American Politics Discussion

[DeadLinesman]

1 minute ago, Cicero said:

More of a chance Trump forms his own political party than being the future of the Republican party. At least, I'd hope the Republicans aren't that obtuse. 

It’s the hope that kills you.

[RandoEFC+]

I don't understand why they think he's their path to victory. He has a base that are absolutely in awe of him, he inspired loyalty in those people probably more than any other candidate, I get that, but that base isn't a majority in America and he's lost his appeal to the extra ones you need to win elections. He won the presidential election without the popular vote, and then oversaw the Republicans losing control of Congress, the Senate and the Presidency in the space of one term. I don't get which part of that makes them think he's the one to get them back into power.

You see the same thing in the UK with Labour actually. People still absolutely convinced that Jeremy Corbyn is worth backing to the hilt despite taking the party further away from power than they have been since getting voted out, all because he appealed so strongly to a noisy minority.

[Azeem]

[Harry]

22 hours ago, Cicero said:

More of a chance Trump forms his own political party than being the future of the Republican party. At least, I'd hope the Republicans aren't that obtuse. 

I dont think Trump has the resolve to pull that off TBH. He's too lazy, but i suppose there will be people like Bannon and Miller that would rally around him and present him with a piece of paper to sign to make it happen so never say never.

Recent polling has suggested around half the GOP base identify more with trump than with the party, so the potential is there. 

22 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I don't understand why they think he's their path to victory. He has a base that are absolutely in awe of him, he inspired loyalty in those people probably more than any other candidate, I get that, but that base isn't a majority in America and he's lost his appeal to the extra ones you need to win elections. He won the presidential election without the popular vote, and then oversaw the Republicans losing control of Congress, the Senate and the Presidency in the space of one term. I don't get which part of that makes them think he's the one to get them back into power.

You see the same thing in the UK with Labour actually. People still absolutely convinced that Jeremy Corbyn is worth backing to the hilt despite taking the party further away from power than they have been since getting voted out, all because he appealed so strongly to a noisy minority.

Insiders would be hoping Trump isnt the future, but be keeping up appearances with the voters, and also recognising Trump still has a huge impact in their sphere.

But to play the devils advocate, why Trump should be the future.

Trump just turned out a record 74 million voters, and only lost the election by around 45,000 votes combined across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. And although Biden wasnt an inspiring candidate at all, he did do enough, in midwest states which Clinton lost, to turn around the result from 2016. He has cred in those states in a way most dem 2024 contenders do not. The likely nominee in 2024 being Kamala, a California democrat is probably going to lose those states again to Trump.

Whilst the  lie of the ïllegitimate" election result has faded, the voter fraud notion is being seized upon by republicans for new voter ID laws which will be impactful in 2022 House and senate elections, and 2024. The GOP did well in legislative elections in 2020 putting them again significantly more in control of this years redistricting, which will see more gerrymandering, and probably eliminate a few democratic house seats. Amounts to putting the GOP in a favourable position to take back the house in 2022.

The other branch of government is the senate, which has a massive small state bias. Dems winning big states by huge margins counts for nothing in the senate. 2 senators per state, and the median state for the balance of power in the senate (Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Georgia) is around 6 points more conservative than the country as a whole. The 2022 draw is rough, but 2024 is better, and those biases put them in good stead, especially if the guy at the top of the ticket is good at turning out the base. 

So honestly I can see Trump being a strong contender to win in 2024, and consistent with the decay of conservative politics he is more representative of their coalition than a Harvard guy like Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley, or a "true to conservative principles" outsider like Mitt Romney or Adam Kinzinger.

That said, I think he will probably be in  legal and possibly financial trouble by then so is probably an outside bet.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

I know it’s early days in the Biden presidency, but the early sentiment has a lot of people feeling: “shit, the republicans are going to win the house and senate in 2022” just based on how the latest covid relief bill is getting watered down by “moderate” democrats that are siding against what 80% of voters on both parties want.

[Viva la FCB+]

On 27/02/2021 at 05:36, Harry said:

I dont think Trump has the resolve to pull that off TBH. He's too lazy, but i suppose there will be people like Bannon and Miller that would rally around him and present him with a piece of paper to sign to make it happen so never say never.

Recent polling has suggested around half the GOP base identify more with trump than with the party, so the potential is there. 

Insiders would be hoping Trump isnt the future, but be keeping up appearances with the voters, and also recognising Trump still has a huge impact in their sphere.

But to play the devils advocate, why Trump should be the future.

Trump just turned out a record 74 million voters, and only lost the election by around 45,000 votes combined across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. And although Biden wasnt an inspiring candidate at all, he did do enough, in midwest states which Clinton lost, to turn around the result from 2016. He has cred in those states in a way most dem 2024 contenders do not. The likely nominee in 2024 being Kamala, a California democrat is probably going to lose those states again to Trump.

Whilst the  lie of the ïllegitimate" election result has faded, the voter fraud notion is being seized upon by republicans for new voter ID laws which will be impactful in 2022 House and senate elections, and 2024. The GOP did well in legislative elections in 2020 putting them again significantly more in control of this years redistricting, which will see more gerrymandering, and probably eliminate a few democratic house seats. Amounts to putting the GOP in a favourable position to take back the house in 2022. 

One big thing here, the big lie isnt fading. it isnt going anywhere. Checkout any of the media reports or speeches from CPAC. The lie is alive and well and will help them push the agenda of making voting harder. The GOP knows they cannot and willnot win a fair election so this lie helps them push to the brink the restrictions and surpresssion they need. The only excuse they need, its going nowhere.

The other branch of government is the senate, which has a massive small state bias. Dems winning big states by huge margins counts for nothing in the senate. 2 senators per state, and the median state for the balance of power in the senate (Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Georgia) is around 6 points more conservative than the country as a whole. The 2022 draw is rough, but 2024 is better, and those biases put them in good stead, especially if the guy at the top of the ticket is good at turning out the base. 

So honestly I can see Trump being a strong contender to win in 2024, and consistent with the decay of conservative politics he is more representative of their coalition than a Harvard guy like Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley, or a "true to conservative principles" outsider like Mitt Romney or Adam Kinzinger. The funny part is the retrumplicans have been censoring and slapping every single member thats voted against trump in anyway. TRUE conservatives such as Ben Sass or Liz Cheney have next to nothing in common with Trump and are now seen as outsiders. Even Kinzinger is super conservative... military man himself but this party has gone so far off the deepend that the nutjobs like Marjorie Taylor fuckface is becoming the norm. And god fucking damnit I want someone to punch Lindsey Graham in the face...also find out what the fuck trump has on him

the Irony in all of this is guys like Cruz and Hawley are quite bright, quite well educated as you mention. More so my point is towards Cruz, he knows damn well what hes doing. He knows exactly who their base is and who he has to pander to. Did you catch any of his Cpac stuff? absolutely deplorable. but thats exactly what the redneck base laps up. Cruz knows much as well as Hawley with their presidential aspirations they need the trump base for their inevitable runs at some point in time, whether thats the 24 or later remains to be seen.

That said, I think he will probably be in  legal and possibly financial trouble by then so is probably an outside bet.

 

Few caveats or points of view ill add in here. But overall good stuff.

[Harry]

There really does need to be a new term than Conservative for the Trump party now. They really don't espouse any conservative policies other than maybe hating on cancel culture.

[Viva la FCB+]

Keilars great but this actually explains perfectly what I was getting at in regards to the big lie and how its being used now, Georgia has been and is currently in motion here. There was a report about peolpe waiting 11 hours in certain Counties in Georgia to vote, so they handed out water bottles and sometimes some snacks - well first thing being legislated is thats now illegal. Its funny how these "reforms" are only dem counties and targeting specifically minority and poorer areas. 

 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Viva la FCB

[RandoEFC+]

Trump couldn't even rig an election when he was the literal President. I'll cede to the superior expertise of others when it comes to US politics but as a logical thinker I just can't see how enough people in the US can make the psychological journey required to put him back in charge. Yes he got a huge number of votes at the last election, he still got a fucking lot less votes than the other guy, because he mobilises voters, but we've now seen that he mobilises more voters against him than he does in his favour.

If Trump runs again in 2024 the Democratic candidate needn't even appear behind a podium because they can spend all of their campaign money buying TV adverts to repeat footage of Trump mobilising an army of terrorists to march on Capitol Hill and enough of your central swing voters will remember what they'll actually get if they vote him in again.

QAnon claimed today that it's the day Trump is going to retake the Presidency fully in the knowledge that he won't, losing them even more credibility with their base. These are the types of people who form part of Trump's support base. Do you really think these are the people who can hold together a coalition of support over the next 4 years that can get them anywhere near an electoral majority?

Trump's biggest achievement in office is creating this myth around himself. He was an unorthodox candidate who managed to thread the electoral college needle despite losing the popular vote against a weak Democratic candidate. Even after he became the biggest loser in American history by conspiring to lose the Presidency, the Senate and the House all in a single term, people are STILL convinced that next time, against all logic he'll win "because it's Trump".

Throw all this big lie stuff at me as much as you want. I don't buy it. The only way he gets in again is if Biden's presidency is absolutely horrific or the Democrats nominate a different candidate who is absolutely awful.

[Harry]

2 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Trump couldn't even rig an election when he was the literal President. I'll cede to the superior expertise of others when it comes to US politics but as a logical thinker I just can't see how enough people in the US can make the psychological journey required to put him back in charge. Yes he got a huge number of votes at the last election, he still got a fucking lot less votes than the other guy, because he mobilises voters, but we've now seen that he mobilises more voters against him than he does in his favour.

If Trump runs again in 2024 the Democratic candidate needn't even appear behind a podium because they can spend all of their campaign money buying TV adverts to repeat footage of Trump mobilising an army of terrorists to march on Capitol Hill and enough of your central swing voters will remember what they'll actually get if they vote him in again.

QAnon claimed today that it's the day Trump is going to retake the Presidency fully in the knowledge that he won't, losing them even more credibility with their base. These are the types of people who form part of Trump's support base. Do you really think these are the people who can hold together a coalition of support over the next 4 years that can get them anywhere near an electoral majority?

Trump's biggest achievement in office is creating this myth around himself. He was an unorthodox candidate who managed to thread the electoral college needle despite losing the popular vote against a weak Democratic candidate. Even after he became the biggest loser in American history by conspiring to lose the Presidency, the Senate and the House all in a single term, people are STILL convinced that next time, against all logic he'll win "because it's Trump".

Throw all this big lie stuff at me as much as you want. I don't buy it. The only way he gets in again is if Biden's presidency is absolutely horrific or the Democrats nominate a different candidate who is absolutely awful.

I think your maybe underestimating Biden here. 

I would suggest almost every other Democrat who was running could easily have been Hillary Clinton 2.0 in that election. Imo

Kamala Harris loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

Pete B loses lots of Latino and African Americans and other socially conservative democrats. Definitely loses Georgia and Arizona, Pennsylvania.

Bernie loses many economically conservative voters. 

Amy K maybe competitive but not a very likeable presidential candidate. Probably doesn't turn out the African American vote as well as Biden. Loses Georgia, maybe Arizona.

Cory Booker was maybe the best general election candidate they had, but he just didn't stand out enough.

 

[RandoEFC+]

5 hours ago, Harry said:

I think your maybe underestimating Biden here. 

I would suggest almost every other Democrat who was running could easily have been Hillary Clinton 2.0 in that election. Imo

Kamala Harris loses Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.

Pete B loses lots of Latino and African Americans and other socially conservative democrats. Definitely loses Georgia and Arizona, Pennsylvania.

Bernie loses many economically conservative voters. 

Amy K maybe competitive but not a very likeable presidential candidate. Probably doesn't turn out the African American vote as well as Biden. Loses Georgia, maybe Arizona.

Cory Booker was maybe the best general election candidate they had, but he just didn't stand out enough.

 

I was talking about Clinton .

[Harry]

Trump has sent cease and desist letters to the RNC and other major party bodies (from using him or his message in fundraising efforts) and is calling for donations directly to himself and his own political action committee.

[Azeem]

He will come back at some point that I'm sure

[Stan]

7 hours ago, McAzeem said:

He will come back at some point that I'm sure

you make it sound like it's something out of a horror movie...

[Azeem]

They bit someone 

[Harry]

Mob dogs do that.... Further evidence of the Biden crime family track record of corruption and violence.

[Stan]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Mob dogs do that.... Further evidence of the Biden crime family track record of corruption and violence.

huh?

Having a specific type of dog automatically means someone is corrupt and violent?

[Azeem]

I guess they just miss Trump

[Viva la FCB+]

This guy wont fuckoff and die huh. Gotta keep spreading that bullshit and taking credit for things you had nothing to with.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

18 hours ago, Viva la FCB said:

This guy wont fuckoff and die huh. Gotta keep spreading that bullshit and taking credit for things you had nothing to with.

 

What’s he even trying to say? That if there were 4 more years of his presidency no Americans would be vaccinated til he’s out? 

It’s super disheartening seeing how much of a sway he has on his own party though, despite being twice impeached

[Viva la FCB+]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

What’s he even trying to say? That if there were 4 more years of his presidency no Americans would be vaccinated til he’s out? 

It’s super disheartening seeing how much of a sway he has on his own party though, despite being twice impeached

He just rambles all the time with 0 truth behind most of his claims. Doesnt matter as Fox news and his base laps up everything he says or does.

I legitimately think the party is to scared of him. If they lose his base or he breaks off to his own party like he threatens they 100% lose any chance of beating out the dems. Go back in the last 4 years and youll find damning quotes or speeches from nearly every top retrumplican such as Ted Cruz, Mitch MConnell,  Lindsay Graham it goes on. When they all have presidential aspirations and want and love the power that comes with all this they will say or do anything dear chief says. The lack of spines is almost amazing. Fucking Ted Cruz was called out by donald 4 years ago where he publically called his wife ugly among other remarks... all water under the bridge cus power.

[Dr. Gonzo]

17 minutes ago, Viva la FCB said:

He just rambles all the time with 0 truth behind most of his claims. Doesnt matter as Fox news and his base laps up everything he says or does.

I legitimately think the party is to scared of him. If they lose his base or he breaks off to his own party like he threatens they 100% lose any chance of beating out the dems. Go back in the last 4 years and youll find damning quotes or speeches from nearly every top retrumplican such as Ted Cruz, Mitch MConnell,  Lindsay Graham it goes on. When they all have presidential aspirations and want and love the power that comes with all this they will say or do anything dear chief says. The lack of spines is almost amazing. Fucking Ted Cruz was called out by donald 4 years ago where he publically called his wife ugly among other remarks... all water under the bridge cus power.

I mean if they can’t win without moderate support... they should probably just do what most parties do in democracies and adapt to society changing.

[Viva la FCB+]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I mean if they can’t win without moderate support... they should probably just do what most parties do in democracies and adapt to society changing.

See this what I dont understand. His base was at its absolute peak. There is no chance after Jan 6 that his base grows, and even at his peak he still lost the presidency, the house and the senate. Why would they support him still I dont know man. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

15 minutes ago, Viva la FCB said:

See this what I dont understand. His base was at its absolute peak. There is no chance after Jan 6 that his base grows, and even at his peak he still lost the presidency, the house and the senate. Why would they support him still I dont know man. 

Tbf I thought the first election would be the peak of his popularity. But after a disasterclass 4 years, he got more votes than the first time around. So there’s definitely something weird as fuck going on in the American right wing that you and I will probably never understand 

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Tbf I thought the first election would be the peak of his popularity. But after a disasterclass 4 years, he got more votes than the first time around. So there’s definitely something weird as fuck going on in the American right wing that you and I will probably never understand 

While this remains concerning, it can be rationalised to an extent. Polarising, divisive, culture war politics was/is at its peak at the moment and Trump was at the centre of it. An environment like this where supporters of both sides are so scared of the alternative is always going to mobilise voters. Luckily for everyone (even those who wouldn't agree) he mobilised more voters against him than he did in his favour and he also had the most votes against him of any candidate ever (I believe) if you wanted to look at it that way too. 

I'm also sceptical of Trump's ability to build a bigger base over the next 4 years, and of the Republican Party's ability to build back without cutting ties with him and his wing of the party. I think they're currently scared that they'd lose more Trumpian voters than the moderates they'd win back by ditching his agenda. They might be right, but even if Trump broke off and made his own party to run in 2024, he could never win on his own without all of the automatic Republican votes that he'd lose by running as part of a different party.

It's understandable to see why Trump and the party think that sticking together is their best chance of winning the Presidency back, even if in my opinion, unless Biden and co fuck up real, real bad, that's little to no chance at all. It's a huge gamble to stick with Trumpian politics into 2024 and it's asking a lot of those followers to stay as emotionally invested as they are now for four years. Victory isn't impossible on that route I suppose but it seems better from their point of view to rip the band aid off and start to win back both moderate voters and some of those that Trump takes with him in time to have a foundation for 2024.