Dan's Tipping Game

[CaaC (John)+]

I will keep plodding along.

Saturday 23rd September

EPL
Brentford v Everton - £5 on a toffee win

SPFL
Hibernian v St, Johnston - £5 on a Hibee win

[Stan]

Carrying you fuckers right here

[Pyfish+]

Taking a risk on Gordon actually playing but he's very clumsy going into challenges sometimes and has a bit of a anger streak too. 

For Luton, it was either go for the win or go for them to score a goal, so I went for the latter at slightly better odds.

[Machado]

Bayern Munich over 1.5 team total

Sporting Lisbon to score a goal

[Dan+]

11 hours ago, Machado said:

It was both teams to not lose by 2 or more. Augsburg lost by 3 so it's an L yes.

In which case that's table updated, albeit still a loss for you but slightly boosts the all important selection wins.

[Dan+]

8 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Going to stick with my -1 handicap approach because in this game refunds can be really valuable so as to avoid losing £10 even if the winnings are a bit slow and steady.

Hopefully I'm not underestimating Union Berlin here but at Real Madrid I'd be surprised if they can come away with anything. Hoping Madrid can win by a couple.

I'm really surprised by the price on the Bayern v Man Utd match. United have been awful to start the season and I have very little doubt that Bayern can see them off.

£10 > 

> £0 if Real Madrid or Bayern fail to win.

> £10 if Real Madrid and Bayern both win by 1.

> £15.75 if Real Madrid win by more than 1 and Bayern win by 1.

> £18.80 if Real Madrid win by 1 and Bayern win by more than 1.

> £29.60 if both Real Madrid and Bayern win by more than one goal.

I actually really quite like this bet in general, completely agree with the reasoning, only catch for me is Real Madrid do have a bit of a weird knack of losing silly group games but I think that's also because they're quite slow starters often and really grow into a season, whereas this season they've won every game.

[Dan+]

7 hours ago, Pyfish said:

Taking a risk on Gordon actually playing but he's very clumsy going into challenges sometimes and has a bit of a anger streak too. 

For Luton, it was either go for the win or go for them to score a goal, so I went for the latter at slightly better odds.

I happened to look at this yesterday about Gordon and I had him to be booked in their game against Liverpool. It turns out that's the only game this season he hasn't been booked in. That's a good price in a game like that.

[Lucas]

I can't do a screenshot so hopefully this will suffice as evidence.as its a Paddy Power special that's been boosted.

Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Theo Hernandez to commit 1 foul each in AC Milan v Newcastle game.

£10 wins £30.

Edited September 19, 2023 by Lucas

[RandoEFC+]

On 19/09/2023 at 08:38, RandoEFC said:

£10 > 

> £0 if Real Madrid or Bayern fail to win.

> £10 if Real Madrid and Bayern both win by 1.

> £15.75 if Real Madrid win by more than 1 and Bayern win by 1.

> £18.80 if Real Madrid win by 1 and Bayern win by more than 1.

> £29.60 if both Real Madrid and Bayern win by more than one goal.

A proper roller coaster to end up breaking even .

[Dan+]

On 19/09/2023 at 17:21, Lucas said:

I can't do a screenshot so hopefully this will suffice as evidence.as its a Paddy Power special that's been boosted.

Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes and Theo Hernandez to commit 1 foul each in AC Milan v Newcastle game.

£10 wins £30.

This according to WhoScored has lost; https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1775679/LiveStatistics/Europe-Champions-League-2023-2024-AC-Milan-Newcastle

Tonali 4
Guimaraes 1
Hernandez 0

[Dan+]

On 19/09/2023 at 01:26, Dan said:

For mine this week I head to Europe and a couple of teams who have either never played there, or are making a debut.

I'm very big on Brighton. I think they're easily one of the best 5 teams in England in this day and age and despite it being an opening game in Europe, this is a quite kind fixture. AEK Athens are Greek champions but they have started quite badly this time out, and there is a quite severe gulf in quality in this game so I fully expect Brighton to hit 3/4. I think evens on them getting 3 is quite generous.

Aston Villa I'm less big on but I simply think they have the best manager for these games they could have and they will make a far better fist of this fixture than we did two years ago. Legia are poor, the Polish league is miles off it now and I fully expect the gulf in quality to shine through.

£10 returns £30.

How is it even possible to be this unlucky  

[Machado]

On 19/09/2023 at 10:20, Machado said:

Bayern Munich over 1.5 team total

Sporting Lisbon to score a goal

Winner for me

[...Dan]

Pau (2.70) v Annecy

Concarneau v Saint Étienne (2.15)

£10 returns £58.05.

I'm shocked by the Pau odds. They're above Annecy in the table and have the 3rd best home record in the league, with 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 goals scored and only 2 conceded. I was actually tempted to just do the single, but where's the fun in that?

[Stan]

Going relatively ambitious again 

[...Dan]

On 22/09/2023 at 02:07, ...Dan said:

Pau (2.70) v Annecy

Concarneau v Saint Étienne (2.15)

£10 returns £58.05.

I'm shocked by the Pau odds. They're above Annecy in the table and have the 3rd best home record in the league, with 2 wins, 1 draw, 7 goals scored and only 2 conceded. I was actually tempted to just do the single, but where's the fun in that?

Man I really thought I was on to a win here. Pau 2-0 down at half time

[Stan]

On 22/09/2023 at 13:28, Stan said:

Going relatively ambitious again 

One came in, but needed angry Norwich players for some bookings in the top one. 

[Dan+]

On 19/09/2023 at 08:53, CaaC (John) said:

I will keep plodding along.

Saturday 23rd September

EPL
Brentford v Everton - £5 on a toffee win

SPFL
Hibernian v St, Johnston - £5 on a Hibee win

I've been doing it as a £10 bet on either a single or a double - however these have both won so it's gonna be as a £10 double. A very good win as well actually. Going to be £70ish off the top of my head. Shoots you up the table.

[Pyfish+]

If only Gordon had got himself booked!

[CaaC (John)+]

I will keep rolling along 

Spanish La Liga - Sunday 1st October

Atlético Madrid v Cádiz -  a win (Bald)

Italian Serie A

Atlanta v Juve - a win (Bald)

Edit: Make that £10 a double then.

[Dan+]

On 19/09/2023 at 01:06, Dan said:

WEEK 7 - REGRESSION

The run of progressive improvement is over as a tough post international weekend takes its toll on most who played this weekend, with quite a number of odd results in my opinion.

@Stan retains his lead at the top of the table but he's miles off this weekend, as Ebbsfleet v Chesterfield ended 0-1 and the Oxford City - Dagenham game, where 4 goals were needed, ended goalless. It's a familiar theme to how mine have gone this season with many results seeming more random than ever. To rub salt into the wounds, the other bet he nearly went for at bigger odds paid quite considerably, so hopefully you took them both for real!

@Pyfish rushed his selections by his own admittance and neither of his goalscorers found the net, but an interesting angle to go with as well, I think you certainly have the possibility of some nice payouts looking at those sorts of odds and I might even go up that route myself. He remains in 99p profit overall, but strangely not the nearest to breakeven. That goes to @Machado who couldn't follow up last weeks win this time around. It isn't entirely clear what he's bet on to me from the screenshot, but he's definitely in some form backed Estrela Amadora and Augsburg and both of them lost so he definitely hasn't won.

@Lucas becomes the 6th member to land a winner, deserting me at the bottom of the table and in the process landing the season's biggest victory so far with a nicely executed double. Oxford's price seems absurdly big in hindsight, they won 0-3 against a dreadful Fleetwood and Chesterfield as mentioned earlier won 0-1.

@RandoEFC claims the first 'push' of the season. As somebody still fairly unfamiliar with Asian Handicap's exact ruling I was at least aware that a Tottenham 1 goal victory made this a draw no bet essentially, and their late turnaround means the Barcelona 5-0 victory is enough to seal the smallest win of the season, but a win nontheless - two wins in a row after starting with five losses.

And then we move onto the three who are still yet to win. @CaaC (John)'s bet I had registered as a double but neither selection actually won anyway, with a 2-2 draw in Scotland and Inter winning the Milan derby 5-1. And then me and @...Dan - he picks a nice winner with Dinamo Zagreb, who pick up a 3-0 victory over Slaven Belupo to secure the -2 handicap victory.

But we must talk Lens.

A pretty remarkable game, one of the weird occasions where I place a bet at a particular price, and what pans out actually makes me think despite it losing the price was slightly higher than it ought to have been. They absolutely dominated it from start to finish yet couldn't find the goal. A genuine freak of a result and a massive blow to them, their bad start gets worse as the Champions League gets underway. It didn't cost me as naturally I managed to dry up Swindon's chaos (2-0), but a Lens win here would've secured Dan a £19.18 win - which would've actually seen the forum profit by 2p overall this weekend

A bad weekend. 7 fucking losses in a row. I was genuinely really good at this last season, I had my best ever season for betting but this season's been complete and utter rubbish. I'm calling a lot of bad luck. It'll come.

WEEK 7 STATS
Winning bets: 2/8 (25%)
Winning selections: 5/15* (33.33%)
Weekly forum position: -£19.16

*Includes Asian Handicap 'push' - not included as winner or loser

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 10/48 (20.83%)
Winning selections: 37/94 (39.4%)
Total forum position: -£210.58

WEEK 8 - UPTURN AND THE BIGGEST WIN YET

We're back in the green this week but it's mainly thanks to one particular member which shall be covered later. The hint is it isn't me.

We have a new leader this week in the form of @Machado who seems to favour calculated safe picks. Sporting took their time to bag in their trip to Austria but did end up scoring twice in a late turnaround win. Bayern hit twice in the space of four minutes to pay out the original leg of the bet, to take home a £7.64 profit and put himself back in the green.

A congratulations must go to @CaaC (John) for this weeks effort though. He's gone a little more conservative in recent weeks rather than picking audatious upset scorelines and instead just picking an underdog to go with a favourite. I'll mention again that you get one bet a week, one £10 bet and you use it on one or two selections, rather than two £5 bets - luckily there's not yet been any issue as you've either won on both or lost on both, but this week for example your two selections will be put into a £10 double rather than two sets of £5. This may cost you on another week, however this week Everton's win at Brentford contributed to the season's biggest win yet, and the same result was the single biggest odds winner to pay out this season as they turned in a surprise 1-3 victory. Hibs made no mistake in their leg of the bet either, beating St Johnstone 2-0 at home. Should you have done two £5 bets on these outcomes, you would be £19.40 up rather than the £57.12 you are!

@Stan had built up a bit of profit meaning that he stays in the green despite falling to a second straight loss this weekend. Interested to hear the rationale behind the games you're going for on these - are they just random or is there a reason those particular fixtures were singled out? I do find it quite peculiar that a game that ended 6-2 didn't pay out here as that just hints chaos to me, but we only had the one card in this game, which surprises me.

@Storts hasn't predicted for a while but retains a top half spot. @Pyfish is let down by Anthony Gordon failing to get a card at the San Siro, although Luton did score a goal for a selection winner, albeit in quite dubious circumstances.

@Lucas can consider himself unlucky to lose this week. Tonali picking up an impressive 4 fouls on his return home, Guimaraes 1 but Theo Hernandez failing to commit any - probably helped by how dominant Milan were during most of the game.

@RandoEFC's peculiar asian handicap bet has resulted in the first breakeven of the season as both teams ended up with single goal victories - with Real Madrid's coming in injury time and Bayern - Man Utd's back and forth resulting in a 4-3, so it can't be classed as a winner, but a good example of the value of asian handicaps I suppose and how it's a good way to hedge a bet - I say as somebody who was done by Barcelona at the weekend failing to win their game by over a goal.

@...Dan's trip to France doesn't pay off as Pau ended up losing 0-3 to Annecy, although St Etienne did win their game so he gets that selection right at least.

And then we move to me. Eight bets. Eight losses. This one is probably the worst yet. Absolute abject toss in every way imaginable. Two comfortable favourites both fail to land either leg of the bet, both suffering shock defeats. Aston Villa's performance was abysmal, I didn't think they would fall into the same pitfall that we did two years ago yet here we are. Brighton really surprised me though, I thought they would take AEK to pieces and they've not only failed to hit 3 goals, but they've lost the game and are in a pretty precarious position in the group now. I don't think many would believe me if I told them I won around £400 this weekend on separate accumulators, but I'm definitely picking the wrong stuff to throw onto here. I however retain faith that this is going to turn around, but simply funny to lose eight straight. It's really, really bad. Appalling.

Overall, it's actually the second best week yet though.

 

WEEK 8 STATS
Winning bets: 2/8 (25%)
Winning selections: 7/13* (53.8%)
Weekly forum position: +£14.76

*Includes Asian Handicap 'push' x2 - not included as winner or loser

 

OVERALL STATS
Winning bets: 12/56 (21.43%)
Winning selections: 44/107 (41.1%)
Total forum position: -£195.82

[Stan]

3 hours ago, Dan said:

@Stan had built up a bit of profit meaning that he stays in the green despite falling to a second straight loss this weekend. Interested to hear the rationale behind the games you're going for on these - are they just random or is there a reason those particular fixtures were singled out? I do find it quite peculiar that a game that ended 6-2 didn't pay out here as that just hints chaos to me, but we only had the one card in this game, which surprises me.

I'll scour a fair few games and look at their recent fixtures - the goals and corners 'usually' come in fairly easy. Then it's just a case of the bookings - I'll look at how bad their discipline is in general, and especially these days with refs being much more stricter. For Norwich, there was an average 4.75 bookings in their previous 3 games; for Plymouth there was an average of 3.33 bookings in their previous 3. So to me that's a pretty unlucky anomaly for their game together to have only had 1 booking.

I'll usually go for sides that like to attack, too - as that means the goals is more likely to come in, and more attacking opportunities leads to the likelihood of more corners.  

There were 7 corners by half-time in their game, and obviously goals came in with ease. Then it was just a case of hoping for Norwich to lose their discipline.

For the Cambridge/Port Vale game, it was literally half-way there by half-time - 1 goal, 5 corners and 2 bookings. 

I was very tempted to go for Over 2.5 goals/over 9.5 corners/over 35 booking points in the North London Derby - that came in very easily and the odds were about 5/1 I think. 

[Machado]

Bracknell over 1.5 team total

Hartlepool vs Solihull under 3.5 match goals

[Machado]

That's my 10£ gone for the week. Quite the upset considering Bracknell's home record.

[Pyfish+]

Stupid odds. Will probably lose.

[Pyfish+]

Arghh. Tonali got a yellow but Alvarez didn't get a goal.