aris Limassol are sat 4th in the league and their away form is a mixed bag but I think odds of 1.5 are generous here. Aris also won their first meeting earlier in the season although it was only by a single goal.

Doxa Katokopias when I make a not even risky bet against them:

[Dan+]

On 14/12/2023 at 18:24, Dan said:

WEEK 19 - GOOD GRIEF

 

WEEK 19 STATS
Winning bets: 0/7
Winning selections: 3/12
Weekly forum position: -£70.00 (Ranked 18/19)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 35/137
Winning selections: 120/260
Total forum position: -£311.48

 

I'm a bit pushed for time this week but let the table do the talking. Absolute disaster throughout. @CaaC (John) probably the main winner of the week having not predicted! Better luck next time out.

WEEK 20 - MIDDLE OF THE ROAD

 

WEEK 20 STATS
Winning bets: 2/6
Winning selections: 4/10
Weekly forum position: £14.79 (Ranked 8/20)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 37/143
Winning selections: 124/270
Total forum position: -£326.27

 

I'm slacking a little on these table updates lately but can actually delve into what went right and wrong this time out. As it turns out, it was a pretty mediocre week with the balance taking a small hit and as ever, me losing.

None of the top three played this week, although incase you miss it @Pyfish @Machado @Storts I have decided that as the game Christmas present everybody gets one £25 bet to use during the season instead of the usual £10. Call it the equivalent of triple captain. You are not obliged to use it as of course, should you use it on a loser, you will be taking an even heavier hit, but it should add an interesting angle.

We have a new smallest winner of the season in @CaaC (John) - quite the difference from the lottery tickets he was buying early season, although not entirely by design. Chelsea beat Sheffield United at odds of just 2/11 (1.18) and Bournemouth's game with Luton was abandoned following what happened to Tom Lockyer. Grim circumstances all round and all the best of luck to him, although I'm almost certain he'll be forced into retirement now. Bournemouth v Luton is settled as void and you get the win for Chelsea.

The form player of recent weeks however is @...Dan who takes the biggest win for the third time in four weeks and rises to a season high of 5th in the table. With a clear knowledge of Ligue 2 it's about time this sort of bet started paying dividends even if it is a league I find myself trying to avoid at all costs. Caen beating Dunkerque 1-0 and Angers running out 1-4 winners at Troyes.

The only two winners of the weekend however. I have to sympathise with @RandoEFC picking two what appeared to be absolute bankers to at least win their games, but in what's probably the upset of the season we've been on the end of on this forum, Doxa beat Aris Limassol 2-0 to take their tally up to 4 points from 15 games for the season. A genuine shock of a result and really one of those situations you just can't really legislate for. A freak loss. Doxa were 11/1 to win the game at home prematch.

@Stan makes the seasons first foray into the women's game and isn't rewarded. What has to be considered another pretty shock result judging by the odds was Tottenham's 1-0 win over Arsenal at 7/1, but importantly for the bet, a loss as it got nowhere near the 4 goals required. Plymouth didn't disappoint at home to Rotherham, picking up yet another victory in Devon which has seen them rewarded with losing their manager to the football black hole of Stoke City, and scoring 3 times in the process.

@Lucas went for a couple of win and BTTS picks that I actually backed for real, and I'm in dreadful form of late so I should probably hand the £10 loss to myself. Brighton's first failure to score in any competition this season away to an increasingly tricky to break down Arsenal followed by Leverkusen shutting out Frankfurt in a 3-0 win. Both of them having great seasons and both are in serious contention for their leagues now. Leverkusen have never won it!

And as ever, I finish on myself. This one can be placed in the category of a loss that I can accept as it has helped Leicester for Ipswich to not beat Norwich at home and I'd much rather it have lost on that than them winning to nil, but my god, the statistical probabilities falling against me this season really are remarkable. I really do feel like whatever I have it will lose. That's also three times out of three where I've gone early on a selection and ended up losing - it isn't paying off.

This week runs up until Chistmas Day so anything from now until then - me and my mates like to have a group bet on Christmas Day for a bit of a laugh so there are some things going on in countries not celebrating Christmas. A few leagues beginning their winter break around now, so you may be forced into the dreaded EFL. Good luck!

[CaaC (John)+]

Saturday 23rd Dec

EPL
Tottenham v Everton, Everton to win

Championship
Leeds v Ipswich, Leeds to win.

[Stan]

Time to get my act together! 

Two choices. But have opted for this one:

 

Goals a plenty amongst the home teams, and with good home form too. Combined they've scored 63 goals at home in the league. And the away sides conceding 45. The only thing I can see letting it down is that Notts County are decent opposition. 

 

This is the other one I was thinking, but choosing not to go for it:

Better odds, but more risky. Spurs could benefit from Everton playing a midweek game and with a thinner squad. 4/5 at home to win is pretty decent though, even with Everton's improvement in form. Norwich have a bit of resurgence against Sheff Weds and a draw against Ipswich, but Huddersfield can sometimes be tricky to play against which is where the main risk is. 

[Dan+]

8 hours ago, CaaC (John) said:

Saturday 23rd Dec

EPL
Tottenham v Everton, Everton to win

Championship
Leeds v Ipswich, Leeds to win.

You have already done one for this week - do you want to stick with that or do these?

[CaaC (John)+]

1 minute ago, Dan said:

You have already done one for this week - do you want to stick with that or do these?

Lol, no, scrap this one, I get lost what I picked tbh. 

[RandoEFC+]

Two away teams for me this time.

Queen's Park are in stinking form and winless in 12 since they won their first three games of the season. They've lost 4 of their last 6 at home, 3 of those by more than a goal. They host promotion chasing Dundee Utd who suffered their first league defeat of the season just last weekend. Relegated from the Premier League last season, Dundee Utd have won 6 of their 7 away games so far this season, only failing at league leaders Raith, and 4 of those wins have been by more than a goal. Dundee Utd also won their previous meeting this season 4-1. Surprised by this price to be honest.

My second pick is a much shorter price but the best price of any of my 'dead certs' for the next few days of football. Eupen are on a run of just 1 win in 13 and have slipped into the Belgian Pro League relegation spots after a strong start to the season. 7 of their 10 losses during this run have been by 2 or more goals. Union Saint Gilloise are flying with 11 wins and a draw from their last 12 games putting them 8 points clear at the top of the league. They've won by more than a goal in 4 of their last 6 away games and, like Dundee Utd, can brag a 4-1 win against this opponent earlier on this season.

[RandoEFC+]

This is not related to the game but I swear I'm going to hate these Doxa pricks for life .

[Dan+]

46 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

This is not related to the game but I swear I'm going to hate these Doxa pricks for life .

Genuine question, are you up or down this season? You're looking in some right funny places here and I quite like it. I'm convinced there's an edge here somewhere.

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

Genuine question, are you up or down this season? You're looking in some right funny places here and I quite like it. I'm convinced there's an edge here somewhere.

Slightly down this season. Slightly up over the last month. I still keep changing my method. The maths background takes me so far but knowing which bets to choose is something that still needs work. I'm still experimenting. I keep meaning to start trying something different in this thread because in my general betting I'm doing better on corners and cards than I am on goals or match results/Asian handicaps.

[Dan+]

 

This weeks offering..

Sampdoria v Feralpisalo - This one is a bit based around form and expected goals. Sampdoria are managed by Andrea Pirlo and a look to the underlying data tells me that he's playing the same kamikaze football that he played in Turkey when his team were a BTTS banker almost weekly with the highest combined expected goals for and against in the division, and it appears looking at Sampdoria it isn't loads different. They have won 5 of their last 6 games so things look to be clicking a bit for who were one of the promotion favourites, at home to bottom side Feralpisalo. Sampdoria have 12 points at home to Feralpisalo's 5 points away. The over 1.5 goal boost adds quite a bit to the price, and I can only assume that it's due to it being in a traditionally low scoring league in the Serie B.

Carlisle v Cheltenham - This has been driven pretty much entirely by the circles I follow but they're quite high on Cheltenham's improvement under Darrell Clarke and went with them to beat Leyton Orient last week. They lost, but they did have a first half red card and were leading the game despite this until the 89th minute, so I would say while that one lost, they are probably worth getting on board with and their price is boosted due to their laughably bad start. Carlisle are in pretty dire form with just 1 win in 8. I think the price given all of this on a Cheltenham win is pretty generous.

[Pyfish+]

Going for my £25 bet.

 

[Dan+]

18 hours ago, Dan said:

 

This weeks offering..

Sampdoria v Feralpisalo - This one is a bit based around form and expected goals. Sampdoria are managed by Andrea Pirlo and a look to the underlying data tells me that he's playing the same kamikaze football that he played in Turkey when his team were a BTTS banker almost weekly with the highest combined expected goals for and against in the division, and it appears looking at Sampdoria it isn't loads different. They have won 5 of their last 6 games so things look to be clicking a bit for who were one of the promotion favourites, at home to bottom side Feralpisalo. Sampdoria have 12 points at home to Feralpisalo's 5 points away. The over 1.5 goal boost adds quite a bit to the price, and I can only assume that it's due to it being in a traditionally low scoring league in the Serie B.

Carlisle v Cheltenham - This has been driven pretty much entirely by the circles I follow but they're quite high on Cheltenham's improvement under Darrell Clarke and went with them to beat Leyton Orient last week. They lost, but they did have a first half red card and were leading the game despite this until the 89th minute, so I would say while that one lost, they are probably worth getting on board with and their price is boosted due to their laughably bad start. Carlisle are in pretty dire form with just 1 win in 8. I think the price given all of this on a Cheltenham win is pretty generous.

I truly am cursed in this thread there's no other explanation for it. A Sampdoria first half red FFS.