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Betting tips a.k.a Will it be sh*t? Crystal Palace vs Brighton

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So yesterday I had the opportunity to go to St Mary's to watch Southampton vs Cardiff. And my fucking lord the standard of football on offer was absolute shite. So I decided I'd kick off an irregular series of insights and views into Premier League games.

Tottenham vs Leicester 13:30

Image result for Tottenham vs leicester city

Leicester haven't won a game in their last five outings in all competitions. The only variable in that series of course was the 1-1 draw at Anfield. They've also scored 17 but conceded 18 away from home in the league where they've won 5, drawn 3 and lost 5. That said, prior to the 5-4 victory at Wembley on the final day of last season, Tottenham had a record of 1 win in 6 at home versus Leicester. Tottenham's home record reads 8 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses and in the last 3 games at Wembley have scored the winning goal in the last 7 minutes. 

Will it be shit? It's a lunch time kick off and I'm renowned for having a propensity for diabolical predictions but I think both teams will score. I also think the 2nd half will be the more entertaining. Obviously an eye on Vardy to score, such is his will against the top six. 

Shit rating: 1.5/5 

It's not going to be a repeat of last seasons 5-4, if anything I expect Puel to play it cagey. Tottenham will be once again reliant on Son in the absence of Kane and Dele.

Optimistic Prediction: 2-1 home win

The "Got my Tommy Lee Jones hat on" prediction: 1-1 bore draw

think no country for old men GIF by MIRAMAX

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I think 5-4 is likely again in Spurs' favour.

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3 minutes ago, Stan said:

I think 5-4 is likely again in Spurs' favour.

 

Why? Are both the defences that shit? :ph34r:

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2 minutes ago, AMG said:

 

Why? Are both the defences that shit? :ph34r:

well ours definitely is.

Tell you one thing though - unlikely to be a draw given Spurs' record this season and our propensity to concede late on.

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Thought this was the new Mafia Wars when I saw the topic. Disappointed. 

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2 hours ago, Batard said:

3-1. Close. And not too shit either

Thoughts on Wolves vs Newcastle?

I'm thinking battling performance from Newcastle not enough to prevent a 2-0 defeat after a questionable hand-ball decision in the box goes against them and hands Wolves a penalty.

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6 minutes ago, Stan said:

Thoughts on Wolves vs Newcastle?

I'm thinking battling performance from Newcastle not enough to prevent a 2-0 defeat after a questionable hand-ball decision in the box goes against them and hands Wolves a penalty.

Fair question. I’ll make this the next match of focus.

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Only just seen this thread and found it fantastic. Get it done again for our game this weekend which is also on TV.

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February 22nd-24th

Image result for cardiff vs watford

Watford claimed the points in the reverse fixture, despite attempting to throw away 3 points in favour of 1 with some absurd defending after their 3rd goal. However recent form suggests Watford are a much tougher nut to crack, with the 2-1 defeat against Spurs being the only game they had conceded against an opponent, against Palace on the 12th January. Their away record in the Premier League to date reads: Won: 4, Drawn: 5 & Lost: 4, goals for: 17 & goals against: 16

It's worth noting only Liverpool;, Manchester City and Tottenham have conceded less goals away from home. Scoring goals though is a different story, managing exactly 17 at home and 17 away, Watford are very much a well drilled team who rarely concede many but aren't likely to overly trouble defences (they've only scored 2 or more goals in 9 of their 26 league matches). 

It's entirely possible Cardiff could avoid relegation following the Sala tragedy, you cannot underestimate the sense of unity that exists within the club and the motivation to succeed in the memory of the Argentine. They were pretty awful against Southampton in the first half but rode their luck and took their chances and what they lack in quality, they make up in application. Their home form has yielded the same amount of points as Watfords, 17 but defensively Cardiff are considerably worse. With a -8 goal difference in Wales (GF 15, GA 23), they've only kept 4 clean sheets at home, 2 since the turn of the year against a shite Huddersfield side and Bournemouth who are equally poor on the road. 

Will it be shit? Yes, pretty much. It's hard to see this being anything but a war of attrition. In their last 3 home games Cardiff managed 2 goals, both against Bournemouth. Watford are very hot and cold, regardless of where they play but they are particularly blunt against well drilled defences. 

Shit rating: 4/5

Optimistic prediction: Cardiff 1-0 Watford

The 'Tommy Lee does not approve this match' prediction: Cardiff 0-0 Watford

Image result for tommy lee jones gif

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Image result for brighton vs huddersfield

It's safe to say last time out the statistical based prediction for Cardiff vs Watford fell somewhat short reality. On reflection, Watford are something of a wild card who can concede and score a hatful on an given day, albeit seemingly away from home moreso than at home.

Anyway. Today it's Brighton vs Huddersfield. Intuition says this will be a low scoring game, full of endeavour but low on quality. In short, it's got shit fest written all over it. Then again, so did Cardiff vs Watford. Let's put together some statistical analysis to see if intuition bears this out. 

Brighton sit 16th and let's not beat around the bush. They're shit. With only 2 points collected in 2019 and 7 goals scored in 7 games, whilst shipping 14 this is a team in relegation form. If they fail to win against Huddersfield it's not hyperbole to state that they're becoming clear relegation fodder. 

Their last home win was 29th December 2018 against Everton, courtesy of a Jurgen Locadia goal. However since that result the years changed over and 2019 has seen bizarre imploding performances. Most concerning though they've specifically come against relegation rivals. Two games in particular standout, first where Fulham overturned a 2 goal lead to beat Brighton 4-2 at Craven Cottage, all Fulham's goals came in the 2nd half. Against Burnley they got battered at home despite a strong showing in the 1st half denied by the brilliance of Tom Heaton, it was again the damage being done in the 2nd half. Whether it's mentality or fatigue something isn't quite right when Brighton return from half time breaks. 

Across the entirety of the season, their home form ranks them an average mid table side:

Won: 5   Drawn: 4   Lost: 4   Scored: 16   Conceded: 15

In contrast Huddersfield Town's away form has 'dead in the water' written all over it:

Won: 1   Drawn: 3   Lost: 9   Scored: 8   Conceded: 28

That solitary win coming back in November against Wolves. Not just bottom of the league but Huddersfield simply don't travel well. Despite this, Newcastle made hardwork of their 2-0 victory against them despite being gifted countless chances. In their 3 away games in 2019, the Terriers have taken 1 point and conceded 7 goals. Granted, 5 against Chelsea who were looking for a reaction after getting thumped at City. Huddersfield whilst hardworking are a very poor side. They can't organise themselves for shit and look so blunt up front that you wonder whether they even score in training. 

However, despite how poor they've been on the road their 1st half performances haven't been too bad. The collapse begins almost immediately before or after the start of the 2nd half. 

Taking all of this into consideration, intuition and statistical analysis:

Half Time

Brighton 1-0 Huddersfield (Goal between 30-45 minute mark)

Fulltime Result

Brighton 2-0 Huddersfield (Goal between 75-90 minute mark)

 

Goal methods

1x Header

1x right foot shot in the 6 yard box

Obvious tip

Shane Duffy to score from a setpiece

Obscure tip:

Pascal Gross to get booked

 

Shots on goal

Brighton to have less than 10 shots on target

Huddersfield to have less than 3 shots on target

 

Corners

Brighton to have 5+ corners

Huddersfield to have 2 or less corners

 

Asian Handicap

Brighton -0.5

Shit rating

4.5/5

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This is going to be undoubted excrement.

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Certified - SHITE

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6 hours ago, Dan said:

Certified - SHITE

One of the worst games I've had to sit through highlights of. I can only imagine how bad it was to see live. 

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Brighton recently lost at Fulham which tells you all you need to know about their league away form. 

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From the incredible support at Selhurst Park to the passion shown by the players, the M23 Derby at Selhurst Park is always a gripping and exciting contest.

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4 hours ago, The Palace Fan said:

From the incredible support at Selhurst Park to the passion shown by the players, the M23 Derby at Selhurst Park is always a gripping and exciting contest.

Anyone shat in any changing rooms yet? 

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Not sure I would add a derby to “Will it be Sh*t?”, regardless of whether both sides’ stats point towards it being shit. 

Huddersfield v Bournemouth would be my pick this coming weekend. 

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17 minutes ago, Smiley Culture said:

Not sure I would add a derby to “Will it be Sh*t?”, regardless of whether both sides’ stats point towards it being shit. 

Huddersfield v Bournemouth would be my pick this coming weekend. 

That was my first pick. 

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Palace vs Brighton, 12:30 Saturday 9th March

The lunch time kick off provides us the feast of the curious case of the South London vs East Sussex derby. Let's look at the away team first. 

 

Brighton Club Badge 

Brighton come off the back of a 1-0 home win against Huddersfield, but their away form is utter shite with their last away win being against the very same team they beat Saturday, 2-1 on the 1st December 2018. 

Played 14; Won: 2   Drawn: 2   Lost: 10   Goals scored: 13   Goals conceded: 26 

This calendar year they've collected one point away from home (And only 5 in total home and away in 2019). Brighton right now are truly awful, dull uninspiring, lacking a cutting edge and players lacking confidence. Andone returning from a suspension to score against Huddersfield is a plus and Murray will certainly be a sound bet to score against his former side anything more than a goal seems extremely unlikely. And them taking the lead in this match would certainly not bode well, against West Ham and Fulham they squandered two goal leads. So in the event of Brighton taking the lead here I'd immediately back Palace to draw but more favourably, to win. 

Might be worth a sniff: Murray or Andone to be booked

Crystal Palace Club Badge

Crystal Palace are quite the enigma. In four matches at home in 2019 they've taken exactly that, four points. Their home form in general this season for a Hodgson side has been abysmal.

Played 14; Won: 3   Drawn: 4   Lost: 7   Goals scored: 10   Goals conceded: 15 

Things are on up though after a slow start. But a good performance against United counted for little as the away team ran out with a 3-1 win however either side of that result, they've battered both Leicester and Burnley away from home with some swashbuckling counterattacking. The issue though is inescapable, things are coming together for them at Selhurst Park. If we look further back, to the 1-1 against West Ham, it really was a case of not being able to shoot for shit. 25 shots on goal, only 5 on target, properly wasteful stuff. The 2-1 defeat at home to Watford really is the odd one, it was quite an even match but again they couldn't take their chances, 6 shots on target from the 15 mustered. Although compare this to Watford's two shots on target resulting in both their goals. So Palace look blunt at home and Brighton haven't lost by more than a two goal margin all season in the league so statistically and intuitively I'm compelled to go with:  

Home win, BTTS Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton

Will it be shit? Derbies can be feisty affairs but I don't think this is going to be a blood thunder exhibition of rivalry. More than the fans than the players. 

Shit rating: 3/5 Simply because Brighton are diabolical and Palace struggle to put their chances away at home

Betting on it being shit: Go for 1-1 with Brighton taking the lead completely against the run of play and Palace finally equalising between the 66th-76th minute

Thus concludes this faeces thesis

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We obviously lost at Palace.

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Our home matches tend to be matches where we pepper the other teams goal with shots but still drop points. We've dropped points to the likes of Cardiff, Southampton, Watford, Wolves, Newcastle and West Ham because of it. I feel with Batshuayi upfront we are beginning to turn the corner though. We wouldn't have beaten Burnley so convincing without him.

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1 minute ago, The Palace Fan said:

Our home matches tend to be matches where we pepper the other teams goal with shots but still drop points. We've dropped points to the likes of Cardiff, Southampton, Watford, Wolves, Newcastle and West Ham because of it. I feel with Batshuayi upfront we are beginning to turn the corner though. We wouldn't have beaten Burnley so convincing without him.

His goal at the weekend was very well taken.

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Of the teams in the lower reaches of the league, Palace certainly have an abundance of pace and power to burn. That's effectively going to keep them in the league. Its more surprising they're not doing better. 

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On 04/03/2019 at 09:57, Batard said:

Palace vs Brighton, 12:30 Saturday 9th March

The lunch time kick off provides us the feast of the curious case of the South London vs East Sussex derby. Let's look at the away team first. 

 

Brighton Club Badge 

Brighton come off the back of a 1-0 home win against Huddersfield, but their away form is utter shite with their last away win being against the very same team they beat Saturday, 2-1 on the 1st December 2018. 

Played 14; Won: 2   Drawn: 2   Lost: 10   Goals scored: 13   Goals conceded: 26 

This calendar year they've collected one point away from home (And only 5 in total home and away in 2019). Brighton right now are truly awful, dull uninspiring, lacking a cutting edge and players lacking confidence. Andone returning from a suspension to score against Huddersfield is a plus and Murray will certainly be a sound bet to score against his former side anything more than a goal seems extremely unlikely. And them taking the lead in this match would certainly not bode well, against West Ham and Fulham they squandered two goal leads. So in the event of Brighton taking the lead here I'd immediately back Palace to draw but more favourably, to win. 

Might be worth a sniff: Murray or Andone to be booked

Crystal Palace Club Badge

Crystal Palace are quite the enigma. In four matches at home in 2019 they've taken exactly that, four points. Their home form in general this season for a Hodgson side has been abysmal.

Played 14; Won: 3   Drawn: 4   Lost: 7   Goals scored: 10   Goals conceded: 15 

Things are on up though after a slow start. But a good performance against United counted for little as the away team ran out with a 3-1 win however either side of that result, they've battered both Leicester and Burnley away from home with some swashbuckling counterattacking. The issue though is inescapable, things are coming together for them at Selhurst Park. If we look further back, to the 1-1 against West Ham, it really was a case of not being able to shoot for shit. 25 shots on goal, only 5 on target, properly wasteful stuff. The 2-1 defeat at home to Watford really is the odd one, it was quite an even match but again they couldn't take their chances, 6 shots on target from the 15 mustered. Although compare this to Watford's two shots on target resulting in both their goals. So Palace look blunt at home and Brighton haven't lost by more than a two goal margin all season in the league so statistically and intuitively I'm compelled to go with:  

Home win, BTTS Crystal Palace 2-1 Brighton

Will it be shit? Derbies can be feisty affairs but I don't think this is going to be a blood thunder exhibition of rivalry. More than the fans than the players. 

Shit rating: 3/5 Simply because Brighton are diabolical and Palace struggle to put their chances away at home

Betting on it being shit: Go for 1-1 with Brighton taking the lead completely against the run of play and Palace finally equalising between the 66th-76th minute

Thus concludes this faeces thesis

Murray booked and correct score, just an incorrect outcome. 

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