Russia and Ukraine

[Dr. Gonzo]

7 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

i tend to ask myself if a army outnumbered the other 7 to 1, why are they constantly asking for munitions and vehicles.  

Pretty sure Russia's military outnumbers Ukraine's without even accounting for the PMCs

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Pretty sure Russia's military outnumbers Ukraine's without even accounting for the PMCs

Only if you include the actual Russian military,  the one that Putin faces opposition within to deploy.   Last February 140 000 troops were sent mostly PMC's and Reservist  army,  their hasn't been a major redeployment.   Ukraine last February had around 750 000 enlisted men.   Its about 7 to 1. 

[OrangeKhrush]

the nutters are now actually talking about tactical nuclear weapons.  can we please get adults back in charge.   can we get no war loonies like Trump back,  I have no desire to die for American profits

[Dr. Gonzo]

Cluster munitions should probably be considered a war crime universally - but they're not because international law is arbitrary and weird. Having said that, the US, Ukraine, and Russia all don't consider cluster munitions illegal. Ukraine and Russia have both been using them the entirety of the war (Russia's even used them on civilian targets).

It's morally reprehensible, but war is generally morally reprehensible. But is it so controversial that 3 nations that don't consider these morally reprehensible weapons illegal, are involved in warfare & transferring of said morally reprehensible weapons?

And I'm pretty sure Russia's been talking about nuclear weapons and destroying nuclear plants for longer than anyone in the west has talked about using tactical weapons - it's all saber rattling anyways unless the US is gambling with everyone's lives that Russian nukes aren't functional. And that would be insane, so I doubt that anyone's thinking that.

[OrangeKhrush]

3 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Cluster munitions should probably be considered a war crime universally - but they're not because international law is arbitrary and weird. Having said that, the US, Ukraine, and Russia all don't consider cluster munitions illegal. Ukraine and Russia have both been using them the entirety of the war (Russia's even used them on civilian targets).

It's morally reprehensible, but war is generally morally reprehensible. But is it so controversial that 3 nations that don't consider these morally reprehensible weapons illegal, are involved in warfare & transferring of said morally reprehensible weapons?

And I'm pretty sure Russia's been talking about nuclear weapons and destroying nuclear plants for longer than anyone in the west has talked about using tactical weapons - it's all saber rattling anyways unless the US is gambling with everyone's lives that Russian nukes aren't functional. And that would be insane, so I doubt that anyone's thinking that.

Russia have waffled idle threats, the kind that make any rational person sigh and move on with life, in the words of Gorbachev, a nuclear war is one nobody wins, even for Putin it's a zero sum as if he was really misanthropic he would have done it already hence he is not unhinged enough to use them.

The US are actually talking about it in Pentagon round table discussions, the same ones that led to Blinkens statement that if they don't send cluster bombs, Ukraine will be out of ammo, which to me I funny.

At least Turkey have the common sense to block a Ukraine NATO move as it will compel a course of action that will lead to WW3.

we know America is looking for another war and they really wanted to go to war with Iran, though they seem to be spoiling for a fight with China.

[Dr. Gonzo]

22 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

Russia have waffled idle threats, the kind that make any rational person sigh and move on with life, in the words of Gorbachev, a nuclear war is one nobody wins, even for Putin it's a zero sum as if he was really misanthropic he would have done it already hence he is not unhinged enough to use them.

The US are actually talking about it in Pentagon round table discussions, the same ones that led to Blinkens statement that if they don't send cluster bombs, Ukraine will be out of ammo, which to me I funny.

At least Turkey have the common sense to block a Ukraine NATO move as it will compel a course of action that will lead to WW3.

we know America is looking for another war and they really wanted to go to war with Iran, though they seem to be spoiling for a fight with China.

The thing is America really doesn't need to look for another war with Ukraine. They get to have high military spending like they're at war, replenishing their stock of what's sold to Ukraine as well as just selling arms directly from the manufacturer to Ukraine. So to your last point, I think especially after the Afghanistan disaster... appetite for the US to be involved in yet another middle eastern war (although everyone seems to forget the US military's still been active in Syria and Yemen) is pretty low. I don't think a war with China will ever happen as China's strength is that the US (and West) relies on it economically, but by the same token China relies on the west economically. I think Russia's given them a first hand glimpse at how quickly things can turn if they tried to "retake" Taiwan. And now China's got 2 international trade partners that are wholly reliant on them in Russia and Iran.

So America has all the "benefit" of war in its military industry complex... all while not actually being at war. That's probably ideal to most US politicians, which is why even republicans other than the MAGA bunch seem to be completely fine with the US supporting Ukraine. So ultimately, if this escalates... it's all going to be down to what Putin does next. Remember, he was not forced to invade Ukraine - he made a calculated decision to invade and annex Crimea, he made a further calculated decision to go ahead an invade the rest of Ukraine.

The US has been talking about responding to Russia's threat of nuclear weapons as early as June 2022, though considering statements made by the head of the CIA William Burns. A US general's even said if Russia does use nuclear weapons the US might not even respond with their own nuclear arsenal. And keep in mind, the US isn't storing nukes in Ukraine (like Russia is in Belarus). Some have suggested NATO wouldn't even respond unless radiation blows over into a NATO country (which it probably would) and that it's more likely that it opens up every Russian military asset as a target of conventional weapons (which NATO really has no shortage of, thanks to the US). Pretty sure Blinken's talking about Ukraine's cluster bomb ammunition too - because again, Ukraine and Russia have been using cluster bombs the whole time. Russia, as you'd expect, has more than Ukraine did.

Interestingly enough, googling "US discussing tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine" just brings back hits of US officials speaking abut the possibility of Putin ordering tactical nukes to be used in Ukraine. What the US does next is all dependent on Putin's Russia, the ball is in his court.

[OrangeKhrush]

https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/they-lied-about-afghanistan-they

Pulitzer winner Chris Hedges on the conflict.  

It is well articulated in this blog where again "leaders elect" are only interested in war.

both sides of the aisles are unanimously in support of wars, well except for Trump, RFK and Vivek Ramaswamy....war, war never changes.

US instigated conflict by expansionist policies, in violation of the Minsk acords, helped overthrow a legitimately democratically elected leader who refused to join NATO to ensure solidarity on both sides to help elect a dictator that imprisons political rivals, journalists and terrorises people with his Gestapo Azovs.   Maybe Nancy can tell us what democracy is again.

Edited July 19, 2023 by OrangeKhrush

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, OrangeKhrush said:

US instigated conflict by expansionist policies, in violation of the Minsk acords

I too remember when the US invaded and annexed Crimea.

Oh... wait...

[Tommy]

2 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/they-lied-about-afghanistan-they

Pulitzer winner Chris Hedges on the conflict.  

It is well articulated in this blog where again "leaders elect" are only interested in war.

both sides of the aisles are unanimously in support of wars, well except for Trump, RFK and Vivek Ramaswamy....war, war never changes.

US instigated conflict by expansionist policies, in violation of the Minsk acords, helped overthrow a legitimately democratically elected leader who refused to join NATO to ensure solidarity on both sides to help elect a dictator that imprisons political rivals, journalists and terrorises people with his Gestapo Azovs.   Maybe Nancy can tell us what democracy is again.

For fucks sake, stop it with the Russell Brand videos if you ever should have the faint hope that someone will take you seriously. 

[OrangeKhrush]

14 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I too remember when the US invaded and annexed Crimea.

Oh... wait...

what agitated that? oh wait.

Russia is guilty and will have to pay the bill at some point, but to act like NATO didn't want this for their own benefit is naive.

for the very lefties that talk about territorial ancestry Ukraine never existed it was the USSR, by default Crimea, these were taken from Russia like Taiwan from China by powers with no moral authority, the situation was fine for many decades until along came the spider in the story.   

we need the elections to happen soon before Biden leads us into a nuclear apocalypse.

The only likely terms would be Russia keeps the annexed Donbass and Crimea, Ukraine doesn't join NATO but rather BRICS, ethnic Russians in Ukraine are not treated like second class citizens and Russia to pay and help clean the battlefields of all mines and unexploded ordinances.

[Azeem]

The blockade of Black Sea will be a serious thing to show who is boss. Ukraine has given a similar statement that they will consider any ship going to Russian ports potential military cargo.
 

So far the boss is Turkey courtesy having control over the straits leading to the Black Sea. 

[Michael]

8 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

what agitated that? oh wait.

Russia is guilty and will have to pay the bill at some point, but to act like NATO didn't want this for their own benefit is naive.

for the very lefties that talk about territorial ancestry Ukraine never existed it was the USSR, by default Crimea, these were taken from Russia like Taiwan from China by powers with no moral authority, the situation was fine for many decades until along came the spider in the story.   

we need the elections to happen soon before Biden leads us into a nuclear apocalypse.

The only likely terms would be Russia keeps the annexed Donbass and Crimea, Ukraine doesn't join NATO but rather BRICS, ethnic Russians in Ukraine are not treated like second class citizens and Russia to pay and help clean the battlefields of all mines and unexploded ordinances.

"Russia is guilty", talk about stating the obvious. Whatever NATO has done in the past, it never justified what Russia has done to Ukraine.

I am personally not a lefty, those who've supported Russia in this brutal war tend to be leftys. But ethnic Ukrainians have a long and distinct history from Russians. They have fought for their independence for centuries. Despite the huge powerful states surrounding them, the Ukrainians managed to form several independent states over the centuries, one of the earliest was the Cossack Hetmenate, from the mid-1648 to 1764. At the beginning of the 20th century, you had the Ukrainian's People's Republic and there was also the West Ukrainian People's Republic. Moreover, there were other additional short lived independent Ukrainian states, so the struggle for independence by ethnic Ukrainians has a long history. So independent Ukrainian states did exist and ethnic Ukrainians definitely do exist and so does their rich heritage and ancestry. 

They exist the same way that the Scottish, Irish, Welsh and Cornish exist. Just because the first 3 ethnic groups now have their own countries, doesn't mean that the Cornish don't exist, as the Cornish are their own distinct ethnic group with a well known history.

Back to Ukraine, the historical territories of where Ukrainians lived go beyond Ukraine's current borders. You have huge numbers of ethnic Ukrainians living in Russia in the regions that border Ukraine. The same applies to the countries that border the west of Ukraine. What you have to understand, is that there is a very long history of bad blood between Ukrainians and Russians. Yes, sure, both groups are closely related, but they are nonetheless distinct and the Russians have suppressed Ukrainians and Ukrainian independence for centuries. When Ukraine finally achieved a long lasting independence from the Soviet Union(Russia) in the early 90's, you can imagine how elated they were and how most of them are now of the opinion that every inch of Ukrainian sovereign territory must be taken back from Russian control.

You say that Crimea was taken from Russia, was the Donbass(Donetsk and Luhansk) also taken from Russia? I hasten to remind you, that there was a Ukrainian Independence Referendum in 1991, where the majority of every single Ukrainian Oblast(equivalent to our Counties), voted to be a part of the new independent Ukraine. That included Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. In fact, the overwhelming majority of people in each respective oblast of Ukraine voted for to be a part of independent Ukraine. So the people of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea voted to be a part of Ukraine instead of Russia. 

This war is terrible and to see so many innocent women and kids killed by the Russians is dreadful. It is impacting every single person in Ukraine in a negative way. It is Russia who started this war and it is up to the Ukrainians to decide what to do going forward. But I can tell you that almost every Ukrainian I know, has said that they need to continue this war until the Russians are completely kicked out of their lands. The latest poll that was done, showed that 70% of Ukrainians want to fight until they defeat the Russians and regain their sovereign territory. 

Talk about Russians who have lived in Ukraine being treated like 2nd class citizens is the worst joke I have ever heard. The Russian propaganda on this issue has clearly worked on too many people. Even when Russia first caused troubles in Ukraine back in 2014, Russians in Ukraine were not discriminated against at all. I have Russian friends in Ukraine who were enjoying their lives and were treated like any other Ukrainian. Russian was freely spoken all around the country. Russians had all the freedoms that ethnic Ukrainians had, despite Ukraine fighting a war in the east of Ukraine against Russian backed separatists and despite the fact that Crimea was taken from them by Russia.

Needless to say, since the brutal attack on all of Ukraine by Russia on February 24th, 2022, this ongoing war has clearly sewn animosity between many Ukrainians and Russians. However, the animosity seems to be mainly directed at the Russians who support Putin's regime. Many Russians who have lived in Ukraine for decades, support Ukraine in their fight against the aggressor in the East. If there is any ill feeling by Ukrainians towards Russians today, it is because of what Putin and those in the Kremlin started on the 24th of February 2022.

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

The blockade of Black Sea will be a serious thing to show who is boss. Ukraine has given a similar statement that they will consider any ship going to Russian ports potential military cargo.
 

So far the boss is Turkey courtesy having control over the straits leading to the Black Sea. 

Turkey still favour outcomes that involve a diplomatic ceasefire.

1 hour ago, Michael said:

"Russia is guilty", talk about stating the obvious. Whatever NATO has done in the past, it never justified what Russia has done to Ukraine.

I am personally not a lefty, those who've supported Russia in this brutal war tend to be leftys. But ethnic Ukrainians have a long and distinct history from Russians. They have fought for their independence for centuries. Despite the huge powerful states surrounding them, the Ukrainians managed to form several independent states over the centuries, one of the earliest was the Cossack Hetmenate, from the mid-1648 to 1764. At the beginning of the 20th century, you had the Ukrainian's People's Republic and there was also the West Ukrainian People's Republic. Moreover, there were other additional short lived independent Ukrainian states, so the struggle for independence by ethnic Ukrainians has a long history. So independent Ukrainian states did exist and ethnic Ukrainians definitely do exist and so does their rich heritage and ancestry. 

They exist the same way that the Scottish, Irish, Welsh and Cornish exist. Just because the first 3 ethnic groups now have their own countries, doesn't mean that the Cornish don't exist, as the Cornish are their own distinct ethnic group with a well known history.

Back to Ukraine, the historical territories of where Ukrainians lived go beyond Ukraine's current borders. You have huge numbers of ethnic Ukrainians living in Russia in the regions that border Ukraine. The same applies to the countries that border the west of Ukraine. What you have to understand, is that there is a very long history of bad blood between Ukrainians and Russians. Yes, sure, both groups are closely related, but they are nonetheless distinct and the Russians have suppressed Ukrainians and Ukrainian independence for centuries. When Ukraine finally achieved a long lasting independence from the Soviet Union(Russia) in the early 90's, you can imagine how elated they were and how most of them are now of the opinion that every inch of Ukrainian sovereign territory must be taken back from Russian control.

You say that Crimea was taken from Russia, was the Donbass(Donetsk and Luhansk) also taken from Russia? I hasten to remind you, that there was a Ukrainian Independence Referendum in 1991, where the majority of every single Ukrainian Oblast(equivalent to our Counties), voted to be a part of the new independent Ukraine. That included Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea. In fact, the overwhelming majority of people in each respective oblast of Ukraine voted for to be a part of independent Ukraine. So the people of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea voted to be a part of Ukraine instead of Russia. 

This war is terrible and to see so many innocent women and kids killed by the Russians is dreadful. It is impacting every single person in Ukraine in a negative way. It is Russia who started this war and it is up to the Ukrainians to decide what to do going forward. But I can tell you that almost every Ukrainian I know, has said that they need to continue this war until the Russians are completely kicked out of their lands. The latest poll that was done, showed that 70% of Ukrainians want to fight until they defeat the Russians and regain their sovereign territory. 

Talk about Russians who have lived in Ukraine being treated like 2nd class citizens is the worst joke I have ever heard. The Russian propaganda on this issue has clearly worked on too many people. Even when Russia first caused troubles in Ukraine back in 2014, Russians in Ukraine were not discriminated against at all. I have Russian friends in Ukraine who were enjoying their lives and were treated like any other Ukrainian. Russian was freely spoken all around the country. Russians had all the freedoms that ethnic Ukrainians had, despite Ukraine fighting a war in the east of Ukraine against Russian backed separatists and despite the fact that Crimea was taken from them by Russia.

Needless to say, since the brutal attack on all of Ukraine by Russia on February 24th, 2022, this ongoing war has clearly sewn animosity between many Ukrainians and Russians. However, the animosity seems to be mainly directed at the Russians who support Putin's regime. Many Russians who have lived in Ukraine for decades, support Ukraine in their fight against the aggressor in the East. If there is any ill feeling by Ukrainians towards Russians today, it is because of what Putin and those in the Kremlin started on the 24th of February 2022.

I think the biggest take away is that there are a lot of complexities in this,  that when solely observed from one perspective over the other it may lead to a narrowed viewpoint which is what the people (politicians, backers, corporates, globalists) want in this,  it is easy to whip up vociferous backing to a war machine that only serves one group of people.  

I don't think there is a single person that can deny that Russia's actions are culpable,  but similarly honest people will also consider the culpability in other players in this conflict.  In the end the only thing we can uniformly all agree on is that war is not a solution to a problem and if we let our leaders take us down the current path eg: England giving cruise missiles and excluding all liability for how it is used or the US considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons and conscription,  these are not the solutions. 

I am pretty happy with my country's stance as posed in the BRICS meeting and we are in support of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.    For me my solution would include removal of Zelensky and Putin from power and new democratic elections be carried out. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

what agitated that? oh wait.

Russia is guilty and will have to pay the bill at some point, but to act like NATO didn't want this for their own benefit is naive.

for the very lefties that talk about territorial ancestry Ukraine never existed it was the USSR, by default Crimea, these were taken from Russia like Taiwan from China by powers with no moral authority, the situation was fine for many decades until along came the spider in the story.   

we need the elections to happen soon before Biden leads us into a nuclear apocalypse.

The only likely terms would be Russia keeps the annexed Donbass and Crimea, Ukraine doesn't join NATO but rather BRICS, ethnic Russians in Ukraine are not treated like second class citizens and Russia to pay and help clean the battlefields of all mines and unexploded ordinances.

BRICS is an economic union, NATO’s a military alliance. NATO exists to stop Russian expansion. Expansion like what Russia’s trying in Ukraine after a Russian puppet was forced out of government and Putin couldn’t stand to see Ukraine see a brighter economic future with less reliance on Russia?

For all this talk of NATO escalating… it’s really been Russia that’s escalated countries wanting to join NATO with this invasion.

Are you saying no former USSR states deserve sovereignty because they were part of the expansionist Soviet Union & before that:.. colonised by Imperial Russia?

Quite frankly that’s an insane view and people living in a place can the right to sovereignty and self-determination. 

[Spike]

Ukraine did exist you muppet. The USSR was a literal ‘Union of Soviet Socialist Republics’. It’s like saying Scotland doesn’t exist because it’s in the United Kingdom. There has been a people and a culture that has developed over a thousand years. Sure its similar to others but the USSR doesn’t erase that.
 

How many Russians and Ukrainians actually want to be at war right now? I doubt very many, where is the self-determination of the people when they get dragged into a geopolitical conflict ? People are dead because of the most pointless bullshit. It’s incredibly depressing because as @nudgetold me, when people are actually allowed to have their own choices they can flourish and make huge strides much like her home nation and the other Baltic states. There will be international meddling sure but the direction of what they want is largely in their own control. Ukraine and Russia never had a chance torn up on the inside and on the outside.

[Azeem]

It's not just left I'm seeing a lot of American right wingers also supporting Russia because they see Russia as the last standing traditional 'homogeneous' white nation. 

[Spike]

10 hours ago, Beelzebub said:

It's not just left I'm seeing a lot of American right wingers also supporting Russia because they see Russia as the last standing traditional 'homogeneous' white nation. 

I only see universal Ukraine support. Yellow and blue everywhere, cars, t-shirts, hats, badges, pins, and so on. I don’t know where you are seeing it mate but in my day to day, Ukraine gets its arse kissed, and people talk about Russia like the evil empire ‘how could they just invade’ - well mate, you’re American how are you not familiar with this? 

[Azeem]

28 minutes ago, Spike said:

I only see universal Ukraine support. Yellow and blue everywhere, cars, t-shirts, hats, badges, pins, and so on. I don’t know where you are seeing it mate but in my day to day, Ukraine gets its arse kissed, and people talk about Russia like the evil empire ‘how could they just invade’ - well mate, you’re American how are you not familiar with this? 

Obviously the public space is occupied by pro-Ukraine but they are a vocal minority. 

 

[Spike]

9 minutes ago, Beelzebub said:

Obviously the public space is occupied by pro-Ukraine but they are a vocal minority. 

 

I don’t know about that, mate. The Americans in general have had a very negative view of Russia for a long time. Anti-USSR red scare, ‘election fraud’, Putin, the war in Ukraine, the cultural mindset towards Russia has always been a bit xenophobic and negative and I haven’t seen that change outwardly or inwardly.

[Azeem]

2 minutes ago, Spike said:

I don’t know about that, mate. The Americans in general have had a very negative view of Russia for a long time. Anti-USSR red scare, ‘election fraud’, Putin, the war in Ukraine, the cultural mindset towards Russia has always been a bit xenophobic and negative and I haven’t seen that change outwardly or inwardly.

I would say the xenophobia is not just America but Europe as well. I can understand it for countries that historically faced Russian revanchism but some of the racist caricatures of Russians in aftermath of this war 'orcs' and @nudge telling her own experience of her friends being racist towards Russians at least hints me that there is some 'Russophobia' which is a hindrance in Europe-Russia integration. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Lukashenko ‘struggling to keep Wagner troops from attacking Poland’

what are these morons up to now?

[OrangeKhrush]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Lukashenko ‘struggling to keep Wagner troops from attacking Poland’

what are these morons up to now?

they appear to be a rogue militia which was sponsored old soviet era equipment,  now they are going around trying to fight with anyone. 

[Azeem]

3 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Lukashenko ‘struggling to keep Wagner troops from attacking Poland’

what are these morons up to now?

Plausible deniability. 

[Azeem]

Ok I'll be honest. I'm starting to have a crush on Maria Zakharova

[Dr. Gonzo]

51 minutes ago, Beelzebub said:

Plausible deniability. 

What's plausible about it? No way someone can cross Putin like that and escape with his life without cutting some sort of deal, I don't for a second believe that Putin would allow this group of mercenaries that by all accounts is a far more effective fighting force than the actual Russian military fuck off to Belarus if they didn't have some kind of weird plan. Then there's Putin making his own comments about Poland and their involvement in Ukraine. It just seems we're at the next step of Russia escalating things because they've backed themselves into a corner but can't afford to make themselves appear weaker than they already have.

But the last time Wagner forces encountered NATO forces in Syria, it was an absolute slaughter for the Wagner soldiers. Do they really want to take on Poland, who can probably wipe the floor with them without having the remaining NATO allies? Is Russia trying to take the world to the brink of WW3 and then back down from it and claim they saved humanity from nuclear Armageddon? Is Putin trying to retire but he knows dictators can't really retire, so he's trying to end up with his own St. Helena Napoleon scenario where he can live in exile without worry of the next Russian autocrat coming after his wealth?

25 minutes ago, Beelzebub said:

Ok I'll be honest. I'm starting to have a crush on Maria Zakharova

I'm not one to kink shame, but she looks like Hilary Clinton with botched plastic surgery.