F1 2023 Predictions League

[Stan]

6 hours ago, Tommy said:

Stan on pole?

Plan Z. 

[RandoEFC+]

Just noting this down now so I don't forget and have to work it out again. Bonus Question goes to Whiskey with Magnussen finishing 6 places ahead of his championship position.

Ocon would have been the best pick, starting the race 12th in the standings and finishing 4th!

[MUFC]

@RandoEFC

The question about the number of drivers who will win a race this season (page 1). Does this include sprint races?

[RandoEFC+]

4 hours ago, MUFC said:

@RandoEFC

The question about the number of drivers who will win a race this season (page 1). Does this include sprint races?

No just Grands Prix

[RandoEFC+]

Results - Las Vegas Grand Prix

It's quite a doozy this week with a range of scores and a last lap overtake that could significantly affect the final standings.

First, qualifying, and we finally saw a gamble rewarded as Aston Martin duo @Tommy and @MUFC successfully backed Charles Leclerc for pole position. @Whiskey also veered from the pack with contrasting success as Oscar Piastri, instead of scoring pole position, was knocked out in Q1. Everyone else went with Verstappen and this prediction may open up heading into the final weekend as Ferrari have now actually had more pole positions than Red Bull since the summer break.

Onto the race, and normal service was resumed as Verstappen recovered from a 5 second penalty and contact with George Russell to eventually win the race, delivering 5 points for everyone but @Whiskey, whose race day gambles didn't go any better. A host of people were left disappointed with Hamilton and Norris getting nowhere near the podium, leaving the Perez/Leclerc backers to hoover up the spoils. @Stan bagged 10 points for the podium with the two Red Bulls in the correct position but separated by the wrong car. @OrangeKhrush and @The Palace Fan picked up a couple of points each for having one of Perez and Leclerc but in the wrong spot. @Coma, @DeadLinesman and @nudge all had to settle for 5 points this week having got nowhere near.

The last lap needs its own paragraph really because at the end of lap 49, @RandoEFC and @Tommy were both on track for 20 points for a perfect podium plus another 5 points for Perez finishing 2nd as the random driver. @MUFC would have scored 14 points for this result including his 5 for pole position. Charles Leclerc's overtake on the final lap completely swapped this around, scored @MUFC the full 20 points for a perfect podium and also meant he was the only person to call the random driver's position correctly, with @Stan predicting Perez to finish 3rd on the podium but hedging his bets with a 4th place for this response. So this final lap move cost @RandoEFC and @Tommy a total of 16 points and improved @MUFC's result by the same amount. 

Finally, the bonus question this week asked which driver would finish the most positions ahead of their pre-race position in the championship. Esteban Ocon was the best pick, his 4th place beating his championship placing by 8. Nobody picked him but @OrangeKhrush was certainly unlucky, having picked Alpine team-mate Gasly who ran 4th in the opening phase of the race. The next best picks were Leclerc, Sargeant and Magnussen who all finished 5-6 positions higher than their championship placing, so the 5 points go to @Whiskey who picked the Dane. Ricciardo was an understandably popular pick due to Alpha Tauri's recent form and his lowly championship position but Alpha Tauri flopped badly this weekend.

Here's what all of that does for the standings.

There's some outrageous movement this week, with @MUFC headlining it. Having not really featured near the top of the standings all season, he jumps from 6th to 2nd after trouncing the field in Las Vegas and now sits just 11 points behind leader @RandoEFC.

In the Constructors' Standings, with Aston Martin pairing @MUFC and @Tommy the top two scorers this week and very few others even getting off the ground, the team incredibly jumps from last to first in just one weekend, underlining just how close the Constructors' championship has been all season.

HOWEVER - there's more to come as I'm about to go away and calculate the provisional Season Predictions results BEFORE the final race...

[Tommy]

@MUFC  

 

[RandoEFC+]

*PROVISIONAL* Results - Season Predictions

So last year it felt a bit flat when we finished the last race and then the season predictions were input and it completely changed the standings, so this year, I'm trying something different and scoring up the season predictions before the final race to give a more accurate indication of where everyone stands. Most of these will be final results but some could still change after Abu Dhabi so bear that in mind!

World Champions

The lesson here is *don't trust Ferrari*! With Max Verstappen and Red Bull confirmed as double champions long ago, everyone picks up 40 points with the exception of @Tommy and @Whiskey (20 points for each champion correct). Leclerc couldn't even rescue @Whiskey 10 consolation points for coming in the top three fo the Drivers' standings which is mathematically out of reach for him now, but Ferrari have at least done both of them the courtesy of securing at least 3rd place.

Winners, Podium Sitters and Retirements

With three different race winners all season, it's now mathematically impossible for anyone to get this prediction spot on. The pessimists @RandoEFC, @MUFC, @nudge and @The Palace Fan will bag 5 consolation points each for getting closest, regardless of whether or not we get a 4th different winner in the last round.

Six different teams have scored a podium finish this season, which was correctly called by @Tommy and @nudge. Both will want to avoid a Haas, Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo or Williams podium at the last race, though, as this would see them both lose these 10 points and @DeadLinesman pick up the spoils instead.

The 'most retirements' one is settled as Esteban Ocon has six DNFs this season and nobody else has more than four. Well done to @nudge and @DeadLinesman for this one, another 10 points and a good differential.

Championship Battles

This one is the most complicated one as, mathematically, it could change a lot, but realistically, it probably won't. Remember that it's whoever gets the most battles correct gets 10 points. First, the ones that are mathematically settled: Perez can't catch Verstappen, Russell can't catch Hamilton, Piastri can't catch Norris and Stroll can't catch Alonso. At Ferrari, Leclerc is only 12 points behind Sainz but this one doesn't matter anyway as everyone picked Leclerc and so cancels each other out.

Next are the hilariously unlikely ones. Logan Sargeant will overtake Albon if he wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix AND sets the fastest lap, and Albon scores no points. This is still more likely than De Vries overtaking Tsunoda as he doesn't have a seat for this weekend. 

Now a couple of plausible but very unlikely ones. Zhou trails Bottas by 4 points at Alfa Romeo. 8th place for Zhou in Abu Dhabi would see them tie on points but Bottas would still be ahead on count-back so Zhou needs a top 7 finish to turn this one for @nudge. Magnussen needs the same to overtake Hulkenberg in the Haas battle. I'm pretty much writing these two possibilities off.

The one that remains interesting is Alpine. Las Vegas could have gone very differently for each driver but Ocon's 4th place leaves him 4 points behind his team-mate who didn't score points. As Ocon has a 3rd and a 4th, he would beat Gasly in the standings if he can draw level on points. 8th or better for him with Gasly not scoring is certainly a possibility.

But for now, @Stan and @DeadLinesman are sitting on 9/10 correct calls here and are set for 10 points as a result. If Ocon does manage to nip past Gasly then @Tommy will go on to 9/10 instead and steal these points away. If Zhou or Magnussen manage to reverse their rivalries then I'll have to go back and figure it out again, but like I say, very unlikely.

So here's your second table update of the day:

A solid performance in this set of predictions from @RandoEFC sees him keep his nose in front. @Stan closes the gap to single figures, though, with @MUFC keeping pace. @nudge is (currently) the highest scorer from pre-season, and launches herself to the periphery of the title fight ahead of @OrangeKhrush and @Coma, who see their chances of the Drivers' Championship dwindle. @The Palace Fan, @Tommy and @DeadLinesman end up separated by just 2 points while @Whiskey has been absolutely murdered by his pre-season predictions and will need a near-perfect final weekend just to get back off the bottom of the table.

Aston Martin's foray to the top of the Constructors' table didn't last long, with @nudge and @Stan both in the top three scorers based on this set of predictions, combining to give Ferrari a healthy lead as the season draws to a close. @DeadLinesman's 60 points is his best contribution to the league all season and leaves Red Bull as the closest challengers, while Mercedes drop to last place.

[MUFC]

17 minutes ago, Tommy said:

@MUFC  

 

Bottom to top in one week

[MUFC]

@Tommy

That didn't last

[Stan]

I like the look of that provisional Constructors table @nudge

[Whiskey]

Next season there should be a Verstappen rule IMO. There is no incentive to not go VER pole/win each week - perhaps only allowed 10 VER poles for example? 

[Tommy]

2 hours ago, MUFC said:

@Tommy

That didn't last

[MUFC]

1 hour ago, Tommy said:

If it wasn't for the pre-season predictions I'd have fancied us to nick it.

Oh Ferrari.

[MUFC]

2 hours ago, Whiskey said:

Next season there should be a Verstappen rule IMO. There is no incentive to not go VER pole/win each week - perhaps only allowed 10 VER poles for example? 

Funny you bringing this up. Earlier in the season I was going to suggest ditching the pole position question. I was also going to suggest that for the podium just guess second and third. 

[MUFC]

1 minute ago, MUFC said:

If it wasn't for the pre-season predictions I'd have fancied us to nick it.

Oh Ferrari.

Screen shot the post Vegas results where we are first and keep it

[Tommy]

7 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Results - Las Vegas Grand Prix

It's quite a doozy this week with a range of scores and a last lap overtake that could significantly affect the final standings.

First, qualifying, and we finally saw a gamble rewarded as Aston Martin duo @Tommy and @MUFC successfully backed Charles Leclerc for pole position. @Whiskey also veered from the pack with contrasting success as Oscar Piastri, instead of scoring pole position, was knocked out in Q1. Everyone else went with Verstappen and this prediction may open up heading into the final weekend as Ferrari have now actually had more pole positions than Red Bull since the summer break.

Onto the race, and normal service was resumed as Verstappen recovered from a 5 second penalty and contact with George Russell to eventually win the race, delivering 5 points for everyone but @Whiskey, whose race day gambles didn't go any better. A host of people were left disappointed with Hamilton and Norris getting nowhere near the podium, leaving the Perez/Leclerc backers to hoover up the spoils. @Stan bagged 10 points for the podium with the two Red Bulls in the correct position but separated by the wrong car. @OrangeKhrush and @The Palace Fan picked up a couple of points each for having one of Perez and Leclerc but in the wrong spot. @Coma, @DeadLinesman and @nudge all had to settle for 5 points this week having got nowhere near.

The last lap needs its own paragraph really because at the end of lap 49, @RandoEFC and @Tommy were both on track for 20 points for a perfect podium plus another 5 points for Perez finishing 2nd as the random driver. @MUFC would have scored 14 points for this result including his 5 for pole position. Charles Leclerc's overtake on the final lap completely swapped this around, scored @MUFC the full 20 points for a perfect podium and also meant he was the only person to call the random driver's position correctly, with @Stan predicting Perez to finish 3rd on the podium but hedging his bets with a 4th place for this response. So this final lap move cost @RandoEFC and @Tommy a total of 16 points and improved @MUFC's result by the same amount. 

Finally, the bonus question this week asked which driver would finish the most positions ahead of their pre-race position in the championship. Esteban Ocon was the best pick, his 4th place beating his championship placing by 8. Nobody picked him but @OrangeKhrush was certainly unlucky, having picked Alpine team-mate Gasly who ran 4th in the opening phase of the race. The next best picks were Leclerc, Sargeant and Magnussen who all finished 5-6 positions higher than their championship placing, so the 5 points go to @Whiskey who picked the Dane. Ricciardo was an understandably popular pick due to Alpha Tauri's recent form and his lowly championship position but Alpha Tauri flopped badly this weekend.

Here's what all of that does for the standings.

There's some outrageous movement this week, with @MUFC headlining it. Having not really featured near the top of the standings all season, he jumps from 6th to 2nd after trouncing the field in Las Vegas and now sits just 11 points behind leader @RandoEFC.

In the Constructors' Standings, with Aston Martin pairing @MUFC and @Tommy the top two scorers this week and very few others even getting off the ground, the team incredibly jumps from last to first in just one weekend, underlining just how close the Constructors' championship has been all season.

HOWEVER - there's more to come as I'm about to go away and calculate the provisional Season Predictions results BEFORE the final race...

6 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

*PROVISIONAL* Results - Season Predictions

So last year it felt a bit flat when we finished the last race and then the season predictions were input and it completely changed the standings, so this year, I'm trying something different and scoring up the season predictions before the final race to give a more accurate indication of where everyone stands. Most of these will be final results but some could still change after Abu Dhabi so bear that in mind!

World Champions

The lesson here is *don't trust Ferrari*! With Max Verstappen and Red Bull confirmed as double champions long ago, everyone picks up 40 points with the exception of @Tommy and @Whiskey (20 points for each champion correct). Leclerc couldn't even rescue @Whiskey 10 consolation points for coming in the top three fo the Drivers' standings which is mathematically out of reach for him now, but Ferrari have at least done both of them the courtesy of securing at least 3rd place.

Winners, Podium Sitters and Retirements

With three different race winners all season, it's now mathematically impossible for anyone to get this prediction spot on. The pessimists @RandoEFC, @MUFC, @nudge and @The Palace Fan will bag 5 consolation points each for getting closest, regardless of whether or not we get a 4th different winner in the last round.

Six different teams have scored a podium finish this season, which was correctly called by @Tommy and @nudge. Both will want to avoid a Haas, Alpha Tauri, Alfa Romeo or Williams podium at the last race, though, as this would see them both lose these 10 points and @DeadLinesman pick up the spoils instead.

The 'most retirements' one is settled as Esteban Ocon has six DNFs this season and nobody else has more than four. Well done to @nudge and @DeadLinesman for this one, another 10 points and a good differential.

Championship Battles

This one is the most complicated one as, mathematically, it could change a lot, but realistically, it probably won't. Remember that it's whoever gets the most battles correct gets 10 points. First, the ones that are mathematically settled: Perez can't catch Verstappen, Russell can't catch Hamilton, Piastri can't catch Norris and Stroll can't catch Alonso. At Ferrari, Leclerc is only 12 points behind Sainz but this one doesn't matter anyway as everyone picked Leclerc and so cancels each other out.

Next are the hilariously unlikely ones. Logan Sargeant will overtake Albon if he wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix AND sets the fastest lap, and Albon scores no points. This is still more likely than De Vries overtaking Tsunoda as he doesn't have a seat for this weekend. 

Now a couple of plausible but very unlikely ones. Zhou trails Bottas by 4 points at Alfa Romeo. 8th place for Zhou in Abu Dhabi would see them tie on points but Bottas would still be ahead on count-back so Zhou needs a top 7 finish to turn this one for @nudge. Magnussen needs the same to overtake Hulkenberg in the Haas battle. I'm pretty much writing these two possibilities off.

The one that remains interesting is Alpine. Las Vegas could have gone very differently for each driver but Ocon's 4th place leaves him 4 points behind his team-mate who didn't score points. As Ocon has a 3rd and a 4th, he would beat Gasly in the standings if he can draw level on points. 8th or better for him with Gasly not scoring is certainly a possibility.

But for now, @Stan and @DeadLinesman are sitting on 9/10 correct calls here and are set for 10 points as a result. If Ocon does manage to nip past Gasly then @Tommy will go on to 9/10 instead and steal these points away. If Zhou or Magnussen manage to reverse their rivalries then I'll have to go back and figure it out again, but like I say, very unlikely.

So here's your second table update of the day:

A solid performance in this set of predictions from @RandoEFC sees him keep his nose in front. @Stan closes the gap to single figures, though, with @MUFC keeping pace. @nudge is (currently) the highest scorer from pre-season, and launches herself to the periphery of the title fight ahead of @OrangeKhrush and @Coma, who see their chances of the Drivers' Championship dwindle. @The Palace Fan, @Tommy and @DeadLinesman end up separated by just 2 points while @Whiskey has been absolutely murdered by his pre-season predictions and will need a near-perfect final weekend just to get back off the bottom of the table.

Aston Martin's foray to the top of the Constructors' table didn't last long, with @nudge and @Stan both in the top three scorers based on this set of predictions, combining to give Ferrari a healthy lead as the season draws to a close. @DeadLinesman's 60 points is his best contribution to the league all season and leaves Red Bull as the closest challengers, while Mercedes drop to last place.

[OrangeKhrush]

im just going to call it how it is, that was painful.

[RandoEFC+]

Predictions - Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

We've made it to the season finale! Deadline for predictions is the start of qualifying on Saturday.

@RandoEFC @Stan @MUFC @Tommy @nudge @Whiskey @The Palace Fan @Coma @DeadLinesman @OrangeKhrush

 

Pole Position - Which driver will post the fastest lap in Q3?

[INSERT DRIVER]

 

Podium - Which drivers will finish the Grand Prix in the top three positions?

1. [INSERT DRIVER]

2. [INSERT DRIVER]

3. [INSERT DRIVER]

 

Random Driver - Predict the finishing position of this week's random driver, Daniel Ricciardo.

[INSERT POSITION]

 

Bonus Question - Mercedes go into this weekend on 392 points with Ferrari breathing down their neck on 388. Which team will secure 2nd in the Constructors' standings this weekend?

[INSERT TEAM]

[MUFC]

@Tommy, this is it.

[Tommy]

Just now, MUFC said:

@Tommy, this is it.

[nudge+]

Pole Position - Which driver will post the fastest lap in Q3?

VER

 

Podium - Which drivers will finish the Grand Prix in the top three positions?

1. VER

2. LEC

3. NOR

 

Random Driver - Predict the finishing position of this week's random driver, Daniel Ricciardo.

P13

 

Bonus Question - Mercedes go into this weekend on 392 points with Ferrari breathing down their neck on 388. Which team will secure 2nd in the Constructors' standings this weekend?

Ferrari

[Dave]

Verstappen

 

Verstappen

Norris

Perez

 

14th

 

Mercedes

[OrangeKhrush]

Pole Position - Which driver will post the fastest lap in Q3?

Max VerStanppen

 

Podium - Which drivers will finish the Grand Prix in the top three positions?

1. Verstappen

2. Perez

3. Norris

 

Random Driver - Predict the finishing position of this week's random driver, Daniel Ricciardo.

13th

 

Bonus Question - Mercedes go into this weekend on 392 points with Ferrari breathing down their neck on 388. Which team will secure 2nd in the Constructors' standings this weekend?

Merc

[Stan]

Pole Position - Which driver will post the fastest lap in Q3?

Verstappen

 

Podium - Which drivers will finish the Grand Prix in the top three positions?

1. Verstappen

2. Leclerc

3. Perez

 

Random Driver - Predict the finishing position of this week's random driver, Daniel Ricciardo.

13th

 

Bonus Question - Mercedes go into this weekend on 392 points with Ferrari breathing down their neck on 388. Which team will secure 2nd in the Constructors' standings this weekend?

Ferrari

[RandoEFC+]

Pole Position - Which driver will post the fastest lap in Q3?

Verstappen

 

Podium - Which drivers will finish the Grand Prix in the top three positions?

1. Verstappen

2. Norris

3. Russell

 

Random Driver - Predict the finishing position of this week's random driver, Daniel Ricciardo.

11th

 

Bonus Question - Mercedes go into this weekend on 392 points with Ferrari breathing down their neck on 388. Which team will secure 2nd in the Constructors' standings this weekend?

Mercedes