The Big Middle Eastern Thread

[Spike]

15 hours ago, Goku de la Boca said:

That sounds a lot like the China PR vs China (Taiwan) situation tbh.

I see where you are coming from but not really. The thing about Taiwan is that it’s the losing side of the  civil war, it’s a government in exile, that claims legitimacy over the entirety of China, as China claims sovereignty over Taiwan. To support Taiwan is claim that the government of China is illegitimate and vice versa. I think there is no issue with sovereignty with Armenia-Turkey, it’s just Turkey throws a fit when the Armenian Genocide is acknowledged, and it’s weird that people skip over the Greek Genocide, when addressing the former.
 

Taiwan is kinda fucked up too, they went through massive human rights atrocities when it was established. Check out the ‘White Terror’. 

[Goku de la Boca]

7 minutes ago, Spike said:

I see where you are coming from but not really. The thing about Taiwan is that it’s the losing side of the  civil war, it’s a government in exile, that claims legitimacy over the entirety of China, as China claims sovereignty over Taiwan. To support Taiwan is claim that the government of China is illegitimate and vice versa. I think there is no issue with sovereignty with Armenia-Turkey, it’s just Turkey throws a fit when the Armenian Genocide is acknowledged, and it’s weird that people skip over the Greek Genocide, when addressing the former.
 

Taiwan is kinda fucked up too, they went through massive human rights atrocities when it was established. Check out the ‘White Terror’. 

For sure, I am pretty certain there are a lot of governments that prefer Taiwan but it just isn't worth losing the benefits with mainland China. They are just too powerful over tiny Taiwan. 

As for White Terror, that sounds like a worse version of the protests in the late 20th century in mainland China. No good guys in any of the governments then  

[Spike]

41 minutes ago, Goku de la Boca said:

For sure, I am pretty certain there are a lot of governments that prefer Taiwan but it just isn't worth losing the benefits with mainland China. They are just too powerful over tiny Taiwan. 

As for White Terror, that sounds like a worse version of the protests in the late 20th century in mainland China. No good guys in any of the governments then  

They don’t ‘prefer’ Taiwan, they prefer Taiwan’s microchip production capacity. 
 

You are right, there are no ‘good guys’, but what are the intentions? For China it was to lift a country out what basically still was agrarian feudalism and colonialism, or Taiwan; to maintain their own power and hegemony at the cost of its people that governed? Yes China fucked up and a lot of people suffered, but unfortunately that was the normal reality in China for the time like it or not, this was a country used to civil wars, famines, and the UK getting it’s people addicted to opium. China has gone through a lot in 70 years but the average Chinese person would be far better off now.

[MUFC]

https://news.sky.com/story/gary-lineker-match-of-the-day-host-removes-social-media-post-calling-for-israel-to-be-banned-from-football-13049378

[Dr. Gonzo]

14 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

The strike by Iran in Pakistan will only cause diplomatic row but stupid move by Iran. 

 

Sounds like Pakistani’s army quietly supported Iran’s strikes without telling the politicians in control about it though. I doubt anything comes of it - at the end of the day both Iran and Pakistan agree they want the Baluchi separatists quashed.

Both governments also are basically China’s testicle polishers in the region, so I can’t see China being too keen on them fighting.

[Beelzebub]

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Sounds like Pakistani’s army quietly supported Iran’s strikes without telling the politicians in control about it though. I doubt anything comes of it - at the end of the day both Iran and Pakistan agree they want the Baluchi separatists quashed.

Both governments also are basically China’s testicle polishers in the region, so I can’t see China being too keen on them fighting.

It's about optics. They need to do something as a response.

Agree on the second part

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

It's about optics. They need to do something as a response.

Agree on the second part

Well they’ve just done something as a response.

Now let’s watch what a bunch of irate mullah clowns pretending to be a government do next lol

[Michael]

6 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Well they’ve just done something as a response.

Now let’s watch what a bunch of irate mullah clowns pretending to be a government do next lol

Aren't both governments targeting rebel groups in the Baluchistan region? Not sure how irate the mullah's are going to be, I am sure deep down they are happy that the rebels are being targeted by both sides.

[Beelzebub]

100% on point about Baluchistan being a difficult terrain.

Even the British never tried to bring those parts fully under their control bcz they are sparsely populated with hostile terrain. If British with an Empire didn't bother about it then expecting cash strapped countries like Pak Iran to invest as much resources in those parts as their main population hubs is not realistic. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, Michael said:

Aren't both governments targeting rebel groups in the Baluchistan region? Not sure how irate the mullah's are going to be, I am sure deep down they are happy that the rebels are being targeted by both sides.

Yeah there's some people online speculating Pakistan's army (but not the politician running the government) are coordinating with the IRGC so they can both strike at separatist groups without taking the blame for bombing their own land. But some people are saying an IRGC base was hit yesterday, and if that's the case... the mullahs will definitely be irate that their prize thugs were targeted in retaliation.

Iran's state media's done very little reporting about Pakistan's retaliation, so piecing together what's actually happened is dependent on Pakistan's statements and from eyewitness accounts. But some reports are saying that none of the victims of Pakistan's strikes are Iranian citizens, which is in direct conflict with the reporting that a IRGC base was hit.

Kind of hard to sift out what's real from the bullshit, unfortunately. But we do know that Pakistan's ambassador to Iran was summoned and I don't think that happens if the clowns in charge of Iran aren't pissed off about it.

[6666]

On 17/01/2024 at 16:47, MUFC said:

https://news.sky.com/story/gary-lineker-match-of-the-day-host-removes-social-media-post-calling-for-israel-to-be-banned-from-football-13049378

Western hypocrisy when it comes to "sanctioning" can be exposed extremely easily but unfortunately that doesn't change anything. Everyone knew the moral grandstanding of politicians over Russia invading Ukraine was nonsense and that it doesn't apply to genocidal allies.

[6666]

On 13/01/2024 at 00:27, Carnivore Chris said:

Shouldn't you be out pulling statues down or gluing your head to the road or something? 

Definitely plenty of statues that need tearing down. Especially of that Hitler adjacent war criminal, Winston Churchill. 

[Beelzebub]

Even if Nethanyahu goes Messianic Zionism is here to stay

[Beelzebub]

Western countries cut aid of UN agency providing relief work in Gaza over Israeli 'allegation' its 12 memebers were involved with Hamas. If you were wondering why a lot of countries were indifferent to Ukraine, not that they hate Ukraine or like Russia.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

On 27/01/2024 at 19:21, Beelzebub said:

Western countries cut aid of UN agency providing relief work in Gaza over Israeli 'allegation' its 12 memebers were involved with Hamas. If you were wondering why a lot of countries were indifferent to Ukraine, not that they hate Ukraine or like Russia.

 

Has anyone told Talha Ahmad that Israel, and the Middle East generally, is actually in the northern hemisphere?

[Spike]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Has anyone told Talha Ahmad that Israel, and the Middle East generally, is actually in the northern hemisphere?

He is talking about Australia and New Zealand

[Beelzebub]

Daily reminder whether it's Nethanyahu Putin or Bush decision to start a war can be an individual decision but how it is conducted is always a collective institutional approach. 

[OrangeKhrush]

war is an establishment ideal, the UK and US talking active drafting.  Nancy declaring anyone that doesn't want to sign up to die for Ukraine a traitor.   right now we can all see the plan, the NWO demands your fielty and in return you get to die so they can make money off your death.

Iran may have nukes and so we need to attack, why do I get the nagging feeling that I've seen this movie before.  

As for Iran being a boogie Man, like Russia, they are poor and struggling against Isis K. Iran have absolutely no bite.  I think civil insurrection is more likely than Iran launching any kind of military offensive.

as for Benny, he won't even be in power by the time the war ends

[OrangeKhrush]

On 19/01/2024 at 02:06, 6666 said:

Definitely plenty of statues that need tearing down. Especially of that Hitler adjacent war criminal, Winston Churchill. 

Winston Churchill a war criminal?  this is quite a stretch, it should be quite insulting to any British person 

[Michael]

21 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Has anyone told Talha Ahmad that Israel, and the Middle East generally, is actually in the northern hemisphere?

It's categorised as the Global South in political terms. That's what it's defined as, it's not just this guy saying it.

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, Michael said:

It's categorised as the Global South in political terms. That's what it's defined as, it's not just this guy saying it.

Bit of a weird political term then 

[Michael]

18 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Bit of a weird political term then 

Yep, the Global South countries are mainly defined as regards to their socioeconomics and politics apparently. 

Edited January 30 by Michael

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Iran have absolutely no bite.

Hmm... I don't know about that. Ask Israel, Syria, Yemen, or Lebanon if they have no bite. Their foreign policy is based on challenging US hegemony and causing as much instability as possible to further their influence - for them the Cold War never ended. Hell, even ask Ukraine if Iran has no bite. Turns out Iran's cheaply made drones are easy to mass produce and difficult to defend against. They've also got a massive missile arsenal.

It's a government that's spent far more on it's military than it's spent on trying to actually make the country a good place to actually live in. It's a military that's more combat tested than most in the region because of decades of combat experience fighting ISIS and other salafist terror groups in Syria and Iraq, with a massive network of proxy forces that have been brainwashed into thinking it's a good idea to serve as cannon fodder. They're not struggling against ISIS-K either, despite the recent attack on those mourners for Soleimani the kotlet.

I find it bizarre too, given your support of Israel, to sort of dismiss the threat Iran has very clearly posed to Israel. Hamas are an Iran and Qatar proxy - have you already forgotten October 7th? Hezbollah are Iran's largest proxy and are probably the greatest threat to Israel's security if activated considering how many advanced missiles have been supplied to them by Iran since their last war with Israel (which did end in a stalemate, despite Hezbollah suffering worse losses. Meanwhile Iran's proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, are interfering with global shipping and raising the cost of goods for all of us around the world by interfering with the route from Asia to Europe, in the name of resistance against the US, UK, and Israel.

The war in Ukraine meant that the EU and UK really turned a blind eye to the anti-government movement in Iran. Keeping the oil flowing and not doing anything to fuck with the global price of oil was deemed too valuable to consider taking any sort of stand with regard to human rights. And that's even despite Iran supplying these drones that have turned out to be very effective in modern combat despite being cheap and technologically basic drones, to Russia, for Russia to deploy with great success in Ukraine.

And now Russia's asked their closest partner in the Middle East to create as much instability as possible, knowing that 1.) proxy groups give Iran that level of plausible deniability, 2.) Iran's a tough country to invade because of it's terrain, 3.) US appetite for a war in the Middle East is incredibly low and no US president wants to start a war in an election year.

So this is really just the international community reaping what it sows when it's picking and choosing what human rights issues they actually care about while really focusing on economic issues instead. If you let brutal autocrats take an inch, they'll think they're entitled to a mile and they'll keep escalating to get what they want.

[OrangeKhrush]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Hmm... I don't know about that. Ask Israel, Syria, Yemen, or Lebanon if they have no bite. Their foreign policy is based on challenging US hegemony and causing as much instability as possible to further their influence - for them the Cold War never ended. Hell, even ask Ukraine if Iran has no bite. Turns out Iran's cheaply made drones are easy to mass produce and difficult to defend against. They've also got a massive missile arsenal.

It's a government that's spent far more on it's military than it's spent on trying to actually make the country a good place to actually live in. It's a military that's more combat tested than most in the region because of decades of combat experience fighting ISIS and other salafist terror groups in Syria and Iraq, with a massive network of proxy forces that have been brainwashed into thinking it's a good idea to serve as cannon fodder. They're not struggling against ISIS-K either, despite the recent attack on those mourners for Soleimani the kotlet.

I find it bizarre too, given your support of Israel, to sort of dismiss the threat Iran has very clearly posed to Israel. Hamas are an Iran and Qatar proxy - have you already forgotten October 7th? Hezbollah are Iran's largest proxy and are probably the greatest threat to Israel's security if activated considering how many advanced missiles have been supplied to them by Iran since their last war with Israel (which did end in a stalemate, despite Hezbollah suffering worse losses. Meanwhile Iran's proxy in Yemen, the Houthis, are interfering with global shipping and raising the cost of goods for all of us around the world by interfering with the route from Asia to Europe, in the name of resistance against the US, UK, and Israel.

The war in Ukraine meant that the EU and UK really turned a blind eye to the anti-government movement in Iran. Keeping the oil flowing and not doing anything to fuck with the global price of oil was deemed too valuable to consider taking any sort of stand with regard to human rights. And that's even despite Iran supplying these drones that have turned out to be very effective in modern combat despite being cheap and technologically basic drones, to Russia, for Russia to deploy with great success in Ukraine.

And now Russia's asked their closest partner in the Middle East to create as much instability as possible, knowing that 1.) proxy groups give Iran that level of plausible deniability, 2.) Iran's a tough country to invade because of it's terrain, 3.) US appetite for a war in the Middle East is incredibly low and no US president wants to start a war in an election year.

So this is really just the international community reaping what it sows when it's picking and choosing what human rights issues they actually care about while really focusing on economic issues instead. If you let brutal autocrats take an inch, they'll think they're entitled to a mile and they'll keep escalating to get what they want.

Despite Iran's perceived strength their military comprises of grossly inferior soviet era equipment that is dated,  add in a dying economy you can't fight foreign wars if you cant supply your army.   Their threat is proxy war and supporting terrorist groups however Iran's lack of support is mostly driven by an inability to make war against militaries that are superior. 

ISIS K is rapidly growing,  they are essentially the Taliban who have a malevolent dislike for Iranians,  they are just another destabilising factor along with a general public that is in a state of rebellion.   If coalition forces move in numbers,  there is nothing Iran can do to stop them,  they will suffer the same fate Iraq did. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

8 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Despite Iran's perceived strength their military comprises of grossly inferior soviet era equipment that is dated,  add in a dying economy you can't fight foreign wars if you cant supply your army.   Their threat is proxy war and supporting terrorist groups however Iran's lack of support is mostly driven by an inability to make war against militaries that are superior. 

ISIS K is rapidly growing,  they are essentially the Taliban who have a malevolent dislike for Iranians,  they are just another destabilising factor along with a general public that is in a state of rebellion.   If coalition forces move in numbers,  there is nothing Iran can do to stop them,  they will suffer the same fate Iraq did. 

None of that is really accurate though other than ISIS K growing and them being the same sort of scum as the Taliban. Most of Iran's military tech is domestically produced, other than their planes and some of their AA, where they are using modern day Russian tech & very old pre-revolution US tech. The IRGC has essential free reign over Iran's economy. So while normal people are suffering under the economic conditions, the military isn't either.

The IRGC just launched 4 satellites into space recently. That's not indicative of a military that thinks it doesn't have the resources to fight a defensive war - and if Iran's actual military is fighting western forces, it would be a defensive war. The only way sepah gets involved in foreign wars is if it's fighting ISIS (and similar groups) in bordering countries - which is self-defense when you consider what ISIS (and similar groups) think about Persians and Shias.

Iran put more of its troops on the line fighting ISIS than any other country, ISIS-K is just another ISIS subgroup in another bordering country for them to deal with. Iran isn't Iraq for a number of reasons, but the biggest reason why ISIS is unlikely to spread the same way it did in Iraq is because there isn't the same power vacuum in Iraq as there was after the US went into Iraq with no plan whatsoever. ISIS and its subgroups are a security threat to Iran, the same was Hamas and Hezbollah are a security threat to Israel. But they're not an existential threat. Much like the Houthis aren't a threat to the Saudis, despite having made the Saudi puppet government of Yemen history.