Dan's Tipping Game

[Dan+]

Sounds like plenty are losing in here this week. Luckily you've got me here to save us at the weekend!

[Dan+]

On 26/09/2023 at 08:43, Stan said:

I'll scour a fair few games and look at their recent fixtures - the goals and corners 'usually' come in fairly easy. Then it's just a case of the bookings - I'll look at how bad their discipline is in general, and especially these days with refs being much more stricter. For Norwich, there was an average 4.75 bookings in their previous 3 games; for Plymouth there was an average of 3.33 bookings in their previous 3. So to me that's a pretty unlucky anomaly for their game together to have only had 1 booking.

I'll usually go for sides that like to attack, too - as that means the goals is more likely to come in, and more attacking opportunities leads to the likelihood of more corners.  

There were 7 corners by half-time in their game, and obviously goals came in with ease. Then it was just a case of hoping for Norwich to lose their discipline.

For the Cambridge/Port Vale game, it was literally half-way there by half-time - 1 goal, 5 corners and 2 bookings. 

I was very tempted to go for Over 2.5 goals/over 9.5 corners/over 35 booking points in the North London Derby - that came in very easily and the odds were about 5/1 I think. 

Yeah I get the thinking, I see plenty doing this with bet builders where they'll throw in something like over 0.5 goals just to slightly boost the odds. It's all along the right sort of lines though particularly at some of the prices you're getting on these. It's the winning method within this so far anyway.

[Dan+]

Attempt number 9 at landing a winner.

Pretty self explanatory but I fully expect both of these two to win, and under 5 goals seems a decent way to boost the price as neither of them do tend to rack up that many big wins away from home. This selection has paid out for all 6/6 away games involving these two teams this season. £10 returns £33.72.

[RandoEFC+]

14 hours ago, Dan said:

Attempt number 9 at landing a winner.

Pretty self explanatory but I fully expect both of these two to win, and under 5 goals seems a decent way to boost the price as neither of them do tend to rack up that many big wins away from home. This selection has paid out for all 6/6 away games involving these two teams this season. £10 returns £33.72.

I'm shocked that Under 5 goals even shifts the odds .

I do find in general that the "Under" markets are often better value than the "Over" ones. You can tell that the bookies set their lines and then the market shifts things in favour of more goals just because it's more fun to bet on Overs than Unders.

[...Dan]

I lose every week anyway, so I might as well be ambitious...

Utrecht to beat Almere and Seuntjens to score anytime (4.20)

NEC to beat Vitesse (2.15)

£10 returns £90.30.

[Stan]

Feel like I am going to jinx Guirassy and/or Stuttgart doing this

The Basque Derby and la Liga games in general usually have lots of bookings... 

[Dan+]

10 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I'm shocked that Under 5 goals even shifts the odds .

I do find in general that the "Under" markets are often better value than the "Over" ones. You can tell that the bookies set their lines and then the market shifts things in favour of more goals just because it's more fun to bet on Overs than Unders.

I'm surprised by how much it actually does shift the odds although while I haven't done it loads of times, I have been stung before too. I remember having Benfica to beat Brugge last year with under 4.5 goals and I think they beat them 5-1.

But when you look at the ones I've picked there. Man City's away results so far are 1-3 at West Ham, 1-2 at Sheff Utd, 0-3 at Burnley. They're missing possibly their most important player after Haaland in Rodri which should in theory weaken them a touch and thus, hopefully, lower the chance they absolutely rag Wolves. Wolves don't score too many. Adding in under 4.5 goals takes it from 1.33 to 1.72. It's absolutely infuriating if they do and win 1-4 or 0-5 but is it seriously that likely? I think it definitely throws some value into things.

Arsenal as well are taken from 1.57 to 1.95 by adding in under 4.5 goals. Their away record is 0-1 win, 0-1 win, and then in the cup, another 0-1 win - and something I noticed quite a lot with them last season is they'd win 0-1 or 0-2 away but generally save the chaotic games for when they're at home. Their wins have been against teams of a similar nature to Bournemouth too.

Unders markets are overpriced simply because they're less enjoyable to track. It's quite satisfying with things like both teams to score, over 2.5, even just win markets on 365 (given the 2 goal payout) that you can be 'safe' early but with an unders bet it goes to the death. I think people simply avoid it for that reason. It's totally understandable but I think mine, particularly under 4.5 goals, boosts the value way beyond what it truly is given the odds on them to win. It's a method I see a pro gambler using quite a bit. He's quite a fan of win and over 1.5 goals as well which is just basically any win bar 1-0. That does a decent boost too.

I landed a nice one tonight where I had a red card to be shown in Benfica v Porto at 2.50 - came in after 19 minutes

[Dan+]

8 hours ago, Stan said:

Feel like I am going to jinx Guirassy and/or Stuttgart doing this

The Basque Derby and la Liga games in general usually have lots of bookings... 

The cards line is hilarious in Spain and Portugal. I think the cards line for Benfica v Porto was between 100 and 110 booking points which is absolutely laughable. Their game tonight produced 120 booking points (if a straight red is 30?).

[RandoEFC+]

4 hours ago, Dan said:

Arsenal as well are taken from 1.57 to 1.95 by adding in under 4.5 goals

I think that is simply insane value.

[RandoEFC+]

Here's mine for the week anyway. 

[Stan]

6 hours ago, Dan said:

The cards line is hilarious in Spain and Portugal. I think the cards line for Benfica v Porto was between 100 and 110 booking points which is absolutely laughable. Their game tonight produced 120 booking points (if a straight red is 30?).

25 straight red 

10 for yellow 

35 for 2 yellows

[Stan]

Yep, of all games for Guirassy to not score in... 

[...Dan]

On 29/09/2023 at 16:49, ...Dan said:

I lose every week anyway, so I might as well be ambitious...

Utrecht to beat Almere and Seuntjens to score anytime (4.20)

NEC to beat Vitesse (2.15)

£10 returns £90.30.

Seuntjens misses 2 big chances, Utrecht go down to ten men and Almere get their first win of the season

I'm really starting to think I'm actually cursing teams with my posts in this thread. I might have to start tipping Man City wins.

[RandoEFC+]

PSG couldn't even nick a win with 21 shots and 2.5 xG the cunts. Ah well.

[Lucas]

I forgot to bet this week so ill do one for tomorrow.

Fiorentina to beat Cagliari 1/2

Fulham Chelsea, BTTS 4/5

£10 wins £27.

[Dan+]

Absolutely horrid weekend this. 

[Dan+]

On 26/09/2023 at 05:01, Dan said:

WEEK 8 - UPTURN AND THE BIGGEST WIN YET

We're back in the green this week but it's mainly thanks to one particular member which shall be covered later. The hint is it isn't me.

We have a new leader this week in the form of @Machado who seems to favour calculated safe picks. Sporting took their time to bag in their trip to Austria but did end up scoring twice in a late turnaround win. Bayern hit twice in the space of four minutes to pay out the original leg of the bet, to take home a £7.64 profit and put himself back in the green.

A congratulations must go to @CaaC (John) for this weeks effort though. He's gone a little more conservative in recent weeks rather than picking audatious upset scorelines and instead just picking an underdog to go with a favourite. I'll mention again that you get one bet a week, one £10 bet and you use it on one or two selections, rather than two £5 bets - luckily there's not yet been any issue as you've either won on both or lost on both, but this week for example your two selections will be put into a £10 double rather than two sets of £5. This may cost you on another week, however this week Everton's win at Brentford contributed to the season's biggest win yet, and the same result was the single biggest odds winner to pay out this season as they turned in a surprise 1-3 victory. Hibs made no mistake in their leg of the bet either, beating St Johnstone 2-0 at home. Should you have done two £5 bets on these outcomes, you would be £19.40 up rather than the £57.12 you are!

@Stan had built up a bit of profit meaning that he stays in the green despite falling to a second straight loss this weekend. Interested to hear the rationale behind the games you're going for on these - are they just random or is there a reason those particular fixtures were singled out? I do find it quite peculiar that a game that ended 6-2 didn't pay out here as that just hints chaos to me, but we only had the one card in this game, which surprises me.

@Storts hasn't predicted for a while but retains a top half spot. @Pyfish is let down by Anthony Gordon failing to get a card at the San Siro, although Luton did score a goal for a selection winner, albeit in quite dubious circumstances.

@Lucas can consider himself unlucky to lose this week. Tonali picking up an impressive 4 fouls on his return home, Guimaraes 1 but Theo Hernandez failing to commit any - probably helped by how dominant Milan were during most of the game.

@RandoEFC's peculiar asian handicap bet has resulted in the first breakeven of the season as both teams ended up with single goal victories - with Real Madrid's coming in injury time and Bayern - Man Utd's back and forth resulting in a 4-3, so it can't be classed as a winner, but a good example of the value of asian handicaps I suppose and how it's a good way to hedge a bet - I say as somebody who was done by Barcelona at the weekend failing to win their game by over a goal.

@...Dan's trip to France doesn't pay off as Pau ended up losing 0-3 to Annecy, although St Etienne did win their game so he gets that selection right at least.

And then we move to me. Eight bets. Eight losses. This one is probably the worst yet. Absolute abject toss in every way imaginable. Two comfortable favourites both fail to land either leg of the bet, both suffering shock defeats. Aston Villa's performance was abysmal, I didn't think they would fall into the same pitfall that we did two years ago yet here we are. Brighton really surprised me though, I thought they would take AEK to pieces and they've not only failed to hit 3 goals, but they've lost the game and are in a pretty precarious position in the group now. I don't think many would believe me if I told them I won around £400 this weekend on separate accumulators, but I'm definitely picking the wrong stuff to throw onto here. I however retain faith that this is going to turn around, but simply funny to lose eight straight. It's really, really bad. Appalling.

Overall, it's actually the second best week yet though.

 

WEEK 8 STATS
Winning bets: 2/8 (25%)
Winning selections: 7/13* (53.8%)
Weekly forum position: +£14.76

*Includes Asian Handicap 'push' x2 - not included as winner or loser

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 12/56 (21.43%)
Winning selections: 44/107 (41.1%)
Total forum position: -£195.82

WEEK 9 - PITIFUL

After a slightly improved period, this weekend has served to wipe out all of the good as all eight players posted a loss for only the second time this season, making it the joint worst week of the season along with week two.

It started early on with league leading @Machado losing on Bracknell's failure to score twice in their home game with Beaconsfield - falling to a surprise 0-3 defeat in what also takes the unwanted crown of being the shortest odds loser of the season, beating the current leader of @RandoEFC picking Chelsea to score twice at home to Forest. Hartlepool v Solihull ended 0-2, so a payout there.

@CaaC (John) couldn't back up his big win. Atletico going 0-2 down but eventually beating Cadiz, however Atalanta could only muster a goalless draw with Juventus, so no winner this time.

Thought I'd introduce a movement tab to show who has done what in the table relating to last week as I found it funny that the only riser in the table was the only one who didn't play. @Stan falls to a third straight loss with probably his poorest of the season yet. A surprisingly tame Basque derby produced only 40 booking points. Always think that a comprehensive victory for one team is a death knell for booking points. Guirassy's form dried up this week, Stuttgart taking a 0-2 victory at Koln but Brighton loanee Deniz Undav got both goals.

@Pyfish came fairly close, impressively landing the Tonali booking, but Alvarez didn't score on the night as Man City exited the EFL Cup with a 1-0 loss at Newcastle.

@Lucas came the closest to a winner this week, Fiorentina swatting aside Cagliari 3-0 but Fulham couldn't score past Chelsea, which cost the bet.

@RandoEFC loses on the asian handicaps this week as PSG somehow manage to draw with bottom of the table Clermont. A game that cost me a bet as well, infuriatingly. Newcastle made no mistake and they seem to have gotten their early season issues put well to the side now.

@...Dan still can't catch a break, his Dutch double pretty disastrous as both of his picks were beaten pretty comfortably at home and is still yet to taste victory.

Once again, I have to finish talking about myself. 9 defeats from 9 and it really does just feel like a curse at this point when I can somehow produce a loser with those selections. The Arsenal selection wasn't miles off losing but I maintain that was great value. Man City however, just what the hell can you even say at this point?

A dreadful week unfortunately.

WEEK 9 STATS
Winning bets: 0/8 (0%)
Winning selections: 5/15 (33.3%)
Weekly forum position: -£80.00

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 12/64 (18.75%)
Winning selections: 49/122 (40.16%)
Total forum position: -£275.82

 

[CaaC (John)+]

Europa League 5th October

Group E
Liverpool v Union Saint-Gilloise

Group F
Roma v Servette

£10 double on a home win (Bald)

[Machado]

Egypt - Smouha or draw

Conference - Fener win

[Machado]

Back to winning ways.

[Dan+]

Here he goes again, attempt number 10.

After dabbling all week with having Huddersfield to win at Sheffield Wednesday, the sacking of Xisco Munoz and the shortening of Huddersfield's price has put me off, so I have opted for this.

Lens I've talked up in here before. They were extraordinarily unlucky to lose the last time they were backed in here and the underlying data tells you they're hitting similar levels in performance this time around, albeit without quite having the results to back it up yet - though I think you can probably forgive them as they've had pretty tough fixtures in trips to PSG and Monaco, unluckily drew at home to Rennes, lost at Brest (although Brest have started very well themselves) and then had that Metz debacle. Since the Metz loss, they have drawn away at Sevilla, beaten Toulouse, Strasbourg and then in the week turned over Arsenal at home. They are a good team and they are picking up again. Lille is their derby fixture which I think can throw a lot of form out of the equation, but I just think better than evens on Lens here is worth taking - particularly with Lille coming back off a midweek trip to Klaksvik (which they didn't win) and have demonstrated very mixed form themselves.

For my other I'm taking the under 5 goals and win pick again. Derby are 1/2 (1.50) to win the game and throwing under 5 goals into the equation delivers a nice little boost to the price against a team who are remarkably yet to score a single goal in their 11 league games so far. I think another funny element with Cheltenham is the fact they didn't score in the League Cup, and in the EFL Trophy they lost 4-1 to Bristol Rovers, with their goal coming from an own goal, so no Cheltenham player has actually netted yet. There is a gulf in quality in this game and although Derby are prone to a dodgy result, they ought to be winning this one and I think given Cheltenham are so barren in front of goal, it's worth taking the unders in this here. Under 4.5 goals has paid out in 20 of the combined 21 games these two have played this season.

[Pyfish+]

Scunthorpe to win - 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals in Match - Luton v Tottenham - 1.53
Total - 3.14
Pays: £31.43

[...Dan]

Roda (1.57) v Jong AZ

Jong Ajax v VVV Venlo (2.30)

£10 returns £36.14

[Stan]

Southampton average 12 corners per game in their last 5 games, and I'm not convinced their defence is sorted despite clean sheet vs Stoke, however they haven't lost their scoring touch, averaging 2 goals per game in their last 5 home games. Rotherham's away form is horrid, too. 

Southampton also have the worst discipline in the division (31Y and 1R).

Crawley and Wrexham should be good regardless; Crawley scored 20 in their 11 league games, and 14 of those in their last 5 home games. 42 corners in their last 5 (Avg 8+), while Wrexham average just under 10 per game. And Wrexham are 4th highest goalscorers in the league, even though last game was a 0-0 draw. 

[RandoEFC+]

Going a bit punchier this weekend.