Dan's Tipping Game

[Stan]

Fail.

[RandoEFC+]

On 16/11/2023 at 21:40, RandoEFC said:

This week's offering.

Castellon vs Atletico Baleares takes us to the Spanish third tier. Castellon top the table with 10 wins from 12 this season. Their last eight victories in a row have been by 2+ goals. At home especially they have a 100% record with all but the first of their 6 wins being by 2+ goals. Baleares sit second from bottom with 1 point and 0 goals from their six away games, with four of their five defeats being by 2+ goals.

The second pick is slightly riskier. Dumbarton are 3rd in League Two and host second from bottom Elgin. Dumbarton have a decent home record but it's more about Elgin's away form. Five defeats in a row, three of them by 2+ goals including a 6-0 and a 5-1. If you look further back and include last season, Elgin actually have 11 defeats in their last 12 away games, 8 of which have been by 2+ goals.

Should be a good double at 2.25.

Dumbarton didn't really turn up and needed a penalty to secure a 1-0 win unfortunately. Now looking at a £10 > £13.25 week at best.

[Dan+]

Another absolutely corking double from me.

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

Another absolutely corking double from me.

The Salford one cropped up for me when I was looking through the fixtures, I had them on a double chance. It was a close game and Gillingham's first half goals looked like they were against the run of play. Salford were probably overpriced there but you can't win them all.

Shameless off-topic brag coming here but I put together a silly 80/1 accumulator for today based entirely on my own research into mainly the English and German schedules this weekend. It actually came off at reduced odds of 48/1 because one game was postponed.

I've been trying to put my maths to good use to calculate some probabilities and take my own biases out of my betting. It's a bit nerdy but I do believe I can be profitable but until I find a good formula/strategy I'm playing with tiny stakes to experiment so sadly the winner above isn't paying for a month's rent or anything . 

[RandoEFC+]

On 16/11/2023 at 21:40, RandoEFC said:

This week's offering.

Castellon vs Atletico Baleares takes us to the Spanish third tier. Castellon top the table with 10 wins from 12 this season. Their last eight victories in a row have been by 2+ goals. At home especially they have a 100% record with all but the first of their 6 wins being by 2+ goals. Baleares sit second from bottom with 1 point and 0 goals from their six away games, with four of their five defeats being by 2+ goals.

The second pick is slightly riskier. Dumbarton are 3rd in League Two and host second from bottom Elgin. Dumbarton have a decent home record but it's more about Elgin's away form. Five defeats in a row, three of them by 2+ goals including a 6-0 and a 5-1. If you look further back and include last season, Elgin actually have 11 defeats in their last 12 away games, 8 of which have been by 2+ goals.

Should be a good double at 2.25.

Castellon scored a 95th minute goal to go 4-2 up and take me from a full refund to a £3.25 profit. Glorious .

[CaaC (John)+]

I think I shit out with my 2 picks for week 16 so I move onto week 17...

English Championship/ Saturday 25th November

£10 on both Ipswich Town & Leicester winning

[Storts]

[RandoEFC+]

[Dan+]

Don't forget to get yours in for the week if you're playing @Lucas @Pyfish @...Dan @Machado @Stan

. Assume the table update is usually a reminder but as stated, not had the facility to do it this week. Should have last weeks up on Sunday.

Mine this week. No big description, but simply two teams I think will win with a slight tarting up of the odds via likely goal outcomes

 

[Machado]

Villarreal or draw

Under 3.5 match goals

[Stan]

 

Top one has the top of the table at home, and with the best home record. They average 3 goals a game at home (27 in 9).

Bottom one is worst home vs best away team in League One. Cheltenham conceded over 1.5 goals at home (13 in 8), while Oxford have scored 16 in 8 and have 18 points so far away from home. 

[Pyfish+]

Leeds 1.31
PSG 1.44

Both to win @1.89 = £18.95 return

[RandoEFC+]

On 22/11/2023 at 21:54, RandoEFC said:

The research for this:

Zilina have won their last 3 games against Kosice by more than a goal. They've also won 6 of their 7 home games this season, 4 of those by more than 1 goal. Kosice have lost 9 on the bounce, 7 of which were by more than a goal.

Slovan Bratislave have won 6 in a row vs Zemplin with 4 of those being by 2+ goals. They're on a 9 game winning streak in the league with 6 of those wins being by more than a goal. Zemplin have 5 points from 14 games and a goal difference of -20.

[...Dan]

Racing Santander (1.72) v Villarreal B

Heerenveen (2.05) v Fortuna Sittard

£10 returns £35.41

[RandoEFC+]

On 22/11/2023 at 21:54, RandoEFC said:

Should have had a full winner here. Zilina played 45 minutes against ten men but only won 1-0. Slovan Bratislava won 2-0 so it's £10 > £16.25.

[...Dan]

On 24/11/2023 at 17:17, ...Dan said:

Racing Santander (1.72) v Villarreal B

Heerenveen (2.05) v Fortuna Sittard

£10 returns £35.41

Finally.

[CaaC (John)+]

On 20/11/2023 at 10:17, CaaC (John) said:

£10 on both Ipswich Town & Leicester winning

Shit out there, bloody Ipswich let me down, I shall move on...

Premier League 2nd Dec

Nottingham Forest v Everton a win for Everton
Newcastle v Man United a score draw

[Dan+]

On 23/11/2023 at 18:35, Dan said:

Don't forget to get yours in for the week if you're playing @Lucas @Pyfish @...Dan @Machado @Stan

. Assume the table update is usually a reminder but as stated, not had the facility to do it this week. Should have last weeks up on Sunday.

Mine this week. No big description, but simply two teams I think will win with a slight tarting up of the odds via likely goal outcomes

 

That's one of those losses that I can probably accept given who it's cost but it's the usual crap luck on this all the same.

[Machado]

On 24/11/2023 at 07:25, Machado said:

Villarreal or draw

Under 3.5 match goals

Finally back to winning.

New manager bounce for Villarreal and thank you Lyon for being so shit at scoring goals.

[Dan+]

Lille were an absolutely class price. They're profiling really well on the numbers and I'm not fooled by Lyon based on one freak game last week. I did have money on Lille. I think if I'd had a proper delve into things rather than picking two sides I liked I'd have gone with that but never mind.

Intending to get two weeks of tables up this afternoon.

[Pyfish+]

My bet was shit. I've lost it haha!

[Dan+]

On 15/11/2023 at 04:08, Dan said:

WEEK 15 - THE WRONG SIDE OF FINE MARGINS

I think a look through week 15 shows us we've encountered probably the collectively unluckiest weekend of the season so far, with every single person landing at least one of their selections, yet only the two claiming wins and of those, two of the smallest of the season (outside of @Machado).

@CaaC (John) is the winner of the week, calling on what is on the face of it a fairly safe double in Man Utd and Ipswich. Two truly predictable scorelines as well in my opinion, said as somebody who had a 1-0 home win on the prediction league, and has quite regularly pushed a theory that Ipswich win every home game 3-2. John doubles his money.

The luckiest player of the week however has to actually be Machado. Not based on the betting point of view by any stretch - he just happened to have exactly the same bet against his team in a derby that I had on the opening day of the season, and it produced an identical outcome. I had Leicester to not beat Coventry and we scored 77th and 87th minute goals to win the game 2-1. Machado backs against his team in the derby with Sporting and Benfica remarkably produce 94th and 97th minute goals to win 2-1. Is it the Gyokeres connection? I wouldn't wish to speak for him, but I'm quite safely going to assume he would take the Benfica euphoric victory over this weeks hypothetical £13.50 win - even though it would've been his biggest of the season.

Which brings me to the average odds column. I've not bothered to go back through this yet, but I will eventually be updating this to see who is shooting for the stars and who is playing safe, although I think we can guess this here!

Back to the bad luck. @Stan made an understandable choice in Bayern to slaughter Heidenheim but they produced a relatively conservative 4-2 win over a side who are averaging over 2 expected goals against per game - which are remarkably bad defensive numbers. Bayer Leverkusen's win was totally obvious, and frankly their odds were mental for me, it's their 10th win of 11 in the league so far, and Union Berlin remarkably have now lost 9 in a row in the league.

@RandoEFC claims the only other winner of the weekend but can probably feel a bit aggrieved that it wasn't a full win, particularly given it has paid out in the last six meetings in Turin. Cagliari's consolation goal means he takes the smallest win of the season.  Arsenal made no mistake beating a hapless Burnley.

@Lucas puts on the opposite of a brave face pretending that Leicester losing has upset him, a result that directly works in Leeds' favour and courtesy of a Leeds player scoring for Middlesbrough. Stockport seemed a completely obvious pick at extremely generous odds, remarkably their 11th league win in a row which is three off the all time record. Leicester failed to bounce back, although we did have the chances at Middlesbrough - it was our first loss against them in 15 games.

The really bad luck though I think is reserved for the bottom two, which is no surprise, we've seen this all play out before. I specifically avoid picking games that concern my own teams fortunes at this point because of how convinced I am of a curse, and after Aston Villa sailed in with a 3-1 win over Fulham, I can now add coaxing this dreadful Lyon team to their first win of a season to my list as they take three points at Rennes, in a performance seemingly totally unconvincing, and one that assures you they would've lost if Rennes hadn't picked up a red card after 'six' minutes. 

It was no better either for @...Dan who turned back to Ligue 2 this weekend, having landed the Paris win, he was robbed in the 94th minute by a Pau equaliser at Angers to draw 4-4. This would've put me back bottom though - so every cloud

A pretty dismal week on the whole, given the number of selected wins it's pretty incredible how little money we took in. But not to worry, we only have a limited selection of lower league games and a sift through which international games have something to play for to know what angle to hit the final international weekend of 2023 with. Speaking of which, there will be no week 16 table this week as I'm going to Cape Verde on Saturday for a week, so I will get it together along with week 17. Best of luck. This is going to be testing.

WEEK 15 STATS
Winning bets: 2/7
Winning selections: 8/14
Weekly forum position: -£37.60 (Ranked 10/15)

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 28/109
Winning selections: 98/206
Total forum position: -£204.75

WEEK 16 - THINK BACK

WEEK 16 STATS
Winning bets: 1/5
Winning selections: 1/10
Weekly forum position: -£36.75 (Ranked 10/16)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 29/114
Winning selections: 99/216
Total forum position: -£241.50

Think back to the international break. Having spent a week in Cape Verde, escaping the reality and having a break from having to face this league table, I think back to a better time, when I sat in the top 8 of this league.

Only five players made selections this week and only the one landed a winner, in what has to be collectively one of the weakest weeks we've had with only one selection actually winning entirely.

The wise ones were those who either didn't play, or played with Asian Handicaps. So just @RandoEFC, who takes home another little profit after Castellon ran out 4-2 winners over Atletico Baleares - a 95th minute goal meaning we didn't have another blank. Dumbarton could only manage a 1-0 win, so it was void.

@CaaC (John) loses on both picks, Wales failing to beat Armenia, but unfortunately takes the wooden spoon award for having Switzerland in their failure to beat Kosovo at home - which is the shortest priced loser of the season at 1/4 (1.25).

The other three players, me, @Stan and @Lucas all overlapped with our fixtures, but nobody managed any success. Stan did pick two winning teams but both could only manage 2-0 victories, not enough to get the over 2.5 goals. Lucas quite funnily took the exact same selection on Stockport but at shorter odds. He also drops it on Chesterfield's loss at Southend - another laughable one I can add to my own list. I need to compile the amount of teams I've killed the form of this season. The Salford pick didn't pay off either.

A week to forget, and thankfully, I think most of us have done.

[Dan+]

Just now, Dan said:

WEEK 16 - THINK BACK

WEEK 16 STATS
Winning bets: 1/5
Winning selections: 1/10
Weekly forum position: -£36.75 (Ranked 10/16)

---

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 29/114
Winning selections: 99/216
Total forum position: -£241.50

Think back to the international break. Having spent a week in Cape Verde, escaping the reality and having a break from having to face this league table, I think back to a better time, when I sat in the top 8 of this league.

Only five players made selections this week and only the one landed a winner, in what has to be collectively one of the weakest weeks we've had with only one selection actually winning entirely.

The wise ones were those who either didn't play, or played with Asian Handicaps. So just @RandoEFC, who takes home another little profit after Castellon ran out 4-2 winners over Atletico Baleares - a 95th minute goal meaning we didn't have another blank. Dumbarton could only manage a 1-0 win, so it was void.

@CaaC (John) loses on both picks, Wales failing to beat Armenia, but unfortunately takes the wooden spoon award for having Switzerland in their failure to beat Kosovo at home - which is the shortest priced loser of the season at 1/4 (1.25).

The other three players, me, @Stan and @Lucas all overlapped with our fixtures, but nobody managed any success. Stan did pick two winning teams but both could only manage 2-0 victories, not enough to get the over 2.5 goals. Lucas quite funnily took the exact same selection on Stockport but at shorter odds. He also drops it on Chesterfield's loss at Southend - another laughable one I can add to my own list. I need to compile the amount of teams I've killed the form of this season. The Salford pick didn't pay off either.

A week to forget, and thankfully, I think most of us have done.

WEEK 17 - LONDON BUS LEAGUE TABLES

WEEK 17 STATS
Winning bets: 3/8
Winning selections: 10/16
Weekly forum position: -£10.25 (Ranked 7/17)

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OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 32/122
Winning selections: 109/232
Total forum position: -£251.75

To be honest, I look through this weeks and think we really deserved a bit more than we actually got. I think to post a loss, albeit not a particularly damaging one, given we landed 10 selections out of 16 is really unlucky, one of those weeks where doing £5 singles would've undoubtedly landed us on a better overall score, but such is the nature.

@Pyfish is back after a couple of weeks off but is let down on his short priced Friday night double by Leeds' failure to beat Rotherham. A surprising result but I have to say having seen the odds I actually had a fiver on Rotherham to win, 9/1 for a home side in the Championship! The bookies really do seem to rate Leeds, probably above even ourselves based on the game to game prices you see. PSG beat Monaco 5-2, no errors made there.

@Machado is back in classic fashion. Marcelino having a dream debut as manager of Villarreal by beating Osasuna 4-1 meaning the double chance was absolutely comfortable. Squeaky bum time at Lyon v Lille as Lille scored two early goals, but that's all that happened and the under 3.5 pays out.

He moves above @CaaC (John) who becomes the second member of the top three to lose on a result I'm happy to see play out for selfish reasons. Having landed from my holiday I was delighted to see that not only had we won, but Ipswich had lost at West Brom. Ideal weekend for us, not so much for John.

@Storts returned to the game this weekend with a double in the Championship. Birmingham delivered, Middlesbrough didn't. A frustrating one.

@RandoEFC is the form player of the game at the minute. For the third weekend running he wins one of his -1.5 picks and has the other win by a goal meaning he gets a small win. Slow and steady seeing him creep up the table with his sixth win in eight weeks, although the last three have only seen him net £11.90 profit. Zilina were a team widely tipped in circles I follow and they only won 1-0, but Slovan Bratislava did the business, winning 0-2.

@Stan makes it 10 losses in 11 weeks. Winning on Chesterfield's game with Eastleigh but being let down by Oxford at Cheltenham. Interestingly on the football league podcast I listen to, one of the presenters is an Oxford fan and his long shot bet of the weekend was Oxford to lose to nil, a fantastic pick.

@...Dan finally lands a double on the European scene and moves himself back off the bottom. Racing Santander beat Villarreal B 2-0 in a fairly comprehensive looking display, while Heerenveen made light work of Fortuna Sittard, winning 3-0, two of them penalties.

I'm back on the bottom, 1 win in 17 is absolutely abject. This is one of the really unlucky ones as well. Fortuna Dusseldorf won their game 5-3 so I was definitely right to take the over 1.5 goals angle on that one rather than under 4.5, but Southampton chucked it late on at Huddersfield and drew 1-1, costing me what would've been a pretty healthy win. I'm happy enough to drop one on Southampton dropping points to one of the leagues worst sides though, so swings and roundabouts.

Another week commences, should all be back to normal service this weekend. European action, and FA Cup replacing most of the lower league schedule for the weekend, though there is a full EFL fixture list midweek as well, so loads to choose from, and no excuses for not finding two who can win! (He says with '1 win in 17').

[Dan+]

I'm going to do something I don't think anyone has yet done, and you're actually well within your rights to do this, but I've found something I like tomorrow. I'm going to have this selection and then potentially a second at the weekend, but I haven't decided what yet. That being said, if I don't have another and tomorrow nights does win, I can also opt to just not have another and go with that. Nobody has yet done this but there's no reason not to - granted I suppose if you do lose on your early one then it's over and there's no point making a second.

Tomorrow night, I am taking this:

I think that's a frankly unreal price. Antwerp are on 4/4 losses in the Champions League this season, only 5th in the Belgian league following their title win last time out. They've shipped 14 goals in their 4 games, and their only way of staying in Europe this season is to win at Shakhtar and beat Barcelona while swinging the goal difference by 10 goals. Putting it simply, they are finishing 4th for sure, they have virtually nothing to play for. Shakhtar beat Barcelona in their last 'home' game and won 2-3 in Belgium in the reverse fixture, while knowing that a failure to win here could likely end their hopes of qualifying. I think it's two teams that will have to go for it, so if Shakhtar win, I don't really see it only being 1-0. The price offered is really juicy, I really don't get how it's that big.

[Stan]

5 hours ago, Dan said:

@Stan makes it 10 losses in 11 weeks. Winning on Chesterfield's game with Eastleigh but being let down by Oxford at Cheltenham. Interestingly on the football league podcast I listen to, one of the presenters is an Oxford fan and his long shot bet of the weekend was Oxford to lose to nil, a fantastic pick.

 

Please tell me these things beforehand .

I only realised as I was watching Soccer Saturday that Oxford's boss left to be hired by Bristol City. I should pay more attention to stuff like that as it's quite clearly they missed their boss that had got them into such good form to begin with.